Major Military Situation Updates - December 20, 2024, 06:32 UTC
Escalation in Kyiv: Missile and Drone Attacks
Multiple Explosions and Fires: Kyiv has been subjected to a series of attacks throughout the early hours of December 20th. Reports indicate multiple explosions across several districts, including Holosiivskyi, Dniprovskyi, Solomianskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi.
Targets and Damage:
Debris from intercepted missiles and drones has caused fires and damage in multiple locations.
Holosiivskyi District: Fires in a parking lot, damage to cars, a heating main, and an office building.
Dniprovskyi District: Debris fell on an unfinished building and on the roof of another building.
Solomianskyi District: A fire was reported in a building.
Shevchenkivskyi District: Debris was reported in the area.
Casualties: At least two people are confirmed injured in the Holosiivskyi district, with one hospitalized.
Air Defense Response: Ukrainian air defense systems actively engaged incoming high-speed targets, including ballistic and aeroballistic missiles. Reports indicate that not all missiles were intercepted.
Drone Attacks: Russian forces also launched drone attacks on Kyiv, with Ukrainian air defense systems reportedly destroying all drones targeting the capital.
Impact on Infrastructure: The attacks caused damage to a heating main in the Holosiivskyi district and an office building was reported to be on fire.
Strategic Implications: The attacks demonstrate Russia's continued ability to strike Kyiv with both missiles and drones, targeting civilian infrastructure and causing casualties. The use of ballistic and aeroballistic missiles indicates an escalation in the intensity of the attacks.
Drone Attack on Boryspil: A warehouse in Boryspil, near Kyiv, was set on fire following a Russian missile attack. The fire encompassed a 15,000 m² area and required a large-scale emergency response.
Southern Front: Kherson Under Siege
Intense Shelling: Kherson and its suburbs are under continuous shelling from the Russian-occupied left bank of the Dnipro River, targeting residential areas, critical infrastructure, and social infrastructure.
Increased Casualties: The number of wounded in Kherson has increased to six.
Russian Sabotage and Reconnaissance Groups (DRGs): Enemy DRGs attempted to advance towards Kherson but were reportedly detected and destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
Strategic Implications: The continued shelling of Kherson indicates Russia's intention to maintain pressure on the city and disrupt Ukrainian defenses in the region.
Russian Advances on Multiple Fronts
Kursk Region:
Significant Progress: Russian forces made substantial gains, liberating Novoivanovka and advancing in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Disrupted Ukrainian Rotation: Russian forces reportedly disrupted a Ukrainian troop rotation near the border, destroying armored vehicles and personnel.
Heavy Fighting: Intense combat continues along the entire front line.
Repelled Counterattacks: Ukrainian counterattacks using NATO armored vehicles and HIMARS were repelled.
Airstrikes: Russian airstrikes targeted Ukrainian forces in Gornal and Malaya Loknya.
Destruction of Reserves: Ukrainian reserves being transferred to the Kursk region were reportedly destroyed in the Sumy region.
North Korean Involvement: Reports of North Korean special forces involvement continue, with claims of casualties and mistaken fire incidents, although these reports are likely exaggerated.
Strategic Implications: The Russian advances in the Kursk region represent a significant development, potentially opening a new front in the conflict and stretching Ukrainian defenses.
Donetsk Front:
Kurakhove and Pokrovsk:
Russian Control of Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, with intense fighting continuing.
Encirclement Efforts: Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant.
Liberation of Territories: Russian forces liberated Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolskoe) and Zelenovka southwest of Kurakhove and secured a foothold in Novyi Komar.
Advance Towards Ukrainka: Russian forces advanced towards Ukrainka from Pushkino and Novoolenivka.
Clashes: Clashes reported near Dachne, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Yantarne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novovasylivka, Chumatske, and Novoolenivka.
Strategic Implications: The advances near Kurakhove and Pokrovsk indicate a sustained Russian offensive effort in the Donetsk region, aiming to capture key towns and encircle Ukrainian forces.
Vremivka Direction:
Success in Novyi Komar: Russian forces achieved success in Novyi Komar, with ongoing clearing operations.
Attacks Near Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve: Russian forces are attacking near these settlements, aiming to expand their control in the area.
Capture of Stronghold: Russian forces advanced north of Nesterianka, capturing a Ukrainian stronghold.
Clashes: Clashes reported near Kostyantynopolske, Sukhi Yaly, Storozheve, Novosilky, Temyrivka, Novopil, and Novodarivka.
Strategic Implications: The advances in the Vremivka direction suggest a Russian effort to push towards Velyka Novosilka and further destabilize Ukrainian defenses in the southern Donetsk region.
Other Significant Developments
Drone Warfare: Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted 36 Ukrainian drones overnight.
Testimony of Russian POW: A captured Russian soldier provided testimony detailing manpower shortages, inadequate training, low morale, and broken promises within the Russian military.
Putin's Address: Putin addressed the FSB, SVR, FSO, and Main Directorate of Special Programs, emphasizing the need for offensive actions in Donbas and Novorossiya and highlighting the importance of counterintelligence and combating internal threats.
International Reactions:
Slovakia: Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico announced Slovakia's intention to block possible EU sanctions against Russia in the nuclear energy sector.
Hungary: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will reportedly postpone the decision on extending sanctions against Russia until after Trump's inauguration.
Explosions Near Military Objects in Murmansk: Two explosions occurred near military objects in Murmansk on the evening of December 18. The cause is unknown but could be related to planned blasting operations or sabotage.
Missile Attack on Kryvyi Rih and Nikopolshchyna: Russian forces launched a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih, damaging infrastructure. They also attacked Nikopolshchyna 15 times throughout the day using heavy artillery and kamikaze drones.
Cyberattack on Ukraine: A large-scale cyberattack, attributed to Russian hackers, targeted Ukraine's state registry systems, causing significant disruption. Restoration efforts are expected to take at least two weeks.
Statements from Officials: Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that "real negotiations" about peace with Russia will only begin when Russia no longer has the resources to continue the war. President Zelensky stated that Ukraine does not have the forces to recapture Crimea and Donbas, but Ukraine cannot give up these territories.
Negotiations to End the War: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Kyiv will be in a weakened position in negotiations with Russia if the US stops providing aid.
Putin on Negotiations with Ukraine: Putin stated that Russia is ready to engage in dialogue with Ukraine without preconditions, but based on the Istanbul agreements and the realities on the ground. He emphasized that any agreements must be signed with legitimate authorities in Ukraine.
Putin on "Special Military Operation": Putin stated that the "Special Military Operation" has shown that Russia has become much stronger in the last 2-3 years, contrary to the expectations of the West.
Putin on Peace Talks: Putin stated that peace talks with Ukraine are possible without preconditions, but based on the Istanbul agreements and the realities on the ground. He also stated that any peace agreement must be signed with legitimate authorities in Ukraine.
New statement from the Pentagon: There are about 2,000 US troops in Syria, not 900 as previously stated.
Strategic Implications
Escalation and Multi-Front Pressure: The intensified attacks on Kyiv, combined with Russian advances on multiple fronts, indicate a strategy of escalation and multi-front pressure on Ukraine.
Internal Challenges: The testimony of the Russian POW and reports of manpower shortages highlight potential internal challenges within the Russian military, which could impact their long-term operational capabilities.
International Divisions: The differing positions of Slovakia and Hungary on EU sanctions reveal growing divisions within Europe regarding the approach to the conflict, potentially impacting the unity and effectiveness of the Western response.
Cyber Warfare: The cyberattack on Ukraine demonstrates the increasing importance of cyber warfare as a tool for disruption and destabilization, highlighting the need for robust cybersecurity measures.
Negotiation Challenges: The statements from Ukrainian and Russian officials highlight the significant obstacles to achieving a negotiated settlement, with both sides holding firm to their positions.
Protracted Conflict: The ongoing fighting, internal challenges, and geopolitical divisions suggest the conflict is likely to be protracted, with no clear end in sight.
Immediate Concerns
Civilian Casualties: The continued targeting of civilian areas in Kyiv and Kherson raises serious concerns about civilian casualties and the humanitarian impact of the conflict.
Infrastructure Damage: The damage to infrastructure, including the heating main in Kyiv and the warehouse in Boryspil, will have significant consequences for the civilian population and the Ukrainian economy.
Potential for Further Escalation: The intensity of the attacks and the rhetoric from both sides suggest a high risk of further escalation in the coming days and weeks.
The situation remains highly volatile and fluid, with significant developments occurring rapidly. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for either further escalation or a move towards negotiations.
