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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2024-12-21 02:26:14Z
1 year ago
Previous (2024-12-21 01:55:55Z)

Major Military Situation Updates - December 21, 2024, 02:25 UTC

Aerial Warfare: Drone and Guided Bomb Attacks

  • New Guided Bomb Strikes: Russian tactical aviation has launched multiple guided bomb strikes on Donetsk Oblast. This signals a continuation of Russian air attacks targeting Ukrainian positions and infrastructure in the region.
  • Updated Drone Movements:
    • Poltava Oblast: A drone is moving through the west of the region in a southerly/southwesterly direction.
    • Vinnytsia Oblast: A drone is moving through the north of the region in a northerly/northeasterly direction. A hostile drone has been detected approaching Vinnytsia from the southwest.
  • Drone Interceptions in Voronezh Oblast: Russian air defense systems have successfully intercepted several Ukrainian drones in Voronezh Oblast.
  • Drone Threat to Vinnytsia: A hostile drone was detected approaching Vinnytsia from the southwest.

Ground Warfare: Continued Russian Advances

  • Mikhailovka, Donetsk Oblast: A damaged, captured Canadian "Roshel Senator" armored vehicle was reported in Mikhailovka, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian Advances: Russian forces continue to make advances in several directions, including Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Kursk.
    • Kursk Region: Russian forces made significant progress, fully liberating Novoivanovka and advancing in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
    • Donetsk Front: Russian forces are advancing south of Pokrovsk towards Ukrainka and have reportedly entered Pisky. They also liberated Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolskoe) and Zelenovka southwest of Kurakhove and secured a foothold in Novyi Komar on the northern Vremivka "pocket."

Other Significant Events

  • Russian Military Reports: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces revealed and suppressed over 100 Ukrainian Armed Forces targets in a day. Russian anti-aircraft systems shot down Ukrainian reconnaissance drones "Fury", "Valkyrie", "Leleka-100", "Darts", "Skif" and "PD-1".
  • Kyivskyi District, Kharkiv: A Russian drone attack using a "Geran-2" UAV targeted a tree in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv at 23:40 on December 20th. The attack caused minor damage to the facades of about ten private houses, with some windows broken. Two people sought medical attention for acute stress reactions, including an elderly woman.
  • Roscosmos Deputy Head's Property Seized: A court has seized real estate belonging to a deputy head of Roscosmos, who is accused of embezzling 435 million rubles. The seized property includes a land plot in the Moscow region and five non-residential premises.
  • Drone Warfare: Drone warfare remains a prominent feature of the conflict. Overnight, Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted 36 Ukrainian drones across various regions. Ukrainian forces also reported shooting down a significant number of Russian drones.

Analysis of Captured and Damaged Military Equipment

  • Canadian "Roshel Senator" Armored Vehicle: Images show a damaged, captured Canadian "Roshel Senator" armored vehicle in Mikhailovka, Donetsk Oblast. The damage suggests it was likely hit by an anti-tank weapon or an IED. Its capture represents a loss for Ukrainian forces and a potential intelligence gain for Russia.
  • Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Vehicle: Images depict a damaged MEDEVAC vehicle, likely an armored personnel carrier repurposed for medical use. The damage, including a shattered window, suggests it was targeted or caught in crossfire, raising concerns about the safety of medical personnel and the protection of humanitarian laws.
  • Other Damaged Vehicles: Several other images show heavily damaged or destroyed vehicles, including an APC and a civilian-style vehicle. These images highlight the intensity of the conflict and the significant attrition of military equipment.

Analysis of Armored Vehicle Interior

  • Armored Personnel Carrier (APC) Interior: Images show the interior of an APC, likely undergoing maintenance or upgrades. The presence of communication cables and the overall condition of the vehicle suggest ongoing efforts to maintain operational readiness. The stenciled mark on the vehicle's interior could provide insights into its unit or area of operations.
  • Another APC Interior: An image of another APC interior shows a degree of disorder, suggesting recent use or a hasty departure. The presence of first aid supplies and other equipment indicates the vehicle's role in troop transport and logistics.

Analysis of Video of Russian Armored Vehicle

  • Russian BMP-2 or Similar: A video shows a Russian BMP-2 or similar armored vehicle, marked with a "Z" symbol, actively firing its autocannon while traversing muddy terrain. This indicates ongoing offensive or fire support operations. The vehicle's use of camouflage suggests awareness of potential threats, while the muddy terrain could affect its mobility and increase its vulnerability.

Strategic Implications

  • Continued Russian Advances: The continued Russian advances on multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, indicate a sustained offensive aimed at achieving significant territorial gains.
  • Drone Warfare: The persistent use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict and the importance of drone warfare in reconnaissance, targeting, and attack operations.
  • Humanitarian Concerns: The damage to a MEDEVAC vehicle underscores the dangers faced by medical personnel and the potential violations of international humanitarian law in the conflict zone.
  • Logistical Challenges: The damaged and destroyed vehicles highlight the logistical challenges faced by both sides, including the need to replace lost equipment and maintain operational readiness.
  • Propaganda and Information Warfare: The images and videos circulating on social media, often with watermarks indicating their source, are likely being used for propaganda purposes by both sides to influence public opinion and morale.

Changes from Previous Situation (2 hours ago):

  • New Drone Activity: Updated drone movements in Poltava and Vinnytsia Oblasts.
  • Seizure of Roscosmos Official's Property: A Russian court seized the property of a Roscosmos deputy head accused of embezzlement.
  • Report on Damaged Canadian Armored Vehicle: Images and analysis of a damaged, captured Canadian "Roshel Senator" armored vehicle in Mikhailovka, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Analysis of Military Equipment Images: Detailed analysis of several images showing damaged or destroyed military vehicles and the interior of an APC.
  • Analysis of Video of Russian Armored Vehicle: Analysis of a video showing a Russian BMP-2 or similar vehicle actively engaged in combat operations.
  • Russian Military Reports: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces revealed and suppressed over 100 Ukrainian Armed Forces targets in a day.
  • Kyivskyi District, Kharkiv: A Russian drone attack using a "Geran-2" UAV targeted the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, causing minor damage and injuring two people.
Previous (2024-12-21 01:55:55Z)

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