Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 28, 2024, 23:35 UTC

Key Military Developments

Drone Warfare

• Mykolaiv Region:
  • Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging Russian drones. Reports indicate "first drones shot down" in the region.
  • One drone is confirmed to be circling near Nechaiane, with previous drones in the area either shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare.
  • One drone is confirmed near Ochakiv.
  • One drone is reported in the Nechaiane area, with the course shifting towards Odesa Oblast.
  • Air raid alerts remain in effect for Mykolaiv due to the ongoing drone threat.
  • Explosions have been reported in Mykolaiv amidst the drone attack.
  • A group of drones is moving south of Mykolaiv towards the city, with a call for residents to take shelter.
  • Two new drones are approaching Velyka Korenykha, with potential for anti-drone operations to be heard in the city.
  • One drone is still circling west of Mykolaiv.
  • Explosions were heard again in Mykolaiv.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Two civilians were injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack, according to the head of the district, Ivan Prikhodko.
  • Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area, with reports of a Russian soldier being targeted by Ukrainian forces near the 12th microdistrict. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards the northern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region, resulting in casualties.

Geopolitical Developments

• United States:
  • A report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development indicates a record number of homeless people in the country, with over 771,000 people on the streets in January 2024, compared to over 650,000 in January 2023.
  • The US administration expects to reach the ceiling of the US national debt between January 14 and 23. Authorities will be forced to take emergency measures to prevent default, according to a letter from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
• Humanitarian Aid: American and Moscow communists are reportedly collaborating to deliver humanitarian aid to the Donbas region.
• Slovakia: Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster and that Kyiv will pay for this "adventure" with territorial losses and the presence of foreign troops.

Other Developments

• Fundraising:
  • A fundraising campaign for Russian paratroopers is ongoing, with appeals for support from businesses and ordinary citizens. The campaign is reportedly facing challenges due to the holiday season. The campaign organizers emphasize the need for Mavic drones, describing them as essential in current offensive operations.
• Nuclear Provocations: There are reports suggesting that Kyiv may be preparing provocations at nuclear facilities in Ukraine or at Russian nuclear power plants. This is based on news reports and intelligence data, including information about Ukrainian delegations visiting a US national laboratory in Idaho for a course on nuclear forensics.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.

Analysis of Changes

Drone Activity

• The continued reports of drone activity in the Mykolaiv region, despite Ukrainian air defenses successfully engaging some drones, demonstrate the persistent threat posed by Russian drone operations.
• The shifting course of one drone towards Odesa Oblast suggests a potential expansion of the drone attacks beyond Mykolaiv.
• The new reports of drones approaching Mykolaiv from the south and near Velyka Korenykha indicate an intensification of the drone attack on the city.

Military Situation in Donetsk Oblast

• The reported targeting of a Russian soldier near Dzerzhinsk and the continued fighting in the area indicate ongoing hostilities near Horlivka.
• The reported advance of Russian forces towards the northern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk suggests a gradual shift in the frontline in this area.
• The reported Ukrainian attacks on populated areas in the Donetsk region, resulting in casualties, highlight the continued intensity of the conflict in this area.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.

Geopolitical and Economic Situation

• The report on the increasing number of homeless people in the US, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, provides context on the domestic challenges faced by one of the key actors involved in supporting Ukraine.
• The US administration's expectation of reaching the national debt ceiling in January highlights potential economic constraints that could impact US policy, including its ability to provide aid to Ukraine.
• Slovak Prime Minister Fico's statement reflects a critical view of Ukraine's leadership and suggests potential consequences for Ukraine's actions.

Other Developments

• The reports of potential nuclear provocations by Kyiv introduce a new and dangerous element to the conflict, raising concerns about escalation and the potential use of nuclear materials.

Updated Situation - December 28, 2024, 23:35 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine continues with significant military activity and strategic developments. Russian forces maintain operational tempo, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with confirmed captures of Ivanivka, Zahryzove, Novyi Trud, and Lozova. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. In Vremivka, Russian forces have reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian equipment and personnel with drones, while also highlighting the need for more advanced electronic warfare capabilities to counter Russian drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a ZALA UAV assisting in the destruction of a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system. Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. New drone threats are reported, with drones approaching from the Tendra Spit towards Odesa/Pivdenne. Mykolaiv Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks, and air raid alerts have been issued in the region due to the threat of "Shahed" drones. Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa Oblast), and drones are also reported in Mykolaiv Oblast, approaching from the south. Two drones are reported near Kobleve, and two more are moving from the Tendra Spit towards Ochakiv. Enemy drones are reportedly heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from the south, with a call for residents of Ochakiv to take shelter. Odesa Oblast is also under threat of enemy drone attacks. Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of "first drones shot down" in the Mykolaiv region. Three drones are confirmed to be moving through Kutsurub in a northerly direction. One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise. One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area. Two drones are circling near the Kosa area. One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported. One drone is confirmed to be circling near Nechaiane, with previous drones in the area either shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare. One drone is confirmed near Ochakiv. One drone is reported in the Nechaiane area, with the course shifting towards Odesa Oblast. A group of drones is moving south of Mykolaiv towards the city, with a call for residents to take shelter. Two new drones are approaching Velyka Korenykha, with potential for anti-drone operations to be heard in the city. One drone is still circling west of Mykolaiv. Explosions were heard again in Mykolaiv.

The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Two civilians were injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack. Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region, resulting in casualties.

The US continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, with another package expected to be announced soon, reportedly worth $1.25 billion. The package will include munitions, Stinger man-portable air defense systems, and rockets for HAWK and NASAMS air defense systems. The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The White House claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense.

Diplomatic efforts continue, with Ukrainian President Zelensky expressing condolences to Azerbaijan regarding the plane crash and calling for international pressure on Russia to establish the truth. Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine. The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, threatened to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine in response to Ukraine's refusal to transit Russian gas to Europe after 2024. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established contact with the new Syrian government and expressed readiness to restore diplomatic relations. Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster and that Kyiv will pay for this "adventure" with territorial losses and the presence of foreign troops.

The involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side adds complexity to the conflict, with reports of high casualties and suicides among them.

The strategic landscape is further complicated by the potential Russia-Iran pact, ongoing US military aid to Ukraine, and internal political developments in Georgia and Belarus.

The reported deployment of new Russian self-propelled artillery units with extended range and the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment underscore the ongoing arms race and the evolving nature of the conflict.

The Ukrainian military continues to demonstrate resilience, with reports of successful defensive actions and the use of drones to target Russian forces. However, the need for continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry and electronic warfare capabilities, remains critical.

The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.

Video and photographic evidence confirm the liberation of Lozova by Russian forces, with the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Guards Tank Army raising the Russian flag in the center of the village.

A report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development indicates a record number of homeless people in the country.

A fundraising campaign for Russian paratroopers is ongoing.

There are reports suggesting that Kyiv may be preparing provocations at nuclear facilities in Ukraine or at Russian nuclear power plants. This is based on news reports and intelligence data, including information about Ukrainian delegations visiting a US national laboratory in Idaho for a course on nuclear forensics.

Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.