Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (December 24, 2024, 09:25 UTC)

Key Developments

Donetsk Oblast

• Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city. They have liberated Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and are advancing on Yantarnoye. They destroyed a bridge over the Volchya River between Konstantinopol and Andreevka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly leaving the city.
• Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve and formed a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka. They also liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. Ukrainian forces withdrew from the "Uspenivka pocket". Clashes continue near Novodarivka, Kostyantynopolske, Rozlyv, Rozdolne, Storozheve, Velyka Novosilka, Novyi Komar, and Novosilka.
• Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces consolidating control and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. They captured two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap and made gains in the Khomkolonka microdistrict. Clashes continue near Toretsk, Dyliyivka, Dachne, Bila Hora, and Scherbynivka.
• Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces controlling over half of the city. They retook positions at the fire-resistant compound and partially dislodged Ukrainian forces. Clashes continue near Stupochky and Predtechyne.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka and have reportedly entered Pisky. They are storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka. High-intensity battles are ongoing near Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novovasylivka, Chumatske, Novyy Trud, Novotroyitske, Novoyelyzavetivka, Novoolenivka, Novopustynka, and Vozdvyzhenka. Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino, reached its outskirts, and liberated Veselyi Gai.
• Kurakhivka Axis: Clashes continue near Kurakhove, Petropavlivka, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Dachne, Kostyantynopil, and Andriyivka.
• Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kotlyne, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Kostyantynopil, and Andriyivka of the Donetsk region.

Kursk Region

• Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka, advancing up to 1200 meters near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Leonidovo, Russkaya Porechnaya, and Kurilovka. They liberated Novoivanovka.
• Russian forces are conducting an offensive on the Kursk front, storming Kruglenkoye, advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
• Heavy fighting continues, with Ukrainian forces conducting unsuccessful counterattacks.
• A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was observed in the region.
• Rylsk came under heavy shelling, reportedly from ATACMS missiles with cluster munitions.
• Ukrainian forces have repelled 46 Russian army assaults.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly installed a Christmas tree in Sudzha.

Kharkiv Oblast

• Russian forces cleared Lozova and are advancing in two directions on the Kupyansk front.
• Kupyansk Direction: Fighting is reported near Zahryzove. Clashes continue near Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Dvorichna, and Bohuslavka.
• Kharkiv Axis: Clashes continue near Vovchansk, Hoptivka, Hlybokoht, Vysoka Yaruhya, and Buhruvatka.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple regions.
• Drone movement (likely Shahed drones) has been detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions, specifically near Nizhyn. A new drone was reported on Kharkiv, with 8 drones in the Izyum district and 2 drones from Poltava Oblast moved to Kharkiv Oblast. Drones are moving west/northwest in the southeast of Kharkiv region. Drones are moving north/northeast in the southwest and northeast of Kharkiv region. One drone is circling near Chuhuiv. One drone is moving towards Dnipro from the northwest. Two drones are reported near Cherkasy, with one west of Pryluky heading towards Cherkasy Oblast. A new enemy drone has been reported in the south of Chernihiv region, moving northwest. The city of Nizhyn (Chernihiv region) is under threat from an enemy drone.
• Ukrainian air defenses shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces attempted to attack a military airfield in Rostov Oblast with eight UAVs.
• Russian forces reportedly used 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
• Russian forces report destroying "Baba Yaga" drones and claim to have intercepted 36 Ukrainian drones, with 23 "locationally lost without negative consequences."
• Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone.
• Ukrainian forces report using drones to target Russian positions in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian Supercam reconnaissance drone over Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces report destroying 8 Russian troops and multiple motorcycles in an attempted assault in the Siversk direction, using drones to detect and target the enemy.
• Ukrainian forces report using drones to target and destroy Russian armored vehicles in the Siversk direction.
• Ukrainian forces report receiving 270 new drones.
• Ukrainian forces report targeting a Russian T-90 tank and ammunition depot in the Kursk region with drones.

Other Regions

• Kremennaya-Terny: Ukrainian forces are intensifying attacks on civilians and infrastructure in Kremenna (LPR). Russian forces advanced in Terny. Clashes continue near Zelenyy Hay, Novoserhiyivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Nadiya, Ivanivka, Terny, Toretsk, Hryhorivka, Druzhelubivka, Dibrovy, and Serebryanka.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian forces report using drones to attack Russian positions in the region. Clashes continue near Novodanylivka, Lobkove, and Bilohirya. Airstrikes were reported at Temyrivka and Stepnohirsk.
• Lyman Axis: Clashes continue near Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Zelenyi Hai, Tverdokhlibove, Nadiya, Novoserhiyivka, Terny, Shyykivka, Serhiyivka, Makiyivka, and Ivanivka.
• Sieversk Axis: Clashes continue near Bilohorivka.
• Kherson Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian assaults.
• Kramatorsk Axis: Clashes near Vasukivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky.
• Orikhiv Axis: Clashes near Novoandriyivka.

Axis Clashes

• Kharkiv Axis: Clashes near Hoptivka, Hlybokoht, Vysoka Yaruhya, Buhruvatka, and Starytsa.
• Kupyansk Axis: Clashes near Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Nova Krystynivka.
• Lyman Axis: Clashes near Zelenyy Hay, Novoserhiyivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Nadiya, Ivanivka, Terny, Toretsk, Hryhorivka, Druzhelubivka, Dibrovy, and Serebryanka.
• Siversk Axis: Clashes near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka, and Vyyimka.
• Kramatorsk Axis: Clashes near Vasukivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky.
• Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Toretsk and Druzhba.
• Pokrovsk Axis: Clashes near Lysivka, Sukha Balka, Promin, Zelene, Ukrayinka, Dachenske, Shevchenko, Novoukrayinka, Pokrovsk, Novovasylivka, Novoyelizavetivka, and Novoolenivka.
• Kurakhivka Axis: Clashes near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Yasenove, Dachne, and towards Andriyivka.
• Vremivka Axis: Clashes near Velyka Novosilka, Kostyantynopilske, Yantarne, Uspenivka, Rozlyvu, Rozdolne, Novosilka, Blahodatne, and Vremivka.
• Orikhiv Axis: Clashes near Novoandriyivka.
• Kherson Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian assaults.
• Kursk Region: Ukrainian forces repelled 27 Russian assaults.

Non-Military Developments

• US Congressional hearings on corruption in Ukraine could block aid for years.
• The Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major" sank off the coast of Spain after an explosion. The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed the sinking and stated that 14 crew members were rescued, and two are missing. New video footage shows the "Ursa Major" sinking, confirming the earlier reports. The video was taken from another vessel that was involved in the rescue operation.
• The Russian Navy is not recorded in the Black Sea or the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 8 enemy ships, of which 3 are Kalibr missile carriers.
• Germany and Denmark transferred 15 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
• The Russian government banned cryptocurrency mining in the occupied territories of Ukraine and in the Caucasus.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over 30 new participants in unlawful military-biological activities in Africa have been identified.
• Testing of unapproved drugs by Americans in Africa has attracted the attention of local media.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US is increasing its military-biological presence in Africa.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the Pentagon has begun active research on dangerous pathogens in Zambia.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US-tested system for biological risks is being used in Africa.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US is expanding its military-biological potential in circumvention of the BTWC.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US sees Africa as a natural reservoir for dangerous pathogens.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that samples of the Ebola virus were illegally taken from Africa to the US.
• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has identified more than 30 new participants involved in illegal US military-biological activities in Africa.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US is actively increasing its military-biological presence in Africa.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the activities are being carried out by research organizations of the US Department of Defense. Branches of the US Navy Medical Center are located in Ghana and Djibouti, where active work is being carried out in natural disease foci, isolation and sequencing of pathogens. The US Army Medical Center in Kenya has a network of field stations.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that in Nigeria in 2024, a joint medical research center and a military-medical laboratory of the armed forces of the republic were created, in which 10 US Department of Defense specialists are permanently included.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that in Senegal, the construction of a new laboratory complex worth $35 million is being completed. The project involves the same Pentagon contractors as in the former Soviet republics - Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the customers of the work in the interests of the military are the US Department of Defense Threat Reduction Office (DTRA), the National Security Agency and the State Department. The US does not disclose the final goals of the experiments to partners.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US, under the guise of monitoring infections and helping developing countries, is building up its military-biological potential.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Americans are particularly concerned about Russia and China's work with the states of the continent to expose the true content of US military-biological programs in connection with the possible restriction of Pentagon activities in this area.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that there is a clear trend: pathogens that fall into the Pentagon's area of interest subsequently become pandemic, and American pharmaceutical companies become the beneficiaries.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that examples are infections such as yellow fever, monkeypox and Rift Valley fever, an outbreak of which was recorded in Cairo at the site of a US Navy military biological laboratory.
• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation confirmed that the ship "Ursa Major" sank as a result of an explosion in the engine room.
• Deputies proposed to fine bloggers for refusing to register in the Roskomnadzor registry. The State Assembly of Bashkortostan proposed introducing fines for bloggers with an audience of more than 10 thousand subscribers who do not register their social networks in a special register of Roskomnadzor. The Russian government is considering fines for bloggers who do not register with Roskomnadzor, the state media regulator. This is seen as a move to further control online information and suppress dissent.
• The Ministry of Finance did not support the idea of a preferential mortgage at 2% for participants in the war in Ukraine. The authors of the initiative assumed that the program would affect about 700 thousand participants in the war and bring more than 1 trillion rubles to the budget through the development of the construction industry. However, the Ministry of Finance rejected the idea.
• An explosion occurred at an explosives factory in Balikesir, Turkey, reportedly killing 13 people and injuring 3. The explosion was so strong that tremors were felt in nearby villages.
• Zelensky confirmed that he offered the Prime Minister of Slovakia compensation for the termination of Russian gas supplies, but he refused.
• A fire broke out in the office of "United Russia" in Arkhangelsk.
• Putin and Aliyev expressed satisfaction with the high level of Russian-Azerbaijani strategic partnership and alliance.
• In the next year, Ukraine will receive about 30 billion euros from the EU.

Updated Situation - December 24, 2024, 09:25 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine has significantly escalated, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces have made substantial advances in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction.

Drone warfare remains a defining feature of the conflict, with new drone threats reported in Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, Chernihiv regions, and Nizhyn.

The humanitarian situation continues to worsen, with reports of civilian casualties and forced evacuations.

Fighting has intensified in the Kremennaya-Terny area, Kharkiv, and the Kursk region.

A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was observed in the Kursk region. The sinking of the Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major" adds complexity to the maritime aspect of the conflict.

Diplomatic tensions are highlighted by discussions about US aid to Ukraine and concerns about corruption.

New Information Analysis

The new messages add the following updates to the situation:

• Military-Biological Activities: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports further details on alleged US military-biological activities in Africa, including specific locations, personnel, and activities. They claim that the US is using these programs to gain a foothold in the region and potentially develop biological weapons. They also claim that the US is exploiting Africa as a source of dangerous pathogens.
• Bloggers in Russia: The Russian government is considering fines for bloggers who do not register with Roskomnadzor, the state media regulator. This is seen as a move to further control online information and suppress dissent.
• Alleged Atrocities in Kursk Region: A captured Ukrainian soldier reportedly confessed to killing civilians in the Kursk region. Another Ukrainian soldier reported orders to shoot civilians if necessary.
• Civilian Evacuation in Kursk Region: Russian forces reportedly evacuated civilians from the Kursk region under fire.
• Drone Attack in Kursk Region: Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
• Casualties in Kursk Region: There are reports of over 3,000 wounded and killed North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region.
• Alleged Suicide of Russian Soldier: A video reportedly shows a Russian soldier killing himself by detonating a grenade.
• Drone Warfare: A video from the Ukrainian 95th Brigade reportedly shows drone strikes on Russian forces, using thermal imaging to identify targets. Extensive drone activity continues, with reports of Ukrainian drones being shot down over Bryansk and Russian drones being shot down over Kherson. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian Supercam reconnaissance drone. Russian forces report destroying Ukrainian drones in the Toretsk direction. Ukrainian forces report destroying 8 Russian troops and motorcycles in the Siversk direction with drones. Ukrainian forces installed a Christmas tree in Sudzha, Kursk region.
• Explosion at an explosives factory in Turkey: An explosion occurred at an explosives factory in Balikesir, Turkey, reportedly killing 13 people and injuring 3.
• Ukrainian forces installed a Christmas tree in Sudzha, Kursk region: This is likely a psychological operation aimed at demoralizing Russian forces and boosting Ukrainian morale.
• Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alerts have been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to drone activity.
• Drone Attack in Berdyansk: A vehicle was reportedly blown up in Berdyansk, with conflicting reports on whether it belonged to a collaborator.
• Drone Ban in LPR: The leader of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic signed a decree banning drone flights in the region, except for those authorized by the military.
• Alleged Assassination Attempt: Reports suggest an alleged assassination attempt on Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Protection troops, with Ukrainian sources claiming responsibility.
• Alleged Espionage: A worker at a Russian defense industry plant was reportedly arrested for spying for Ukraine.
• NATO Assistance: NATO is reportedly supporting psychological rehabilitation programs for Ukrainian soldiers.
• Propaganda: A video from RT depicts a distorted version of Santa Claus, suggesting a propaganda effort to discredit Ukrainian nationalists.
• Economic Aid: The EU plans to produce 2 million artillery shells in 2025, with Ukraine receiving 30 billion euros in aid.
• Portuguese Navy Incident: Portuguese sailors refused to escort a Russian ship due to the poor condition of their vessel, highlighting potential readiness issues within NATO forces.
• Fog in Kyiv: A warning about fog in Kyiv was issued, potentially impacting visibility and transportation.
• Fundraising for Ukrainian Forces: A video shows fundraising efforts for a Ukrainian special forces unit, highlighting the reliance on crowdfunding for equipment.
• Alleged Killing by Wagner Group Member: A former Wagner Group member reportedly killed a woman in St. Petersburg.
• Russian Advances in Hryhorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka: Russian forces reportedly made advances in these areas.

These updates further emphasize the escalating nature of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The increasing use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving tactics in this war. The reports of atrocities and civilian casualties underscore the human cost of the conflict. The explosion at the Turkish factory adds new dimensions to the situation, with potential implications for international relations. The Russian government's continued focus on alleged US military-biological activities in Africa suggests a broader geopolitical struggle. The new information also highlights the increasing pressure on independent media and bloggers in Russia. The installation of a Christmas tree by Ukrainian forces in Sudzha is a symbolic act with potential psychological implications. The air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicate ongoing drone threats in the region. The reports of Russian advances in Hryhorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka, along with the reported destruction of Ukrainian drones, suggest continued fighting on the ground. The alleged assassination attempt and espionage case highlight the covert aspects of the conflict. The EU's planned artillery shell production and financial aid to Ukraine demonstrate continued Western support. The Portuguese Navy incident raises questions about the readiness of some NATO forces. The fundraising efforts for Ukrainian forces underscore the reliance on external support. The alleged killing by a former Wagner Group member highlights the potential for violence from demobilized soldiers.

Major Updates from Older Situations (6 hours to 3 days ago)

Key Developments

• Drone Warfare: Extensive drone activity across multiple regions, including new groups of drones entering Sumy Oblast and reports of Chinese anti-drone technology being introduced. Attacks inside Russia have continued, with drone strikes reported in Belgorod, Voronezh, and Tula Oblasts.
• Russian Advances: Significant Russian advances in Donetsk (Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk) and Kursk (Novoivanovka, Sudzha district, Cherkasskaya Konopelka).
• Chasov Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces controlling over half of the city.
• Other Significant Developments: Reports of North Korean troop involvement, discussions about negotiations, alleged atrocities in Selidovo, alleged liquidation of Colombian mercenaries, and the assassination of a Russian General.

Ground Warfare

Russian Advances

• Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, have entered Pisky, and are consolidating control in Toretsk.
• Kursk Region: Russian forces have liberated Novoivanovka and made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
• Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting along the front line, with numerous engagements reported.

Aerial Warfare

• Extensive Drone Warfare: Widespread drone attacks by both sides, targeting infrastructure, military positions, and equipment.
• Air Defense Interceptions: Russian and Ukrainian air defense systems have intercepted numerous drones. Four Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight, three over Rostov Oblast and one over Voronezh Oblast.

Naval Activity

• Black Sea: 3 Russian ships, carrying up to 24 "Kalibr" missiles.
• Azov Sea: No Russian ships present.
• Mediterranean Sea: 6 Russian ships, 3 carrying up to 25 "Kalibr" missiles.

Regional Analysis

Drone Warfare

• Ukraine: Extensive drone activity across multiple regions, with air defense systems active.
• Russia: Multiple drone attacks reported, with Russian air defense systems intercepting numerous drones.

Ground Warfare

• Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces are making advances, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk.
• Kursk Region: Russian forces have made significant progress, liberating Novoivanovka and advancing in the Sudzha district.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Active combat operations.
• Kharkiv Front: Ukrainian forces are holding back Russian troops.

Naval Activity

• Black Sea: 3 Russian ships, carrying up to 24 "Kalibr" missiles.
• Azov Sea: No Russian ships present.
• Mediterranean Sea: 6 Russian ships, 3 carrying up to 25 "Kalibr" missiles.

The overall situation suggests a significant escalation in multiple areas, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the allegations of war crimes highlight the severe and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities. The potential for further escalation, particularly in the southern front, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and volatile nature of the conflict. The sinking of the Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major" is a significant event, with the Russian Foreign Ministry confirming the incident and ongoing rescue operations. This incident adds a new dimension to the maritime aspect of the conflict.