Archived operational intelligence briefing
The conflict in Ukraine continues with significant military activity and strategic developments. Russian forces maintain operational tempo, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with confirmed captures of Ivanivka, Zahryzove, Novyi Trud, and Lozova. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. In Vremivka, Russian forces have reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka. Following the liberation of Zahryzove in the Kharkiv region, Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Bohuslavka, located approximately 3 kilometers away.
Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian equipment and personnel with drones, while also highlighting the need for more advanced electronic warfare capabilities to counter Russian drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a ZALA UAV assisting in the destruction of a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system. Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. New drone threats are reported, with drones approaching from the Tendra Spit towards Odesa/Pivdenne. Mykolaiv Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks, and air raid alerts have been issued in the region due to the threat of "Shahed" drones. Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa Oblast), and drones are also reported in Mykolaiv Oblast, approaching from the south. Two drones are reported near Kobleve, and two more are moving from the Tendra Spit towards Ochakiv. Enemy drones are reportedly heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from the south, with a call for residents of Ochakiv to take shelter. Odesa Oblast is also under threat of enemy drone attacks. Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of "first drones shot down" in the Mykolaiv region. Three drones are confirmed to be moving through Kutsurub in a northerly direction. One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise. One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area. Two drones are circling near the Kosa area. One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported. One drone is confirmed to be circling near Nechaiane, with previous drones in the area either shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare. One drone is confirmed near Ochakiv. One drone is reported in the Nechaiane area, with the course shifting towards Odesa Oblast. A group of drones is moving south of Mykolaiv towards the city, with a call for residents to take shelter. Two new drones are approaching Velyka Korenykha, with potential for anti-drone operations to be heard in the city. One drone is still circling west of Mykolaiv. Explosions were heard again in Mykolaiv. A multi-story building in Mykolaiv was on fire, with the roof damaged and windows broken due to a drone attack. The fire has now been put out, but a new fire has been reported. A new report indicates damage to a house in Mykolaiv from a "Shahed" drone attack, with no significant damage and ongoing assessment of the surrounding area. Russian drones launched from the territory of Crimea. Over 10 drones were reportedly detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region, causing damage to railway infrastructure and leading to train delays. Two civilians were injured in the Krasnogvardeisky district of the Belgorod region due to a Ukrainian drone attack. Damage was reported to power lines and houses in several villages. Several villages in the Grayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack. Ukrainian forces report a Russian drone strike on the central market in Nikopol, causing damage and injuring 8 civilians. Ukrainian forces report shooting down two more Russian drones over the Belgorod region. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian Baba Yaga drone. A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction. Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk. Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle in the Kharkiv region. A Russian attack drone unit successfully eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area in the Kharkiv region. Russian forces reportedly used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk. Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area. Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest. Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade are reported to have destroyed enemy personnel and a truck in the Kharkiv region. Operators of drones from the BARS-3 "Rodina" unit destroyed a Polish self-propelled gun "Krab" on the Kupyansk front. The drone identified the target, and artillery subsequently destroyed it. Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. A video shows drone footage of a Russian soldier loading a modified drone with grenades and deploying it.
The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Two civilians were injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack. Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region, resulting in casualties. Allegations of war crimes committed by Ukrainian forces in Selydove have surfaced, adding another layer of complexity to the humanitarian crisis. A video interview with a resident of Selydove alleges that Ukrainian forces killed a civilian woman. The video is presented as part of a "tribunal" for crimes of "Ukrainian Neo-Nazis," aligning with Russian narratives. The testimony describes Ukrainian soldiers taking refuge in a basement and a subsequent shooting incident. The resident claims to have witnessed the event through binoculars. The video includes footage of the resident pointing out the location of the alleged incident.
The US continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, with another package expected to be announced soon, reportedly worth $1.25 billion. The package will include munitions, Stinger man-portable air defense systems, and rockets for HAWK and NASAMS air defense systems. The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The White House claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense. Internal US discussions reveal a complex strategic dilemma regarding the war in Ukraine, with concerns about Russian nuclear escalation influencing their approach to military aid and support for Ukraine.
Diplomatic efforts continue, with Ukrainian President Zelensky expressing condolences to Azerbaijan regarding the plane crash and calling for international pressure on Russia to establish the truth. Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine. The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, threatened to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine in response to Ukraine's refusal to transit Russian gas to Europe after 2024. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established contact with the new Syrian government and expressed readiness to restore diplomatic relations. Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster and that Kyiv will pay for this "adventure" with territorial losses and the presence of foreign troops. A Russian tanker, "Eagle S," detained in the Baltic Sea for allegedly damaging the Estlink-2 cable, was reportedly carrying espionage equipment used to track NATO ships and aircraft. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that NATO will increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea due to "possible sabotage against underwater cables."
The involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side adds complexity to the conflict, with reports of high casualties and suicides among them.
The strategic landscape is further complicated by the potential Russia-Iran pact, ongoing US military aid to Ukraine, and internal political developments in Georgia and Belarus.
The reported deployment of new Russian self-propelled artillery units with extended range and the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment underscore the ongoing arms race and the evolving nature of the conflict.
The Ukrainian military continues to demonstrate resilience, with reports of successful defensive actions and the use of drones to target Russian forces. However, the need for continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry and electronic warfare capabilities, remains critical.
The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.
Video and photographic evidence confirm the liberation of Lozova by Russian forces, with the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Guards Tank Army raising the Russian flag in the center of the village.
A report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development indicates a record number of homeless people in the country.
A fundraising campaign for Russian paratroopers is ongoing.
There are reports suggesting that Kyiv may be preparing provocations at nuclear facilities in Ukraine or at Russian nuclear power plants. This is based on news reports and intelligence data, including information about Ukrainian delegations visiting a US national laboratory in Idaho for a course on nuclear forensics.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction. Ukrainian sabotage groups are setting fire to post offices in Ukraine, reportedly used for mobilization purposes. Over 135,000 applications for registration have been received from owners of channels and social media pages with an audience exceeding 10,000 users. Roskomnadzor has already registered over 49,000 such pages. Almost half (47%) of surveyed Russians were able to save money from their salaries in the past year. Popular savings goals include vacations and travel (24%), home repairs (24%), gifts for loved ones and medical treatment (19% each), and investments (13%). A court case is underway regarding the theft of Anatoly Chubais' property by his former business partners. Chubais has reportedly reduced his claims by 5 million rubles but maintains his demand for criminal prosecution of the accused. Reports indicate that equipment from Japan and Germany is being used in the production of the "Oreshnik" missile. A Russian propaganda video is circulating, depicting the Russian air defense shooting down Santa Claus over the Kremlin. Reports that the Prime Minister of Denmark has stocked up on canned goods due to fears of a Russian attack. A video shows the aftermath of a plane crash in an arid field, with emergency responders present. A passenger claims survival due to divine intervention, while speculation arises about potential financial influence on the investigation. An image allegedly depicts the aftermath of a plane crash in Kazakhstan, with claims that the plane was shot down by the "Akhmat" unit. This claim should be treated with caution and requires further verification. Reports of increased security at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport. Reports that Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights to several Russian cities for safety reasons. Azerbaijan Airlines states that the preliminary cause of the plane crash near Aktau was "physical and technical external impact." The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for a fair investigation into the plane crash in Kazakhstan, suggesting possible damage from a Russian anti-aircraft system. Flydubai has canceled flights from Sochi and Minvod to Dubai from December 28 to January 5, citing security threats. The Minister of Digital Development and Transport of Azerbaijan, Rashad Nabiyev, commented on the plane crash near Aktau, stating that the preliminary cause was "external interference" and that the debris and witness accounts support this theory. Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan are set to join BRICS as partner countries starting January 1, 2025. Four additional countries have also been invited. Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one. A Ukrainian fighter from the "Wolves of Da Vinci" battalion called for the preparation of Ukrainian teenagers for war, stating that "18-year-olds and 15-year-olds should realize that they will most likely have to fight." He advocated for changes in the education system to prepare them for "tough and brutal" warfare. However, the Office of the President of Ukraine has so far rejected US proposals to lower the mobilization age to 18. According to the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), Russia has approximately 1,400 long-range missiles in its arsenal, including around 350 "Kalibr" cruise missiles, 500 "Oniks" missiles, over 50 "Kinzhal" missiles, over 130 "Iskander" missiles, and over 400 "Kh-101," "Kh-55," and "Kh-35" missiles. The HUR representative, Andrii Yusov, noted that Russia is now paying more attention to planning and reconnaissance and is not operating as indiscriminately as it did in the early stages of the full-scale invasion. He also stated that Russia is capable of producing 120-150 "Iskander," "Kalibr," and "Kh-101" missiles per month. Over 79% of applicants to Russian vocational schools and 84% of their parents believe the prestige of such education has increased in recent years. This is partly attributed to the "Professionalitet" project. The Russian Minister of Education reported an increase in college graduate employment from 58% to 81% over four years.
The overall situation remains highly volatile, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.
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