Major Military Situation Updates - December 22, 2024, 03:55 UTC
Key Developments
Drone Warfare
Continued Drone Activity: Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict.
Several groups of attack drones are moving in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, in the direction of Chernihiv Oblast.
An air raid alert was issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to drone activity and has since been lifted.
Reports of drone movements and engagements continue across multiple regions in Ukraine, including Kyiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Poltava Oblasts.
Introduction of Chinese Anti-Drone Technology: A Chinese company, Anwei, has introduced a portable individual FPV-drone jammer, the AT-623. This device suppresses FPV drone frequencies with a range of 150 meters and a response time of 2 seconds. It is equipped with a replaceable lithium-ion battery, providing 30 minutes of continuous use at full power and weighs 1.6 kg.
Russian Drone Attacks: Multiple drone attacks were reported in Kazan, Tatarstan, with at least six impacts. Fires were reported in multiple districts, leading to evacuations. Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted numerous Ukrainian drones across various regions.
Ground Warfare: Russian Advances Continue
Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk.
Kurakhove: Russian forces have reportedly liberated Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe) and Zelenovka and are pushing Ukrainian forces out of high-rise buildings in the center of Kurakhove. Heavy fighting continues in the industrial zone and for Yantarnoye.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing south of Pokrovsk towards Ukrainka and have reportedly entered Pisky. High-intensity battles are reported near several settlements, with Russian forces storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka. Another Canadian "Roshel Senator" armored vehicle was reported destroyed in the Pokrovsk direction.
Toretsk: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. They have made advances in the Khomkolonka microdistrict and near the small mine No. 10 spoil heap.
Kursk Region: Russian forces have fully liberated Novoivanovka and are advancing in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was shown carrying out a likely bombing mission in the Kursk region, indicating continued air operations targeting Ukrainian positions.
Other Significant Developments
Activity of Russian Tactical Aviation: Activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported on the south-eastern direction, with a threat of the use of aviation weapons for front-line areas.
Guided Bomb Strikes in Donetsk: Russian tactical aviation launched guided bomb strikes in the Donetsk region.
US Cruiser Mistakenly Shoots Down F/A-18: A US Navy cruiser mistakenly shot down an F/A-18 fighter jet over the Red Sea during airstrikes on Houthi targets. Both pilots were rescued, with one sustaining minor injuries.
Destruction of Ukrainian Military Equipment: Another Canadian "Roshel Senator" armored vehicle was reported destroyed in the Pokrovsk direction. A Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the Vremivka direction.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued and subsequently lifted in several regions, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. A new alert was issued for Sumy Oblast due to drone activity.
Negotiations: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Kyiv will be in a weakened position in negotiations with Russia if the US stops providing aid. A retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel, Daniel Davis, suggested that attacks on Russian cities could worsen Ukraine's position in negotiations, as they anger Russian citizens and leadership without having a significant military effect.
Alleged Atrocities in Selidovo: Reports have emerged alleging that Ukrainian forces have committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
Alleged Liquidation of Colombian Mercenaries: Russian forces reportedly liquidated a unit of Colombian mercenaries near the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR).
North Korean Troops: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict, suffering losses, and reportedly mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces.
NATO to Coordinate Military Aid to Ukraine: NATO has reportedly taken over the coordination of military aid to Ukraine from the US.
Mass Desertions in the British Army: Over 15,000 British military personnel reportedly left the armed forces in October, despite a record pay raise.
Memorial Song for Fallen Soldiers: A song was recorded and shared in memory of Russian soldiers from the "North Group" who died in the Kursk and Kharkov regions.
Regional Analysis
Drone Warfare
Ukraine
Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Tatarbunary, Bila Tserkva, Belyayevka, Borispil, Kryvyi Rih, Myrhorod, Shostka, Pryluky, Kremenchuk, Okhtyrka, Shepetivka, Smila, Kamianske, Izium, and Ukrainka.
Several groups of attack drones are moving in the northern part of Sumy Oblast in the direction of Chernihiv Oblast.
Air Defense and Countermeasures: Ukrainian air defenses have shot down numerous "Shahed" UAVs and drones of other types across multiple regions. Anti-aircraft units are active near Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, and Chernihiv.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued and subsequently lifted in several regions. A new alert was issued for Sumy Oblast due to drone activity, and the alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.
Russia
Drone Attacks: Multiple drone attacks were reported in Kazan, Tatarstan, with at least six impacts and fires in multiple districts. Explosions were also reported in Sochi, with Russian air defense systems active.
Air Defense Interceptions: Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted numerous Ukrainian drones across multiple regions.
Ground Warfare
Donetsk Oblast
Chasov Yar: Russian forces control over half of Chasov Yar, with fighting continuing on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound.
Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk): Russian forces are consolidating control and advancing near Dzerzhinsk.
Pokrovsk Direction: High-intensity battles are reported near several settlements, with Russian forces advancing towards Andreyevka.
Kurakhovo Direction: Russian forces have liberated Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe) and Zelenovka. Heavy fighting is reported as Russian forces push Ukrainian forces into the industrial zone and towards the thermal power station (TES). Battles are ongoing for Yantarnoye.
Vremivka Direction: Russian forces raised a flag in Novyi Komar and continue to expand the zone of control towards Velikaya Novoselka. A Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle was destroyed in this area.
Kursk Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces fully liberated Novoivanovka and are advancing in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was shown carrying out a likely bombing mission, targeting Ukrainian infantry and a stronghold.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Assault operations are reported near Kamenskoye and north of Nesterianka.
Kharkiv Front
One clash occurred near Vovchansk. Russian forces conducted airstrikes and drone strikes, along with shellings of Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces conducted a fully robotized attack using only ground and FPV drones in the Lipstsi area.
Naval Activity
Black Sea: 3 Russian ships, carrying up to 24 "Kalibr" missiles.
Azov Sea: No Russian ships present.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 Russian ships, 3 carrying up to 25 "Kalibr" missiles.
Strategic Implications
Russian Advances: Continued Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, indicate a sustained offensive aimed at achieving significant territorial gains. The bombing mission by the Su-34 in Kursk further reinforces this offensive posture.
Drone Warfare: The persistent use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict. The introduction of the Chinese anti-drone technology, the AT-623, signifies an advancement in counter-drone warfare, potentially altering the dynamics of drone usage on the battlefield.
Humanitarian Concerns: Reports of alleged atrocities in Selidovo and the continued fighting in populated areas raise humanitarian concerns.
Negotiations: The discussions about negotiations and the potential weakening of Ukraine's position due to continued attacks on Russian cities add another layer of complexity to the conflict.
Accidental Shootdown: The accidental downing of a US F/A-18 by a US Navy cruiser highlights the risks and potential for error in complex military operations, especially in contested airspace.
Changes from Previous Situation (approximately 30 minutes ago)
US Cruiser Mistakenly Shoots Down F/A-18: A US Navy cruiser mistakenly shot down an F/A-18 fighter jet over the Red Sea.
Memorial Song for Fallen Soldiers: A song was recorded in memory of Russian soldiers from the "North Group" who died in the Kursk and Kharkov regions.
Mass Desertions in the British Army: Over 15,000 British military personnel reportedly left the armed forces in October.
Su-34 Bombing Mission in Kursk: A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was shown carrying out a likely bombing mission in the Kursk region, targeting Ukrainian infantry and a stronghold.
Destruction of Ukrainian "Kozak" Armored Vehicle: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle in the Vremivka direction.
Air Raid Alert Lifted: The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.
Changes from Older Situations (6 hours to 3 days ago)
Major Escalation: The large-scale drone and missile attack on the Rostov region, with 84 Ukrainian drones intercepted (36 over Rostov), marked a significant escalation in the scale and intensity of attacks.
Air Defense Activation: Widespread activation of air defense systems across multiple locations.
Casualties and Damage: One injury near Rostov, damage to houses in the Kamensk district, and a fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery.
Ukrainian Drone Losses: Ukrainian forces reported shooting down 45 out of 85 drones, with 40 additional drones "locationally lost."
New Drone Activity: New drone activity reported in Sumy and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
Air Raid Alert: Air raid alert issued for Kyiv, lifted in Zaporizhzhia.
Cossack Participation: 43,000 Cossacks reported to have participated in the special military operation.
Naval Activity: No enemy warships in the Black and Azov Seas, six in the Mediterranean.
Territorial Changes: Reported Russian net gain of 15.68 km² in the "KTO Zone" on December 18.
British Aid Package: Announcement of a new 286 million hryvnia military aid package from Britain.
Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: Discussion on strengthening Ukraine's air defense and security guarantees.
Other Developments: Increase in Murmansk train collision death toll, confession of suspect in General Kirillov's assassination attempt.
Ukrainian Reserves Targeted: Ukrainian reserves being transferred to the Kursk region were reportedly destroyed in the Sumy region.
Mobilization in Ukraine: Reports of Ukrainian mobilization efforts targeting individuals with exemptions, claiming that paper documentation is not recognized if the individual's data is not in the "Oberig" system.
Ukrainian Casualties: Reports of a Ukrainian police major being killed by a Russian drone strike in the Chernihiv region.
German Military Aid: Germany is reportedly sending 20 additional Marder IFVs to Ukraine, with delivery expected in the first half of 2025.
North Korean Losses: Reports of significant North Korean troop losses in the Kursk region.
Confirmation of Novoshakhtinsk Refinery Attack: Ukrainian forces confirmed the attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery as a joint SBU and Navy operation.
Continued Russian Advances: Russian forces continue to make advances on the Eastern Front, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, capturing several settlements and expanding their zone of control.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported along the Vremivka axis, in the Toretsk area, and the Kursk region, where Russian forces have renewed their offensive.
Drone Warfare: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides employing extensive drone operations and new tactics.
Missile Attacks: Missile attacks continue to target Ukrainian infrastructure, with significant damage reported in the Lviv and Ternopil regions.
Alleged Assassination of a Russian General: The alleged assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov remains a significant development, with a suspect arrested and confessed.
International Involvement: NATO has taken over coordination of military aid to Ukraine from the US. Discussions about sending European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement.
North Korean Involvement: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict continue.
Negotiations: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war.
Syrian Situation: Israeli airstrikes continue in Syria, with reports of Russian troop withdrawals from the front lines.
Desertion in the Ukrainian Army: The number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting their posts has significantly increased.
New Mobilization Effort in Ukraine: A new mobilization effort is potentially targeting younger age groups.
Russian Military Reports: The Russian MoD reported that all tasks assigned to the Russian Armed Forces for 2024 have been completed. The main training event for 2025 will be the joint strategic exercise "West-2025" with Belarus.
Statements from Officials: President Zelensky stated that Ukraine does not need mediators like Hungary and its Prime Minister Orban and emphasized the need for direct relations with the US. Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that "real negotiations" about peace with Russia will only begin when Russia no longer has the resources to continue the war.
Drone Shootdowns: Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down 51 out of 81 enemy drones launched on the night of December 17th, with 30 drones "locally lost" without reaching their targets.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Mariupol and Pryazovia due to the threat of drones and missiles.
Missile Attack on Rostov Oblast: Three missiles were shot down over Rostov Oblast, with one hitting a farm building. A residential building was set on fire due to falling fragments from a downed rocket. No deaths were reported from the missile attacks.
Arrest of Suspect in Assassination: A 29-year-old citizen of Uzbekistan, suspected of carrying out the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, has been arrested and has confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services. The detonation was triggered remotely from Dnipro, Ukraine.
Casualty Reports: The Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) reportedly lost up to 540 military personnel and one tank in the Kursk region.
Destruction of "Abrams" Tank: A Russian BpLA calculation of Crimean paratroopers reportedly destroyed an American "Abrams" tank near Novoivanovka, Kursk region.
Drone Activity: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest. An attack drone was reported in the south of Sumy region, heading towards Poltava. Attack drones were reported in Sumy region, heading south. New groups of Russian drones enter from the Kursk region, with multiple drones moving towards Kyiv, Poltava and Pryluky. Sumy is under threat of attack from the northwest and northeast. A drone was reported to be moving past Sumy to the southwest. Another drone was reported in the Sumy region, moving towards Poltava Oblast. A drone was reported moving past Sumy to the southwest. An enemy drone was reported on the northeast of Poltava region, moving southwest. New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest. A group of attack drones was reported in Chernihiv region, heading west.
Clearing of Novyi Komar: Russian forces have reportedly cleared Novyi Komar in the Velyka Novosilka area.
Houthi Missile Attack on Tel Aviv: Houthi forces reportedly launched a missile attack on Tel Aviv, with one missile hitting a school.
Allegations of Israeli-Turkish Conflict in Syria: Reports of escalating tensions between Israel and Turkey over Syrian territories.
Cyberattack on Ukraine: A large-scale cyberattack targeted Ukraine's state registry systems, disrupting the operation of the Unified State Registries under the Ministry of Justice's jurisdiction.
Kryvyi Rih Under Attack: A Russian ballistic missile struck a two-story residential building in Kryvyi Rih, resulting in 5 confirmed injuries and significant damage to surrounding structures.
Biden to Visit Rome: The White House announced that US President Biden will visit Rome from January 9-12, meeting with Italian Prime Minister Meloni and Pope Francis.
Drone Activity: Reports of drones moving from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast, near the intersection of Kirovohrad and Cherkasy Oblasts, and in Poltava Oblast towards Kremenchuk. Drones were also reported circling in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.
These updates highlight the dynamic and evolving nature of the conflict, with significant developments in multiple regions and across various domains of warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, shifting frontlines, and a complex interplay of military, political, and international factors.
