Situation Report

Major Updates - December 26, 2024, 02:11 UTC

Military Developments

• Kursk Region:
  • A Ukrainian "Vampire" drone was shot down using small arms fire in the Glushkovsky district by the 234th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage showing a "Tor-M2" air defense system engaging and destroying a Ukrainian drone in the Kursk region.
  • An aircraft under the control of an all-female crew landed at the airport of the Iranian city of Mashhad, according to the IRNA agency. The flight was timed to coincide with Mother's Day.

Drone Warfare

• The downing of the "Vampire" drone demonstrates the ongoing use of drones by Ukrainian forces and the Russian countermeasures in place. The use of small arms fire suggests a close-range engagement.
• The footage of the "Tor-M2" system successfully engaging a drone highlights the system's effectiveness against aerial threats and its role in defending the Kursk region.

Geopolitical Developments

• Russia and Iran are reportedly planning to sign a new strategic partnership agreement, potentially before a possible Trump inauguration. This move is seen as an attempt by both countries to "unite forces" amid increasing global isolation. The agreement is expected to include cooperation in defense, energy, production, transport, and agriculture.
• US President Biden has instructed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine, according to the White House press service.
• An ambush occurred in Tartus, resulting in the deaths of 14 Syrian soldiers and injuries to 10 others.
• The head of the Syrian Interior Ministry, Muhammad Abdel Rahman, reported the ambush to SANA news agency.

Propaganda and Disinformation

• The footage released by the Russian Ministry of Defense can be seen as a propaganda effort to showcase the capabilities of Russian air defense systems and deter further drone attacks.
• There is a fundraising campaign for electronic warfare (EW) systems. It is necessary to equip the vehicles of assault groups with EW systems. EW complex - 3 pieces. Required: 1,200,000 rubles.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine congratulates all servicemen and women of the Ukrainian army who are adherents of Judaism, as well as all colleagues from the Armed Forces of the State of Israel, on the occasion of the beginning of the Hanukkah holiday. They emphasize the importance of tolerance, mutual respect, and solidarity between peoples.

Other Key Developments

• The Ukrainian Air Force has announced the end of the threat of enemy drones.
• Air raid alerts are no longer in effect.
• Kharkiv: Overnight strikes on Kharkiv using missiles, bombs, and drones damaged energy infrastructure and industrial facilities. Power outages continue, with approximately 15% of consumers in Kharkiv without electricity. Restoration efforts are ongoing, with heat supply gradually being restored.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian forces report a successful operation, capturing Russian soldiers. Video footage shows Ukrainian tanks and M-113 APCs advancing, deploying troops, and engaging in combat, ultimately returning with captured Russian soldiers despite enemy artillery fire.
• Fundraising for Ukrainian Forces: An urgent fundraising campaign is underway to purchase a vehicle for Ukrainian troops, highlighting the continued need for logistical support.
• Mirage 2000-5F Training: French military sources confirmed the completion of training for Ukrainian pilots and ground personnel on Mirage 2000-5F aircraft.
• Aviation Accident in Kazakhstan: An Azerbaijani passenger plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan. The aircraft had undergone its last full technical inspection in October.
• Moldova: The Russian Foreign Ministry accused NATO of attempting to turn Moldova into a logistics hub for supplying the Ukrainian army.
• Diplomatic Efforts: The Iranian Embassy in Ukraine extended Christmas greetings and wished for peace in the New Year.
• War in Gaza Strip: Reports indicate 21 Palestinians killed and 51 wounded in Israeli strikes on Gaza.
• Toretsk: Russian forces evacuated civilians from Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk). Russian forces are advancing near Dzerzhinsk, with fighting ongoing in the center of the town.
• Kremennaya-Terny: Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova (Kharkiv Oblast). Russian forces advanced in Terny.
• Kursk Region:
  • Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area.
  • A Russian soldier was reported missing in action in the Kursk region on December 25th.
  • Drone operators from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region.
  • The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
  • Explosions were reported in Kyiv-controlled Kherson.
  • Russian forces are clearing Russkoye Porechnoye.
  • Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
  • The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive on the Kursk front, storming Kruglenkoye, advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • Russian forces destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian military equipment with the use of a "Malka" artillery system.
  • Calculations of the MLRS "Grad" group of troops "North" destroyed strongholds and infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.
  • Russian forces reportedly liberated Pogrebki, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Kamyshovka.
  • Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka, advancing up to 1200 meters near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Leonidovo, Russkaya Porechnaya, and Kurilovka.
  • South of Kruhlenky, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka, clearing a forest belt and gaining 1.6 km. They are also advancing towards Leonidove.
  • Russian paratroopers are evacuating civilians from occupied settlements in the Kursk region.
• Vremivka Direction:
  • Russian forces are advancing, with reports of over 800 meters gained.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve.
  • Rogov reported the beginning of battles for the liberation of Neskuchne in DPR.
  • Russian forces are reportedly attacking Velyka Novosilka from both sides.
  • Russian forces are processing the approaches to Neskuchne.
  • Occupation authorities in Huliaipole are concerned about the situation, with rumors of a potential Russian offensive.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian paratroopers reportedly discovered a concentration of enemy troops and destroyed them with drone strikes.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two.
  • "Birds of Magyar" attacked Ukrainian positions in the Pokrovsk area.
  • The "Baltic Group" of the 59th Motorized Brigade used drones to target and destroy a Russian BMP, 5 soldiers, a motorcycle, and a pickup truck.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Extensive drone warfare continues across the region, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
  • A new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" started to be used in the zone of special military operation.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
  • During the night, 4 more UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare in the Millerovsky and Tarasovsky districts of Rostov Oblast.
  • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
  • Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
  • Video shows a drone strike on a US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Sudzha.
  • Video from Sudoplatov shows Russian forces towing a captured American M113 armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region.
  • Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
  • Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region.
  • Code 9.2 unit drops "goodies" on communists and Jucheists in the Kursk region.
  • Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle in the Kharkiv region.
  • A Leopard tank was destroyed in the Kupyansk Direction.
  • A Russian attack drone unit successfully eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area in the Kharkiv region.
  • Ukrainian forces were reportedly killed by Russian drones near Kharkiv.
  • Russian forces reportedly used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk.
  • Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
  • Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
  • Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade are reported to have destroyed enemy personnel and a truck in the Kharkiv region.
  • Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
  • Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
  • In the Kupyansk area, fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
  • FPV of the Third Assault Brigade destroys enemy weapons, shelters, and warehouses in the Kharkiv direction.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles.
  • One Ukrainian soldier was killed, and another injured in Kupiansk due to shelling by Russian forces.
  • A Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man walking down the street in Kupyansk.
  • Explosive strikes were reported in the region.
  • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • Russian forces report needing more Mavic drones to break through enemy defenses on all fronts, from Kursk to Kurakhove.
• Other Key Developments:
  • Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that as a result of decisive offensive actions, the Tsentr Group of Forces' units liberated Novy Trud (Donetsk People's Republic).
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Vostok Group of Forces' units continued advancing into the depth of the enemy's defenses.
  • Heavy fighting continues around several settlements, including Shevchenko, Pischane, and Novotroyitske, with Russian forces making incremental gains.
  • Reports of four Ukrainian soldiers being executed by Russian forces after surrendering are under investigation as a potential war crime.
  • Russian electronic warfare systems in the DPR have reportedly disrupted nearly 140 Ukrainian air attacks in the past week.
  • Russian forces are storming Zahryzove, pushing through defenses near Lozova and Zelenyi Hai, and moving towards Borova.
  • An attack by a Russian infantry unit was reported in Terny.
  • Russian forces advanced in the central part of Terny.
  • On the Liman axis, 26 attacks were reported towards Grekivka, Novoegorivka, Zeleny Gay, Nova Kruglyakivka, Tverdokhlibovo, Nadiya, Novosergiyivka, Terniv, Shyikivka, Sergiyivka, and Makiyivka.
  • Russian forces established control over positions east of Novoyvanovka and were noted to be present on the western bank of the Oskol River in Dvurechnaya on the Kupyansk front.
  • Russian forces reportedly liberated Daryino and Novoivanovka in the Sudzha district, and took a Ukrainian position in Plekhovo.
  • Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions west of Nechaev in the direction of Russkogo Porechnogo.
  • Russian forces are advancing east from Kruglenkogo, capturing 1km of territory.
  • North of Kruhlenky Russian forces dislodged Ukrainian forces for 2 km.
  • Russian forces are pushing along the Gluboky Yar gully, clearing forest areas.
  • One clash occurred near Vovchansk.
  • Russian forces conducted 3 airstrikes with 23 unguided aerial rockets (NARs) and 27 drone strikes.
  • Russian forces carried out 28 shellings of Ukrainian positions.
  • Ukrainian forces inflicted losses on Russian forces, including 54 troops (16 killed, 38 wounded), 42 pieces of equipment destroyed or damaged, and 59 shelters destroyed.
  • Russian forces liberated Lozovaya.
  • In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy unsuccessfully stormed the positions of our units six times in the areas of Kozacha Lopan, Vysokaya Yaruga and Vovchansk.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, four enemy attacks took place during the day. The Defense Forces repelled the enemy's assault actions near Petropavlivka and Kruhlyakivka.
  • Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian forces lost more than 230 troops and two tanks in the Kursk direction.
  • Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 43,740 troops, 255 tanks, 194 infantry fighting vehicles, 136 armored personnel carriers, 1,318 armored fighting vehicles, 1,182 motor vehicles, 324 artillery guns, 42 MLRS launchers, including 11 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile launchers, seven transport-loading vehicles, 80 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 28 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, seven armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
  • The Ministry of Defense reports that Russian troops defeated formations of 5 mechanized, 3 airborne assault brigades, a marine brigade, and 4 territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Aleksandria, Viktorovka, Kositsa, Kurilovka, Lebedevka, Leonidovo, Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, Nikolaevka, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Novaya Sorochina, Russkoye Porechnoye, Sverdlikovo, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • Three counterattacks by enemy assault groups were repelled. As a result of air strikes and artillery fire, Ukrainian manpower and equipment were destroyed near Guyevo, Kruglenkoye, Melovoy, Nikolsky, and Staraya Sorochina, as well as Basovka, Belovody, Vodolagi, and Zhuravka in the Sumy region.
  • Active combat is ongoing in the Sudzha area. 32 combat clashes, 19 in Kursk region. Ukrainian forces repelled 42 Russian assaults, 19 as of 16:00 UTC.
  • Russian troops liberated more than 5 square kilometers of the territory of the DPR and advanced from the settlement of Zarya towards Yasenev, Rogov told TASS.
  • Almost 4.4 thousand civilians in Russia have been injured since January as a result of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and almost 800 people, including 50 children, have died.
  • Another 500-kilogram aerial bomb was dropped by a Russian plane onto the Belgorod region.
  • Four defendants in the case of supplying low-quality bulletproof vests to the Ministry of Defense in the amount of about 2 billion rubles pleaded guilty.
  • NATO Secretary General reportedly asked Zelensky to stop criticizing Scholz over Taurus missiles.
  • Discussions between US and Ukrainian officials on ending the war.
  • NATO to coordinate military aid to Ukraine.
  • Discussions on sending European troops to Ukraine.
  • 87 children were reunited with their relatives in Ukraine, and another 15 children returned to their loved ones in Russia, Lvova-Belova reported.
  • The Russian government has banned mining in 10 Russian regions in the North Caucasus, Donbas and Novorossiya.
  • In Kherson, the overall situation is discussed, including opinions and data. There are no new troop formations or units, except for the newly created 91st Separate River Boat Brigade.
  • Explosions were heard in Pavlohrad.
  • Residents of Nizhyn (Chernihiv region) are advised to take shelter due to the threat of an enemy drone.
  • A car was driven into the doors of the military commissariat in Gus-Khrustalny, Vladimir Oblast, and the driver then set the car on fire. The driver was promised the return of stolen money in exchange for the crime. The suspect has been detained.
  • The newest ice-class patrol ship "Nikolay Zubov" was launched for the Russian Navy.
  • Video footage from a Russian source shows army aviation operating in the zone of responsibility of the "Vostok" grouping, using unguided aerial rockets (NARs) against enemy strongholds.
  • Video footage shared by the 60th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine shows drone strikes on Russian positions and personnel.
  • In Krasnodar Krai, an emergency situation has been declared, and work is underway to clean up fuel oil from the coast.
  • In Anapa, rescuers and volunteers continue to fight pollution on the beaches after the tanker accident. In the Temryuk district, the Black Sea coast has already been completely cleaned of fuel oil: it and the garbage brought in by the storm were promptly collected and sent for recycling. A site is being prepared for the storage of contaminated soil.
  • The region has allocated 1.2 billion rubles to fight the emergency in Anapa. Governor Kondratyev said that no new areas of fuel oil emissions were found. The amount of the grant for disposal may reach 200,000 tons, said Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology A. Kozlov.
  • Volunteers from all over the country are coming to help in the fight against the environmental disaster. Rescuers, students and local residents of all ages help collect and remove bags, having already collected 21,000 tons of contaminated soil.

Analysis of Changes

• The successful downing of a Ukrainian drone in the Kursk region indicates continued efforts by Russian forces to counter aerial threats. The use of small arms fire suggests that the drone was operating at a low altitude, possibly indicating a reconnaissance mission or a planned attack on a nearby target.
• The "Tor-M2" system's engagement of a drone further demonstrates the active defense posture of Russian forces in the Kursk region. This system's deployment and successful use highlight its importance in protecting against drone threats.
• The contrasting perspectives of the thermal and night vision footage suggest a coordinated military strike. The thermal signature indicates the use of a projectile, possibly a missile, resulting in an explosion. The precision of the strike suggests advanced targeting capabilities. This incident demonstrates the ongoing intensity of the conflict and the use of sophisticated weaponry.
• The footage of the "Tor-M2" system in operation emphasizes its mobility and ability to engage multiple targets, including small UAVs. This highlights the system's role in enhancing air defense capabilities and countering the threat posed by drones. The video also serves as a form of psychological warfare, showcasing Russian military strength.
• The all-female crew landing in Iran's Mashhad airport could be interpreted as a symbolic gesture, possibly aimed at highlighting gender equality within certain military roles or strengthening ties with Iran.

Updated Situation - December 26, 2024, 02:11 UTC

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with ongoing hostilities across multiple fronts. Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction. The capture of Storozheve and advances towards Velyka Novosilka signify a shift in the balance of power in the Vremivka direction. Drone warfare remains a prominent feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The successful downing of a Ukrainian "Vampire" drone and the "Tor-M2" system's engagement of another drone in the Kursk region demonstrate the ongoing efforts to counter aerial threats. The footage of a targeted strike using thermal and night vision cameras indicates the use of advanced weaponry and precision targeting. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with reports of civilian casualties and forced evacuations. Allegations of war crimes, including the execution of Ukrainian soldiers, further escalate the conflict's severity. The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with discussions on a new strategic partnership between Russia and Iran, continued US military aid to Ukraine, and ongoing diplomatic efforts. The situation in the Kremennaya-Terny area, the Kharkiv, and the Kursk region indicates an intensification of fighting and strategic repositioning of forces. Also, Russian forces liberated Novopustynka and have reportedly completed the clearing of Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast. Diplomatic efforts and discussions are ongoing, with internal tensions within NATO and warnings from the US State Department regarding Belarus. The cyberattack on the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice and reports of inadequate burial practices for Russian soldiers add to the complexity of the situation. The reported increase in arms shipments from North Korea to Russia and the potential targeting of Ukrainian call centers reflect the evolving tactics and alliances in the conflict. Air raid alerts across multiple regions signify a persistent and widespread threat, particularly from drones and missiles. The explosion in Abakan and the financial support from the IMF to Ukraine highlight the broader impacts of the conflict. The overall situation suggests a significant escalation in multiple areas, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the allegations of war crimes highlight the severe and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities. The potential for further escalation, particularly in the southern front, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and volatile nature of the conflict. A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was shown conducting operations in the Kursk region, highlighting ongoing airstrikes. The sinking of the Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major" off the coast of Spain after an explosion adds another layer of complexity to the maritime aspect of the conflict. The landing of an all-female crew in Iran's Mashhad airport may serve as a symbolic gesture in the broader geopolitical context.