Major Military Situation Updates - December 20, 2024, 04:32 UTC

Key Changes and New Information

Intensified Russian Shelling in Kherson: Kherson is under heavy artillery fire, with shelling extending to nearby coastal settlements, including Chornobaivka, Zelenivka, and Inzhenerne. The attacks are indiscriminate, causing fires in residential homes and civilian casualties. This is reported to be linked to Russian attempts to advance near the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Russian Ground Assault near Oleshky: Russian forces attempted to advance towards the Antonivskyi Bridge near Oleshky under the cover of artillery fire, but the assault was unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces engaged in combat, repelling the assault.
Air Defense Activity in Bryansk, Russia: Two Ukrainian drones were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, Russia. No casualties or damage were reported.
Air Defense in Kyiv: All Russian drones targeting Kyiv were shot down. Drone debris fell in the Desnianskyi district, causing minor damage to a non-residential building. No casualties or fires were reported.
Russian Advances in Kursk Oblast: Russian forces have fully liberated Novoivanovka in the Kursk Oblast and made progress in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Two Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled. Russian airstrikes targeted Ukrainian forces in Gornal and Malaya Loknya.
Fighting in Toretsk: Heavy fighting continues in Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), with Russian forces attacking north of the "Central" mine's spoil heaps.
Russian Advances South of Pokrovsk: Russian forces advanced towards Ukrainka from Pushkino and Novoolenivka, conducting a clearing operation between the villages.
Liberation of Settlements Southwest of Kurakhove: Russian forces liberated Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolskoe) and Zelenovka southwest of Kurakhove.
Fighting in Novyi Komar: Russian forces have secured a foothold in Novyi Komar on the northern Vremivka "pocket."
Civilian Casualties in Donetsk: Nine civilians were injured in a Ukrainian artillery strike on a hospital in Horlivka, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).
Drone Shootdown in Belgorod: A Ukrainian drone was shot down over Belgorod, Russia, causing minor damage to vehicles.
Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.
Testimony of a Russian POW: A Russian POW from the 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade, 1st Battalion, Separate Reconnaissance Platoon details manpower shortages, inadequate training, low morale, and broken promises.
Celebration of Security Services Day in Russia: Russia celebrates the professional holiday of the security services, honoring the FSB, SVR, and FSO.
Naval Activity: Ukrainian Naval Forces report 13 Russian ships in the Black Sea with no missile carriers, 0 in the Azov Sea, and 6 in the Mediterranean Sea with 3 missile carriers carrying up to 25 missiles.
Destruction of a US M113 APC: Russian forces reportedly destroyed a US-supplied M113 APC in the Kursk direction.
Slovakia to Block EU Sanctions on Russian Nuclear Energy: Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico announced Slovakia's intention to block possible EU sanctions against Russia in the nuclear energy sector.
Hungary to Postpone Decision on EU Sanctions Against Russia: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will reportedly postpone the decision on extending sanctions against Russia until after Trump's inauguration.

Overall Situation

The conflict in Ukraine remains intense, with a marked escalation in Russian operations in the south, particularly in Kherson. Russian forces attempted a ground assault near the Antonivskyi Bridge under the cover of heavy artillery fire but were unsuccessful. Russian forces continue to advance in the Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Kursk directions, exploiting Ukrainian manpower shortages and desertions. Drone warfare remains a significant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The recent cyberattack on Ukraine and the assassination of a Russian general add further complexity to the situation. Zelensky's public condemnation of Putin and continued Western military aid to Ukraine reflect the broader geopolitical dimensions of the conflict. The reported testimony of a Russian POW highlights issues of morale, inadequate training, and manpower shortages within the Russian military. Russia's celebration of its security services underscores the importance of these agencies in the ongoing conflict. The naval activity report indicates a significant Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea, posing a potential threat. The destruction of a US-supplied M113 APC in the Kursk direction demonstrates the ongoing attrition of military equipment. Slovakia's and Hungary's positions on EU sanctions against Russia reveal growing divisions within the European Union regarding the approach to the conflict.

Detailed Regional Analysis

Eastern Front

Kurakhove and Pokrovsk

Kurakhove Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, with active combat ongoing. Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant. 70% of Ukrainian reinforcements sent to the area are reportedly deserting before reaching their destination.
Significant Russian Advances: Russian forces made significant advances, securing several settlements and advancing north of Uspenivka and south of Kurakhovo. They are also reported to be taking the town with minimal damage to infrastructure due to a lack of Ukrainian manpower.
Encirclement Efforts: Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka and are advancing towards the center of the "triangle" Zelenovka — Ulakly — Konstantinopol.
Pokrovsk Threatened: Russian forces have advanced to within 2 km of Pokrovsk.
Alleged Atrocities: Reports allege Ukrainian forces committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting is reported in Shevchenko and Veselyi Hai.
Desertion: Over 1,000 personnel from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly deserted in the Krasnoarmiisk area, with an additional 70% of reinforcements sent to Kurakhove also deserting.
Ukrainian Command Change: Ukrainian forces replaced the commander of the "Donetsk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG).
Russian Advances South of Pokrovsk: Russian forces advanced towards Ukrainka from Pushkino and Novoolenivka, conducting a clearing operation between the villages.

Toretsk and Chasov Yar

Consolidation and Advances: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk.
Chasov Yar Fighting: Russian forces have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from the fire-resistant compound in Chasov Yar.
Seversk Advance: Russian assault groups reportedly breached Ukrainian defenses and advanced 2 km towards Seversk from Zolotarevka.
Fighting in Toretsk: Heavy fighting continues in Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), with Russian forces attacking north of the "Central" mine's spoil heaps.

Velyka Novosilka

Southwest Advance: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne.
Attacks on Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate: Russian assault units are attacking in the direction of these settlements.
Encirclement Near Makarivka: Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka.
Vremivka Axis: Russian troops are advancing and expanding their control zone in Novyi Komar and attacking between Storozheve and Makarivka.
Fighting in Novyi Komar: Russian forces have secured a foothold in Novyi Komar on the northern Vremivka "pocket."

Northern Front

Kursk Region

Engagements: 55 engagements in the Kursk direction, with 25 ongoing.
North Korean Involvement: Reports claim North Korean special forces are involved, with reports of them suffering their first losses. The Pentagon's statement supports these claims, indicating "several hundred" North Korean casualties.
Ukrainian Casualties: The Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) reportedly lost up to 540 military personnel and one tank.
Reports of Atrocities: A captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians in the Kursk region.
HIMARS Strike: Ukrainian forces used two HIMARS missiles with cluster munitions against groups of North Korean special forces.
Destruction of "Abrams" Tank: A Russian BpLA calculation of Crimean paratroopers destroyed an American "Abrams" tank near Novoivanovka.
Russian Marine Operations: Russian marines are actively clearing the Kursk border area of Ukrainian forces, destroying military equipment and engaging in combat. They are reportedly under orders to eliminate local civilians suspected of aiding Ukrainian forces.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have fully liberated Novoivanovka in the Kursk Oblast and made progress in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Two Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled. Russian airstrikes targeted Ukrainian forces in Gornal and Malaya Loknya.
Destruction of a US M113 APC: Russian forces reportedly destroyed a US-supplied M113 APC in the Kursk direction.

Sumy Oblast

Force Concentration: Russian forces are concentrating significant forces in Sumy Oblast, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel.
Fortifications: Ukrainian forces are actively constructing fortifications in the Sumy Oblast.

Kharkiv Oblast

Heavy Fighting in Volchansk: Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Ballistic Missile Strikes: Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Destruction of "Baba Yaga" Hexacopters: Russian forces report the mass destruction of seven Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters in the Kharkiv direction.

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian army assaults.
Air Raid Alert Lifted: The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.

Kherson Oblast

Intensified Shelling: Kherson is under heavy artillery fire, with shelling extending to nearby coastal settlements, including Chornobaivka, Zelenivka, and Inzhenerne. The attacks are indiscriminate, causing fires in residential homes and civilian casualties.
Russian Ground Assault: Russian forces attempted to advance towards the Antonivskyi Bridge near Oleshky under the cover of artillery fire but were unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces engaged in combat, repelling the assault.

Other Significant Events

Drone Debris in Kyiv: Drone debris fell in the Desnianskyi district of Kyiv, causing minor damage to a non-residential building. No injuries or fires were reported.
Major Cyberattack on Ukraine: A large-scale cyberattack, attributed to Russian hackers, targeted Ukraine's state registry systems, causing significant disruption.
Intensified Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across Ukraine, with multiple drones reported in various regions. Explosions have been reported in multiple regions due to drone attacks. Ukrainian forces report a new tactic of Russian drones attacking other drones in the air. Ukrainian forces have reportedly started using signal splitters to counter Russian electronic warfare measures against their drones.
Assassination of a Russian General: Ukrainian sources claim responsibility for the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. A suspect has been arrested and reportedly confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services.
Rostov Region Targeted in Major Drone Attack: A significant overnight drone attack targeted the Rostov region, with Russian air defenses intercepting numerous drones.
Missile Attacks: Multiple missile attacks continue to target Ukrainian infrastructure.
Statements from Officials: Zelensky publicly condemned Russian President Putin for comments made in a video, accusing him of finding the death of people "interesting."
International Involvement: Denmark has allocated an additional $290 million in aid to Ukraine, prioritizing air defense.
Drone Shootdowns: Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down 51 out of 81 enemy drones launched on the night of December 17th, with 30 drones "locally lost" without reaching their targets. Ukrainian forces report downing 45 out of 85 drones launched by Russian forces, with an additional 40 drones "locationally lost" due to defensive measures.
Air Defense Activity in Bryansk, Russia: Two Ukrainian drones were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, Russia. No casualties or damage were reported.
Air Defense in Kyiv: All Russian drones targeting Kyiv were shot down.
Civilian Casualties in Donetsk: Nine civilians were injured in a Ukrainian artillery strike on a hospital in Horlivka, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).
Drone Shootdown in Belgorod: A Ukrainian drone was shot down over Belgorod, Russia, causing minor damage to vehicles.
Liberation of Settlements Southwest of Kurakhove: Russian forces liberated Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolskoe) and Zelenovka southwest of Kurakhove.
Testimony of a Russian POW: A Russian POW from the 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade, 1st Battalion, Separate Reconnaissance Platoon details manpower shortages, inadequate training, low morale, and broken promises. He mentions being mobilized in January 2024, receiving insufficient training, and being used as infantry instead of reconnaissance. He also highlights issues with unit cohesion, supply shortages, and drug use among soldiers.
Celebration of Security Services Day in Russia: Russia celebrates the professional holiday of the security services, honoring the FSB, SVR, and FSO. The report highlights their role in counterintelligence, counterterrorism, and securing new territories.
Naval Activity: Ukrainian Naval Forces report 13 Russian ships in the Black Sea with no missile carriers, 0 in the Azov Sea, and 6 in the Mediterranean Sea with 3 missile carriers carrying up to 25 missiles. This indicates a significant potential threat from the Mediterranean.
Slovakia to Block EU Sanctions on Russian Nuclear Energy: Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico announced Slovakia's intention to block possible EU sanctions against Russia in the nuclear energy sector. This indicates a potential division within the EU regarding sanctions policy.
Hungary to Postpone Decision on EU Sanctions Against Russia: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will reportedly postpone the decision on extending sanctions against Russia until after Trump's inauguration. This further suggests a growing reluctance within some EU member states to maintain a unified front on sanctions.

Strategic Implications

The intensification of Russian operations in Kherson, particularly the attempted ground assault near the Antonivskyi Bridge, suggests a potential shift in focus to the southern front and a possible attempt to gain a strategic foothold in the area. However, the unsuccessful assault indicates Ukrainian forces' ability to repel such advances. The continued Russian advances in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, coupled with high desertion rates among Ukrainian reinforcements, indicate a sustained offensive aimed at achieving significant territorial gains. The reported manpower shortages and desertions within the Ukrainian ranks indicate a weakening of their defensive capabilities. The extensive use of drones and missiles by both sides underscores the evolving nature of the conflict. The cyberattack on Ukraine and the assassination of a Russian general highlight the broadening scope of the conflict beyond conventional military engagements. Zelensky's public condemnation of Putin escalates the information war and highlights the heightened tensions. Continued Western military aid to Ukraine, exemplified by Denmark's new aid package, reflects the ongoing international dimension of the conflict. The testimony of the Russian POW provides valuable insights into the internal challenges faced by the Russian military, including low morale, inadequate training, and manpower shortages. These issues could potentially impact the effectiveness of Russian forces on the ground. Russia's celebration of its security services underscores their importance in the conflict and suggests a continued focus on internal security and counterintelligence. The naval activity report highlights the significant Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea, which poses a potential threat to regional stability. Ukraine and its allies need to closely monitor this development. The destruction of a US-supplied M113 APC in the Kursk direction demonstrates the ongoing attrition of military equipment and the dangers faced by Ukrainian forces. Slovakia's and Hungary's positions on EU sanctions against Russia reveal a growing division within the European Union regarding the approach to the conflict. This could potentially weaken the effectiveness of sanctions and embolden Russia. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict. The unsuccessful Russian assault in Kherson, the ongoing fighting on other fronts, the internal challenges faced by both sides, and the growing divisions within the EU are key factors to monitor. These developments could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Situation Report