Military Situation Update: December 26, 2024, 05:41 UTC
Key Developments
Donetsk Oblast
Kurakhove: Russian forces have liberated an additional 5 square kilometers, advancing south of the Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone. Clashes continue in the central part of the city for the remaining high-rise buildings. Russian forces are also advancing in the western part of the high-rise buildings and have placed a flag on the roof of the sanatorium.
Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve and advanced towards Velyka Novosilka, forming a new "pocket" and capturing Novyi Komar and Novopustynka. Russian forces liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road. Russian forces have completely dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne. Fighting continues in the southern part of Novyi Komar.
Toretsk: Street fighting continues. Russian forces continue attacks along Fabrychna, Rynkova, Svitla, Lesi Ukrainky streets and in the direction of the "Toretska" mine. Heavy fighting is ongoing in Shcherbynivka (southwest of Toretsk).
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian forces have retaken positions at the fire-resistant compound. There are currently about 150 Ukrainian soldiers at the plant. Drone operators from the Ivanovo Airborne Forces destroyed a Ukrainian tank near Chasiv Yar.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are developing success from the southwest, attacking from the side of Dachenske. Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud. Fighting is ongoing in Dachenske. Russian forces are advancing west on a broad front south of Pokrovsk, making progress near Novooleenovka and Novoyelizavetivka. The Russian advance on the southern approach to Krasnoarmeisk has extended over 700 meters, reaching the central part of Lysivka.
Terny: Russian forces advanced in the village of Terny, taking control of approximately 40% of the settlement.
Kharkiv Oblast
Starytsia: Russian forces have broken through the Ukrainian defense in Starytsia and are advancing along the Seversky Donets River.
Russian forces made progress in Zahryzove thanks to gaps in the Ukrainian defenses.
6 new drones were reported in the Kharkiv Oblast, with a course towards/through Balakliia.
Kursk Region
The crew of a Ka-52M helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
"Grad" MLRS destroyed Ukrainian strongholds and infantry in the Kursk border area. A "Grad" MLRS crew of Tula paratroopers destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian infantry in the border area.
A Ukrainian soldier from the 47th Mechanized Brigade, currently positioned in Sudzha, made threatening statements in voice messages to a Russian soldier.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade reportedly suffered significant losses near Leonidovka.
Ukrainian forces reportedly mined civilian objects in Plehovo with explosives placed inside of toys marked with a black triangle.
Fighting occurred near Leonidovo, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and Kurilovka. Ukrainian forces attempted two unsuccessful counterattacks.
Ukrainian forces shelled Lgov, killing four people. The Investigative Committee of Russia has opened a criminal case regarding this shelling as an act of terrorism.
Paratroopers from the 98th Airborne Division shot down a Ukrainian drone.
Russian forces are conducting an offensive on the Kursk front, storming Kruglenkoye, advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Active combat operations reported near Sudzha, with Russian forces attacking in the direction of Viktorivka and advancing up to 2 km.
The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line in the Kursk sector.
Belgorod Region
Ukrainian forces attacked the Grayvoron district with drones, damaging power lines.
A drone attacked a truck on the Belgorod - Shebekino highway.
A car traveling on the Murom - Nechaevka highway was attacked by a kamikaze drone.
A drone attacked a car in Dolgoe, Valuysky district.
A drone attacked Nechaevka, Belgorod district.
Voronezh Region
A Ukrainian drone was destroyed over the region.
Several Ukrainian drones were shot down over the "Baltimore" military airfield on December 25, with debris damaging a garage and a house's roof.
Volgograd Region
"Обломки" (debris) of a UAV fell on the territory of an industrial facility in the Kotovsky district without causing a fire, according to the governor.
Black Sea
The Ukrainian Navy reported that Russia has 1 ship in the Black Sea, carrying up to 4 Kalibr missiles.
Azov Sea
The Ukrainian Navy reported that Russia has no ships in the Azov Sea.
Mediterranean Sea
The Ukrainian Navy reported that Russia has 8 ships in the Mediterranean Sea, 3 of which are carrying up to 25 Kalibr missiles.
Drone Warfare
An air alert has been announced in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and was subsequently called off.
Russian drones "Orion/Inokhodets" are being used successfully in the special military operation zone and are being prepared for export. A delegation of customers from an Asian country visited the manufacturer's facility in the "Rudnevo" industrial park.
Over the past night, 5 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Volgograd, Voronezh, and Belgorod Oblasts.
Ukrainian drones were reported on the border of Kirovohrad and Cherkasy Oblasts, heading west.
Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
Increased drone activity in Kharkiv and Poltava regions, with drones moving west/southwest. New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones:
New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest.
Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west.
Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
Geopolitical Developments
Russian companies are increasingly using Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for international transactions to circumvent Western sanctions.
The appearance of the "Mir" card in Cuba has attracted more tourists from Russia, according to the Russian ambassador to Havana. The card can now be used throughout the republic.
Apple explained that it removed Russian-language independent media and VPN service applications from its App Store in Russia out of concern for democracy and citizens.
Joe Biden condemned Russia's attack on Christmas and promised more air defense missiles to Ukraine. He stated that the US has supplied Ukraine with hundreds of air defense missiles in recent months, with more on the way.
Donald Trump made a Christmas post, mentioning China, Canada, and Greenland in a manner suggesting potential future tensions or strategic interests.
A Russian soldier discussed his interactions with North Korean troops in the Kursk region, describing them as ruthless, operating independently, and even firing on Russian drones. He also mentioned that they had better food and took better care of their dead than the Russian commanders did.
Other Key Developments
Flooding affected 64 regions of Russia in 2024.
Criminal cases related to online fraud have been opened in the city of Yunosti.
Criminal investigation is ongoing in Khabarovsk in relation to the storage and selling of synthetic drugs.
Massive strikes were carried out against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, damaging the Zmievskaya, Burshtynskaya, and Slavyanskaya thermal power plants. However, it is still too early to talk about the complete destruction of the enemy's generating capacity.
On the Kherson direction, according to the enemy, Russian forces are creating conditions for fording the Dnieper. Such emotional statements by the enemy about the impending offensive of our troops may indicate a low readiness and insufficiency of enemy forces in the direction, while the statements themselves serve as an "information cushion" for local commanders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Kiev authorities. It is reliably known only about the intensified strikes of the Russian Armed Forces on the enemy coast, which, however, may be the work to reduce the threat to the civilian population of our coast in the conditions of constant terrorist attacks of the Nazis.
Kazakhstan is investigating the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane jointly with representatives from Azerbaijan and Brazil. 9 injured Russians were taken from Aktau by a Russian Emergencies Ministry plane.
In Russia, more than 40 arson and explosion incidents were committed in 10 days due to scammers.
The anxiety index among Russians in 2024 decreased by 1/4 compared to 2023.
An aircraft of the Russian Emergencies Ministry evacuated nine Russian citizens who were injured in an aviation incident from the city of Aktau.
Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs warns of increased scam activity, with scammers attempting to manipulate victims into committing acts of arson and violence.
Analysis of Changes
The liberation of an additional 5 sq km in Kurakhove and the capture of Novyi Trud signifies further progress for Russian forces in the Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are making progress in street fighting in Toretsk and advancing south of Pokrovsk. The liberation of around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road is also a significant advance for Russian forces. The advance in Terny to control 40% of the village represents a notable gain for Russian forces in this area.
The breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense in Starytsia and the advance along the Seversky Donets River, coupled with the progress in Zahryzove, represent a notable development in the Kharkiv Oblast.
The destruction of a Ukrainian stronghold by a Ka-52M helicopter, the use of "Grad" MLRS, and the downing of a Ukrainian drone by paratroopers highlight the continued intensity of fighting in the Kursk region. The reported Ukrainian shelling of Lgov that resulted in civilian deaths is a significant escalation, now being investigated as an act of terrorism.
The reported mining of civilian objects, including children's toys, by Ukrainian forces in Plehovo is a grave development and a potential war crime. This tactic poses a significant threat to civilians and returning residents.
The destruction of Ukrainian drones over Voronezh Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, and Volgograd Oblast indicates the ongoing threat of drone attacks within Russian territory. The targeting of the "Baltimore" military airfield, despite the drones being shot down, is a notable development.
The reported damage to power lines in the Belgorod region due to Ukrainian drone attacks indicates a continued focus on targeting infrastructure.
The successful use of Russian "Orion/Inokhodets" drones and their preparation for export is a notable development in Russia's drone warfare capabilities.
The reported increase in Russian tourists to Cuba due to the "Mir" card's availability is a minor economic development.
The reported damage to Ukrainian thermal power plants, while significant, does not yet indicate a complete destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
The Ukrainian claims of a potential Russian offensive across the Dnieper River on the Kherson front should be viewed with caution, as it could be an attempt to justify their own lack of preparedness. However, the increased Russian strikes on the Ukrainian side of the river are confirmed.
The report by the Ukrainian Navy that Russia has 1 ship in the Black Sea, carrying up to 4 Kalibr missiles, and 8 ships in the Mediterranean Sea, 3 of which are carrying up to 25 Kalibr missiles, is a significant development. This indicates a continued Russian naval presence in the region, with the potential for missile strikes.
The removal of Russian-language independent media and VPN service applications from Apple's App Store in Russia is a significant geopolitical development, as it restricts access to information and limits the ability of Russians to circumvent censorship.
Joe Biden's condemnation of Russia's actions and the promise of additional air defense missiles to Ukraine is a significant development, potentially bolstering Ukraine's defensive capabilities.
The reported advance of Russian troops in Terny and their control of 40% of the village is a significant development on the Donetsk front.
The medical evacuation of injured Russian citizens from Aktau by a Russian Emergencies Ministry aircraft indicates a coordinated response to an aviation incident.
The warning from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs about increased scam activity, with scammers attempting to manipulate victims into committing acts of arson and violence, is a significant development in the context of information warfare and social engineering.
Donald Trump's Christmas message, with its references to China, Canada, and Greenland, suggests potential future geopolitical tensions and strategic interests, particularly regarding the Panama Canal and the Arctic region.
Notable Tactical and Strategic Changes
Russian Advance in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and towards Terny: The liberation of additional territory around Kurakhove, the significant advance along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road, the breakthrough in Starytsia, the progress in Zahryzove, and the advance in Terny represent a substantial shift in the tactical situation, indicating a successful Russian offensive push in these areas. This advance may force Ukrainian forces to re-evaluate their defensive positions and could lead to further Russian gains in the region. The control of 40% of Terny village is a significant tactical gain for Russian forces.
Increased Naval Presence in the Mediterranean: The presence of 8 Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including 3 carrying Kalibr missiles, represents a significant increase in Russia's naval power projection in the region. This could be a strategic move to exert influence beyond the immediate conflict zone in Ukraine, potentially impacting NATO operations or maritime security in the Mediterranean.
Information Control: Apple's removal of Russian-language independent media and VPN applications from its App Store in Russia signifies a tightening of information control within Russia. This move could limit the Russian population's access to alternative news sources and restrict their ability to communicate freely, potentially impacting public opinion and dissent.
Drone Warfare: The successful use of Russian "Orion/Inokhodets" drones and their preparation for export indicates an advancement in Russia's drone warfare capabilities. This could have implications for the balance of power in the conflict, as well as for future military exports and international drone warfare trends. The destruction of multiple Ukrainian drones over Russian territory also highlights the ongoing threat and Russia's efforts to counter it.
US Military Aid: Joe Biden's promise to increase the supply of air defense missiles to Ukraine is a significant strategic development. This could enhance Ukraine's ability to defend against Russian air and missile attacks, potentially altering the dynamics of the conflict.
Intensified Russian Offensive in Kursk Region: The reported Russian offensive on the Kursk front, with advances towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and the fierce battles along the entire front line in the Kursk sector, indicate an intensification of military activity in this area. This could signal a new strategic focus for Russian forces, potentially aiming to divert Ukrainian resources or achieve a breakthrough in a new sector.
Social Engineering and Information Warfare: The warning from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs about increased scam activity, with scammers attempting to manipulate victims into committing acts of arson and violence, highlights the ongoing information warfare and social engineering tactics being employed. This suggests an attempt to destabilize Russian society from within and create an atmosphere of fear and mistrust.
These changes represent significant developments in the ongoing conflict, with potential implications for the military balance, strategic objectives, and the broader geopolitical landscape. The increased Russian offensive in the Kursk region and the ongoing information warfare tactics are particularly noteworthy developments that could shape the future course of the conflict.
