Major Military Situation Updates - December 20, 2024, 03:32 UTC
Key Changes and New Information
Increased Russian Artillery and Drone Strikes in Kherson:Kherson is under a massive artillery attack, with reports of shelling extending to nearby coastal settlements. The shelling is indiscriminate and has resulted in fires in residential homes. This escalation suggests a potential intensification of Russian operations in the southern front.
Drone Debris in Kyiv: Drone debris fell in the Desnianskyi district of Kyiv, causing minor damage to a warehouse facade. No injuries or fires were reported. This follows earlier reports of drone activity in and around the city.
Russian Advances in Kurakhove: Reports indicate that 70% of Ukrainian reinforcements sent to Kurakhove desert before reaching their destination. This further exacerbates the already critical situation for Ukrainian forces in the area, where Russian troops are making significant gains.
Ukrainian President's Public Condemnation of Putin: President Zelensky publicly condemned Russian President Putin for comments made in a video, accusing him of finding the death of people "interesting." This public condemnation, disseminated on social media, represents an escalation in the information warfare between the two leaders and highlights the heightened emotional tension.
Danish Aid Package for Ukraine: Denmark has allocated an additional $290 million in aid to Ukraine, prioritizing air defense. This follows the pattern of continued Western support for Ukraine's military capabilities.
Overall Situation
The conflict in Ukraine remains intense, with a marked escalation in Russian operations in the south, particularly in Kherson. Russian forces continue to advance in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, exploiting Ukrainian manpower shortages and desertions. Drone warfare remains a significant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The recent cyberattack on Ukraine and the assassination of a Russian general add further complexity to the situation. Public condemnation of Putin by Zelensky and continued Western military aid to Ukraine reflect the broader geopolitical dimensions of the conflict.
Detailed Regional Analysis
Eastern Front
Kurakhove and Pokrovsk
Kurakhove Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, with active combat ongoing. Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant. 70% of Ukrainian reinforcements sent to the area are reportedly deserting before reaching their destination.
Significant Russian Advances: Russian forces made significant advances, securing several settlements and advancing north of Uspenivka and south of Kurakhovo. They are also reported to be taking the town with minimal damage to infrastructure due to a lack of Ukrainian manpower.
Encirclement Efforts: Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka and are advancing towards the center of the "triangle" Zelenovka — Ulakly — Konstantinopol.
Pokrovsk Threatened: Russian forces have advanced to within 2 km of Pokrovsk.
Alleged Atrocities: Reports allege Ukrainian forces committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting is reported in Shevchenko and Veselyi Hai.
Desertion: Over 1,000 personnel from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly deserted in the Krasnoarmiisk area, with an additional 70% of reinforcements sent to Kurakhove also deserting.
Ukrainian Command Change: Ukrainian forces replaced the commander of the "Donetsk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG).
Toretsk and Chasov Yar
Consolidation and Advances: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk.
Chasov Yar Fighting: Russian forces have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from the fire-resistant compound in Chasov Yar.
Seversk Advance: Russian assault groups reportedly breached Ukrainian defenses and advanced 2 km towards Seversk from Zolotarevka.
Velyka Novosilka
Southwest Advance: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne.
Attacks on Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate: Russian assault units are attacking in the direction of these settlements.
Encirclement Near Makarivka: Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka.
Vremivka Axis: Russian troops are advancing and expanding their control zone in Novyi Komar and attacking between Storozheve and Makarivka.
Northern Front
Kursk Region
Engagements: 55 engagements in the Kursk direction, with 25 ongoing.
North Korean Involvement: Reports claim North Korean special forces are involved, with reports of them suffering their first losses. The Pentagon's statement supports these claims, indicating "several hundred" North Korean casualties.
Ukrainian Casualties: The Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) reportedly lost up to 540 military personnel and one tank.
Reports of Atrocities: A captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians in the Kursk region.
HIMARS Strike: Ukrainian forces used two HIMARS missiles with cluster munitions against groups of North Korean special forces.
Destruction of "Abrams" Tank: A Russian BpLA calculation of Crimean paratroopers destroyed an American "Abrams" tank near Novoivanovka.
Russian Marine Operations: Russian marines are actively clearing the Kursk border area of Ukrainian forces, destroying military equipment and engaging in combat. They are reportedly under orders to eliminate local civilians suspected of aiding Ukrainian forces.
Sumy Oblast
Force Concentration: Russian forces are concentrating significant forces in Sumy Oblast, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel.
Fortifications: Ukrainian forces are actively constructing fortifications in the Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast
Heavy Fighting in Volchansk: Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Ballistic Missile Strikes: Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Destruction of "Baba Yaga" Hexacopters: Russian forces report the mass destruction of seven Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters in the Kharkiv direction.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian army assaults.
Air Raid Alert: An air raid alert is in effect, indicating a potential imminent threat.
Kherson Oblast
Threat to Kherson:Kherson is under a massive artillery attack, with shelling extending to nearby coastal settlements. The shelling is indiscriminate and has resulted in fires in residential homes.
Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled 2 Russian army assaults.
Other Significant Events
Drone Debris in Kyiv: Drone debris fell in the Desnianskyi district of Kyiv, causing minor damage to a warehouse facade. No injuries or fires were reported.
Major Cyberattack on Ukraine: A large-scale cyberattack, attributed to Russian hackers, targeted Ukraine's state registry systems, causing significant disruption.
Intensified Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across Ukraine, with multiple drones reported in various regions. Explosions have been reported in multiple regions due to drone attacks. Ukrainian forces report a new tactic of Russian drones attacking other drones in the air. Ukrainian forces have reportedly started using signal splitters to counter Russian electronic warfare measures against their drones.
Assassination of a Russian General: Ukrainian sources claim responsibility for the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. A suspect has been arrested and reportedly confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services.
Rostov Region Targeted in Major Drone Attack: A significant overnight drone attack targeted the Rostov region, with Russian air defenses intercepting numerous drones.
Missile Attacks: Multiple missile attacks continue to target Ukrainian infrastructure.
Statements from Officials: Zelensky publicly condemned Russian President Putin for comments made in a video, accusing him of finding the death of people "interesting."
International Involvement: Denmark has allocated an additional $290 million in aid to Ukraine, prioritizing air defense.
Drone Shootdowns: Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down 51 out of 81 enemy drones launched on the night of December 17th, with 30 drones "locally lost" without reaching their targets. Ukrainian forces report downing 45 out of 85 drones launched by Russian forces, with an additional 40 drones "locationally lost" due to defensive measures.
Strategic Implications
The intensification of Russian operations in Kherson suggests a potential shift in focus to the southern front. The continued Russian advances in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, coupled with high desertion rates among Ukrainian reinforcements, indicate a sustained offensive aimed at achieving significant territorial gains. The reported manpower shortages and desertions within the Ukrainian ranks indicate a weakening of their defensive capabilities. The extensive use of drones and missiles by both sides underscores the evolving nature of the conflict. The cyberattack on Ukraine and the assassination of a Russian general highlight the broadening scope of the conflict beyond conventional military engagements. Zelensky's public condemnation of Putin escalates the information war and highlights the heightened tensions. Continued Western military aid to Ukraine, exemplified by Denmark's new aid package, reflects the ongoing international dimension of the conflict. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict.
