Major Military Situation Updates - December 23, 2024, 11:25 UTC

Executive Summary

Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk Oblast, with major gains in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction. The capture of Storozheve and the development of a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka represent a major shift in the Vremivka direction. Drone warfare remains a dominant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. Ukrainian forces report extensive drone activity across various regions, including Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltova, and others. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating, with civilian casualties reported in Kharkiv and forced evacuations in Toretsk and Razdolnoye. Reports of war crimes, including the shooting of Ukrainian POWs, further escalate the conflict's severity. The situation in the Kremennaya-Terny area and the Kursk region indicates intensified fighting and strategic repositioning of forces.

Key Developments - December 23, 2024, 11:25 UTC

Donetsk Oblast

Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces destroyed a bridge over the Mokri Yaly river, disrupting Ukrainian logistics.
Kurakhove: Russian forces are consolidating their control over approximately 80% of the city.
Storozheve: The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve. Russian forces captured Storozheve and advanced towards Velyka Novosilka, forming a new "pocket" and capturing Novyi Komar.
Toretsk: Street fighting divides the city.
Chasov Yar: Russian forces reportedly control over half of the city.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing south of Pokrovsk towards Ukrainka.
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at multiple locations in the Donetsk region.
A Ukrainian command post and personnel concentration near the Toretsk mine were destroyed.
Russian forces destroyed a bridge over the Volchya River between Konstantinopol and Andreevka, further degrading Ukrainian logistics to the west of Kurakhovo.
The liberation of Uspenovka has been completed.
Russian forces are developing an offensive towards Dimitrov.
Russian forces improved their tactical position, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses, including 145 soldiers in the past 24 hours.
Russian forces are solidifying positions east of highway M-30, pushing towards Novoukrainka, attacking towards Dachnoye and Zelenoye, and advancing near Novotroitskoye and south of Voznesenka.
Near Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces are attacking from both sides, attempting to reach the Velyka Novosilka-Huliaipole road.
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Serhiyivka, Terny, Ivanivka, Fedorivka, Riznykivka, Vyyimka, Serebryanka, Vasukivka, Pazeno, Romanivka, Velyka Novosilka of Donetsk region.
"Center" group inflicted up to 520 casualties on Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
Drone operators disrupted a Ukrainian unit's rotation in the Kurakhovo direction.
Video footage from the drone of the Security Service of Ukraine shows the destruction of a Russian ammunition depot near Markine.
High-intensity battles are reported in the areas of northern Shevchenko, Peschanoye, Novovasilevka, Novooleenovka, Ukrainka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, and southern Shevchenko.
Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino, reached its outskirts, and liberated Veselyi Gai.
The Russian advance on the southern approach to Krasnoarmeisk has extended over 700 meters, reaching the central part of Lysivka.
Russian forces are actively attacking Krasnoarmeisk.
New: Russian forces have reportedly encircled Ukrainian forces in Makarivka, south of Velyka Novosilka.
New: Video evidence suggests a Russian soldier was targeted and killed by Ukrainian forces using a thermal-scoped weapon, likely a drone-dropped munition, during a nighttime operation. The location and involved units are not specified.
New: A video, allegedly from February 25, 2022, shows the aftermath of an ambush by the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade against a Russian National Guard column near Staryi Saltiv. The video was reportedly filmed by a Russian soldier.
New: Ukrainian forces, specifically the 4th Operational Purpose Brigade "Syla Svobody", reportedly repelled a Russian assault using a combination of circular defense tactics and drone support. Details regarding the location and specific units involved on the Russian side are not provided.

Kremennaya-Terny

Active combat operations near Kremennaya.
Russian forces advanced in Terny and expanded their control, pushing towards Borova.
Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.

Kursk Region

Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka and made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Ukrainian reserves transferred to the Kursk region were reportedly destroyed in the Sumy region.
Heavy fighting continues along the front line. The hottest point was Kursk, with 57 clashes.
Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area.
Paratroopers of the 76th division of the Airborne Forces are storming the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Mykolaivka.
HIMARS Strike: Ukrainian forces reportedly used two HIMARS missiles with cluster munitions against groups of North Korean special forces near Mala Loknia and Kruhlenke, resulting in heavy losses.
The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
Russian assault groups are advancing in Kruhlenke and have made progress in Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
New: Ukrainian reserves being transferred to the Kursk region were reportedly destroyed in the Sumy region.
New: Paratroopers of the 76th division of the Airborne Forces are storming the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Mykolaivka.
New: The "Sever" group of forces is conducting fierce battles along the entire front line.
New: Russian assault groups advanced in Kruhlenke and made progress in Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
New: HIMARS Strike: Ukrainian forces reportedly used two HIMARS missiles with cluster munitions against groups of North Korean special forces near Mala Loknia and Kruhlenke, resulting in heavy losses.
New: Russian Defense Ministry reports that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces lost over 300 troops, two tanks (including one U.S.-made Abrams), three infantry fighting vehicles (including one U.S.-made Bradley, one German-made Marder, and one Swedish-made CV-90), three armored fighting vehicles (including one U.S.-made Stryker and two M113s), three armored fighting vehicles, one artillery gun, four mortars, one U.S.-made M88 armored recovery vehicle, and eight motor vehicles in the Kursk direction.

Kharkiv Region

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy unsuccessfully stormed the positions of our units six times in the areas of Kozacha Lopan, Vysokaya Yaruga and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, four enemy attacks took place during the day. The Defense Forces repelled the enemy's assault actions near Petropavlivka and Kruhlyakivka.
Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian forces liberated Lozovaya.
Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian tank T-72 in the Kharkiv region with a drone.
One Ukrainian soldier was killed, and another injured in Kupiansk due to shelling by Russian forces.
A Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man walking down the street in Kupyansk.
Explosive strikes reported in the region.
One clash occurred near Vovchansk.
Russian forces conducted 3 airstrikes with 23 unguided aerial rockets (NARs) and 27 drone strikes.
Russian forces carried out 28 shellings of Ukrainian positions.
Ukrainian forces inflicted losses on Russian forces, including 54 troops (16 killed, 38 wounded), 42 pieces of equipment destroyed or damaged, and 59 shelters destroyed.
A Russian attack drone unit successfully eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area in the Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian forces were reportedly killed by Russian drones near Kharkiv.
Russian forces reportedly used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk.
Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade, operating heavy night bombers, are reported to have destroyed enemy personnel and a truck in the Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
In the Kupyansk area, fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle in the Kharkiv region.
In the Kupyansk area, fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
A Leopard tank was destroyed in the Kupyansk Direction.
New: Ukrainian forces, specifically the Spear Group of the 118th Territorial Defense Brigade, reportedly repelled a Russian assault using drones to target and destroy Russian armored vehicles in the Siversk direction. The video evidence suggests the use of FPV drones and possibly drone-dropped munitions.

Drone Warfare

Extensive drone activity reported across multiple regions, with Ukrainian air defense neutralizing drones near Kyiv.
Air raid alerts issued for Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Pryluky, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Dnipro.
Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
Ukrainian Air Force reports increased drone activity in Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as in Kyivska and Chernihivska regions.
Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
New: 1 new drone reported on Kharkiv. 8 drones in the Izyum district. 2 drones from Poltava Oblast moved to Kharkiv Oblast.
New: Drones in the southeast of Kharkiv region are moving west/northwest.
New: Drones in the southwest and northeast of Kharkiv region are moving north/northeast.
New: A drone in the north of Dnipropetrovsk region is moving north/southeast.
New: 1 drone is circling near Chuhuiv.
New: A drone is moving towards Dnipro from the northwest.
New: Drones in the southwest and northeast of Kharkiv region are moving north/northeast.
New: Two drones are reported near Cherkasy, one west of Pryluky heading towards Cherkasy Oblast.
New: Confirmed reports of a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone being destroyed on the Kherson front. Video evidence shows the drone being targeted and destroyed using a thermal imaging scope.
New: A video report details the destruction of two Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones on the Kherson front, captured using thermal imaging. The report emphasizes the drones' thermal signature as a vulnerability.
New: Video evidence confirms the use of drones by the Ukrainian 4th Operational Purpose Brigade "Syla Svobody" in repelling a Russian assault. Details regarding the location are not specified.

Axis Clashes

Kharkiv Axis: Clashes near Hoptivka, Hlybokoht, Vysoka Yaruhya, Buhruvatka, and Starytsa.
Kupyansk Axis: Clashes near Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Nova Krystynivka.
Lyman Axis: Clashes near Zelenyy Hay, Novoserhiyivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Nadiya, Ivanivka, Terny, Toretsk, Hryhorivka, Druzhelubivka, Dibrovy, and Serebryanka.
Sieversk Axis: Clashes near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka, and Vyyimka.
Kramatorsk Axis: Clashes near Vasukivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky.
Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Toretsk and Druzhba.
Pokrovsk Axis: Clashes near Lysivka, Sukha Balka, Promin, Zelene, Ukrayinka, Dachenske, Shevchenko, Novoukrayinka, Pokrovsk, Novovasylivka, Novoyelizavetivka, and Novoolenivka.
Kurakhivka Axis: Clashes near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Yasenove, Dachne, and towards Andriyivka.
Vremivka Axis: Clashes near Velyka Novosilka, Kostyantynopilske, Yantarne, Uspenivka, Rozlyvu, Rozdolne, Novosilka, Blahodatne, and Vremivka.
Orikhiv Axis: Clashes near Novoandriyivka.
Kherson Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian assaults.
Kursk Region: Ukrainian forces repelled 27 Russian assaults.
New: Fighting reported near Novovasilivka, with a Russian soldier reportedly targeted by Ukrainian forces on the eastern outskirts of the settlement.

Allegations of War Crimes

Reports of Ukrainian POWs being shot by the 110th Brigade.
Video evidence of the execution of four surrendering Ukrainian soldiers.
A captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians in the Kursk region. Another Ukrainian soldier reported orders to shoot civilians if necessary.
Alleged Atrocities by Mercenaries: A Brazilian mercenary admitted to killing two Russian soldiers, a father and son, during combat in the Kursk region.

Other Key Incidents

Kyiv: Missile and drone strikes hit multiple districts, causing fires and damage. One fatality and fourteen injuries reported.
Kharkiv: A strike reported in the Kyiv district, with no casualties yet. Another strike in the Solonitsiv community caused a fire in a non-residential building.
Kharkiv: A "Geran" drone hit a high-rise building. Four people injured, including a 12-year-old girl.
Rylsk Shelling: Heavy shelling reported, with at least five killed and up to 30 injured. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
Drone Warfare: Widespread drone activity across Ukraine, with specific movements and engagements reported. Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
Explosions reported in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kremenchuk, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Kherson, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv.
New: A soldier with the callsign "Khuligan" from the Russian 68th Army Corps' "Kaira" UAV unit reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle using an FPV drone.

Diplomatic and Political Developments

US State Department advises American citizens to leave Belarus.
NATO Secretary General reportedly asked Zelensky to stop criticizing Scholz over Taurus missiles.
Discussions between US and Ukrainian officials on ending the war.
NATO to coordinate military aid to Ukraine.
Discussions on sending European troops to Ukraine.
Lukashenko announced an upcoming meeting with Putin and a visit to China.
New: An advisor to the head of the office of Zelensky, Sergey Leshchenko, stated that negotiations with Russia are inevitable and that Ukraine should be prepared for them in light of a potential Trump victory in the US elections.
New: The Russian Football Premier League has nominated Alexander Dyukov for the presidency of the Russian Football Union.
New: The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reported that a former employee of the Kherson pre-trial detention center has been charged with treason and collaborationism. He allegedly worked for the occupiers in the captured facility, guarding illegally detained individuals.

Economic and Logistical Impacts

IMF provides $1.1 billion in financial support to Ukraine.
Disruption of gas transit through Ukraine and potential targeting of industrial facilities.
The head of the Development Corporation of the Kursk region was detained for embezzling over 173 million rubles during the construction of fortifications.
A gas pipe was damaged in Rylsk, disrupting gas supplies to several houses.
Heat supply has been disrupted in 88 houses due to the shelling.
17 objects of cultural heritage in Rylsk were damaged as a result of the shelling.
14 residents of Rylsk are being treated in the Kursk Regional Clinical Hospital, with minor injuries.
New: Putin emphasized the need for a smooth transition to new national projects starting January 1st without delays.
New: Putin instructed to fine-tune preferential credit programs in Russia.
New: The safe daily consumption of caviar is reported to be 4 teaspoons or 20-25 grams, due to its high salt content. Doctors recommend combining it with light and low-fat foods.
New: The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine warned of vehicle accumulation at the "Korchova" and "Medyka" border crossings on the entry to Ukraine from Poland. They recommend choosing less congested crossing points to reduce waiting times.

Cybersecurity

Cyberattack on the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice's registers reported.

Propaganda and Information Warfare

Ukrainian 46th Air Assault Brigade releases a propaganda video.
Announcement of Long-Range Aviation Day in Russia.
Rumors of a planned Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
New: The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) delivered a new batch of Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces. The number of aircraft delivered was not disclosed.
New: The British Army has reportedly successfully used a "drone killer" radio frequency directed energy weapon, capable of neutralizing targets up to 1000 meters away at a cost of 10 pence per shot, according to The Telegraph.
New: The "ZOV LNR" team delivered water heating equipment to a military hospital in the LPR.
New: A video circulating online, reportedly from a Russian soldier's perspective, shows the destruction of a village. The soldiers in the video mockingly refer to the destroyed area as having been inhabited by "Europeans."
New: The Telegram channel "ЗаТелеком" (IT expert Mikhail Klimarev) reported that YouTube is de facto blocked in Russia, with traffic currently at 20% of normal levels.

Humanitarian Efforts

Continued need for humanitarian aid and support for affected populations.
New: The Southern Regional Center of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War participated in a meeting with families of missing and captured Ukrainian soldiers in Kropyvnytskyi. The meeting was organized by the International Committee of the Red Cross and involved representatives of the police, territorial recruitment centers, and NGOs.

Updated Situation Analysis

The conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, with significant developments across multiple fronts. In the Donetsk region, Russian forces have made substantial advances, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction. The encirclement of Makarivka and the destruction of a bridge over the Mokri Yaly river mark a significant shift in the Vremivka direction, potentially isolating Ukrainian forces in the area. The continued use of drone warfare by both sides underscores its importance in reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. The destruction of a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone and reports of extensive drone activity across Ukraine, including new sightings near Cherkasy and Pryluky, highlight the ongoing "drone war."

The humanitarian situation remains dire, with reports of civilian casualties, forced evacuations, and allegations of war crimes further intensifying the conflict. The situation in the Kremennaya-Terny area and the Kursk region suggests an escalation in fighting and strategic repositioning of forces. The reported losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction, including the destruction of U.S.-supplied Abrams and Bradley vehicles, indicate the intensity of the clashes and the involvement of advanced weaponry.

Diplomatic efforts and discussions are ongoing, with internal tensions within NATO and warnings from the US State Department regarding Belarus. The cyberattack on the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice and reports of inadequate burial practices for Russian soldiers add to the complexity of the situation.

Air raid alerts across multiple regions signify a persistent and widespread threat, particularly from drones and missiles. The overall situation indicates a significant escalation in multiple areas, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the allegations of war crimes highlight the severe and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities. The potential for further escalation, particularly in the southern front, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and volatile nature of the conflict.

The new reports of a potential Russian offensive towards Kherson, coupled with the alleged leak of information about such plans, add another layer of complexity to the situation. The reported Ukrainian drone strikes near Kyiv and the continued air raid alerts emphasize the ongoing threat to the capital and surrounding regions. The destruction of two Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones on the Kherson front, captured using thermal imaging, and the successful use of a "drone killer" radio frequency directed energy weapon by the British Army, highlight the evolving technological landscape of the conflict and the increasing importance of counter-drone measures.

The delivery of new Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces, along with the reported encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Makarivka and the destruction of a bridge over the Volchya River, further demonstrate the ongoing intensification of the conflict and the Russian military's efforts to strengthen their positions and disrupt Ukrainian logistics. The reported use of FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian armored vehicles and the repelling of a Russian assault using drones by Ukrainian forces underscore the growing role of unmanned aerial vehicles in shaping the battlefield.

The alleged involvement of North Korean ballistic missiles, as reported by Defense Express, adds another dimension to the conflict, potentially increasing the range and destructive power of the Russian arsenal. The reported damage to the "Kadamovsky" military training ground in the Rostov region, along with the downing of drones and a missile near military facilities, suggests that Ukrainian forces are attempting to strike targets deep within Russian territory.

The reported discussions between US and Ukrainian officials on ending the war, along with statements from Ukrainian officials about the inevitability of negotiations with Russia, indicate that diplomatic efforts are ongoing, albeit with significant challenges. The economic situation, with the IMF providing financial support to Ukraine and Putin's emphasis on economic stability and new national projects, highlights the importance of economic factors in sustaining the war effort.

The propaganda and information warfare dimension of the conflict remains significant, with both sides using various channels to shape public opinion and boost morale. The reported blocking of YouTube in Russia, along with the promotion of a calendar featuring Ukrainian special forces, demonstrates the ongoing efforts to control the information landscape and project an image of strength and determination.

The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with reports of civilian casualties, forced evacuations, and damage to infrastructure. The involvement of the International Committee of the Red Cross in meetings with families of missing and captured Ukrainian soldiers underscores the ongoing need for humanitarian assistance and support.

Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and complex, with multiple actors, shifting frontlines, and evolving tactics. The coming weeks and months will likely see further escalation and intensification of the conflict, with significant implications for regional and global security. The combination of military, economic, diplomatic, and informational factors will continue to shape the trajectory of the war and the prospects for a resolution.

Situation Report