Operational Situation Report: December 27, 2024, 16:49 UTC

Executive Summary

Russian forces maintain operational tempo, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with confirmed captures of Ivanivka, Zahryzove, and Novyi Trud. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. In Vremivka, Russian forces have reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are withdrawing towards the main defense line near the Dnipro River. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Guided aerial bombs were launched in the direction of Sumy. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Reports indicate a potential strategic pact between Russia and Iran. US President Biden has instructed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine. The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The US will allocate another arms package to Ukraine in the coming days, including air defense systems. A Ukrainian political analyst states that any actual negotiations require stopping Russian advances, otherwise, Putin will remain under the illusion that he can win the war.

Strategic Analysis

The overall situation remains challenging for Ukrainian forces. Continued Russian advances, particularly in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, suggest a concerted effort to achieve a breakthrough in the Donetsk region. The new offensive in the Kharkiv region, with the reported liberation of Zahryzove, indicates a significant escalation. The capture of key settlements like Storozheve and the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Makarivka (though officially denied) indicate a shift in the balance of power in the Vremivka direction. The reported withdrawal of Ukrainian forces towards the Dnipro River suggests a major shift in defensive strategy.

Extensive drone use by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces are effectively using drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes but face troop and ammunition shortages. The involvement of North Korean troops adds complexity and raises concerns about potential escalation, with reports of high casualties among them and even instances of suicide.

The deteriorating humanitarian situation, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, highlights the devastating impact on the Ukrainian population. The massive coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and demonstrate Russia's intent to cripple Ukraine's infrastructure and demoralize its population.

The potential strategic pact between Russia and Iran adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape, with potential ramifications for the conflict in Ukraine and beyond. Continued US military aid to Ukraine underscores the ongoing international support for Ukraine's defense efforts.

The Pentagon's refusal to comment on the alleged downing of an F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast is notable. While not a confirmation, it is an unusual move that could indicate the report's veracity or a desire to avoid revealing sensitive information. This incident, if confirmed, would have significant implications for the conflict, particularly regarding the potential involvement of Western-supplied advanced aircraft.

Over the past week, the Russian Armed Forces carried out 1 massive and 37 group strikes with high-precision weapons and drones on energy facilities in Ukraine, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

The massive explosion that sunk the Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major" off the coast of Spain, and the refusal of a Norwegian ship to render aid, add another layer of complexity to the conflict, particularly regarding maritime incidents and international law.

Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed his condolences to the President of Azerbaijan regarding the crash of an Azerbaijani plane, stating that evidence increasingly points to Russian involvement. He called for international pressure on Moscow to establish the truth and hold those responsible accountable.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the establishment of contact with the new Syrian government and expressed readiness to restore diplomatic relations, contingent on the new government's stance on Ukraine's territorial integrity. They also announced a humanitarian aid shipment of 500 tons of wheat flour to Syria.

In Kyiv, the names of Moscow, Minsk, and other Soviet cities were removed from the alley of hero cities at the Museum of the History of Ukraine in World War II.

New Developments Since Last Report (2024-12-27 16:40:38 UTC)

• A Ukrainian military analyst on a video call with RBC-Ukraine stated that Lukashenko's recent statements about the "Oreshnik" missile are an attempt to align himself with Putin, for whom the missile is a "favorite toy." He added that Lukashenko is seeking attention due to upcoming elections.
• The US has imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder and honorary chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party, former prime minister, and Georgian billionaire.
• German Chancellor Scholz stated that Germany will play an important role in security guarantees for Ukraine but clarified that he will not send German soldiers "to this war," commenting on the possibility of participating in a hypothetical peacekeeping mission.
• A video shows Ukrainian soldiers from the 5th Assault Brigade destroying a Russian assault group near Klishchiivka. The video claims that a "Stugna" anti-tank guided missile system and attack drones destroyed three BMPs with infantry and two tanks, one of which was a T-90M "Proryv". None of the Russian vehicles reached the attack line.
• A video shows captured Russian soldiers who claim to be followers of a channel run by the Ukrainian forces. They reportedly misled the Russian military commissariat and were taken prisoner by the "Warriors Cartel" company of the 3rd Assault Brigade in the Kharkiv region.
• Several infrastructure facilities were damaged in the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, according to regional head Lysak.
• Two more Ukrainian missiles were reportedly shot down over the Kursk region, according to the regional government.
• Yemen's Houthis claim to have struck the airport in Tel Aviv with a hypersonic missile.
• A video shows Ukrainian soldiers of the 47th Mechanized Brigade raising funds for pickup trucks.
• A Russian soldier was reportedly beaten to death by his comrades using a pipe. The incident occurred in a military unit, and the victim, Vladimir Gerasimov, was reportedly held in a weapons storage room for a day before dying from internal bleeding. Three of his fellow soldiers allegedly beat him with a pipe, inflicting at least 150 blows. An investigation initially opened multiple charges, but the case was later transferred to court under a single charge of violating statutory rules of conduct between servicemen. New witnesses and experts claimed that the victim inflicted the fatal injuries on himself.
• A video shows Ukrainian cadets training in bayonet attacks at the Kyiv Military Institute of Telecommunications and Informatization named after the Heroes of Kruty. The instructor acknowledges the outdated nature of the training but states it is required by the curriculum.
• A man from Krasnodar was sentenced to three years in prison and fined one million rubles for a social media comment deemed to be a "public call to obstruct the authorities in ensuring security." He had previously been arrested for publishing "extremist" symbols, specifically the Ukrainian flag with the text "Glory to Ukraine!"
• The Russian military claims that new 152-mm self-propelled artillery units on wheeled chassis are being deployed in the special military operation zone. These units, using new guided munitions, are reportedly capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers.
• Denmark is reportedly allocating a $303 million aid package to Ukraine, with a significant portion dedicated to the maintenance of US-supplied F-16 fighter jets. Denmark has already delivered 6 F-16s to Ukraine and plans to deliver 13 more. Denmark has also authorized Ukraine to use its F-16s against targets in Russia. The F-16s are reportedly based in Romania.
• The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, declared a day of mourning in the region on December 28 due to the crash of an Azerbaijani Embraer E190 aircraft. Kadyrov had previously instructed to help the families of the victims, but Azerbaijani authorities unofficially rejected the offer, according to Day.Az. Instead, they will seek an admission of guilt from Russia, an apology, and compensation. Kadyrov had also awarded his nephew, Khamzat Kadyrov, the Secretary of the Security Council of Chechnya, with a medal "For Services to the Chechen Republic." Khamzat Kadyrov had previously reported that all drones over the region had been shot down. The Azerbaijani Minister of Digital Development and Transport stated that the plane crashed due to "external interference."
• A draft law on free higher education within a quota for wives of participants in the special military operation has been submitted to the State Duma.
• A video shows the aftermath of an artillery attack on Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Krasne, with Russian forces reportedly advancing in Chasiv Yar.
• A map shows the situation in the Konstantinovka direction as of December 27, 2024, with Russian forces making gains towards Chasiv Yar. The map indicates heavy fortifications and fighting in "gray zone" settlements.
• The US State Department reportedly closed its Global Engagement Center (GEC), which was established to "counter propaganda and disinformation" from foreign states. The closure follows allegations that the center was used to target conservative American citizens.
• A video shows a soldier expressing gratitude for the repair of a vehicle used to transport aid to the front lines. The repair was reportedly funded by a subscriber, Andrey Viktorovich.
• A video shows an underground school in Zaporizhzhia that has been built to provide a safe learning environment for children. The school was visited by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Minister of Education and Science Oksen Lisovyi.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart about recent events on the battlefield and US support for Ukraine. Blinken reaffirmed the US's unwavering support for Ukraine.
• A video shows a funeral procession in Ukraine attempting to flee across the border into Romania. Two men were caught by Ukrainian border guards after they jumped out of a vehicle and tried to run across the border. A local resident was reportedly charging $18,000 to arrange for people to join funeral processions and cross the border during the burials.
• Since this morning, Russians have reportedly attacked the Nikopol region more than 25 times using heavy artillery and kamikaze drones. Infrastructure, private homes, outbuildings, solar panels, cars, and power lines were damaged. There were no casualties reported.
• A video shows members of the "Vidarr" unit of the 60th Mechanized Brigade reportedly destroying Russian forces on the Lyman front.
• A man in military fatigues with an "INSTRUCTOR" patch is shown administering an injection to another person lying on the ground, likely as part of a medical training exercise or simulation.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the flag of the Russian Federation has been raised in the center of Lozovaya (Kharkiv region) by servicemen of the 27th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade.
• A video shows four Ukrainian soldiers from the 28th Brigade, 111th Territorial Defense Battalion, sending Christmas greetings from a muddy, fortified position.
• A video shows a Ukrainian military officer discussing recent combat experiences, highlighting the importance of drones, electronic warfare, and the resilience of Russian troops who continue to advance even after sustaining severe injuries.
• The White House reports heavy losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone. Some are reportedly committing suicide.
• A video shows new Russian self-propelled artillery units reportedly capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers.
• A video shows two fighter jets flying above the clouds during dawn or dusk, possibly conducting an air patrol or escort mission.
• Photos show Ukrainian border guards detaining individuals attempting to illegally cross the border, possibly as part of a funeral procession.
• Photos and a video show the removal of the names of Moscow, Minsk, and other Soviet cities from the alley of hero cities at the Museum of the History of Ukraine in World War II in Kyiv.

Updated Situation - December 27, 2024, 16:49 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine continues with significant military activity and strategic developments. Russian forces maintain operational tempo, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with confirmed captures of Ivanivka, Zahryzove, and Novyi Trud. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. In Vremivka, Russian forces have reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are withdrawing towards the main defense line near the Dnipro River.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian equipment and personnel with drones, while also highlighting the need for more advanced electronic warfare capabilities to counter Russian drones.

The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.

The US continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, with another package expected to be announced soon. The Pentagon has refused to comment on reports of a downed F-16 over Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which, if confirmed, would have significant implications for the conflict.

Diplomatic efforts continue, with Ukrainian President Zelensky expressing condolences to Azerbaijan regarding the plane crash and calling for international pressure on Russia to establish the truth. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established contact with the new Syrian government and expressed readiness to restore diplomatic relations, contingent on the new government's stance on Ukraine's territorial integrity.

The involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side adds complexity to the conflict, with reports of high casualties and suicides among them.

The strategic landscape is further complicated by the potential Russia-Iran pact, ongoing US military aid to Ukraine, and internal political developments in Georgia and Belarus.

The removal of Soviet city names from a Kyiv museum and reports of Ukrainian citizens attempting to flee the country through various means, including posing as part of funeral processions, highlight the broader social and political impacts of the conflict.

The reported deployment of new Russian self-propelled artillery units with extended range and the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment, including the alleged downing of an F-16, underscore the ongoing arms race and the evolving nature of the conflict.

The Ukrainian military continues to demonstrate resilience, with reports of successful defensive actions and the use of drones to target Russian forces. However, the need for continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry and electronic warfare capabilities, remains critical.

The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.