Major Military Situation Updates - December 19, 2024, 04:32 UTC

Rostov Region Under Heavy Attack

• Extensive Drone and Missile Strikes: The Rostov region was subjected to a massive attack overnight and throughout the day, with over 30 drones and 13 missiles reported initially. This was later updated to 36 drones. This marks a significant escalation in the scale and intensity of attacks on the region. A total of 84 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight, with 36 over Rostov.
• Air Defense Activation: Air defense systems were actively engaged throughout the day and night, protecting Taganrog, Bataysk, Rostov, Shakht, Kamensk, Millerovo, and Novoshakhtinsk. This widespread activation indicates a coordinated and extensive attack across the region.
• Damage and Casualties: One person was injured due to falling drone debris near Rostov. Houses were damaged in the Kamensk district.
• Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery: A fire broke out at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery. The fire has now been extinguished.
• Ukrainian ATACMS Usage: The Russian MoD reports that this attack is in retaliation for the Ukrainian use of ATACMS missiles near Taganrog.

Eastern Front

Kurakhove and Pokrovsk

• Loss of Territory: Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost control of Trudove and Uspenovka.
• Advance to Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo Road: Russian forces have advanced to within 3 km of the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, capturing Zelenovka.
• Pokrovsk Advance: Russian forces continue to expand their zone of control near Pokrovsk, with a broad offensive underway. They have captured Novyi Trud and are advancing north of Pushkino.

Vremivka Direction

• Success in Novyi Komar: Russian forces have achieved success in Novyi Komar, having previously destroyed a crossing near Novoocheretuvate. However, reports indicate that the clearing of Novyi Komar was still ongoing as of the previous evening.
• Attacks on Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve: Russian forces are conducting attacks near Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve.
• Advance North of Nesterianka: Russian forces have advanced north of Nesterianka on the Zaporizhzhia front and captured a Ukrainian stronghold.

Northern Front

Kursk Region

• Intense Fighting: The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
• Advances in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: Russian assault groups are reportedly advancing in Kruhlenke and have achieved success in Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
• Ukrainian Counterattacks Repelled: Ukrainian forces, having accumulated reserves, launched four counterattacks during the night and day, using NATO armored vehicles and HIMARS MLRS, but were unsuccessful.
• Airstrikes and Artillery: Russian Aerospace Forces and Tornado-S MLRS carried out strikes on Ukrainian forces near Sverdlikovo, Martynovka, and Belovody.
• Ukrainian Soldiers Face Severe Punishment: Four Ukrainian soldiers captured in the Kursk region face up to 24 years in prison for terrorism-related charges.

Other Key Developments

• Chasov Yar: Russian paratroopers continue to engage Ukrainian forces in Chasov Yar.
• Drone Activity: A new drone was reported near Kharkiv, moving towards Pavlohrad. 8 drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Pavlohrad. 1 drone flew past Pokrovsk heading south. 1 drone moved from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Zaporizhzhia Oblast, heading south. 1 drone from Bilhorod entered Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Kharkiv. 4 drones are east of Cherkasy, heading south. 5 drones are in Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava. 1 drone flew near Konotop, heading west. 1 drone is in the east of Kyiv Oblast. Poltava - a UAV from the south in the direction of the city. An attack drone was detected coming from Chernihiv towards Kyiv.
• Air Defense: 84 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight by Russian air defenses across multiple regions.
• Kharkiv Region: A Russian drone unit reportedly disrupted Ukrainian plans in the Kharkiv region.
• Kamchatka Aircraft Incident: An An-2 aircraft carrying three people and commercial cargo disappeared from radar in Kamchatka. An emergency landing signal has been received, and a rescue operation is underway.
• Train Collision in Murmansk: The death toll from a train collision in the Murmansk region has risen to two. 31 people were injured, including five children. The incident involved a passenger train traveling from Murmansk to St. Petersburg and a freight train. The investigation is ongoing, with the train driver and assistant driver detained on suspicion of leaving the cabin.
• Extremist Group Neutralized in Kyrgyzstan: 22 members of the "Hizb ut-Tahrir" extremist group, including its leaders, were arrested in Kyrgyzstan.
• Israeli Airstrikes on Yemen: The Israeli army confirmed launching airstrikes on Yemen, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• Discussion on Russian Prosecutor General: The Federation Council committees will discuss the candidacy of Igor Krasnov for the position of Prosecutor General on December 19, as proposed by the President of the Russian Federation.
• Air Raid Alert in Kyiv: An air raid alert has been issued for Kyiv. The alert has now ended.
• Air Raid Alert Lifted in Zaporizhzhia: The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
• Detainment for Treason: A resident of Khakassia has been detained on suspicion of treason for financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Cossack Participation in Special Operation: 43,000 Cossacks have participated in the special military operation, with over 4,500 receiving state awards.
• Military Counterintelligence Day: December 19th is celebrated as Military Counterintelligence Day in Russia.

Analysis and Strategic Implications

The intense attack on the Rostov region, involving a large number of drones and missiles, signifies a major escalation in the conflict and is likely a response to Ukrainian ATACMS usage. The widespread activation of air defense systems and the reported damage and casualty underscore the severity of the situation. This development could lead to increased military activity and heightened tensions in the region. The successful interception of 84 drones overnight demonstrates the effectiveness of Russian air defenses but also highlights the scale of the Ukrainian drone threat.

Russian forces continue to make gains on the Eastern Front, particularly near Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. The reported loss of Trudove and Uspenovka by Ukrainian forces, coupled with the Russian advance towards the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, further jeopardizes the Ukrainian position in the area. The expanding zone of control near Pokrovsk indicates a concerted effort to push back Ukrainian defenses.

On the Vremivka direction, the success in Novyi Komar and the attacks on Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve demonstrate continued Russian pressure in this sector. The advance north of Nesterianka on the Zaporizhzhia front suggests a potential shift in the frontline.

In the Kursk region, the intense fighting and reported advances in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka highlight the ongoing efforts to push back Ukrainian forces. The repelled Ukrainian counterattacks and the use of airstrikes and artillery indicate a strong Russian defensive posture. The severe charges faced by captured Ukrainian soldiers underscore the seriousness of the situation in the Kursk region.

The disappearance of the An-2 aircraft in Kamchatka and the train collision in Murmansk, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, highlight logistical and safety challenges in Russia. These incidents could potentially impact military operations and resource allocation. The train collision, in particular, with its significant number of casualties, raises concerns about infrastructure and safety protocols.

The neutralization of an extremist group in Kyrgyzstan demonstrates ongoing security challenges in the region and the need for international cooperation to counter such threats.

The Israeli airstrikes on Yemen represent a further expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. This development could have broader implications for regional stability and international relations.

The discussion on the candidacy of Igor Krasnov for the position of Russian Prosecutor General indicates ongoing political developments within Russia. This could potentially impact the legal and political landscape surrounding the conflict.

The air raid alert in Kyiv and the lifting of the alert in Zaporizhzhia suggest continued aerial threats and defensive measures. The detainment of a resident of Khakassia for treason underscores the internal security challenges faced by Russia.

The significant participation of Cossacks in the special military operation highlights the mobilization of various groups in support of Russian objectives. The celebration of Military Counterintelligence Day underscores the importance of this branch in the ongoing conflict.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the attack on the Rostov region, the ongoing fighting on the Eastern and Northern fronts, and the broader geopolitical developments being key factors to monitor. These developments could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape. The destruction of a significant number of Ukrainian drones and the continued fighting on multiple fronts indicate that the conflict is far from over and that both sides are actively engaged in military operations.