Major Military Situation Updates - December 21, 2024, 03:55 UTC
Aerial Warfare: Drone and Guided Bomb Attacks
New Guided Bomb Strikes: Russian tactical aviation has launched multiple guided bomb strikes on northern Donetsk Oblast. This signals a continuation of Russian air attacks targeting Ukrainian positions and infrastructure in the region.
Updated Drone Movements:
Poltava Oblast: A drone is moving through the west of the region in a southerly/southwesterly direction. A drone on the border of Cherkasy and Poltava Oblasts is moving south. Another drone on the border of Cherkasy and Poltava Oblasts is moving north.
Vinnytsia Oblast: A drone is moving through the north of the region in a northerly/northeasterly direction.
Zhytomyr Oblast: A drone in the south of the region is moving northeast. A drone is flying from Zhytomyr Oblast towards Fastiv.
Chernihiv Oblast: A drone from Cherkasy Oblast is moving into Chernihiv Oblast.
Kyiv Oblast: A drone in the north of the region is moving northeast. A drone in the west is moving east. A drone is moving towards Kyiv from the southwest.
Voronezh Oblast: Russian air defense systems have successfully intercepted several Ukrainian drones in Voronezh Oblast.
Air Alert in Lipetsk Oblast: An air alert has been declared for the entire Lipetsk Oblast. The air alert was later lifted.
Threat of Air Strikes: Enemy tactical aviation activity is observed in the eastern direction. There is a threat of the use of aviation means of destruction for front-line regions.
Ground Warfare: Continued Russian Advances
Mikhailovka, Donetsk Oblast: A damaged, captured Canadian "Roshel Senator" armored vehicle was reported in Mikhailovka, Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Advances: Russian forces continue to make advances in several directions, including Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Kursk.
Kursk Region: Russian forces made significant progress, fully liberating Novoivanovka and advancing in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Russian forces destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian military equipment with the use of a "Malka" artillery system.
Donetsk Front: Russian forces are advancing south of Pokrovsk towards Ukrainka and have reportedly entered Pisky. They also liberated Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolskoe) and Zelenovka southwest of Kurakhove and secured a foothold in Novyi Komar on the northern Vremivka "pocket."
Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk): Russian forces continue attacks in the southern part of the Забалка (Kulatsky Khutor) district, in the direction of Koksovaya Street (through the passage between the spoil tips), along Svetlaya Street, and in the direction of the Toretskaya mine.
Pokrovsk Direction: High-intensity battles are reported in the areas of northern Shevchenko, Peschanoye, Novovasilevka, Novooleenovka, Ukrainka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, and southern Shevchenko. Russian forces are storming Novooleenovka from the north and east, and have advanced west of Zarya to a depth of 500 meters in the direction of Slavyanka. This is not only a movement towards Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) but also an advance towards the enemy's Yasenevoe-Konstantinopol road, which should finally deprive the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the ability to maneuver northwest of Kurakhovo.
Kurakhovo Direction: The liberation of Uspenovka has been completed, its capture completed the work of the Russian Army to clean up the "pocket" in which several villages were located along the Sukhiye Yaly River. The city of Kurakhovo itself is almost completely liberated from the enemy, after the capture of high-rise buildings, the enemy's resistance lost its meaning.
Vremivka Direction: In the north of the Vremivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces raised a flag in Novyi Komar, the enemy remains to the southwest of the village.
Zaporizhzhia Front: In the area of Kamenskoye and north of Nesterianka, units of the Russian Armed Forces are conducting assault operations.
Other Significant Events
Russian Military Reports: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces revealed and suppressed over 100 Ukrainian Armed Forces targets in a day. Russian anti-aircraft systems shot down Ukrainian reconnaissance drones "Fury", "Valkyrie", "Leleka-100", "Darts", "Skif", and "PD-1".
Kyivskyi District, Kharkiv: A Russian drone attack using a "Geran-2" UAV targeted a tree in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv at 23:40 on December 20th. The attack caused minor damage to the facades of about ten private houses, with some windows broken. Two people sought medical attention for acute stress reactions, including an elderly woman.
Roscosmos Deputy Head's Property Seized: A court has seized real estate belonging to a deputy head of Roscosmos, who is accused of embezzling 435 million rubles. The seized property includes a land plot in the Moscow region and five non-residential premises.
Investigation of Ukrainian Pilots Completed: The investigation of the case of Ukrainian pilots accused of terrorism has been completed. They are charged with seven articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, including terrorism, violation of the rules of international flights, and illegal crossing of the state border. They are being held in a Moscow pre-trial detention center.
Drone Warfare: Drone warfare remains a prominent feature of the conflict. Overnight, Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted 36 Ukrainian drones across various regions. Ukrainian forces also reported shooting down a significant number of Russian drones.
Saur-Mogila Memorial Ceremony: A medal ceremony was held at the Saur-Mogila memorial in the Donetsk People's Republic, awarding medals "For Courage," "For Bravery," and Georgievsky Crosses to Russian military personnel.
Rylsk Attack: The death of a child in Rylsk was not confirmed, as a result of the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, five people were killed.
Belgorod Region: In the area of the village of Repyakhovka, Krasnoyaruzhsky district, two civilians were injured as a result of a drone attack. In Shebekino, an FPV drone was shot down with subsequent detonation on the ground, and a truck was attacked in the parking lot of an agricultural enterprise - the trailer was damaged. There are reports of strikes on the Shebekino-Belgorod road.
Donetsk People's Republic: In Donetsk, a dump truck driver was injured as a result of an enemy MLRS strike. In Horlivka, three civilians were injured by artillery shelling. In Selidovo, a woman born in 1951 was injured: the enemy was using NATO artillery.
Analysis of Captured and Damaged Military Equipment
Canadian "Roshel Senator" Armored Vehicle: Images show a damaged, captured Canadian "Roshel Senator" armored vehicle in Mikhailovka, Donetsk Oblast. The damage suggests it was likely hit by an anti-tank weapon or an IED. Its capture represents a loss for Ukrainian forces and a potential intelligence gain for Russia.
Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Vehicle: Images depict a damaged MEDEVAC vehicle, likely an armored personnel carrier repurposed for medical use. The damage, including a shattered window, suggests it was targeted or caught in crossfire, raising concerns about the safety of medical personnel and the protection of humanitarian laws.
Other Damaged Vehicles: Several other images show heavily damaged or destroyed vehicles, including an APC and a civilian-style vehicle. These images highlight the intensity of the conflict and the significant attrition of military equipment.
Analysis of Armored Vehicle Interior
Armored Personnel Carrier (APC) Interior: Images show the interior of an APC, likely undergoing maintenance or upgrades. The presence of communication cables and the overall condition of the vehicle suggest ongoing efforts to maintain operational readiness. The stenciled mark on the vehicle's interior could provide insights into its unit or area of operations.
Another APC Interior: An image of another APC interior shows a degree of disorder, suggesting recent use or a hasty departure. The presence of first aid supplies and other equipment indicates the vehicle's role in troop transport and logistics.
Analysis of Video of Russian Armored Vehicle
Russian BMP-2 or Similar: A video shows a Russian BMP-2 or similar armored vehicle, marked with a "Z" symbol, actively firing its autocannon while traversing muddy terrain. This indicates ongoing offensive or fire support operations. The vehicle's use of camouflage suggests awareness of potential threats, while the muddy terrain could affect its mobility and increase its vulnerability.
Analysis of Video of Russian Artillery System
Russian "Malka" Artillery System: A video shows a Russian "Malka" artillery system destroying a concentration of Ukrainian military equipment in the Kursk region. The video highlights the system's firepower and its role in targeting enemy assets.
Analysis of Video of Medal Ceremony
Saur-Mogila Memorial: A video shows a medal ceremony at the Saur-Mogila memorial in the Donetsk People's Republic. The video highlights the significance of the location and the awarding of medals to Russian military personnel for their service in the conflict. The video also includes interviews with soldiers, providing insights into their experiences and motivations.
Strategic Implications
Continued Russian Advances: The continued Russian advances on multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, indicate a sustained offensive aimed at achieving significant territorial gains.
Drone Warfare: The persistent use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict and the importance of drone warfare in reconnaissance, targeting, and attack operations.
Humanitarian Concerns: The damage to a MEDEVAC vehicle underscores the dangers faced by medical personnel and the potential violations of international humanitarian law in the conflict zone.
Logistical Challenges: The damaged and destroyed vehicles highlight the logistical challenges faced by both sides, including the need to replace lost equipment and maintain operational readiness.
Propaganda and Information Warfare: The images and videos circulating on social media, often with watermarks indicating their source, are likely being used for propaganda purposes by both sides to influence public opinion and morale.
Changes from Previous Situation (approximately 30 minutes ago):
Air Alert Lifted in Lipetsk Oblast: The air alert declared earlier for Lipetsk Oblast has been lifted.
Clarification on Rylsk Attack: The reported death of a child in Rylsk was not confirmed. Five people were killed in the attack.
New Reports on Ground Engagements: New reports have emerged detailing the ongoing fighting in the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Vremivka directions, as well as on the Zaporizhzhia front. These reports indicate continued Russian advances and high-intensity battles.
Casualties and Damage in Belgorod and Donetsk Regions: New reports detail casualties and damage from drone attacks and shelling in the Belgorod and Donetsk regions.
Changes from Previous Situation (2 hours ago):
New Drone Activity: Updated drone movements in Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Kyiv Oblasts. A drone is flying from Zhytomyr Oblast towards Fastiv. A drone is moving towards Kyiv from the southwest.
Air Alert in Lipetsk Oblast: An air alert has been declared for the entire Lipetsk Oblast. The air alert was later lifted.
Threat of Air Strikes: Increased activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction, with a threat of air strikes on front-line regions.
Investigation of Ukrainian Pilots Completed: The investigation of the case of Ukrainian pilots accused of terrorism has been completed.
Russian "Malka" Artillery System: A video shows a Russian "Malka" artillery system destroying a concentration of Ukrainian military equipment in the Kursk region.
Saur-Mogila Memorial Ceremony: A video shows a medal ceremony at the Saur-Mogila memorial in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Clarification on Rylsk Attack: The reported death of a child in Rylsk was not confirmed. Five people were killed in the attack.
New Reports on Ground Engagements: New reports have emerged detailing the ongoing fighting in the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Vremivka directions, as well as on the Zaporizhzhia front. These reports indicate continued Russian advances and high-intensity battles.
Casualties and Damage in Belgorod and Donetsk Regions: New reports detail casualties and damage from drone attacks and shelling in the Belgorod and Donetsk regions.
Changes from Previous Situation (6 hours to 3 days ago):
Drone and Missile Attacks: Extensive drone and missile attacks continue on both sides, targeting infrastructure and military positions.
Assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov: Ukrainian sources claim responsibility, while US officials deny involvement. A suspect has been arrested and confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services.
Kurakhove and Pokrovsk: Russian forces control approximately 80-90% of Kurakhove, with heavy fighting ongoing. They have made significant advances, capturing several settlements and threatening Pokrovsk.
Toretsk and Chasov Yar: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. Street fighting continues, with the city effectively divided.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka, reaching Storozheve and Neskuchne, forming a new "pocket."
Kursk Region: There were 55 engagements in the Kursk direction, with 25 ongoing. Reports claim North Korean special forces are involved, with reports of them suffering their first losses.
Sumy Oblast: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region. Russian forces are concentrating significant forces, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel.
Kharkiv Oblast: Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian army assaults. Air raid alerts are in effect, indicating continued drone activity.
Negotiations to End the War: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war.
Clarification on Rylsk Attack: The reported death of a child in Rylsk was not confirmed. Five people were killed in the attack.
New Reports on Ground Engagements: New reports have emerged detailing the ongoing fighting in the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Vremivka directions, as well as on the Zaporizhzhia front. These reports indicate continued Russian advances and high-intensity battles.
Casualties and Damage in Belgorod and Donetsk Regions: New reports detail casualties and damage from drone attacks and shelling in the Belgorod and Donetsk regions.
