Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 28, 2024, 11:35 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

Mykolaiv Region:
- A multi-story building in Mykolaiv caught fire due to a drone attack.
- Ukrainian forces report a Russian drone strike on the central market in Nikopol, injuring 8 civilians.
- Ukrainian air defenses shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Ukrainian air defenses may be operating in Mykolaiv Oblast against a suspected reconnaissance drone.
- A Lancet and a Zala drone were reported moving from the direction of Velyka Korenivka towards the Zavodskyi district of Mykolaiv.
Chernihiv Region:
- Drone movement has been detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions, specifically near Nizhyn.
- Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements in Chernihiv Oblast to the west.
Voronezh Region:
- Over 10 drones were reportedly detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh.
Belgorod Region:
- Two civilians were injured in the Krasnogvardeisky district due to a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Several villages in the Grayvoron district were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
Rostov Oblast:
- 17 Ukrainian drones were destroyed and suppressed overnight above Rostov Oblast.
Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
- Ukrainian forces are reportedly using around 100 drones per day in this area.
Donetsk Oblast:
- An attack by a Ukrainian drone on the Makeevsky Machine-Building Plant in the Donetsk People's Republic was prevented.
- In Horlivka, a man was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
Kursk Region:
- Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Kharkiv Region:
- Increased drone activity was reported in the Kharkiv region.
- Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
Other Regions:
- Ukrainian forces report shooting down 20 out of 31 drones launched by Russia overnight.
- Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region.
- Air raid alerts issued for multiple regions.
- Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
- Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU reported that Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones.
- Reports of widespread drone activity across multiple regions.
- Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs near Kursk.
- Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
- Ukrainian forces equipped with two shotguns shot down Russian Mavik drones.
- Marines used UAVs to locate and eliminate a Baba Yaga-type heavy drone in the Kakhovka direction.
- "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.
Orlov Region:
- 3 Storm Shadow missiles attacked a military facility in the Orlov region on Thursday, killing 2 soldiers and injuring 7.
- Satellite images show a Russian military facility in the Orlov region that was hit by SS missiles on December 26th.
Pokrovsk:
- Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.

Ground Operations

Donetsk Oblast

Two civilians were injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area.
Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.
Russian electronic warfare systems in the DPR have reportedly disrupted nearly 140 Ukrainian air attacks in the past week.
Kurakhove:
- Russian forces maintain control of approximately 80% of the city.
- Ukrainian withdrawal was reported.
- A bridge over the Volchya River was destroyed.
- Clashes near multiple settlements.
- Airstrikes at multiple settlements.
- Forest belt occupation south of Zelenivka.
- High-intensity battles near multiple settlements.
- Drone and sniper activity.
- Positional fighting in the Kurakhove-Dalnee area.
- Communications repeater destruction.
- Advance towards Shevchenko.
- Loss of positions was reported by Ukrainian forces.
- Intense clashes are ongoing near several settlements, with Russian forces making gains, including the liberation of Elizavetovka.
- Ongoing battles near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces advanced more than 1km from Dalnee.
- Russian forces are advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko.
- Russian assault units advanced up to 1.5 km west of the city.
- Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Spear Group" of the 118th Territorial Defense Brigade, reportedly repelled a Russian assault using drones to target and destroy Russian armored vehicles in the Siversk direction.
- Heavy fighting continues in the Kurakhove area.
Vremivka Direction:
- Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.
- Ukrainian forces are reportedly encircled in Makarivka.
- Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
- A bridge over the Mokri Yaly river was destroyed.
- Russian forces reportedly liberated Makarivka.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve.
- Russian forces are reportedly attacking Velyka Novosilka from both sides.
- Occupation authorities in Huliaipole are concerned about the situation.
- Reports of Ukrainian forces being encircled in Makarivka are officially denied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- The situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult.
- Russian forces have successfully severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka.

Other Key Developments from December 27-28, 2024

US Aid: President Biden has directed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine, with another package expected to be announced soon, reportedly worth $1.25 billion.
F-16: The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
North Korean Soldiers: Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone.
New Russian Artillery: New Russian self-propelled artillery systems are reportedly being deployed, capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers.
Azerbaijan-Russia Conflict: Public conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia over the Baku-Grozny flight is escalating.
Ukrainian forces, with the help of neighboring units, repelled one of the largest recent assaults in the Bakhmut direction near Klishchiivka, destroying 6 T-72 tanks and 6 BMP-2s, and damaging one tank.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU reported that Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
Reports of Ukrainian citizens attempting to flee the country by posing as part of a funeral procession.
Heavy fighting continues in the Kurakhove area. Russian forces report fierce battles near Peschanoe and Volchye, with attempts to advance towards Chunishino and Myrolyubivka. Ukrainian forces report heavy fighting in Lysovka, with Russian forces advancing to the center of the settlement. Ukrainian forces also report destroying a reserve of the so-called "Caucasian Legion" that was advancing on armored vehicles to reinforce Ukrainian units in Lysovka. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent Russian advances near Peschanoe, Volchye, and Solyonoe at any cost, using all available means of destruction and reserves. The situation is similar south of Kurakhove, near Novovasylivka and Novoelizavetivka, where a breakthrough by Russian forces threatens to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region and encircle Kurakhove from the west.
Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone. Some are reportedly committing suicide. Ukrainian forces report that North Korean soldiers have been rotated out of the Kursk region and replaced with Russian soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelensky, in a video message, stated that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fighting in the Kursk region and are suffering heavy losses.
Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was trained and equipped by France. These forces were intended for the anticipated winter offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, due to the rapidly evolving situation south of Krasnoarmiisk, the Ukrainian command has been forced to deploy these reserves, which had been accumulated for offensive operations.
Ukrainian forces equipped with two shotguns shot down Russian Mavik drones.
Marines used UAVs to locate and eliminate a Baba Yaga-type heavy drone in the Kakhovka direction. During reconnaissance, a UAV operator of the Northern Fleet Marines detected the drone, directed his drone on a suitable trajectory, and rammed into it.
The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, with the help of donations, shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance UAV wrapped in reinforced tape.
"Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. The result was three tanks, including two T-72s, and four BMPs. The State Border Guard Service unit used a combined fire attack of remote mines, "Vampire" attack UAVs, and FPV drones.
3 Storm Shadow missiles attacked a military facility in the Orlov region on Thursday, killing 2 soldiers and injuring 7.
Ukrainian forces struck a fortified military facility of the Russian Armed Forces in the Oryol region. As a result of the strike, a storage, maintenance, and repair facility for "Shahed" kamikaze drones, consisting of several reinforced concrete shelters, was destroyed. This combat operation significantly reduced the enemy's capability to conduct air raids using kamikaze drones against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. The Armed Forces of Ukraine possess detailed intelligence on Russian military objects. Efforts to identify and neutralize targets on the aggressor's territory will continue.
Satellite images show a Russian military facility in the Orlov region that was hit by SS missiles on December 26th. The facility appears to have 14 square bunkers/underground warehouses connected by tunnels. Each bunker is estimated to be approximately 70x70 meters. A road to the facility, marked in blue, was additionally protected by earthen embankments.
Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
Russian forces are storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka.
High-intensity battles are ongoing near Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novovasylivka, Chumatske, Novyy Trud, Novotroyitske, Novoyelyzavetivka, Novoolenivka, Novopustynka, and Vozdvyzhenka.
Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino, reaching its outskirts and liberating Veselyi Gai.
Russian forces have effectively out on the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Russian DRGs are operating in Pokrovsk itself.
Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was trained and equipped by France. These forces were intended for the anticipated winter offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, due to the rapidly evolving situation south of Krasnoarmiisk, the Ukrainian command has been forced to deploy these reserves, which had been accumulated for offensive operations.
Pokrovsk is completely without power.
Fighters of the 155th Brigade are being transferred from the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). The unit was trained and equipped by France and was intended for the expected winter offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian command was forced to use these reserves, which had been accumulated for offensive operations, due to the rapidly developing situation south of Krasnoarmiisk.
Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.

Updated Situation - December 28, 2024, 11:35 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine continues with significant military activity and strategic developments. Russian forces maintain operational tempo, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. In Vremivka, Russian forces have reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are withdrawing towards the main defense line near the Dnipro River.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian equipment and personnel with drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a ZALA UAV assisting in the destruction of a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, highlighting Russia's use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting. A Ukrainian officer from the "Rubezh" brigade shared accounts of intense fighting, underscoring the continued use of drones and the resilience of Russian troops who reportedly continue to advance even after sustaining severe injuries. Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.

The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Reports indicate damage to several infrastructure facilities in the Nikopol district.

The US continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, with another package expected to be announced soon, reportedly worth $1.25 billion. The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side adds complexity to the conflict, with reports of high casualties and suicides among them.

The strategic landscape is further complicated by the potential Russia-Iran pact, ongoing US military aid to Ukraine, and internal political developments in Georgia and Belarus.

The reported deployment of new Russian self-propelled artillery units with extended range and the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment underscore the ongoing arms race and the evolving nature of the conflict.

The Ukrainian military continues to demonstrate resilience, with reports of successful defensive actions and the use of drones to target Russian forces. However, the need for continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry and electronic warfare capabilities, remains critical.

The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.

New Information Summary from the Latest Messages

Military:
- Ukrainian forces are training with live ammunition, focusing on close-quarters combat and tactical movement. The training involves the use of assault rifles and emphasizes the importance of communication and coordination between soldiers. The training is conducted by the 17th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade.
- Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Footage from a Ukrainian drone conducting reconnaissance over a snowy, rural area, possibly identifying targets or monitoring enemy movements.
- Footage from a Ukrainian drone conducting reconnaissance over an open area with vehicle tracks, possibly monitoring enemy movements or identifying targets.
- Footage from a Ukrainian drone conducting reconnaissance over a snowy area, with a focus on a possible fortified position near a river.
- Video shows a group of Russian soldiers from the 5th Tank Brigade, likely a reconnaissance unit, delivering a New Year's message from a combat zone.
- Russian military confirms damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including two thermal power plants, one hydroelectric power plant, and several key substations, following a missile and drone attack on December 25th.
Geopolitical:
- The Taliban is reportedly no longer considered a terrorist organization in Russia.
- A Russian official announced that the Taliban has been removed from the list of banned terrorist organizations in Russia.
- Azerbaijan is reportedly planning to change the rules of stay for Russian citizens in the near future.
- US Senator Mike Lee calls for an end to US aid to Ukraine, alleging widespread money laundering.
Other:
- Reports of a man setting off fireworks inside a shopping mall in the Russian city of Shakhty. The man claimed he was ordered to do so by an FSB officer.
- Reports of a "deadly game" gaining popularity among teenagers on social media, involving temporary self-strangulation to achieve a state of euphoria. The game has reportedly resulted in the deaths of 82 children in the US.
- A group of deputies from the "A Just Russia — For Truth" faction will introduce a bill to the State Duma proposing a one-time payment of 10,000 rubles to elderly citizens over 70 living in areas without central heating to purchase fuel.
- Reports of a priest accused of attacking women being sent to the front lines in Ukraine.
- The first kilometer of a new metro tunnel has been completed in Nizhny Novgorod.

Situation Report