Major Military Situation Updates - December 22, 2024, 01:55 UTC

Changes and New Information

• Threat of Air Attacks in Eastern Ukraine: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the eastern direction, posing a threat of air attacks for frontline regions. This suggests a potential escalation of air operations in the east.
• Drone Attack Threat Lifted in Tula Oblast: The threat of a drone attack in the Tula Oblast, Russia, has been lifted, according to the Ministry of Regional Security. This indicates a de-escalation of the immediate threat in this area.
• ISS Orbit Raised: The orbit of the International Space Station (ISS) has been raised by 2.3 km in preparation for the launch of the "Soyuz MS-27" manned spacecraft, according to Roscosmos. This is a routine procedure and does not directly impact the military situation.
• Taganrog Explosions: Residents of Taganrog reported explosions.
• Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert Lifted: The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.
• Kazan Explosions: Continued explosions in Kazan throughout the night, attributed to the destruction of unexploded ordnance, highlight ongoing danger and the aftermath of previous attacks.

Overall Situation

The overall situation remains highly volatile and dynamic. Drone warfare continues to be a significant component, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The new reports of explosions in Taganrog and continued explosions in Kazan indicate ongoing threats and potential escalation in these areas.

Ground operations are ongoing, with Russian forces making advances in several directions, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces are resisting and conducting counterattacks, but the situation remains challenging.

The continued emphasis on drone warfare suggests that both sides are relying heavily on this tactic. The propaganda efforts, as seen in various reports and videos, are also ongoing, aiming to influence public perception and maintain morale.

The lifting of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast might suggest a temporary de-escalation in the immediate threat, but the overall situation remains volatile. The ongoing discussions about negotiations and potential involvement of European troops highlight the complex and evolving nature of the conflict. The new threat of air attacks in eastern Ukraine suggests a potential escalation of air operations in this area.

Detailed Regional Analysis

Drone Warfare: Continued Activity and New Reports

Ukraine

• Drone Incursions and Movements:
  • Several groups of drones are reported across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Poltava Oblasts.
  • Specific movements include drones approaching Kyiv from various directions, new groups entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, and drones moving through Chernihiv towards Kyiv.
  • In Zhytomyr Oblast, multiple drones are reported, with some approaching Shepetivka and Zhytomyr.
  • In Chernihiv Oblast, drones are moving through the southeast and southwest in a westerly direction. A group of attack drones is reported heading west. 1 drone is reported to be moving from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast.
  • In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, one drone is reported in the north heading towards Kamianske, and another is moving from Poltava Oblast to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 3 drones are reported to be in the north of the region, heading towards Poltava.
  • In Kharkiv Oblast, a drone was reported near Kharkiv and another over Lozova.
  • In Mykolaiv Oblast, 2 drones are traveling between the Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts.
  • In Poltava Oblast, 5 drones are in the central part heading northwest, 7 moving through the Okhtyrka region in a southerly direction, and 2 circling in the north. Groups of strike UAVs from Poltava are heading towards the Cherkasy region.
  • A threat of attack UAVs has been announced for Tula Oblast.
• Air Defense and Countermeasures:
  • Ukrainian air defenses have shot down 57 "Shahed" UAVs and drones of other types across multiple regions.
  • Anti-aircraft units are active near Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, and Chernihiv.
  • Approximately ten hostile drones were neutralized near Kyiv.
  • A Mi-8 of the Ukrainian Air Force is reported to have shot down a Shahed drone.
• Air Raid Alerts:
  • Air raid alerts have been issued and subsequently lifted in several regions, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia.
  • New alerts have been issued for Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts due to drone activity.
  • The Air Force reports drone threats for several cities, including Pryluky, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, and Sumy.
  • Three new drones were reported on Zaporizhzhia.
  • The threat of using strike UAVs in all areas has ended.

Russia

• Drone Attacks:
  • Kazan, Tatarstan: Multiple drone attacks reported, with at least eight impacts and fires in multiple districts. A criminal investigation has been launched. Residents of Kazan reported explosions throughout the night, with local authorities stating that sappers destroyed unexploded ordnance from the morning's drone attack.
  • Stalnyy Kon, Orlov Oblast: A drone attack targeted a fuel depot, causing a fire. The attack is ongoing.
  • Sochi, Voronezh Oblast, Rostov, and Orel: Explosions and air defense activity reported.
  • Taganrog: Residents reported explosions.
• Air Defense Interceptions:
  • Russian air defense systems intercepted 19 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions, including Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, and Krasnodar Oblasts.
  • An additional 13 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed over Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov, and Lipetsk regions.
  • Five Ukrainian drones were shot down over Bryansk Oblast.
  • Air defense is active in Tula Oblast. The threat of a drone attack has been lifted.

Ground Warfare

Donetsk Oblast

• Chasov Yar:
  • Russian forces control over half of Chasov Yar.
  • Fighting continues on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound.
• Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk):
  • Russian forces are consolidating control and advancing near Dzerzhinsk.
  • Fighting is reported in the southern part of the Забалка (Kulatsky Khutor) district.
  • Russian forces advanced in the Khomkolonka microdistrict and near the small mine No. 10 spoil heap.
• Pokrovsk Direction:
  • High-intensity battles are reported near several settlements, including Shevchenko, Peschanoye, Novovasilevka, Novooleenovka, Ukrainka, Slavyanka, and Petropavlovka.
  • Russian forces advanced 5km east of the Krasnoye-Starye Terny highway and are expanding control westward towards Andreyevka.
• Kurakhovo Direction:
  • The liberation of Uspenovka has been completed. The city of Kurakhovo itself is almost completely liberated from the enemy, after the capture of high-rise buildings.
  • Russian forces liberated Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe) and Zelenovka.
  • Heavy fighting is reported as Russian forces push Ukrainian forces into the industrial zone and towards the thermal power station (TES).
  • Battles are ongoing for Yantarnoye.
  • Russian reactive artillery reportedly engaged a concentration of Ukrainian manpower in the Seversk area.
• Vremivka Direction:
  • Russian forces raised a flag in Novyi Komar.
  • Assault units continue to expand the zone of control towards Velikaya Novoselka.
• Other Russian Advances:
  • Russian forces are advancing south of Pokrovsk towards Ukrainka and have reportedly entered Pisky.
  • Russian forces are developing an offensive towards Dimitrov.
  • Significant advances are reported near Pushkino, Lysivka, and Veselyi Gai.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that units of the Yug Group of Forces liberated Ostrovskoye.

Kursk Region

• Russian Advances:
  • Russian forces fully liberated Novoivanovka and are advancing in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • Russian forces are developing an offensive in the direction of Malaya Loknya.
  • North of Kruhlenky, Russian forces dislodged Ukrainian forces for 2 km.
  • Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
• Rylsk Attack:
  • The death of a child in Rylsk was not confirmed, five people were killed as a result of the attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Zaporizhzhia Front

• Assault operations are reported near Kamenskoye and north of Nesterianka.
• Clashes were reported near Kostyantynopolske, Sukhi Yaly, Storozheve, Novosilky, Temyrivka, Novopil, and Novodarivka.
• The 422nd Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems Luftwaffe reported significant hits on enemy positions.

Kharkiv Front

• One clash occurred near Vovchansk.
• Russian forces conducted 3 airstrikes with 23 unguided aerial rockets (NARs) and 27 drone strikes, along with 28 shellings of Ukrainian positions.
• Russian losses in the past day include 54 troops, 42 pieces of equipment, and 59 shelters.
• First Fully Robotized Attack: Ukrainian forces conducted a fully robotized attack using only ground and FPV drones in the Lipstsi area.
• Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova.

Other Locations

• Kupyansk Direction: A large mechanized attack by Russian forces was repelled near the Oskil River, with 21 pieces of Russian military equipment destroyed or damaged.
• Belgorod Region: Two civilians were injured in a drone attack.
• Donetsk People's Republic: Casualties reported in Horlivka and Selidovo due to shelling.
• Zaporizhzhia: 4 people were injured in a Russian attack.
• Nikopolshchyna: The area was attacked almost 18 times using drones and heavy artillery.
• Sadove, Kherson Oblast: Launch of a guided aerial bomb reported.
• Volgograd: The Traktorozavodsky district heard sounds resembling drones, followed by two explosions.
• Moscow Region: More than 10 arsons and explosions of pyrotechnic products were committed in a day by order of fraudsters.

Naval Activity

• Black Sea: 3 Russian ships, carrying up to 24 "Kalibr" missiles.
• Azov Sea: No Russian ships present.
• Mediterranean Sea: 6 Russian ships, 3 carrying up to 25 "Kalibr" missiles.
• No enemy warships in Black and Azov Seas. Six enemy warships in the Mediterranean Sea, three armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.

Other Significant Events

• Investigation of Ukrainian pilots accused of terrorism has been completed.
• Corruption investigation in Kursk Oblast regarding the embezzlement of 800 million rubles.
• Fico's Allegations: Slovakian Prime Minister claims Zelensky offered him 500 million euros from Russian assets in exchange for Slovakia's consent to Ukraine's NATO membership.
• Moldova: Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine.
• Negotiations: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war.
• NATO to Coordinate Military Aid to Ukraine: NATO has reportedly taken over the coordination of military aid to Ukraine from the US.
• Discussion on European Troops in Ukraine: Discussions are reportedly taking place in Brussels about sending European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement.
• Putin on "Oreshnik": Putin made several statements regarding the "Oreshnik" weapon system, negotiations with Ukraine, the THAAD system, Russia's nuclear doctrine, payments to soldiers, the restoration of new regions, and his meeting with Assad.
• MoD Briefing: The Russian Ministry of Defense provided a briefing on the activities of the "Center," "West," and "Sever" groups of forces, detailing casualties inflicted on Ukrainian forces and areas of operation.
• Fund for Reconstruction of Aerodrome Network: A fund for the reconstruction of the aerodrome network will be operational in 2025. It is planned to repair 56 airports by 2030.