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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2024-12-24 04:57:47Z
1 year ago
Previous (2024-12-24 04:27:09Z)

Updated Operational Situation Report: December 24, 2024, 04:55 UTC

Executive Summary

Russian forces maintain significant advancements, especially in the Donetsk Oblast, with notable progress in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction. The capture of Storozheve and the development of a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka mark a substantial shift in the Vremivka direction. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. Ukrainian forces report widespread drone activity across multiple regions, including new reports of drones near Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnitsa, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr. Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv city due to reports of drones heading towards the city, but alerts have been lifted in the surrounding oblast. New alerts have also been issued for Mykolaiv, Vinnitsa, Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and forced evacuations. Allegations of war crimes, including the shooting of Ukrainian POWs, further escalate the conflict's severity. The situation in the Kremennaya-Terny area, the Kharkiv and the Kursk region also indicates an intensification of fighting and strategic repositioning of forces. Russian forces have reportedly completed the clearing of Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.

Changes to the Situation - December 24, 2024, 04:55 UTC

Military Developments

  • Drone Warfare:
    • Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv city.
    • Air raid alerts have been lifted in Kyiv oblast.
    • Drone (likely Shahed drones) movement has been detected:
      • From Cherkasy towards Kyiv region.
      • On the border of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad regions, heading west.
      • In Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
      • In Cherkasy region, heading northwest.
      • In Vinnitsa region.
      • East of Zaporizhzhia city.
      • Near Kyiv and Brovary, heading towards Kyiv from the east.
      • In Khmelnytskyi region.
      • 2 drones in the south of Vinnitsa Oblast.
      • 4 drones north of Kyiv.
      • 2 drones in/near Kremenchuk.
      • On Starokostiantyniv from the southeast.
      • On Zhytomyr from the south.
      • On Zhytomyr from the north.
      • On Khmelnytskyi from the south.
    • A hostile drone was heading towards Kyiv from the north.
    • Air raid alerts had been activated and deactivated in Kyiv.
    • Explosions were heard in Kyiv, indicating likely drone impacts or air defense activity.
    • Air defense systems were active in the Kyiv region, engaging and destroying hostile drones.
    • A drone, likely a reconnaissance model, was detected over Zaporizhzhia.
    • Extensive drone activity reported across multiple regions, with Ukrainian air defense neutralizing drones near Kyiv.
    • Air raid alerts issued for Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Pryluky, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Vinnitsa, Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi.
    • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
    • Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
    • Ukrainian Air Force reports increased drone activity in Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as in Kyivska and Chernihivska regions.
    • Mykolaiv Oblast was under threat of enemy drone attacks.
    • Overnight, Russian forces actively attempted to attack Tokmak, Energodar and Melitopol. Ukrainian air defense successfully shot down hostile objects.
    • During the night, 4 more UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare in the Millerovsky and Tarasovsky districts of Rostov Oblast. Russian media sources claim that a total of 12 drones were destroyed in Rostov Oblast, as well as an additional drone in Voronezh Oblast.
    • A new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with support of management for optical fiber started to be used in the zone of special military operation.
  • Donetsk Oblast:
    • Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces destroyed a bridge over the Mokri Yaly river, disrupting Ukrainian logistics.
    • Kurakhove: Russian forces are consolidating their control over approximately 80% of the city. Clashes continue in the central part of the city for the remaining high-rise buildings.
    • Storozheve: The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve.
    • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve and advanced towards Velyka Novosilka, forming a new "pocket" and capturing Novyi Komar.
    • Toretsk: Street fighting divides the city. Russian forces continue attacks along Fabrychna, Rynkova, Svitla, Lesi Ukrainky streets and in the direction of the "Toretska" mine.
    • Ukrainian forces have retaken positions at the fire-resistant compound in Chasiv Yar. There are currently about 150 Ukrainian soldiers at the plant.
    • Chasov Yar: Russian forces reportedly control over half of the city.
    • Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing south of Pokrovsk towards Ukrainka. Russian forces are developing success from the southwest, attacking from the side of Dachenske.
    • Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at multiple locations in the Donetsk region.
    • Russian forces, having liberated Novopustynka, repelled multiple enemy attempts to retake the village and captured 10 Ukrainian soldiers.
    • Russian FPV-drone struck a Ukrainian forces' deployment point on the right bank of the Dnieper.
  • Kremennaya-Terny:
    • Active combat operations near Kremennaya.
    • Russian forces advanced in Terny and expanded their control, pushing towards Borova.
    • Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Kursk Region:
    • Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka and made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Russian forces are advancing in the wooded areas of the Sudzhansky district and up to 1200 meters in the vicinity of Nikolaevo-Daryino, Leonidovo, Russkaya Porechnaya and Kurilovka.
    • Ukrainian reserves transferred to the Kursk region were reportedly destroyed in the Sumy region.
    • Heavy fighting continues in Kursk Oblast. The enemy is carrying out counter-attacks. In the Sudzhansky district, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out 5 unsuccessful counterattacks using "Bradley" BMPs and "M-113" APCs.
  • Kupyansk Direction:
    • Russian troops, supported by armored vehicles, are fighting near Zahryzove. In the northern part of the village, Russian infantry occupied positions in a forest plantation and in a number of buildings.
  • Kharkiv Oblast:
    • Russian forces have reportedly completed the clearing of Lozova and are advancing in two directions on the Kupyansk front.

Axis Clashes

  • Kharkiv Axis: Clashes near Hoptivka, Hlybokoht, Vysoka Yaruhya, Buhruvatka, and Starytsa.
  • Kupyansk Axis: Clashes near Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Nova Krystynivka.
  • Lyman Axis: Clashes near Zelenyy Hay, Novoserhiyivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Nadiya, Ivanivka, Terny, Toretsk, Hryhorivka, Druzhelubivka, Dibrovy, and Serebryanka.
  • Sieversk Axis: Clashes near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka, and Vyyimka.
  • Kramatorsk Axis: Clashes near Vasukivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky.
  • Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Toretsk and Druzhba.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Clashes near Lysivka, Sukha Balka, Promin, Zelene, Ukrayinka, Dachenske, Shevchenko, Novoukrayinka, Pokrovsk, Novovasylivka, Novoyelizavetivka, Novotroitske and Novoolenivka.
  • Kurakhivka Axis: Clashes near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Yasenove, Dachne, and towards Andriyivka. Clashes continue in Kurakhove. To the southwest, Russian forces are advancing on Konstantynopil and expanding the zone of control near Zelenivka.
  • Vremivka Axis: Clashes near Velyka Novosilka, Kostyantynopilske, Yantarne, Uspenivka, Rozlyvu, Rozdolne, Novosilka, Blahodatne, and Vremivka.
  • Orikhiv Axis: Clashes near Novoandriyivka.
  • Kherson Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian assaults.
  • Kursk Region: Ukrainian forces repelled 27 Russian assaults.

Non-Military Developments

  • Allegations of War Crimes:
    • Reports of Ukrainian POWs being shot by the 110th Brigade.
    • Video evidence of the execution of four surrendering Ukrainian soldiers.
  • Diplomatic and Political:
    • US State Department advises American citizens to leave Belarus.
    • NATO Secretary General reportedly asked Zelensky to stop criticizing Scholz over Taurus missiles.
    • Discussions between US and Ukrainian officials on ending the war.
    • NATO to coordinate military aid to Ukraine.
    • Discussions on sending European troops to Ukraine.
    • Video discussion on the future of Georgia, its sovereignty, traditional values, and the failed Western attempt to organize a coup in the country. Experts discuss the unacceptability of the EU's condition for Georgia to sharply worsen relations with Russia, up to military actions, to join the EU. They also discuss the role of Salome Zurabishvili as a state criminal trying to keep Georgia in the zone of Western influence through illegitimate actions.
    • The Russian Council of Ulema of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims revoked the fatwa on polygamy.
  • Cybersecurity:
    • Cyberattack on the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice's registers reported.
  • Other Incidents:
    • In Khakassia, the head of the workshop of the enterprise where two people died from the explosion was detained, the TASS news agency reported in the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation for the region.
    • Shooting incident in Kupiansk resulting in casualties.
    • Reports of Russian soldiers being buried at a former landfill in the Stavropol region.
    • Explosion at a former factory in Abakan, resulting in two deaths and four injuries.
    • IMF provides $1.1 billion in financial support to Ukraine.
    • Russian military claims liberation of Storozheve in Donetsk region.
    • The Russian government has banned mining in 10 Russian regions in the North Caucasus, Donbas and Novorossiya. The ban will be in effect until 2031. In a number of districts of the Irkutsk Oblast, Transbaikalia and Buryatia, a ban on mining is introduced during peak energy consumption periods.
    • Almost 4.4 thousand civilians in Russia have been injured since January as a result of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and almost 800 people, including 50 children, have died.
    • Another 500-kilogram aerial bomb was dropped by a Russian plane onto the Belgorod region. According to ASTRA, the "emergency release" of the FAB-500 occurred on December 21 near the village of Razumnoye-71 in the Belgorod region. There were no casualties or damage. ASTRA editors are aware of at least 163 cases of FAB aerial bombs falling in Russia and in the territories of Ukraine controlled by Russia in 2024. On November 19, a Russian plane dropped a 250-kilogram aerial bomb on a school in the Belgorod region. The UMPB aerial bomb "accidentally descended" on a school in the village of Bykovka in the Yakovlevsky urban district. According to sources, the bomb pierced the roof. As ASTRA previously reported, to counter Ukrainian air defenses, the Russian army began equipping Soviet FAB aerial bombs with UMPC kits. After this update, the FABs are equipped with wings and satellite guidance, allowing the bombs to be launched directly from the territory of the Russian Federation. The Russian army began actively using UMPCs in the spring of this year. And the problem of the updated FABs immediately became apparent - often the bombs simply do not reach Ukraine. On May 4, a Russian plane dropped a FAB-500 on Belgorod, as a result of which 7 people were injured, 31 households and 10 cars were damaged. The authorities hid the reason for the bomb's fall, as well as the fact that it was Russian.
    • US Senator Rand Paul stated that the US authorities spent millions of dollars to support Ukrainian bloggers. Almost 5 million was allocated by Washington to Ukrainian bloggers. "Someone in the State Department considered it a brilliant idea to allocate an additional 4.8 million dollars for an article entitled 'Kyiv, Ukraine, public relations - influencer employees'", Paul was quoted as saying by Responsible Statecraft. "It's strange to see our government spending taxpayers' money on what can be called a pompous selfie festival," the senator noted.
  • Propaganda and Information Warfare:
    • Ukrainian 46th Air Assault Brigade releases a propaganda video.
    • Announcement of Long-Range Aviation Day in Russia.
    • Rumors of a planned Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
    • A quiz is being held among the paratroopers to identify an object and a settlement in a photo of a memorial to Russian airborne troops.
  • Humanitarian Efforts:
    • Continued need for humanitarian aid and support for affected populations.
    • From the liberated villages of the Kurakhove direction, Russian soldiers are evacuating the civilian population.
  • Economic Impact:
    • Disruption of gas transit through Ukraine and potential targeting of industrial facilities.
  • Naval Activity:
    • The Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major" sank off the coast of Spain after an explosion. It was initially believed that the ship was sailing to Syria, but analysts found that it was transporting hatches for the nuclear reactor of a nuclear icebreaker and two port mobile cranes with a lifting capacity of up to 120 tons each to Vladivostok.
    • The Russian Navy is not recorded either in the Black Sea or in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea there are 8 enemy ships, of which 3 are Kalibr missile carriers, with a total of 25 missiles.
  • Space Activity:
    • Roscosmos and NASA have synchronized the estimated dates for the completion of the flight of the International Space Station, said Yuri Borisov.
  • Other:
    • Germany, together with Denmark, transferred another 15 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, and Berlin also sent another IRIS-T air defense system.

Updated Situation - December 24, 2024, 04:55 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine intensifies with significant Russian advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction. The capture of Storozheve and the advance towards Velyka Novosilka, along with the destruction of a bridge over the Mokri Yaly river, represent a substantial shift in the Vremivka direction. Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature, with widespread drone activity across multiple regions. New drone threats are reported in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnitsa, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr and Starokostiantyniv, with air raid alerts issued in Kyiv and deactivated in the surrounding oblast. New alerts have also been issued for Mykolaiv, Vinnitsa, Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr. The humanitarian situation is worsening, with reports of civilian casualties and forced evacuations. Allegations of war crimes, including the shooting of Ukrainian POWs, further escalate the severity of the conflict. The situation in the Kremennaya-Terny area, the Kharkiv and the Kursk region indicates an intensification of fighting and strategic repositioning of forces. Also, Russian forces liberated Novopustynka and have reportedly completed the clearing of Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast. Diplomatic efforts and discussions are ongoing, with internal tensions within NATO and warnings from the US State Department regarding Belarus. The cyberattack on the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice and reports of inadequate burial practices for Russian soldiers add to the complexity of the situation. The reported increase in arms shipments from North Korea to Russia and the potential targeting of Ukrainian call centers reflect the evolving tactics and alliances in the conflict. Air raid alerts across multiple regions signify a persistent and widespread threat, particularly from drones and missiles. The explosion in Abakan and the financial support from the IMF to Ukraine highlight the broader impacts of the conflict. The overall situation suggests a significant escalation in multiple areas, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the allegations of war crimes highlight the severe and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities. The potential for further escalation, particularly in the southern front, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and volatile nature of the conflict.

Previous (2024-12-24 04:27:09Z)

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