Archived operational intelligence briefing
Donetsk Oblast: The situation in the Donetsk Oblast remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant advances across multiple axes. The capture of Storozheve and the advance towards Velyka Novosilka in the Vremivka direction represent a notable shift, forming a new "pocket" and further threatening Ukrainian positions. The intensification of fighting in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk indicates a focused Russian offensive aimed at securing key locations in the region.
Drone Warfare: The continued and extensive use of drones by both sides underscores a significant evolution in the conflict's tactics. Drones are being deployed for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks, highlighting their crucial role in shaping battlefield dynamics. Ukrainian forces' successful use of drones to destroy a Russian ammunition depot near Markine demonstrates their effectiveness in countering Russian logistics. The Ukrainian Air Force reports increased drone activity in Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as in Kyivska and Chernihivska regions, with the threat of drone attacks remaining high.
Kremennaya-Terny: The active combat operations and Russian advances in Terny, coupled with the expansion of control by up to 400 meters, signify an escalation in this area. The reported transfer of Ukrainian reserves to Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast suggests an attempt to counter Russian advances and stabilize the front.
Kursk Region: The liberation of Novoivanovka and advances in the Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka by Russian forces indicate a significant offensive push in the Kursk region. The reported destruction of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region further highlights the intensity of the conflict in this area.
Humanitarian Situation: The reports of civilian casualties in Kharkiv and the evacuation of civilians from Toretsk and Razdolnoye near Velyka Novosilka reflect the deteriorating humanitarian situation. These incidents underscore the impact of the conflict on the civilian population and the challenges in providing safety and aid.
Allegations of War Crimes: The reported shooting of Ukrainian POWs by the 110th Brigade and the execution of four Ukrainian soldiers after surrendering on the Donetsk front, if confirmed, represent serious violations of international law. These incidents could have significant implications for the conduct of hostilities and the treatment of prisoners of war.
Propaganda and Information Warfare: The renaming of Sontsovka to Krasnoye and the deployment of propaganda leaflets by Russian artillery units indicate ongoing efforts to shape the narrative and influence public perception. These actions are part of a broader information warfare strategy aimed at demoralizing the enemy and bolstering domestic support.
Drone Activity in Poltava and Myrhorod: The report of drone activity in these areas suggests an expansion of the conflict's geographical scope. This could indicate Russian efforts to target new areas or disrupt Ukrainian operations further from the front lines.
NATO Secretary General's Call: The NATO Secretary General's call for Zelensky to stop criticizing Scholz over the refusal to supply Taurus missiles reflects the internal tensions within the alliance regarding the level and type of military support for Ukraine. This could impact the cohesion and effectiveness of international support for Ukraine.
US State Department Warning on Belarus: The US State Department's warning for American citizens to leave Belarus immediately highlights the perceived instability and risk in the region. This could be linked to Belarus's support for Russia's war in Ukraine and the potential for further escalation or civil unrest.
Reported Russian Offensive Plans: The widespread dissemination of information on Ukrainian channels about a planned Russian offensive on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, particularly near Piatykhatky, could be part of a psychological operation to induce fear or preemptively justify future actions.
Cyberattack on Ukrainian Ministry of Justice: The cyberattack on the Ministry of Justice's registers, with entry through a highest-level account, indicates a significant security breach. This could compromise sensitive information and disrupt governmental functions, impacting both civilian and military operations.
Alleged Russian Troop Burial on Landfill: The report of Russian soldiers being buried at a former landfill in the Stavropol region, if true, could significantly impact the morale of Russian troops and their families. It also raises questions about the treatment of war dead and the respect for military casualties.
Increased Arms Shipments from North Korea to Russia: The reported increase in arms shipments from North Korea to Russia, including artillery shells and ballistic missiles, signifies a deepening military alliance between the two countries. This could significantly enhance Russia's military capabilities in Ukraine.
Potential Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Call Centers: The concern over potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian call centers, allegedly linked to the SBU and GUR, suggests that these centers might be involved in intelligence or counter-intelligence operations. This could lead to an escalation in targeting civilian infrastructure.
Explosion in Abakan: The explosion at a former factory in Abakan, resulting in two deaths and four injuries, highlights the potential for industrial accidents or sabotage in areas far from the front lines. This incident could divert resources and attention away from the main conflict zones.
IMF Funding to Ukraine: The receipt of $1.1 billion from the IMF by Ukraine, as announced by Prime Minister Shmygal, provides significant financial support for the country. These funds are intended to cover critical budget expenditures, which could include defense spending.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyivska, Chernihivska, Cherkaska, Dnipropetrovska, and Kirovohradska regions due to the threat of drone and missile attacks. This indicates an ongoing and widespread threat to these areas.
Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially announced the liberation of Storozheve in the Donetsk region. This claim, if true, represents a significant gain for Russian forces in the area.
Propaganda Video: A video released by the Ukrainian 46th Air Assault Brigade, showing drone footage of the destruction of Russian positions and personnel, serves as a propaganda tool to boost morale and demonstrate Ukrainian military effectiveness.
Announcement of Long-Range Aviation Day: The announcement of the Day of Long-Range Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, celebrated on December 23rd, highlights the importance of strategic aviation in Russia's military doctrine. This could be used to boost morale and showcase Russia's air power capabilities.
Potential Escalation in the South: Reports and rumors of a planned Russian offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, particularly near Piatykhatky, suggest a potential escalation in the southern front. This could lead to increased fighting and further strain on both sides' resources.
Cybersecurity Concerns: The reported cyberattack on the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice's registers underscores the ongoing threat to critical infrastructure and government systems. This highlights the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures to protect sensitive information and maintain operational continuity.
Humanitarian Efforts: The mention of humanitarian aid and the involvement of organizations like the Red Cross reflect the ongoing need for support to affected populations. This includes addressing issues of displacement, food security, and medical care.
Information Warfare: The conflicting reports and claims from both sides, including allegations of war crimes, highlight the intense information warfare accompanying the physical conflict. This underscores the importance of verifying information and understanding the narratives being promoted by each side.
International Involvement: The discussions about sending European troops to Ukraine and NATO's coordination of military aid highlight the international dimension of the conflict. This could lead to further escalation or a broader involvement of other countries.
Economic Impact: The disruption of gas transit through Ukraine and the potential targeting of industrial facilities like the Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery indicate the economic impact of the conflict. This could affect energy supplies, trade, and overall economic stability in the region.
The conflict in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with Russian forces making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The capture of Storozheve and the advance towards Velyka Novosilka represent a notable shift in the Vremivka direction, with the encirclement of a Ukrainian unit in Makarivka. The extensive use of drones by both sides continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with significant implications for reconnaissance, targeting, and combat operations. The humanitarian situation is worsening, with reports of civilian casualties and forced evacuations. Allegations of war crimes, including the shooting of POWs, further escalate the severity of the conflict. The situation in the Kremennaya-Terny area and the Kursk region also indicates an intensification of fighting and strategic repositioning of forces. The increased drone activity in new areas like Poltava and Myrhorod, along with the cyberattack on Ukrainian government systems and reports of inadequate burial practices for Russian soldiers, add to the complexity of the situation. The international dimension, including NATO's internal tensions, the US warning on Belarus, and increased arms shipments from North Korea to Russia, further complicate the geopolitical landscape. The reported increase in arms shipments from North Korea to Russia and the potential targeting of Ukrainian call centers reflect the evolving tactics and alliances in the conflict. Air raid alerts across multiple regions signify a persistent and widespread threat, particularly from drones and missiles. The explosion in Abakan and the financial support from the IMF to Ukraine highlight the broader impacts of the conflict, both within Russia and internationally.
The overall situation suggests a significant escalation in multiple areas, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the allegations of war crimes highlight the severe and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities. The potential for further escalation, particularly in the southern front, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and volatile nature of the conflict.
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