Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 28, 2024, 12:35 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

Mykolaiv Region:
- A multi-story building in Mykolaiv caught fire due to a drone attack.
- Ukrainian forces report a Russian drone strike on the central market in Nikopol, injuring 8 civilians.
- Ukrainian air defenses shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Ukrainian air defenses may be operating in Mykolaiv Oblast against a suspected reconnaissance drone.
- A Lancet and a Zala drone were reported moving from the direction of Velyka Korenivka towards the Zavodskyi district of Mykolaiv.
Chernihiv Region:
- Drone movement has been detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions, specifically near Nizhyn.
- Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements in Chernihiv Oblast to the west.
Voronezh Region:
- Over 10 drones were reportedly detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh.
Belgorod Region:
- Two civilians were injured in the Krasnogvardeisky district due to a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Several villages in the Grayvoron district were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Ukrainian forces report shooting down two more Russian drones over the Belgorod region.
Rostov Oblast:
- 17 Ukrainian drones were destroyed and suppressed overnight above Rostov Oblast.
- During the night, 4 more UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare in the Millerovsky and Tarasovsky districts.
Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
- Ukrainian forces are reportedly using around 100 drones per day in this area.
Donetsk Oblast:
- An attack by a Ukrainian drone on the Makeevsky Machine-Building Plant in the Donetsk People's Republic was prevented.
- In Horlivka, a man was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
- A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria.
Kursk Region:
- Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
- Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
- Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region.
Kharkiv Region:
- Increased drone activity was reported in the Kharkiv region.
- Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
- A Russian attack drone unit successfully eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area in the Kharkiv region.
- Ukrainian forces were reportedly killed by Russian drones near Kharkiv.
- Russian forces reportedly used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk.
- Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
- Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
- Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade are reported to have destroyed enemy personnel and a truck in the Kharkiv region.
- Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
- In the Kupyansk area, fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
- FPV of the Third Assault Brigade destroys enemy weapons, shelters, and warehouses in the Kharkiv direction.
- Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles.
- Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- Increased drone activity in Kharkiv and Poltava regions, with drones moving west/southwest. New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of drones in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.
Other Regions:
- Ukrainian forces report shooting down 20 out of 31 drones launched by Russia overnight.
- Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region.
- Air raid alerts issued for multiple regions.
- Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
- Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU reported that Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones.
- Reports of widespread drone activity across multiple regions.
- Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs near Kursk.
- Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
- Ukrainian forces equipped with two shotguns shot down Russian Mavik drones.
- Marines used UAVs to locate and eliminate a Baba Yaga-type heavy drone in the Kakhovka direction.
- "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.
- Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
- Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- A new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with support of management for optical fiber started to be used in the zone of special military operation.
- Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
- The "ACHILLES" drone unit, originally a company-sized element of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade, has expanded to a battalion and is reportedly hitting over 2000 targets per month.
- Russian forces are reportedly using "Upyr" kamikaze drones to target Ukrainian equipment, strongholds, and personnel.
- Russian forces are reportedly using "Tatsinsky Raider" drones in their operations.
Orlov Region:
- 3 Storm Shadow missiles attacked a military facility in the Orlov region on Thursday, killing 2 soldiers and injuring 7.
- Satellite images show a Russian military facility in the Orlov region that was hit by SS missiles on December 26th.
Volgograd Oblast:
- Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Korobkovsky Gas Processing Plant with drones, damaging power lines.
Moscow Oblast:
- An explosion at a railway station in Voskresensk destroyed Russian freight cars used for military logistics.
Crimea:
- A state of emergency was declared due to an oil spill in the Black Sea.

Ground Operations

Donetsk Oblast

Two civilians were injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area.
Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.
Russian electronic warfare systems in the DPR have reportedly disrupted nearly 140 Ukrainian air attacks in the past week.
Kurakhove:
- Russian forces maintain control of approximately 80% of the city.
- Ukrainian withdrawal was reported.
- A bridge over the Volchya River was destroyed.
- Clashes near multiple settlements.
- Airstrikes at multiple settlements.
- Forest belt occupation south of Zelenivka.
- High-intensity battles near multiple settlements.
- Drone and sniper activity.
- Positional fighting in the Kurakhove-Dalnee area.
- Communications repeater destruction.
- Advance towards Shevchenko.
- Loss of positions was reported by Ukrainian forces.
- Intense clashes are ongoing near several settlements, with Russian forces making gains, including the liberation of Elizavetovka.
- Ongoing battles near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces advanced more than 1km from Dalnee.
- Russian forces are advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko.
- Russian assault units advanced up to 1.5 km west of the city.
- Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Spear Group" of the 118th Territorial Defense Brigade, reportedly repelled a Russian assault using drones to target and destroy Russian armored vehicles in the Siversk direction.
- Heavy fighting continues in the Kurakhove area.
- Russian forces report fierce battles near Peschanoe and Volchye, with attempts to advance towards Chunishino and Myrolyubivka.
- Ukrainian forces report heavy fighting in Lysovka, with Russian forces advancing to the center of the settlement.
- Ukrainian forces report destroying a reserve of the so-called "Caucasian Legion" that was advancing on armored vehicles to reinforce Ukrainian units in Lysovka.
- Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent Russian advances near Peschanoe, Volchye, and Solyonoe at any cost, using all available means of destruction and reserves.
- The situation is similar south of Kurakhove, near Novovasylivka and Novoelizavetivka, where a breakthrough by Russian forces threatens to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region and encircle Kurakhove from the west.
- Ukrainian forces continue to withdraw from the Kurakhove direction, with units of the 119th Territorial Defense Brigade being withdrawn to the rear due to heavy losses.
- Attack FPV drone teams of the Yug Group of Forces eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position of the AFU in Kurakhove direction.
- Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy mortar with an FPV drone.
Vremivka Direction:
- Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.
- Ukrainian forces are reportedly encircled in Makarivka.
- Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
- A bridge over the Mokri Yaly river was destroyed.
- Russian forces reportedly liberated Makarivka.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve.
- Russian forces are reportedly attacking Velyka Novosilka from both sides.
- Occupation authorities in Huliaipole are concerned about the situation.
- Reports of Ukrainian forces being encircled in Makarivka are officially denied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- The situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult.
- Russian forces have successfully severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka.

Other Key Developments from December 27-28, 2024

US Aid: President Biden has directed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine, with another package expected to be announced soon, reportedly worth $1.25 billion.
F-16: The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
North Korean Soldiers: Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone. Some are reportedly committing suicide. Ukrainian forces report that North Korean soldiers have been rotated out of the Kursk region and replaced with Russian soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelensky, in a video message, stated that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fighting in the Kursk region and are suffering heavy losses.
New Russian Artillery: New Russian self-propelled artillery systems are reportedly being deployed, capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers.
Azerbaijan-Russia Conflict: Public conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia over the Baku-Grozny flight is escalating. Azerbaijan is reportedly changing rules for Russian citizens' stays, potentially in response to Russian restrictions on foreigners.
Ukrainian forces, with the help of neighboring units, repelled one of the largest recent assaults in the Bakhmut direction near Klishchiivka, destroying 6 T-72 tanks and 6 BMP-2s, and damaging one tank.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU reported that Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
Reports of Ukrainian citizens attempting to flee the country by posing as part of a funeral procession.
Ukrainian forces equipped with two shotguns shot down Russian Mavik drones.
Marines used UAVs to locate and eliminate a Baba Yaga-type heavy drone in the Kakhovka direction. During reconnaissance, a UAV operator of the Northern Fleet Marines detected the drone, directed his drone on a suitable trajectory, and rammed into it.
The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, with the help of donations, shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance UAV wrapped in reinforced tape.
"Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. The result was three tanks, including two T-72s, and four BMPs. The State Border Guard Service unit used a combined fire attack of remote mines, "Vampire" attack UAVs, and FPV drones.
3 Storm Shadow missiles attacked a military facility in the Orlov region on Thursday, killing 2 soldiers and injuring 7.
Ukrainian forces struck a fortified military facility of the Russian Armed Forces in the Oryol region. As a result of the strike, a storage, maintenance, and repair facility for "Shahed" kamikaze drones, consisting of several reinforced concrete shelters, was destroyed. This combat operation significantly reduced the enemy's capability to conduct air raids using kamikaze drones against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. The Armed Forces of Ukraine possess detailed intelligence on Russian military objects. Efforts to identify and neutralize targets on the aggressor's territory will continue.
Satellite images show a Russian military facility in the Orlov region that was hit by SS missiles on December 26th. The facility appears to have 14 square bunkers/underground warehouses connected by tunnels. Each bunker is estimated to be approximately 70x70 meters. A road to the facility, marked in blue, was additionally protected by earthen embankments.
Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
Russian forces are storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka.
High-intensity battles are ongoing near Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novovasylivka, Chumatske, Novyy Trud, Novotroyitske, Novoyelyzavetivka, Novoolenivka, Novopustynka, and Vozdvyzhenka.
Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino, reaching its outskirts and liberating Veselyi Gai.
Russian forces have effectively out on the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Russian DRGs are operating in Pokrovsk itself.
Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was trained and equipped by France. These forces were intended for the anticipated winter offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, due to the rapidly evolving situation south of Krasnoarmiisk, the Ukrainian command has been forced to deploy these reserves, which had been accumulated for offensive operations.
Pokrovsk is completely without power.
Fighters of the 155th Brigade are being transferred from the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). The unit was trained and equipped by France and was intended for the expected winter offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian command was forced to use these reserves, which had been accumulated for offensive operations, due to the rapidly developing situation south of Krasnoarmiisk.
Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
Russian military expert Andrey Marochko claims that Russian forces repelled nearly 2,000 Ukrainian counterattacks in the LPR in 2024, with Ukrainian losses nearing 400,000.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that conscripts from the autumn draft were not sent to the special operation zone or to units in the DPR, LPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a summary of operations to counter a Ukrainian attempt to invade the Kursk region, claiming significant Ukrainian losses.
Reports suggest that the US is gaining access to military facilities in Papua New Guinea in exchange for financial aid, similar to arrangements with the Philippines.
Reports of a potential Turkish offensive against Kurdish forces in Rojava, with the US allegedly not providing guarantees to the Kurds.
US Senator Mike Lee calls for an end to US aid to Ukraine, alleging widespread money laundering.
The Taliban is reportedly no longer considered a terrorist organization in Russia.
Reports of a priest accused of attacking women being sent to the front lines in Ukraine.
Reports of a "deadly game" involving self-strangulation gaining popularity among teenagers on social media.
A Russian government official announced the completion of the first kilometer of a new metro tunnel in Nizhny Novgorod.
The head of the WHO reportedly narrowly escaped an Israeli airstrike on an airport in Sana'a, Yemen.
Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces are using the operation in the Kursk region to justify the "sale" of Donbas, suggesting that the operation is weakening Ukrainian defenses elsewhere.
Reports of a discussion between a Russian military blogger and a commander about ongoing operations near the Kursk region, with the commander claiming that Russian forces are advancing and pushing the front line closer to the border.

Changes to the Situation

Escalation of Drone Warfare: The reported 19-fold increase in Ukrainian drone supplies and the expansion of the "ACHILLES" drone unit to a battalion with claims of hitting over 2,000 targets per month signify a major escalation in drone warfare. This demonstrates Ukraine's increasing reliance on and proficiency in drone technology.
Intensification of Fighting in Kurakhove: The continued withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kurakhove direction, coupled with reports of heavy losses and the destruction of key infrastructure, indicates an intensification of fighting in this area. Russian forces are making significant gains, and the strategic importance of Kurakhove is diminishing for Ukrainian forces.
Potential Shift in US Strategy in the Pacific: The reported US agreement with Papua New Guinea, granting access to military facilities in exchange for financial aid, suggests a potential shift in US strategy in the Pacific region. This move could be aimed at countering growing Chinese influence and securing strategic locations for US military operations.
Growing Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia: Azerbaijan's decision to change rules for Russian citizens' stays, possibly in retaliation for Russian restrictions, signals growing tensions between the two countries. This could have implications for regional stability and potentially impact the conflict in Ukraine.
Increased Russian Military Presence in Kursk Region: The detailed report from the Russian Ministry of Defense on operations in the Kursk region, along with claims of significant Ukrainian losses, indicates an increased Russian military presence and activity in the area. This suggests that Russia is prioritizing the defense of this region and may be planning further operations.
Propaganda and Disinformation: The reports of fake videos featuring Russian politician Alexander Khinshtein, along with claims that Ukraine is "selling" Donbas, highlight the ongoing information war and the use of propaganda by both sides. This underscores the need for caution when evaluating information from unofficial sources.
Potential Energy Crisis in Europe: The discussion about Ukraine's reliance on electricity imports from neighboring countries, coupled with reports of low gas reserves in Europe, suggests a potential energy crisis that could impact the conflict. This could further strain relations between European countries and potentially affect their ability to support Ukraine.
Geopolitical Realignments: Russia's removal of the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations signals a significant geopolitical shift, potentially leading to closer ties between Russia and the Taliban-led Afghanistan.

Updated Situation - December 28, 2024, 12:35 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine continues with high intensity, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces maintain operational tempo, making gains in Kurakhove and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges, with reports of heavy losses, withdrawals, and low morale in some areas. Drone warfare has escalated significantly, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukraine has significantly increased its drone capabilities, while Russia continues to innovate, reportedly integrating AI into its drones.

The humanitarian situation remains dire, with ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure and energy facilities. The potential for a wider energy crisis in Europe looms, adding another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the US potentially expanding its military presence in the Pacific and tensions rising between Azerbaijan and Russia. The information war continues unabated, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to shape narratives and influence public opinion. Russia's recognition of the Taliban adds another dimension to the global geopolitical landscape.

The Ukrainian military continues to resist, but the need for sustained international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry, drones, and financial aid, is more critical than ever. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and unpredictable developments in the coming days and weeks. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities. The strategic landscape is increasingly complex, with shifting alliances, growing regional tensions, and the weaponization of energy adding to the volatility of the situation.

Situation Report