Major Military Situation Updates - December 20, 2024, 02:02 UTC

Key Changes and New Information

Drone Activity Update: Reports indicate that the previously reported drones near Kyiv did not reach the city. The last reported drone activity is a single drone circling east of Chernihiv for the past 45 minutes.
Greek Public Opinion: A poll by the sociological company MRB reveals that Russian President Putin is the most popular foreign leader in Greece, with 31.8% positive ratings. Former US President Trump follows with 29.8%. Ukrainian President Zelensky has a 60.4% disapproval rating among Greeks.
F-16 Comparison to Su-24: Vladimir Saldo, in an interview with TASS, stated that the F-16 fighter jet is similar in functionality to the Su-24 but significantly more expensive. He believes the F-16's primary role would be launching long-range missiles like Storm Shadow and Scalp.
Kurakhove Situation: Bild military analyst Julian Röpcke reports that the Russian army is taking control of Kurakhove with minimal damage to infrastructure. He attributes this to a lack of Ukrainian manpower, forcing them to withdraw and resort to bombing potential Russian positions from a distance.

Overall Situation

The conflict in Ukraine remains intense. Russian forces are making significant advances across multiple fronts, particularly towards Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, along the Vremivka axis, near Toretsk, and in the Kursk region. Ukrainian defenses are significantly degraded, with reports of widespread desertion and substantial losses, especially in manpower. Extensive drone and missile attacks continue on both sides, targeting infrastructure and military positions. The recent cyberattack on Ukraine's state registry systems and the assassination of a Russian general add further complexity to the situation.

Detailed Regional Analysis

Eastern Front

Kurakhove and Pokrovsk

Kurakhove Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, with active combat ongoing. Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant.
Significant Russian Advances: Russian forces made significant advances, securing several settlements and advancing north of Uspenivka and south of Kurakhovo. They are also reported to be taking the town with minimal damage to infrastructure due to a lack of Ukrainian manpower.
Encirclement Efforts: Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka and are advancing towards the center of the "triangle" Zelenovka — Ulakly — Konstantinopol.
Pokrovsk Threatened: Russian forces have advanced to within 2 km of Pokrovsk.
Alleged Atrocities: Reports allege Ukrainian forces committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting is reported in Shevchenko and Veselyi Hai.
Desertion: Over 1,000 personnel from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly deserted in the Krasnoarmiisk area.
Ukrainian Command Change: Ukrainian forces replaced the commander of the "Donetsk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG).

Toretsk and Chasov Yar

Consolidation and Advances: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk.
Chasov Yar Fighting: Russian forces have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from the fire-resistant compound in Chasov Yar.
Seversk Advance: Russian assault groups reportedly breached Ukrainian defenses and advanced 2 km towards Seversk from Zolotarevka.

Velyka Novosilka

Southwest Advance: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne.
Attacks on Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate: Russian assault units are attacking in the direction of these settlements.
Encirclement Near Makarivka: Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka.
Vremivka Axis: Russian troops are advancing and expanding their control zone in Novyi Komar and attacking between Storozheve and Makarivka.
Consequences of fighting in Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are inspecting a Ukrainian armored vehicle abandoned in the northern part of Yasna Polyana, confirming control over the northern part of the settlement.

Northern Front

Kursk Region

Engagements: 55 engagements in the Kursk direction, with 25 ongoing.
North Korean Involvement: Reports claim North Korean special forces are involved, with reports of them suffering their first losses.
Ukrainian Casualties: The Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) reportedly lost up to 540 military personnel and one tank.
Reports of Atrocities: A captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians in the Kursk region.
HIMARS Strike: Ukrainian forces used two HIMARS missiles with cluster munitions against groups of North Korean special forces.
Destruction of "Abrams" Tank: A Russian BpLA calculation of Crimean paratroopers destroyed an American "Abrams" tank near Novoivanovka.

Sumy Oblast

Force Concentration: Russian forces are concentrating significant forces in Sumy Oblast, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel.
Fortifications: Ukrainian forces are actively constructing fortifications in the Sumy Oblast.

Kharkiv Oblast

Heavy Fighting in Volchansk: Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Ballistic Missile Strikes: Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Destruction of "Baba Yaga" Hexacopters: Russian forces report the mass destruction of seven Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters in the Kharkiv direction.

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian army assaults.

Kherson Oblast

Threat to Kherson: Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.

Other Significant Events

Kryvyi Rih Ballistic Missile Strike: A Russian ballistic missile struck a residential building in Kryvyi Rih, causing injuries and significant damage.
Major Cyberattack on Ukraine: A large-scale cyberattack, attributed to Russian hackers, targeted Ukraine's state registry systems, causing significant disruption. The Russian hacker group XakNet claimed responsibility for the attack.
Intensified Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across Ukraine, with multiple drones reported in various regions. Explosions have been reported in multiple regions due to drone attacks. Ukrainian forces report a new tactic of Russian drones attacking other drones in the air. Ukrainian forces have reportedly started using signal splitters to counter Russian electronic warfare measures against their drones.
Assassination of a Russian General: Ukrainian sources claim responsibility for the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. A suspect has been arrested and reportedly confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services.
Rostov Region Targeted in Major Drone Attack: A significant overnight drone attack targeted the Rostov region, with Russian air defenses intercepting numerous drones. The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery was attacked and set on fire.
Missile Attacks: Multiple missile attacks continue to target Ukrainian infrastructure, with reports of bomber activity, missile mobilization, and various types of missiles being used. Attacks were made on energy infrastructure in Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. 50% of the Ternopil region is without power. Six energy infrastructure sites have been damaged in the Lviv region.
Statements from Officials: Vladimir Saldo compared the F-16 to the Su-24, suggesting it offers similar functionality at a higher cost. President Zelensky stated that Ukraine does not need mediators like Hungary and its Prime Minister Orban and emphasized the need for direct relations with the US. Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that "real negotiations" about peace with Russia will only begin when Russia no longer has the resources to continue the war.
International Involvement: NATO has taken over coordination of military aid to Ukraine from the US. Discussions about sending European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement. A poll indicates that Russian President Putin is the most popular foreign leader in Greece.
Negotiations: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war.
Russian Military Reports: The Russian MoD reported that all tasks assigned to the Russian Armed Forces for 2024 have been completed. The main training event for 2025 will be the joint strategic exercise "West-2025" with Belarus.
Drone Shootdowns: Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down 51 out of 81 enemy drones launched on the night of December 17th, with 30 drones "locally lost" without reaching their targets. Ukrainian forces report downing 45 out of 85 drones launched by Russian forces, with an additional 40 drones "locationally lost" due to defensive measures.

Strategic Implications

The continued Russian advances, particularly in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, suggest a sustained offensive aimed at achieving significant territorial gains. The reported manpower shortages and desertions within the Ukrainian ranks indicate a weakening of their defensive capabilities. The extensive use of drones and missiles by both sides underscores the evolving nature of the conflict, with a focus on long-range strikes and asymmetric warfare. The cyberattack on Ukraine and the assassination of a Russian general highlight the broadening scope of the conflict beyond conventional military engagements. The international dimension, including NATO's increased involvement and public opinion in countries like Greece, adds further complexity to the strategic landscape. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict.

Situation Report