Major Military Situation Updates - December 18, 2024, 07:32 UTC

Overall Situation

The conflict in Ukraine remains intense, with Russian forces making significant advances across multiple fronts, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions. Intense fighting is reported along the Vremivka axis, in the Toretsk area, and the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down 51 enemy drones out of 81 launched on the night of December 17th. Russia conducted a massive missile and drone attack targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. Explosions were reported in multiple regions due to drone and missile attacks, including Odesa, Dnipro, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Khmelnytskyi Oblast. There are new reports of enemy drone activity in Dnipro and Sumy Oblast. The length of the active combat line is over 1170 kilometers. Russian forces improved their tactical position near Lozovaya, Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces have occupied Sontsivka. Russian forces have also advanced near Novotroitskoye, Berestki, Zelenivka, Novyi Komar, Storozheve, Pushkino, Dachenske, and Vidrodzhennya.

Assassination of a Russian General and Response

Ukrainian sources claim responsibility for the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Protection troops in Moscow.
US officials stated they were not aware and were not involved in the plan to assassinate Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov.
Russian officials confirmed his death, along with his assistant, Major Polikarpov. A homemade bomb with shrapnel was reportedly used.
Arrest of Suspect: A 29-year-old citizen of Uzbekistan, suspected of carrying out the attack, has been arrested. He has confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services. He was promised $100,000 and relocation to the EU for carrying out the attack. The suspect placed the bomb on an electric scooter near General Kirillov's residence and used a car-sharing vehicle with a camera to monitor the location. The detonation was triggered remotely from Dnipro, Ukraine.
Medvedev stated that the military-political leadership of the Kyiv regime will face inevitable retribution for the murder of Kirillov.
The Governor of Kostroma Oblast suggested that Kirillov's work exposing secret bio-labs may have been the reason for his assassination.
Russian officials will raise the issue of the attack at the UN Security Council on December 20th.
Maria Zakharova stated that the attack against Kirillov was a result of the West's approval of Kyiv's crimes.

Key Developments by Region

Eastern Front

Kurakhove and Pokrovsk

Kurakhove Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, including the city council building and all residential areas. Active combat is ongoing, with Russian forces attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant and within the city. Approximately 700 Ukrainian troops, including special forces, are surrounded south of Kurakhove.
Significant Russian Advances: Russian forces made significant advances, securing the southeastern part of Uspenovka, capturing Annivka, Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Zholte, and Zarya. They advanced north of Uspenivka along the Kurakhove-Velyka Novosilka highway and south of Kurakhovo near Dalne.
Encirclement Efforts: Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka. Russian forces have established themselves in the area of Sukhi Yaly and Zelenivka and will then try to cut the main highway to Kurakhove in the area of the village of Ulakly.
Pokrovsk Threatened: Russian forces have advanced to within 2 km of Pokrovsk, capturing Novotroitskoye, Zarya, and Shevchenko. The situation for Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk is described as increasingly difficult. Kyiv has reportedly redeployed forces from the Kharkiv direction to the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) area in response to Russian advances.
Bridge Destruction: Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge leading to Pokrovsk to slow the Russian advance.
Alleged Atrocities in Selidovo: Reports allege Ukrainian forces committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
Alleged Liquidation of Colombian Mercenaries: Reports of Russian forces liquidating a unit of Colombian mercenaries near the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR).
Intense Fighting Near Krasnoarmeisk: An advance exceeding 2 km was achieved on the southern flank of Krasnoarmiysk.
Desertion: Over 1,000 personnel from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly deserted in the Krasnoarmiisk area.
Drone Strikes: 425 ОШБ "Скала" conducted a drone strike operation in the village of Shevchenko.
Ukrainian Command Change: Ukrainian forces replaced the commander of the "Donetsk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG).
Intense Fighting Continues in Veselyi Hai: Reports indicate significant Ukrainian casualties and the destruction of the last Ukrainian defense line in Veselyi Hai.
OSCE: The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine reported increased shelling in the Donetsk region.
New Advances: Russian assault groups managed to expand the zone of control towards Peschanoe, attacking from Shevchenko, advancing west of Novotroitskoye along the banks of the Solenaya River, and capturing the northeastern outskirts of Novovasilyevka. On the Kurakhove axis, offensive actions continued in the area of the Sukhoy Yar River. North of Dalne, Russian forces are bypassing the line of defense on the right bank of the river in the direction of Yantarnoye along a ridge of heights and forest plantations. Heavy fighting is reported in Shevchenko, where Ukrainian forces are deploying reserves. Russian forces advanced towards Novovasilyevka from Novotroitskoye. Ukrainian forces have taken a wait-and-see position along the Lysovka-Dachenske line. Russian troops are advancing towards Dachne.

Toretsk and Chasov Yar

Consolidation and Advances: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. Street fighting has continued for two months. Toretsk is effectively divided in half between the opposing forces.
Chasov Yar Fighting: Russian forces have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from the fire-resistant compound in Chasov Yar.
Seversk Advance: Russian assault groups reportedly breached Ukrainian defenses and advanced 2 km towards Seversk from Zolotarevka.

Velyka Novosilka

Southwest Advance: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne, forming a new "pocket."
Attacks on Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate: Russian assault units are attacking in the direction of these settlements.
Encirclement Near Makarivka: Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka. Russian forces have taken Makarivka.
Vremivka Axis: Russian troops are successfully advancing and expanding their control zone in Novyi Komar.
Surrender of Ukrainian Troops: At least 80 Ukrainian troops have surrendered in the area from Ugledar to Velikaya Novoselka over the past three months.

Northern Front

Kursk Region

Engagements: There were 55 engagements in the Kursk direction, with 25 ongoing. The hottest point was Kursk, with 57 clashes.
North Korean Involvement: Reports claim North Korean special forces are involved in operations in the Kursk region, with reports of them suffering their first losses and mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces. Reports that North Korean soldiers are being treated in the Kursk city hospital. So far, there is no evidence of North Korean troops' involvement.
Mercenary Sentencing: A New Zealand mercenary was sentenced to 14 years in prison for invading Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Casualties and Tank Loss: The Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) reportedly lost up to 540 military personnel and one tank in the Kursk region.
Reports of Atrocities: A captured Ukrainian soldier, Artur Plombirus, confessed to killing civilians in the Kursk region under orders from his commanders.
Alleged Atrocities by Mercenaries: A Brazilian mercenary, Lucas Ribeiro de Jesus, admitted to killing two Russian soldiers, a father and son, during combat in the Kursk region.
HIMARS Strike: Ukrainian forces used two HIMARS missiles with cluster munitions against groups of North Korean special forces attempting to storm Ukrainian positions near Mala Loknia and Kruhlenke.
Intensified Offensive: Russian forces have been conducting an intense offensive in Kursk Oblast for three days.
Destruction of "Abrams" Tank: A Russian BpLA calculation of Crimean paratroopers destroyed an American "Abrams" tank near Novoivanovka, Kursk region.

Sumy Oblast

Drone Activity: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest.
Threat to Sumy: Sumy is under threat of attack from the northwest and northeast.
Force Concentration: Russian forces are concentrating significant forces in Sumy Oblast, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel.
Fortifications: Ukrainian forces are actively constructing fortifications in the Sumy Oblast.

Kharkiv Oblast

Heavy Fighting in Volchansk: Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Other Areas of Fighting: Fighting continues near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya and Vovchansk.
Ballistic Missile Strikes: Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled 8 Russian army assaults in the region.
Air and Drone Strikes: Russian forces carried out 10 air strikes and 45 strikes using kamikaze drones in the region.
Bombardments: Russian forces carried out 304 bombardments of Ukrainian defensive positions.
Russian Losses: Russian forces report they have lost 109 personnel, 49 items of military equipment, and 70 defensive shelters in the Kharkiv area.
Ukrainian Claims: Ukrainian forces claim to have killed 33 Russian soldiers, wounded 75, and captured 1 in the Kharkiv region.
Destruction of "Baba Yaga" Hexacopters: Russian forces report the mass destruction of seven Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters in the Kharkiv direction.

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian army assaults, mostly on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are in effect over Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continued drone activity.

Kherson Oblast

Threat to Kherson: Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.
Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled 5 Russian army assaults.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone activity is reported across Ukraine, including Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Explosions: Explosions have been reported in multiple regions due to drone attacks, including Dnipropetrovsk, Chuhuiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
Russian Drone Tactics: Ukrainian forces report a new tactic of Russian drones attacking other drones in the air.
Drone Shootdowns: 14 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight in Bryansk Oblast.
Drone Usage Reports: Russian sources report that drone usage is helping to stop Ukrainian counterattacks.
Ukrainian Drone Strike: Ukrainian forces carried out a drone strike on North Korean troops in the Kursk region.
New Tactics: Ukrainian forces have reportedly started using signal splitters to counter Russian electronic warfare measures against their drones.
New Drone Activity: Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed an enemy drone with an aerial ram.

Missile Attacks

Bomber Activity: Multiple Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, with repeated launch maneuvers in the Caspian Sea.
Missile Mobilization: Mobile launch platforms for Kalibr missiles are mobilizing in Novorossiysk.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ballistic missile threat originates from Crimea.
Kharkiv Strikes: Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Black Sea Launch: "Kalibr" missiles have been launched from the Black Sea, triggering air raid alerts across Ukraine.
Multiple Launches: Multiple Russian missile launches are expected, with some targeted at Pryluky, and multiple Kalibr missiles are heading towards the Kirovograd Oblast, with some later changing course to Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
Kh-101 Missiles: Multiple Kh-101 missiles entered Ukrainian airspace through the Sumy Oblast and are traveling through the Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv regions.
Missile Movement: Missiles have reached Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv oblasts, with a missile targeted at Pryluky.
Kinzhal Missiles: Kinzhal Missiles are being launched towards western Ukraine.
Cruise Missile Launches: Multiple Cruise missiles are being launched from the Kherson region in the direction of Mykolaiv, and from Kharkiv region towards Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Ballistic Missile Launches: Multiple ballistic missiles have been launched towards Odesa from Crimea.
Missile Movement: Multiple missiles are passing through the Lviv region in the direction of Stryi, and are also present in the Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Khmelnytskyi regions.
New Missile: A new type of air-to-surface missile is being used in the Kherson region.
Missile Re-routing: Missiles from Kyiv have changed course and moved to the Vinnitsia region, and from there they moved west near the Khmelnitsky region.
Missile Reports: A missile has been reported traveling to Cherkasy from Kyiv region.
Cherkasy Region: There is a report that a rocket has been spotted in the Cherkasy region, moving northwest.
Missile Movement: Missiles are reported to be passing by the city of Kozyatyn, in the Vinnytsia region.
Massive Attack: Ukraine reports a massive Russian attack that involved 93 missiles and 200 drones. 81 missiles were shot down, including 11 cruise missiles shot down by F-16. Russia states that this strike was in response to the Ukrainian use of ATACMS missiles near Taganrog.
North Korean Missile: A North Korean missile was used in the attacks.
Targeted Infrastructure: Russia is targeting key Ukrainian infrastructure including transportation and energy networks.
KAB Bombs: Three Ukrainian DSNs (State Emergency Service) workers were injured by a Russian attack using KABs (guided bombs) in Stepnohirsk in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Intense Attack: The Prykarpattya region is facing its most intense attack since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Energy Infrastructure: Attacks were made on energy infrastructure in Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. 50% of the Ternopil region is without power.
Power Outages: Russian forces have launched missile attacks on the energy facilities in Lviv and the Ternopil regions, severely damaging their infrastructure and leading to power outages.
Russian Rationale: Russian forces stated their attacks were in retaliation for Ukrainian ATACMS attacks on Taganrog.
Strike on Fuel/Energy Infrastructure: Russian missile strikes were focused on critical infrastructure targets in the fuel and energy sectors that support the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
Response to ATACMS attack: In response to the use of ATACMS missiles near Taganrog, Russian forces launched a massive strike on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Russian Missile Attack: A map shows the trajectories of Russian missiles and drones targeting various Ukrainian cities and regions on December 13th.

Other Developments

Negotiations to End the War: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US officials and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Kyiv will be in a weakened position in negotiations with Russia if the US stops providing aid.
Moldova State of Emergency: Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine, starting December 16.
George Bush Presidential Center Recommendations: The center recommended doubling support for Ukraine.
Syrian Army Collapse: The reasons for the collapse of the Syrian army are being attributed to economic factors.
Alleged Atrocities in Syrian Military Prisons: Reports of atrocities in Syrian military prisons add to regional instability.
Russian Troop Withdrawal from Syria: Reuters reports that Russia is withdrawing troops from the front lines in Syria but will maintain their two main bases.
Food Rationing in Russia: The Russian State Duma is considering reintroducing food ration cards, similar to those used in the USSR.
Training of Ukrainian Instructors: Ukrainian military instructors will be trained in Lithuania in 2025 as part of NATO's DEEP program.
Belarusian Military Tests: Belarus conducted successful tests of the "Sapphire" grenade launcher complex.
Air Superiority: Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
Explosions in Ukraine: Explosions have been reported in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kremenchuk, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Kherson, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv.
Black Sea and Azov Sea Activity: No hostile warships are detected in the Black Sea or the Azov Sea.
Mediterranean Sea Activity: 7 hostile warships present, 4 missile carriers with "Kalibr" missiles, and 41 total missile volleys in the Mediterranean Sea.
Kerch Strait Passage: No passages were registered for the Black Sea, 4 Russian vessels passed through the Kerch Strait into the Azov Sea, and 2 of these vessels continued their transit towards the Bosporus Strait.
Negotiations in Doha: Turkish Foreign Minister reported that Bashar al-Assad stepped down as President of Syria following negotiations in Doha.
Israeli Airstrikes in Syria: Israeli Air Force continues to destroy military facilities in Syria.
Georgian Presidential Elections: Protests are taking place in Georgia as opposition parties do not recognize the legitimacy of the elections. Donald Trump has officially won the US presidential election.
Protests in Tbilisi: The lighting of the New Year's tree in Tbilisi was postponed due to protests.
Russian Military Values: President Putin stated the main task of the National Center "Russia" is to promote traditional spiritual and moral values.
Chernobyl Liquidators Honored: A ceremony was held in Zaporizhzhia to honor the liquidators of the Chernobyl disaster.
French Diplomats to visit Syria: A group of French diplomats will travel to Syria on Tuesday to show France's readiness to support the Syrian people.
Job-Hopping in Russia: There is a new trend of job-hopping among Russians, with many changing jobs every 2-3 years.
Ukrainian Army+ Application: The Army+ application now allows for transfers within the National Guard of Ukraine. There are plans to expand this to include transfers between the National Guard and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the Border Guard Service.
Heat Loss in Cheboksary: 26,000 people were left without heat in Cheboksary due to a utility accident.
South Korean Military: South Korea has arrested the current and former heads of military intelligence on suspicion that the current head knew in advance of President Yoon Suk-yeol's plan to declare martial law. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol failed to appear for police questioning regarding the rebellion case.
Journalist Memorial Day in Russia: December 15 is the Day of Remembrance for Journalists Killed in the Line of Duty in Russia.
Russian Monitoring of Kerch Strait: The Russian Federal Fisheries Agency is monitoring the situation in the Kerch Strait following the sinking of two tankers.
Cyber Attacks: In 2024, cybercriminals have actively been spreading the Mamont mobile banking trojan, targeting Russian users of Android smartphones.
Russia-China Relations: The relationship between Russia and China is becoming increasingly mature, stable, and resilient, according to the Chinese Foreign Minister.
Syria:
- On the south of Syria, the Israeli Defense Forces continue to push into Syrian territory. In the past 24 hours, the Israelis have reached the province of Damascus, captured the Beit Jinn farm, and entered the city of Khan Arnabeh.
- Israeli aircraft conducted another raid in Syrian territory, attacking several positions of the former Syrian army.
- On the north, American troops, as part of the de-escalation of tensions between the Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces" and Turkey, entered the settlement of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab).
- American military personnel have also been deployed near the Karakozak Bridge to monitor the demarcation line between the pro-Turkish formations of the "Syrian National Army" and the SDF.
- The new Syrian authorities, namely the leadership of "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham", have given an ultimatum to several pro-Turkish formations, such as "Ahrar al-Sharqiya", "Jaysh al-Sharqiya", "Sultan Murad", and "Suleiman Shah", 48 hours to lay down their arms and integrate into HTS.
- Meanwhile, ISIS continues to increase its activity. South of Palmyra, militants of the terrorist organization organized an attack on civilians, killing six people.
- The Israeli Air Force carried out a massive strike on an ammunition depot of the former Syrian Arab Army in Tartus.
Turkish Statement on Syria: Turkish media close to Erdogan's administration stated that Turkey would shoot down Israeli warplanes if they support the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Economic Measures in Ukraine: A meeting in Zaporizhzhia focused on the "Dialogue of Government and Business," addressing interactions with law enforcement and regulatory bodies.
Negotiations in Doha: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reported that Bashar al-Assad stepped down as President of Syria following negotiations between Turkey, Russia, and Iran in Doha.
Georgian Presidential Elections: Opposition parties and the current president, Salome Zurabishvili, do not recognize the legitimacy of the elections. The EU is pushing for a secular government in Syria.
Alleged Israeli Involvement: Reports suggest that Israeli forces are expanding their occupied zone in the Golan Heights and preparing for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Armenia: A USAID program proposal for Armenia, focusing on education and culture, was released.
New Zealand: A New Zealand mercenary was sentenced to 14 years in prison for invading Kursk Oblast.
Austria: Austria's termination of the contract for Russian gas will not go unanswered, according to the Russian ambassador in Vienna.
Syrian Conflict: Reports suggest
Hungary: There is speculation that Orban is acting as a mediator between Trump and Putin.
South Korea: The current and former heads of Korean intelligence have been arrested for their involvement in an attempted coup.
Georgia: The new president of Georgia has stated that it makes no sense for Georgia to join the EU if it means giving up Georgian values.
Bashkiria: There was an incident where local nationalists in Bashkiria forced young men who had taken a photo with the flag of the Russian Empire to apologize.
Desertion in the Ukrainian Army: The number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting their posts has significantly increased, with 18,984 new criminal cases initiated in November 2024.
Snow Cover in Russia: Nearly 99% of Russia's territory is covered in snow, according to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, Roman Vilfand.
Zelensky on Orban: President Zelensky stated that Ukraine does not need mediators like Hungary and its Prime Minister Orban.
Capture of Ukrainian Soldier in Kursk: A Ukrainian soldier was captured in the Kursk region and admitted to receiving orders to shoot civilians if necessary.
Moldova: Moldova introduced a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine.
Russian Missile Attack: A map shows the trajectories of Russian missiles and drones targeting various Ukrainian cities and regions on December 13th.

New Information and Changes

Arrest of Suspect in General's Assassination

A 29-year-old citizen of Uzbekistan has been arrested as the suspected perpetrator of the terrorist attack that killed Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and his aide.
The suspect was reportedly recruited by Ukrainian special services and was promised $100,000 and relocation to the EU for carrying out the attack.

Updated Analysis of the Situation

The Ukrainian conflict continues with no signs of abating. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly around Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, where they are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces. The capture of several key settlements by Russian forces in these areas indicates a strong offensive push. The situation for Ukrainian forces in these regions is increasingly precarious, with reports of heavy fighting, encirclements, and significant casualties.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing extensive drone operations. The high number of drones shot down by Ukrainian air defenses (51 out of 81) on the night of December 17th highlights the intensity of these operations. Russia continues to target Ukrainian infrastructure with missile and drone attacks, causing widespread damage and power outages. The use of North Korean missiles in these attacks, if confirmed, marks a significant development and potential escalation.

The assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and the subsequent arrest of a suspect allegedly recruited by Ukrainian special services adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. This incident underscores the ongoing intelligence and covert operations being carried out by both sides. The involvement of foreign nationals in such operations further complicates the situation.

On the diplomatic front, discussions between US and Ukrainian officials regarding a potential end to the war are ongoing. However, the US position, as stated by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, suggests that Ukraine's negotiating position will be weakened if US aid is discontinued. This highlights the critical role of international support in the conflict.

The situation in Syria remains volatile, with reports of Israeli airstrikes and the continued presence of Russian troops. The potential withdrawal of Russian forces from some front lines in Syria could have implications for the regional balance of power.

The reports of atrocities in Selidovo and the Kursk region, if confirmed, represent a serious escalation in the brutality of the conflict. These incidents could further inflame tensions and complicate any future peace negotiations.

The concentration of Russian forces in the Sumy Oblast and the ongoing construction of fortifications by Ukrainian forces in the region suggest a potential new front in the conflict. The situation in the Kharkiv region also remains tense, with continued fighting in Volchansk and reports of chemical weapons deployment by Ukrainian forces.

The ongoing energy crisis in Ukraine, exacerbated by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, poses a significant challenge to the Ukrainian population and war effort. The introduction of a state of emergency in Moldova due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine further highlights the regional impact of the conflict.

The reported increase in desertion within the Ukrainian army is a concerning development, potentially indicating morale issues and manpower shortages. The Ukrainian government's efforts to address these issues, including the introduction of the Army+ application for transfers within the National Guard, will be crucial in maintaining the effectiveness of the armed forces.

The economic and social situation in Russia also appears to be deteriorating, with reports of job-hopping and the potential reintroduction of food ration cards. These developments could have long-term implications for Russia's ability to sustain its war effort.

Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. The conflict is characterized by intense fighting, significant advances by Russian forces, extensive use of drones and missiles, and ongoing covert operations. The humanitarian situation is increasingly dire, with widespread displacement, infrastructure damage, and reports of atrocities. The international community continues to play a crucial role, with ongoing discussions regarding aid, sanctions, and potential negotiations. The outcome of the conflict remains uncertain, with significant implications for the future of Ukraine, Russia, and the broader international order.

Situation Report