Major Military Situation Updates - December 19, 2024, 07:32 UTC

Rostov Region Under Major Attack

Massive Overnight Drone Attack: The Rostov region was targeted in a major overnight attack. Russian air defense systems intercepted 84 Ukrainian drones, 36 specifically over Rostov. This represents a significant escalation in the intensity of drone attacks targeting the region.
Air Defense Systems Heavily Engaged: Air defense systems were heavily activated across multiple cities, including Taganrog, Bataysk, Rostov, Shakht, Kamensk, Millerovo, and Novoshakhtinsk, indicating the widespread nature of the attack.
Casualties and Damage: One injury was reported near Rostov. Houses were damaged in the Kamensk district. The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery was targeted and set on fire by a drone attack but the fire has been extinguished. This attack demonstrates the vulnerability of critical infrastructure deep inside Russian territory.
Alleged Retaliation for ATACMS: The Russian MoD claims this large-scale drone attack is in retaliation for Ukraine's previous use of ATACMS missiles near Taganrog. This suggests a potential cycle of escalation between the two sides.
Ukrainian Drone Losses: Ukrainian forces report shooting down 45 out of 85 drones launched by Russian forces. An additional 40 drones were reported as "locationally lost" due to defensive measures.

Intense Fighting on Multiple Fronts

Eastern Front

Kurakhove and Pokrovsk

Territorial Losses: Ukrainian forces have lost control of Trudove and Uspenovka. This further weakens the Ukrainian position in the area.
Advance to Key Road: Russian forces have advanced to within 3 km of the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, capturing Zelenovka. This puts a critical supply route for Ukrainian forces at risk.
Pokrovsk Advance: Russian forces are expanding their control near Pokrovsk, capturing Novyi Trud and advancing north of Pushkino. The situation for Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk is described as increasingly difficult.
Kryvyi Rih and Nikopolshchyna Attacked: Russian forces launched a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih, damaging infrastructure, two nine-story buildings, a hospital, a school, a store, and ten cars. One of the boilers was stopped in Kryvyi Rih. Traffic was restored, and the overhead wires were repaired. They also attacked Nikopolshchyna 15 times throughout the day using heavy artillery and kamikaze drones, damaging five private houses and two outbuildings.

Vremivka Direction

Novyi Komar Advance: Russian forces have achieved success in Novyi Komar, with reports of ongoing clearing operations. They are also attacking near Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve.
Advance North of Nesterianka: Russian forces have advanced north of Nesterianka on the Zaporizhzhia front, capturing a Ukrainian stronghold.

Northern Front

Kursk Region

Intense Fighting: The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
Advances in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: Russian assault groups are advancing in Kruhlenke and have made progress in Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Ukrainian Counterattacks Repelled: Four unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks were launched using NATO armored vehicles and HIMARS MLRS.
Airstrikes and Artillery: Russian Aerospace Forces and Tornado-S MLRS conducted strikes on Ukrainian forces near Sverdlikovo, Martynovka, and Belovody.
Ukrainian Reinforcements: Ukrainian forces are reportedly transferring additional reserves to the Kremenna area due to increased Russian activity.

Kharkiv Region

Shelling in Tsyrkuny: Four people were injured in Tsyrkuny due to enemy shelling.

Other Key Developments

Chasov Yar: Russian paratroopers continue to engage Ukrainian forces in Chasov Yar.
Drone Shootdowns: In addition to the drones shot down over Rostov, 21 were shot down in Bryansk, 14 in Belgorod, 6 in Voronezh, 3 in Kursk, 3 in Tambov, and 1 in Krasnodar Krai.
Kamchatka Aircraft Incident: An An-2 aircraft disappeared from radar in Kamchatka. A rescue operation is underway.
Murmansk Train Collision: The death toll from a train collision in the Murmansk region has risen to two, with 31 injured, including five children. 14 people were hospitalized, 4 of them in serious condition. The train driver and assistant driver have been detained.
Extremist Group Neutralized in Kyrgyzstan: 22 members of the "Hizb ut-Tahrir" extremist group were arrested in Kyrgyzstan.
Israeli Airstrikes on Yemen: The Israeli army confirmed launching airstrikes on Yemen. At least nine people were killed in the airstrikes.
Discussion on Russian Prosecutor General: The Federation Council committees will discuss the candidacy of Igor Krasnov for the position of Prosecutor General on December 19.
Air Raid Alert: An air raid alert has been issued for Kyiv. The alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
Detainment for Treason: A resident of Khakassia has been detained on suspicion of treason for financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Cossack Participation in Special Operation: 43,000 Cossacks have participated in the special military operation, with over 4,500 receiving state awards.
Naval Activity in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas: No enemy warships are present in the Black and Azov Seas. Six enemy warships are in the Mediterranean Sea, three of which are armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.
Passage through the Kerch Strait: One vessel traveled through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, and five vessels towards the Azov Sea. Two of these continued towards the Bosporus Strait.
Russia Reinforces Army and Uses Conscripts in Ukraine: The ISW reports that Russia is intensifying its army recruitment and coercing conscripts into signing contracts to participate in the war in Ukraine.
Territorial Changes on December 18: A Russian source reported a net gain of 15.68 km² in the "KTO Zone" on December 18, with no changes in the "SVO Zone."
Assassination Attempt on General Kirillov: A suspect in the assassination attempt on Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov has reportedly confessed. The suspect, a citizen of Uzbekistan, claims to have been recruited by Ukrainian special services. The detonation was triggered remotely from Dnipro, Ukraine.
Britain Announces Aid Package: Britain announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at 286 million hryvnias.
Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: President Zelensky discussed strengthening Ukraine's air defense and security guarantees with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Zelensky Confirms Visit of Trump Envoy: President Zelensky confirmed the visit of US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg to Ukraine in early January.
Discussion on Peacekeeping Contingent: President Zelensky stated that the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine is being discussed in Brussels, with positive developments.

Analysis and Strategic Implications

The situation remains highly volatile and dynamic. The massive drone attack on the Rostov region marks a significant escalation and could lead to increased military activity and heightened tensions. Russian air defense systems were heavily engaged, highlighting both their effectiveness and the scale of the Ukrainian drone threat. The targeting of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery demonstrates the vulnerability of critical infrastructure deep within Russian territory and could impact Russia's fuel supply and logistics.

Russian forces continue to make gains on the Eastern Front, particularly near Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. The reported loss of Trudove and Uspenovka, along with the advance towards the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, further jeopardizes the Ukrainian position in the area. The expanding zone of control near Pokrovsk indicates a concerted effort to push back Ukrainian defenses and potentially encircle Ukrainian forces. The attacks on Kryvyi Rih and Nikopolshchyna underscore the ongoing threat to civilian infrastructure and population centers.

On the Vremivka direction, the success in Novyi Komar and the advance north of Nesterianka demonstrate continued Russian pressure and a potential shift in the frontline on the Zaporizhzhia front.

In the Kursk region, intense fighting and reported advances in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka highlight efforts to push back Ukrainian forces. Repelled Ukrainian counterattacks and the use of airstrikes and artillery indicate a strong Russian defensive posture. Ukrainian reinforcement of the Kremenna area suggests concern about increasing Russian activity in the north.

The disappearance of the An-2 aircraft in Kamchatka and the train collision in Murmansk, while not directly related to the conflict, highlight logistical and safety challenges in Russia, potentially impacting military operations and resource allocation.

The neutralization of an extremist group in Kyrgyzstan demonstrates ongoing regional security challenges. Israeli airstrikes on Yemen, with reported casualties, represent a further expansion of the Middle East conflict.

The discussion on Igor Krasnov's candidacy for Russian Prosecutor General indicates ongoing political developments within Russia. The air raid alert in Kyiv and the lifting of the alert in Zaporizhzhia suggest continued aerial threats and defensive measures.

The absence of enemy warships in the Black and Azov Seas, with a concentration in the Mediterranean, suggests a potential shift in naval strategy. Reported reinforcement of the Russian army, use of conscripts in Ukraine, and procurement of drones for Ukrainian forces indicate an intensification of military efforts on both sides.

Reported territorial gains by Russian forces suggest a dynamic and evolving battlefield. The confession of the suspect in General Kirillov's assassination attempt, if true, represents a significant escalation, highlighting the potential for covert operations and targeted killings.

The new British aid package for Ukraine and the Zelensky-Rutte meeting demonstrate continued international support for Ukraine. The confirmation of a visit by a US Special Envoy and discussions about a peacekeeping contingent suggest ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the conflict.

The destruction of a significant number of Ukrainian drones and continued fighting on multiple fronts indicate the conflict is far from over, with both sides actively engaged. The successful interception of many drones demonstrates Ukrainian air defense effectiveness, likely influencing strategic decisions regarding drone use and air defense systems in future operations.

Changes from Previous Situation (6 hours ago):

Major Escalation: The large-scale drone and missile attack on the Rostov region, with 84 Ukrainian drones intercepted (36 over Rostov), marks a significant escalation in the scale and intensity of attacks.
Air Defense Activation: Widespread activation of air defense systems across multiple locations.
Casualties and Damage: One injury near Rostov, damage to houses in the Kamensk district, and a fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery.
Ukrainian Drone Losses: Ukrainian forces reported shooting down 45 out of 85 drones, with 40 additional drones "locationally lost."
New Drone Activity: New drone activity reported in Sumy and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
Air Raid Alert: Air raid alert issued for Kyiv, lifted in Zaporizhzhia.
Cossack Participation: 43,000 Cossacks reported to have participated in the special military operation.
Naval Activity: No enemy warships in the Black and Azov Seas, six in the Mediterranean.
Territorial Changes: Reported Russian net gain of 15.68 km² in the "KTO Zone" on December 18.
British Aid Package: Announcement of a new 286 million hryvnia military aid package from Britain.
Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: Discussion on strengthening Ukraine's air defense and security guarantees.
Other Developments: Increase in Murmansk train collision death toll, confession of suspect in General Kirillov's assassination attempt.

Changes from Older Situations (6 hours to 3 days ago):

Continued Russian Advances: Russian forces continue to make advances on the Eastern Front, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, capturing several settlements and expanding their zone of control.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported along the Vremivka axis, in the Toretsk area, and the Kursk region, where Russian forces have renewed their offensive.
Drone Warfare: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides employing extensive drone operations and new tactics.
Missile Attacks: Missile attacks continue to target Ukrainian infrastructure, with significant damage reported in the Lviv and Ternopil regions.
Alleged Assassination of a Russian General: The alleged assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov remains a significant development, with a suspect arrested and confessed.
International Involvement: NATO has taken over coordination of military aid to Ukraine from the US. Discussions about sending European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement.
North Korean Involvement: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict continue.
Negotiations: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war.
Syrian Situation: Israeli airstrikes continue in Syria, with reports of Russian troop withdrawals from the front lines.
Desertion in the Ukrainian Army: The number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting their posts has significantly increased.
New Mobilization Effort in Ukraine: A new mobilization effort is potentially targeting younger age groups.
Russian Military Reports: The Russian MoD reported that all tasks assigned to the Russian Armed Forces for 2024 have been completed. The main training event for 2025 will be the joint strategic exercise "West-2025" with Belarus.
Statements from Officials: President Zelensky stated that Ukraine does not need mediators like Hungary and its Prime Minister Orban and emphasized the need for direct relations with the US. Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that "real negotiations" about peace with Russia will only begin when Russia no longer has the resources to continue the war.
Drone Shootdowns: Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down 51 out of 81 enemy drones launched on the night of December 17th, with 30 drones "locally lost" without reaching their targets.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Mariupol and Pryazovia due to the threat of drones and missiles.
Missile Attack on Rostov Oblast: Three missiles were shot down over Rostov Oblast, with one hitting a farm building. A residential building was set on fire due to falling fragments from a downed rocket. No deaths were reported from the missile attacks.
Arrest of Suspect in Assassination: A 29-year-old citizen of Uzbekistan, suspected of carrying out the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, has been arrested and has confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services. The detonation was triggered remotely from Dnipro, Ukraine.
Casualty Reports: The Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) reportedly lost up to 540 military personnel and one tank in the Kursk region.
Destruction of "Abrams" Tank: A Russian BpLA calculation of Crimean paratroopers reportedly destroyed an American "Abrams" tank near Novoivanovka, Kursk region.
Drone Activity: Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region. FPV-drones of the National Guard of Ukraine "Spartan" are destroying Russians in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Drone Activity: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest. An attack drone was reported in the south of Sumy region, heading towards Poltava. Attack drones were reported in Sumy region, heading south. New groups of Russian drones enter from the Kursk region, with multiple drones moving towards Kyiv, Poltava and Pryluky. Sumy is under threat of attack from the northwest and northeast. A drone was reported to be moving past Sumy to the southwest. Another drone was reported in the Sumy region, moving towards Poltava Oblast. A drone was reported moving past Sumy to the southwest. An enemy drone was reported on the northeast of Poltava region, moving southwest. New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest. A group of attack drones was reported in Chernihiv region, heading west.
Drone Activity: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest.
Drone Activity: New groups of drones are entering the eastern part of the region, moving south/southwest. There is also a report of a drone flying over Shostka heading west and 7 drones north of Myrhorod heading south. Drones are moving through the center of Sumy Oblast in a northeasterly direction. Drones are moving through the southeast of Chernihiv Oblast in a westerly direction. Drones are moving through the southwest of Chernihiv Oblast in a westerly direction.
Drone Activity: Drone activity continues in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Drone Activity: Russian operators of FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
Drone Activity: Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
Drone Activity: High-speed drones are a threat to Ternopil.
Drone Activity: Multiple drones are reported to be active across Ukraine, moving towards or over Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia.
Drone Activity: Multiple drones are reported to be approaching or over Sumy.
Drone Activity: A drone is moving towards Dnipro from the north.
Drone Activity: A large group of drones launched from the Black Sea, moving towards Tatarbunary.
Drone Activity: Drones are approaching Bila Tserkva, Belyayevka, Borispil, and Kryvyi Rih.
Drone Activity: Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target.
Drone Activity: Drones are moving northwest from the border with Mykolaiv Oblast.
Drone Activity: Drones are approaching Kherson from the direction of Zelenovka.
Drone Activity: Russian forces are launching guided air bomb attacks in the Kharkiv Oblast.
Drone Activity: Drones are moving west/southwest from the southern part of the region.
Drone Activity: One drone is approaching Mykolaiv from the direction of Zelenovka.
Drone Activity: Drone activity is reported across Ukraine, including Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions. New groups of drones are entering Sumy from the north and northeast, approaching Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Starokostiantyniv.
Drone Activity: New groups of drones are entering the eastern part of the region, moving south/southwest. There is also a report of a drone flying over Shostka heading west and 7 drones north of Myrhorod heading south. Drones are moving through the center of Sumy Oblast in a northeasterly direction. Drones are moving through the southeast of Chernihiv Oblast in a westerly direction. Drones are moving through the southwest of Chernihiv Oblast in a westerly direction.
Drone Activity: Drone activity continues in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Drone Activity: Russian operators of FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
Drone Activity: Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
Drone Activity: High-speed drones are a threat to Ternopil.
Drone Activity: Multiple drones are reported to be active across Ukraine, moving towards or over Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia.
Drone Activity: Multiple drones are reported to be approaching or over Sumy.
Drone Activity: A drone is moving towards Dnipro from the north.
Drone Activity: A large group of drones launched from the Black Sea, moving towards Tatarbunary.
Drone Activity: Drones are approaching Bila Tserkva, Belyayevka, Borispil, and Kryvyi Rih.
Drone Activity: Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target.
Drone Activity: Drones are moving northwest from the border with Mykolaiv Oblast.
Drone Activity: Drones are approaching Kherson from the direction of Zelenovka.
Drone Activity: Russian forces are launching guided air bomb attacks in the Kharkiv Oblast.
Drone Activity: Drones are moving west/southwest from the southern part of the region.
Drone Activity: One drone is approaching Mykolaiv from the direction of Zelenovka.
Drone Activity: A video shows drone footage of a battle between drones over Chasov Yar.
Drone Activity: Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region.
Drone Activity: FPV-drones of the National Guard of Ukraine "Spartan" are destroying Russians in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Drone Activity: Mi-8 of the Ukrainian Air Force shoots down a Shahed drone.
Drone Activity: A Ukrainian drone was destroyed by a Russian FPV drone.
Drone Activity: A Ukrainian drone struck a vehicle in the Belgorod region, injuring a civilian.
Drone Activity: 45 out of 85 drones were shot down, and 40 were "locationally lost".

These updates highlight the dynamic and evolving nature of the conflict, with significant developments in multiple regions and across various domains of warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, shifting frontlines, and a complex interplay of military, political, and international factors.

Situation Report