Updated Situation Report: December 27, 2024, 17:19 UTC

Strategic Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making incremental gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of several settlements by Russian forces (Ivanivka, Zahryzove, and Novyi Trud in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions) highlights the pressure on Ukrainian defenses. Intense fighting is reported in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. The reported withdrawal of Ukrainian forces towards the Dnipro River indicates a significant defensive realignment. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant aspect of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.

The humanitarian crisis deepens, exacerbated by coordinated missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage are reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions. The Nikopol district has suffered damage to several infrastructure facilities due to over 25 attacks using heavy artillery and kamikaze drones.

International support for Ukraine remains, with ongoing US military aid and discussions about potential negotiations. The training of Ukrainian pilots on Mirage 2000-5F aircraft by France signals a potential enhancement of Ukraine's future air capabilities. The US continues to provide military aid, with another package expected to be announced soon. Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine.

The involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side adds complexity and raises concerns about potential escalation. Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone, and some reportedly committing suicide. The potential strategic pact between Russia and Iran further complicates the geopolitical landscape.

Diplomatic efforts continue, with Ukrainian President Zelensky expressing condolences to Azerbaijan regarding a plane crash and calling for international pressure on Russia to establish the truth. The US claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established contact with the new Syrian government and expressed readiness to restore diplomatic relations, contingent on the new government's stance on Ukraine's territorial integrity.

The reported closure of the US State Department's Global Engagement Center (GEC) and internal political developments in Georgia and Belarus add further layers to the complex geopolitical situation.

Key Developments

Donetsk Oblast

• Confirmed Captures: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka and Novyi Trud.
• Intense Fighting: Ongoing in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction.
• Vremivka: Russian forces reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka.
• Ukrainian Withdrawal: Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing towards the main defense line near the Dnipro River.
• Klishchiivka: Video evidence of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian assault group near Klishchiivka using anti-tank guided missiles and attack drones.
• Chasiv Yar and Konstantinovka: Reports of Russian forces advancing in Chasiv Yar and the situation in the Konstantinovka direction.
• Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city, continuing to clear high-rise buildings and the private sector. Clashes continue near Kurakhove, Petropavlivka, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Dachne, Kostyantynopil, and Andriyivka.
• Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. Clashes continue near Novodarivka, Kostyantynopilske, Rozlyv, Rozdolne, Storozheve, Velyka Novosilka, Novyi Komar, and Novosilka.
• Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces consolidating control and advancing near Dzerzhinsk.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control over half of the city. Ukrainian units are regrouping. Clashes are reported near Stupochky and Predtechyne.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky. They are storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka. High-intensity battles are ongoing near multiple settlements.
• Other Key Developments: Guided aerial bombs were launched in the southern part of the region. The 110th Brigade released footage of the shooting of Ukrainian POWs. Russian forces reportedly liquidated a unit of Colombian mercenaries near the LPR. Reports of four Ukrainian soldiers executed after surrendering are under investigation as a potential war crime.

Kharkiv Oblast

• Confirmed Capture: Zahryzove captured by Russian forces.
• Lozovaya: Russian forces reportedly liberated Lozovaya.
• Misinformation: Video evidence of captured Russian soldiers claiming to be followers of a Ukrainian channel, misleading the Russian military commissariat in the Kharkiv region.
• Kremennaya-Terny: Active combat operations near Kremennaya. Russian forces advanced in Terny and expanded their control, pushing towards Borova. Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.

Kursk Region

• Missile Interceptions: Two Ukrainian missiles reportedly shot down over the region.
• Novoivanovka: Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka.
• Casualties: Heavy fighting continues along the front line. Reports of over 3,000 wounded and killed North Korean soldiers in the region. Ukrainian forces reportedly used HIMARS with cluster munitions against North Korean special forces, causing heavy losses.
• Drone Operation: Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.

Drone Warfare

• Continued Use: Both sides continue using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Ukrainian Successes: Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian equipment and personnel with drones.
• Russian Capabilities: Reports of new Russian self-propelled artillery units capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers.
• Video Evidence: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a ZALA UAV assisting in the destruction of a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system.
• New САУ: New Russian self-propelled artillery systems are reportedly being deployed, capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers. A video released by WarGonzo showcases these new systems in action.

Humanitarian Situation

• Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: Reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• Energy Infrastructure: Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Reports of infrastructure damage in the Nikopol district.
• Zaporizhzhia: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reported the completion of 358 military strongpoints and hundreds of kilometers of defensive lines, funded by a 1.9 billion UAH allocation from the government.

International Aid and Diplomacy

• US Aid: President Biden has instructed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine. Another arms package is expected to be allocated soon, including air defense systems.
• F-16: The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Denmark is reportedly allocating a $303 million aid package to Ukraine, with a significant portion dedicated to the maintenance of US-supplied F-16 fighter jets.
• Diplomatic Talks: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart about recent events on the battlefield and US support for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed condolences to Azerbaijan regarding the plane crash and called for international pressure on Russia to establish the truth.
• Syria: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established contact with the new Syrian government and expressed readiness to restore diplomatic relations.
• Germany: German Chancellor Scholz stated that Germany will play an important role in security guarantees for Ukraine but clarified that he will not send German soldiers "to this war."
• Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder and honorary chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party.
• Slovakia: Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine.
• Plane Crash: The US claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense.

Other Developments

• Lukashenko: A Ukrainian military analyst stated that Lukashenko's recent statements about the "Oreshnik" missile are an attempt to align himself with Putin.
• Russian Soldier: Reports of a Russian soldier being beaten to death by his comrades.
• Krasnodar: A man from Krasnodar was sentenced to three years in prison and fined one million rubles for a social media comment.
• Draft Law: A draft law on free higher education within a quota for wives of participants in the special military operation has been submitted to the State Duma.
• US State Department: The US State Department reportedly closed its Global Engagement Center (GEC).
• Ukrainian Citizens: Reports of Ukrainian citizens attempting to flee the country through various means, including posing as part of funeral processions.
• North Korean Soldiers: The White House reports heavy losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone. Some are reportedly committing suicide.
• Yemen: Yemen's Houthis claim to have struck the airport in Tel Aviv with a hypersonic missile.
• Kyiv: Names of Moscow, Minsk, and other Soviet cities removed from the alley of hero cities at the Museum of the History of Ukraine in World War II in Kyiv.

Updated Situation - December 27, 2024, 17:19 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine continues with significant military activity and strategic developments. Russian forces maintain operational tempo, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with confirmed captures of Ivanivka, Zahryzove, and Novyi Trud. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. In Vremivka, Russian forces have reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are withdrawing towards the main defense line near the Dnipro River.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian equipment and personnel with drones, while also highlighting the need for more advanced electronic warfare capabilities to counter Russian drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a ZALA UAV assisting in the destruction of a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, highlighting Russia's use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting. A Ukrainian officer from the "Rubezh" brigade shared accounts of intense fighting, underscoring the continued use of drones and the resilience of Russian troops who reportedly continue to advance even after sustaining severe injuries.

The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Reports indicate damage to several infrastructure facilities in the Nikopol district.

The US continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, with another package expected to be announced soon. The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which, if confirmed, would have significant implications for the conflict. The White House claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense.

Diplomatic efforts continue, with Ukrainian President Zelensky expressing condolences to Azerbaijan regarding the plane crash and calling for international pressure on Russia to establish the truth. Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established contact with the new Syrian government and expressed readiness to restore diplomatic relations, contingent on the new government's stance on Ukraine's territorial integrity.

The involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side adds complexity to the conflict, with reports of high casualties and suicides among them. The White House reports significant losses among North Korean soldiers, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone.

The strategic landscape is further complicated by the potential Russia-Iran pact, ongoing US military aid to Ukraine, and internal political developments in Georgia and Belarus.

The removal of Soviet city names from a Kyiv museum and reports of Ukrainian citizens attempting to flee the country through various means, including posing as part of funeral processions, highlight the broader social and political impacts of the conflict.

The reported deployment of new Russian self-propelled artillery units with extended range and the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment, including the alleged downing of an F-16, underscore the ongoing arms race and the evolving nature of the conflict.

The Ukrainian military continues to demonstrate resilience, with reports of successful defensive actions and the use of drones to target Russian forces. However, the need for continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry and electronic warfare capabilities, remains critical.

The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.

New Information Summary

• Military:
  • Video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a ZALA UAV assisting in the destruction of a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system.
  • New Russian self-propelled artillery systems are reportedly being deployed, capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers. A video released by WarGonzo showcases these new systems in action.
  • Reports of Ukrainian citizens attempting to flee the country by posing as part of a funeral procession.
  • Ukrainian officer from the "Rubezh" brigade shares accounts of intense fighting, highlighting the continued use of drones and the resilience of Russian troops.
• Geopolitical:
  • Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine.
  • US claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense.
  • The White House reports significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army (1,000 in the past week), with some reportedly committing suicide.
• Other:
  • Removal of names of Moscow, Minsk, and other Soviet cities from the alley of hero cities at the Museum of the History of Ukraine in World War II in Kyiv.
  • The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reported the completion of 358 military strongpoints and hundreds of kilometers of defensive lines.
  • The New York Times reports that Ukraine had approximately 50 ATACMS missiles remaining as of November.
  • A man from Krasnodar was sentenced to three years in prison and fined one million rubles for a social media comment deemed to be a "public call to obstruct the authorities in ensuring security."
  • Russian soldier reportedly attacked a school in Volgograd with a knife while under the influence of drugs after returning from the front.
  • Russian sailors who survived the sinking of the Ursa Major cargo ship have departed from Madrid to Russia.
  • A secret report from the German Foreign Ministry, cited by Bild, claims that Germany would be defenseless against Russia's "Oreshnik" ballistic missile.
  • The US imposed financial restrictions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the "Georgian Dream" and former Prime Minister of Georgia.
  • Non-refundable rates in Russian hotels may be introduced in the second half of 2025, according to the Ministry of Economic Development.
  • The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine claims that the Russian Il-76 aircraft that crashed near Belgorod was carrying S-300 missiles.
  • Ukrainian media reports that a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was shot down over the temporarily occupied part of the Luhansk region.
  • Residents of Luhansk report that the local road maintenance company regularly cuts the top layer of asphalt on the 2nd Sverdlov Street, leaving the road in a severely damaged condition.
  • A list of the "TOP-10 War Correspondents of 2024" has been published by the "Asphalt" aggregator, including prominent names such as Evgeny Poddubny, Alexander Sladkov, and Alexander Kots.
  • A video report from the "Rubezh" brigade highlights the continued use of drones and the resilience of Russian troops who reportedly continue to advance even after sustaining severe injuries.
  • A video report from the Chita Suvorov Military School shows cadets preparing a congratulatory video in support of Russian soldiers.
  • A photo report from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine details the results of the week's work, including the investigation of war crimes, collaborators, and corruption.
  • A photo report from the Ministry of Finance of the USA shows the imposition of financial restrictions against Bidzina Ivanishvili.
  • A video report from the Russian Ministry of Defense showcases the elimination of a "Krab" self-propelled artillery system using a ZALA UAV.
  • A photo report from Janus Putkonen discusses the bankruptcy of the Finnish instrument manufacturer Koistinen Kantele.
  • A photo report from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine announces the completion of the investigation into the murder of Iryna Farion.
  • A video report from Zelenskiy's official channel shows a meeting with representatives of national communities and indigenous peoples of Ukraine.
  • A photo report from "Basurin on the Main" shows the opening of a monument to the Special Forces of the Russian Guard in Nizhny Novgorod.
  • A photo report from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine shows the aftermath of shelling in the Nikopol district.
  • A photo report from ASTRA shows the dismantling of the names of Moscow, Minsk, and other Soviet cities from the alley of hero cities in Kyiv.
  • A video report from "Two Majors" showcases the work of naval aviation crews.
  • A photo report from "Two Majors" details an attempt by Ukrainian citizens to flee the country by posing as a funeral procession.
  • A photo report from "Archangel Spetsnaza Z" advertises military equipment.
  • A video report from Colonelcassad calls for donations to purchase motorcycles and drones for the Russian military.
  • A photo report from "Z Committee + Map of the Special Military Operation" shows a map update on the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
  • A video report from "Mash in Donbass" shows the poor condition of roads in Luhansk.
  • A photo report from "Kotsnews" presents a summary of the day's events.
  • A photo report from "RBC-Ukraine" discusses the remaining number of ATACMS missiles in Ukraine.
  • A video report from "Mobilization I News I Draftees" reports on a military man who attacked a school with a knife.
  • A photo report from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" discusses a secret report from the German Foreign Ministry on Germany's vulnerability to Russia's "Oreshnik" ballistic missile.
  • A photo report from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports on the investigation into the shooting of four Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Vremivka direction.
  • A photo report from ASTRA reports on the White House's statement regarding the possible downing of the Baku-Grozny flight by Russian air defense.
  • A message from "Two Majors" suggests a "life hack" for dealing with anonymous police reports.
  • A statement from the Prime Minister of Slovakia indicates the country's readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine.
  • A message from "Rybar" discusses the situation on the Kupyansk-Svatove direction and the advance of Russian troops in Zahryzove.
  • A video report from "Ts্যাপliyenko_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows local residents in Kherson and Antonivka demining roads near their homes.

The updated situation reflects the ongoing intensity of the conflict, the continued importance of drone warfare, the deepening humanitarian crisis, and the complex geopolitical landscape. The new information provides further details on specific incidents, military capabilities, and diplomatic efforts.