Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 28, 2024, 01:05 UTC

Key Military Developments

Drone Warfare

• Mykolaiv Region:
  • Ukrainian air defense systems actively engaged Russian drones. Reports indicate "first drones shot down" in the region.
  • One drone confirmed circling near Nechaiane, with previous drones in the area either shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare.
  • One drone confirmed near Ochakiv.
  • One drone reported in the Nechaiane area, with the course shifting towards Odesa Oblast.
  • Air raid alerts were in effect for Mykolaiv due to the ongoing drone threat, but have since been lifted.
  • Explosions reported in Mykolaiv amidst the drone attack.
  • A group of drones moving south of Mykolaiv towards the city, with a call for residents to take shelter.
  • Two new drones approaching Velyka Korenykha, with potential for anti-drone operations to be heard in the city.
  • One drone still circling west of Mykolaiv.
  • Explosions heard again in Mykolaiv.
  • A multi-story building in Mykolaiv was on fire due to a drone attack, with the roof damaged and windows broken. The fire has been extinguished, and no casualties are reported. Damage was also reported in the Inhulskyi district.
  • Russian drones launched from the territory of Crimea.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Two civilians injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
  • Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area, with reports of a Russian soldier targeted by Ukrainian forces near the 12th microdistrict. Russian forces reportedly advancing towards the northern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region, resulting in casualties.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.
• Voronezh Region:
  • Over 10 drones were reportedly detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region. Debris from the downed drones caused damage to railway infrastructure, leading to train delays.
• Belgorod Region:
  • Two civilians were injured in the Krasnogvardeisky district due to a Ukrainian drone attack. Damage was reported to power lines and houses in several villages.

Geopolitical Developments

• United States:
  • A report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development indicates a record number of homeless people, with over 771,000 on the streets in January 2024, compared to over 650,000 in January 2023.
  • The US administration expects to reach the ceiling of the US national debt between January 14 and 23. Authorities will be forced to take emergency measures to prevent default, according to a letter from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
  • Internal US discussions reveal a complex strategic dilemma regarding the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration is reportedly grappling with the threat of Russian nuclear escalation, influencing their approach to military aid and support for Ukraine.
• Humanitarian Aid: American and Moscow communists collaborating to deliver humanitarian aid to the Donbas region.
• Slovakia: Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster and that Kyiv will pay for this "adventure" with territorial losses and the presence of foreign troops. Slovakia has also expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine.
• Baltic Sea: A Russian tanker, "Eagle S," detained in the Baltic Sea for allegedly damaging the Estlink-2 cable, was reportedly carrying espionage equipment used to track NATO ships and aircraft.
• Israel: The Israeli military reportedly used a US-supplied THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system to intercept a ballistic missile launched from Yemen.

Other Developments

• Fundraising:
  • Ongoing fundraising campaign for Russian paratroopers, with appeals for support from businesses and ordinary citizens. The campaign faces challenges due to the holiday season. Organizers emphasize the need for Mavic drones, describing them as essential in current offensive operations.
• Nuclear Provocations: Reports suggest Kyiv may be preparing provocations at nuclear facilities in Ukraine or at Russian nuclear power plants. This is based on news reports and intelligence data, including information about Ukrainian delegations visiting a US national laboratory in Idaho for a course on nuclear forensics.
• Sabotage: Ukrainian sabotage groups are setting fire to post offices in Ukraine, reportedly used for mobilization purposes.
• Media Registration: Over 135,000 applications for registration have been received from owners of channels and social media pages with an audience exceeding 10,000 users. Roskomnadzor has already registered over 49,000 such pages.
• Financial Savings: Almost half (47%) of surveyed Russians were able to save money from their salaries in the past year. Popular savings goals include vacations and travel (24%), home repairs (24%), gifts for loved ones and medical treatment (19% each), and investments (13%).

Analysis of Changes

Drone Activity

• Continued reports of drone activity in the Mykolaiv region, despite Ukrainian air defenses successfully engaging some drones, demonstrate the persistent threat posed by Russian drone operations. The all-clear signal indicates a temporary reduction in the immediate threat, but the situation remains volatile.
• The shifting course of one drone towards Odesa Oblast suggests a potential expansion of the drone attacks beyond Mykolaiv.
• New reports of drones approaching Mykolaiv from the south and near Velyka Korenykha indicate an intensification of the drone attack on the city.
• A multi-story building was on fire in Mykolaiv due to a drone attack, indicating damage to civilian infrastructure. The fire is now extinguished, highlighting the effectiveness of emergency response but also the continued risk to civilian areas.
• Russian drones launched from Crimea, confirming the origin of the attacks.
• The reported destruction of over 10 drones in the Voronezh region, along with damage to railway infrastructure, suggests an escalation in drone attacks targeting Russian territory. This is a significant development, indicating a potential expansion of the conflict zone and highlighting the vulnerability of Russian infrastructure.
• The reported drone attacks in the Belgorod region, resulting in civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, further demonstrate the expanding scope of the conflict and the increasing threat to Russian territories.

Military Situation in Donetsk Oblast

• The reported targeting of a Russian soldier near Dzerzhinsk and continued fighting in the area indicate ongoing hostilities near Horlivka.
• The reported advance of Russian forces towards the northern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk suggests a gradual shift in the frontline in this area.
• Reported Ukrainian attacks on populated areas in the Donetsk region, resulting in casualties, highlight the continued intensity of the conflict in this area.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.

Geopolitical and Economic Situation

• The report on the increasing number of homeless people in the US, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, provides context on the domestic challenges faced by one of the key actors supporting Ukraine.
• The US administration's expectation of reaching the national debt ceiling in January highlights potential economic constraints that could impact US policy, including its ability to provide aid to Ukraine.
• The internal US discussions regarding the war in Ukraine reveal a complex strategic dilemma, with concerns about Russian nuclear escalation influencing their approach to military aid and support for Ukraine. This suggests a cautious approach, aiming to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia while still supporting Ukraine.
• Slovak Prime Minister Fico's statement reflects a critical view of Ukraine's leadership and suggests potential consequences for Ukraine's actions.
• The report of a Russian tanker carrying espionage equipment adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting increased intelligence activities and potential sabotage operations in the Baltic Sea. This could lead to heightened tensions with NATO countries.
• The reported use of a US-supplied THAAD system by Israel to intercept a missile from Yemen demonstrates the continued relevance of advanced air defense systems in modern warfare and the ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Other Developments

• Reports of potential nuclear provocations by Kyiv introduce a new and dangerous element to the conflict, raising concerns about escalation and the potential use of nuclear materials.
• Reports of sabotage against post offices in Ukraine highlight internal resistance and potential disruptions to Ukrainian mobilization efforts.
• The significant number of media registrations with Roskomnadzor indicates a tightening of control over information dissemination in Russia.
• The data on Russians' savings habits provides insight into the economic situation and public sentiment within Russia, although its direct impact on the conflict is limited.

Updated Situation - December 28, 2024, 01:05 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine continues with significant military activity and strategic developments. Russian forces maintain operational tempo, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with confirmed captures of Ivanivka, Zahryzove, Novyi Trud, and Lozova. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. In Vremivka, Russian forces have reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka. Following the liberation of Zahryzove in the Kharkiv region, Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Bohuslavka, located approximately 3 kilometers away.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian equipment and personnel with drones, while also highlighting the need for more advanced electronic warfare capabilities to counter Russian drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a ZALA UAV assisting in the destruction of a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system. Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. New drone threats are reported, with drones approaching from the Tendra Spit towards Odesa/Pivdenne. Mykolaiv Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks, and air raid alerts have been issued in the region due to the threat of "Shahed" drones. Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa Oblast), and drones are also reported in Mykolaiv Oblast, approaching from the south. Two drones are reported near Kobleve, and two more are moving from the Tendra Spit towards Ochakiv. Enemy drones are reportedly heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from the south, with a call for residents of Ochakiv to take shelter. Odesa Oblast is also under threat of enemy drone attacks. Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of "first drones shot down" in the Mykolaiv region. Three drones are confirmed to be moving through Kutsurub in a northerly direction. One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise. One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area. Two drones are circling near the Kosa area. One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported. One drone is confirmed to be circling near Nechaiane, with previous drones in the area either shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare. One drone is confirmed near Ochakiv. One drone is reported in the Nechaiane area, with the course shifting towards Odesa Oblast. A group of drones is moving south of Mykolaiv towards the city, with a call for residents to take shelter. Two new drones are approaching Velyka Korenykha, with potential for anti-drone operations to be heard in the city. One drone is still circling west of Mykolaiv. Explosions were heard again in Mykolaiv. A multi-story building in Mykolaiv was on fire, with the roof damaged and windows broken due to a drone attack. The fire has now been put out, but a new fire has been reported. Russian drones launched from the territory of Crimea. Over 10 drones were reportedly detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region, causing damage to railway infrastructure and leading to train delays. Two civilians were injured in the Krasnogvardeisky district of the Belgorod region due to a Ukrainian drone attack. Damage was reported to power lines and houses in several villages.

The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Two civilians were injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack. Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region, resulting in casualties.

The US continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, with another package expected to be announced soon, reportedly worth $1.25 billion. The package will include munitions, Stinger man-portable air defense systems, and rockets for HAWK and NASAMS air defense systems. The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The White House claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense. Internal US discussions reveal a complex strategic dilemma regarding the war in Ukraine, with concerns about Russian nuclear escalation influencing their approach to military aid and support for Ukraine.

Diplomatic efforts continue, with Ukrainian President Zelensky expressing condolences to Azerbaijan regarding the plane crash and calling for international pressure on Russia to establish the truth. Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine. The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, threatened to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine in response to Ukraine's refusal to transit Russian gas to Europe after 2024. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established contact with the new Syrian government and expressed readiness to restore diplomatic relations. Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster and that Kyiv will pay for this "adventure" with territorial losses and the presence of foreign troops. A Russian tanker, "Eagle S," detained in the Baltic Sea for allegedly damaging the Estlink-2 cable, was reportedly carrying espionage equipment used to track NATO ships and aircraft.

The involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side adds complexity to the conflict, with reports of high casualties and suicides among them.

The strategic landscape is further complicated by the potential Russia-Iran pact, ongoing US military aid to Ukraine, and internal political developments in Georgia and Belarus.

The reported deployment of new Russian self-propelled artillery units with extended range and the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment underscore the ongoing arms race and the evolving nature of the conflict.

The Ukrainian military continues to demonstrate resilience, with reports of successful defensive actions and the use of drones to target Russian forces. However, the need for continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry and electronic warfare capabilities, remains critical.

The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.

Video and photographic evidence confirm the liberation of Lozova by Russian forces, with the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Guards Tank Army raising the Russian flag in the center of the village.

A report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development indicates a record number of homeless people in the country.

A fundraising campaign for Russian paratroopers is ongoing.

There are reports suggesting that Kyiv may be preparing provocations at nuclear facilities in Ukraine or at Russian nuclear power plants. This is based on news reports and intelligence data, including information about Ukrainian delegations visiting a US national laboratory in Idaho for a course on nuclear forensics.

Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction. Ukrainian sabotage groups are setting fire to post offices in Ukraine, reportedly used for mobilization purposes. Over 135,000 applications for registration have been received from owners of channels and social media pages with an audience exceeding 10,000 users. Roskomnadzor has already registered over 49,000 such pages. Almost half (47%) of surveyed Russians were able to save money from their salaries in the past year. Popular savings goals include vacations and travel (24%), home repairs (24%), gifts for loved ones and medical treatment (19% each), and investments (13%).