Military Situation Update - December 13, 2024, 16:50 UTC
Major Updates
Krasnoarmiisk Direction:
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks near Shevchenko and Novovasylivka, employing armored vehicles and infantry.
Ukrainian forces successfully occupied positions on the northern outskirts of Shevchenko and near Novovasylivka.
Russian forces are responding with artillery and drone strikes.
Intense fighting continues along the entire line south to Krasne (Sontsivka).
To stop Russian advances, Ukrainian forces have introduced fresh reserves near Shevchenko.
Uspenovka Pocket:
Ukrainian forces trapped in the Uspenovka pocket have been completely defeated, with no further organized resistance.
Russian forces have raised their flag in the center of Uspenovka, solidifying their control over the town.
The "Uspenivka pocket" has reportedly been eliminated.
United States:
The US completed successful testing of a ground-based hypersonic missile, the "Dark Eagle," with a reported range of 2800 km and a speed of Mach 17 (glider component reaching Mach 5).
Drone Warfare:
Widespread Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across Ukraine, with multiple drones moving towards Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Air Raid Alert: An air raid alert has been issued for Kyiv and several other regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.
Russian Drone Movements: A Russian drone was reported moving from Poltava towards Kyiv (Yahotyn). New groups of Russian drones entered Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest. Drones are also targeting areas in Cherkasy, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
Ukrainian Drone Success: Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station with an FPV drone and damaging a Russian command post with another drone. They are also using drones to strike Russian tanks in the Novotroitskoye area and a "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk. Ukrainian forces utilized a "Baba Yaga" drone to eliminate Russian troops.
Increased FPV Drone Threat: Ukrainian forces are facing an increased threat from Russian FPV drones and request more countermeasures.
Drone Attacks in Germany: Several unidentified drones were spotted over military objects in Germany, including Rheinmetall plants, a BASF chemical plant, and the US Ramstein Air Base.
FPV Drone Usage: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using FPV drones extensively, and require more countermeasures against Russian drones. Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone.
River Crossing Destruction: The Russian army has reportedly destroyed a crossing over the Mokrye Yaly river using an airstrike, preventing troop reinforcements.
Reconnaissance and Guided Strikes: Russian forces are using reconnaissance drones, and then strike with guided missiles on the Polozhsk direction.
Counterattack: Ukrainian forces are trying to regroup in the Zholte area and have launched a counterattack that was stopped.
Drone Technology: The Russian military is reportedly using "Kulibin Club" donations to develop new drone, electronic warfare, robotic, and tactical transport technology. A new type of Russian drone that uses fiber optics to target vehicles has been reported.
FPV Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using FPV drones extensively and require more countermeasures against Russian drones.
Missile Attacks:
Massive Attack: Ukraine reports a massive Russian attack that involved 93 missiles and 200 drones. 81 missiles were shot down, including 11 cruise missiles shot down by F-16. Russia states that this strike was in response to the Ukrainian use of ATACMS missiles near Taganrog.
North Korean Missile: A North Korean missile was used in the attacks.
Strategic Bomber Activity: Multiple Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, with repeated launch maneuvers in the Caspian Sea.
Kalibr Missile Mobilization: Mobile launch platforms for Kalibr missiles are mobilizing in Novorossiysk.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ballistic missile threat originates from Crimea.
Multiple Launches: Multiple Russian missile launches are expected, with some targeted at Pryluky, and multiple Kalibr missiles are heading towards the Kirovograd Oblast, with some later changing course to Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
Kh-101 Missiles: Multiple Kh-101 missiles entered Ukrainian airspace through the Sumy Oblast and are traveling through the Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv regions.
Kinzhal Missiles: Kinzhal Missiles are being launched towards western Ukraine, with vectors including Zvyagel, Shepetovka, Ternopil, Stryi, Burshytn, and Zakarpattia.
Cruise Missile Launches: Multiple Cruise missiles are being launched from the Kherson region in the direction of Mykolaiv, and from the Kharkiv region towards Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, with some missiles passing near Bila Tserkva.
Ballistic Missile Launches: Multiple ballistic missiles have been launched towards Odesa from Crimea.
New Missile: A new type of air-to-surface missile is being used in the Kherson region in the direction of Voznesensk and Pervomaisk, and towards Bashtanka.
Targeted Infrastructure: Russia is targeting key Ukrainian infrastructure including transportation and energy networks.
KAB Bombs: Three Ukrainian DSNs (State Emergency Service) workers were injured by a Russian attack using KABs (guided bombs) in Stepnohirsk in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Intense Attack: The Prykarpattya region is facing its most intense attack since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Energy Infrastructure: Attacks were made on energy infrastructure in Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. 50% of the Ternopil region is without power.
Russian Rationale: Russian forces stated their attacks were in retaliation for Ukrainian ATACMS attacks on Taganrog.
Strike on Fuel/Energy Infrastructure: Russian missile strikes were focused on critical infrastructure targets in the fuel and energy sectors that support the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
Ukrainian Air Defense Success: A Ukrainian soldier from the Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigade shot down a Russian cruise missile using a "Stinger" MANPADS during a massive missile attack on the morning of December 13th.
Potential New Russian Missile Attack: Monitoring resources suggest that Russia might launch a new missile attack using the "Oreshnik" missile on December 18th, when the Kapustin Yar test site is expected to close.
Logistics:
State of Emergency in Moldova: Moldova is introducing a state of emergency starting December 16 due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine.
Mine Closure: The "Metinvest" metallurgical holding has stopped work at the "Shakhtoupravlenie "Pokrovskoe" coal site due to the approach of the front line.
Energy Crisis in Ukraine: Ukraine is facing an ongoing energy crisis due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Half of the population is expected to be without power.
"Ukrenergo" announced that on December 14th, there will be power outages in effect from 00:00 to 13:00 and 17:00 to 22:00 (one queue) and from 13:00 to 17:00 (two queues).
Political and Geopolitical:
The US has allocated a $500 million aid package to Ukraine.
The Biden administration intends to accelerate arms supplies to Ukraine, to provide Kyiv with a "huge amount of weapons" before Trump's inauguration.
Poland does not intend to send peacekeepers to Ukraine.
The EU has stated its desire to be involved in peace talks regarding the Ukrainian conflict.
The US opposes the use of US-made missiles by the Ukrainian military inside Russia.
Trump is suggesting that Europe deploy peacekeeping forces in Ukraine to establish a ceasefire.
The US will announce another aid package for Ukraine which will include additional air defense systems, artillery, drones, and armored vehicles.
The US State Department has imposed visa restrictions on officials and security forces from Georgia.
Medvedev stated that Ukraine must choose between aligning with Russia or disappearing from the world map.
The President of Georgia has stated that she will not leave the Presidential Palace after her term ends.
Marketplaces and large retail chains are planning to start operating in the rejoined territories at the end of this year.
Other Key Developments:
Donetsk Oblast:
Commander Replacement: Alexander Tarnavsky has replaced the commander of the "Donetsk" operational-tactical group.
Kurakhovo: Russian forces made significant advances in central Kurakhovo, securing the southeastern part of Uspenovka and raising their flag at the Kurakhove elevator and at Veselyi Hai. They are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant and within the city's multi-story buildings. Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from portions of Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Annovka, Uspenovka, and Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolsky), while maintaining control of Yantarne.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces advanced, capturing Novotroitskoye, Zarya, and Shevchenko. They are within 2km of the city outskirts, and small groups of Russian forces have infiltrated Pokrovsk.
Toretsk: Russian forces are consolidating control, controlling the Zabalok district and reportedly advancing near Dzerzhinsk, gaining control of the surrounding slag heaps and the central mine along with its spoil heaps.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces advanced north of Rivnopil in the western approaches to Velyka Novosilka and destroyed a Ukrainian platoon.
Konstantinopolskoye: Russian forces pushed towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye. They also cleared the eastern edge of the village and are fortifying and laying mines.
Kursk Region:
Russian Gains: Russian forces reportedly liberated Daryino, Novoivanovka, and Plyukhovo in the Sudzha district, taking a Ukrainian position in Plekhovo with the use of North Korean special forces.
Combat Activities: Intense combat is ongoing in the northern part of the Sudzha district.
Sumy Oblast:
Air Attacks: Russian forces launched repeated guided air bomb attacks, including on Sumy.
Territorial Advance: Russian forces advanced into the region near Aleksandria.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Missile Strike: A Russian quasi-ballistic missile (9M723-1 Iskander) strike hit a hospital complex, resulting in Ukrainian personnel losses and the death of a high-ranking NATO official. The death toll from the Russian missile strike on a hospital has risen to 6, with 22 injured.
Increased Attacks: There were 268 attacks on 10 settlements.
Kherson Oblast:
Drone Activity: Drones are moving northwest from the border with Mykolaiv Oblast, approaching Kherson from the direction of Zelenovka.
Kherson Threat: Kherson is under threat of attack from the north. Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to attack a civilian bus, resulting in casualties.
Kharkiv Oblast:
Air Attacks: Russian forces are launching guided air bomb attacks.
Drone Attack: A "Shahed" drone hit a residential building in Kharkiv, causing casualties.
Fighting: Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons. Fighting continues near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya, and Vovchansk.
Military Activity:
Advances: Russian forces have reportedly advanced near Dzerzhinsk and gained control of the surrounding slag heaps.
Targeting Supply Lines: Russian forces are using artillery and drones to target supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve.
Ukrainian Counterattacks: Ukrainian forces are counterattacking to impede Russian advances.
Mine Clearing: Russian forces are using mine-clearing techniques in Pavlovka, near Donetsk, as well as direct tank fire.
Drone Usage: Ukrainian forces are using drones near Kurakhovo.
Breakthrough Attempt: Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Uspenovka-Annovka-Veselyi Hai sector.
Withdrawal: Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from portions of Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Annovka, Uspenovka and Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolsky), while maintaining control of Yantarne.
Supply Route: Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Push Towards Konstantinopolskoye: Russian forces are pushing towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye.
Advancement on Vremevsk: Russian forces have advanced on the Vremevsk direction by 4 by 1.6 kilometers.
Repelled Attacks: Russian forces report they have repelled 20 Ukrainian attacks.
Fiber Optic Drones: Russian forces are reportedly using a new type of drone that uses fiber optics to target vehicles.
Ukrainian Air Activity: Ukrainian tactical aviation is conducting guided air bomb strikes in Donetsk region.
River Crossing Destruction: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the river Mokrye Yaly with an airstrike.
Village Capture: Russian troops have captured the village of Veselyi Gai, south of Kurakhovo. Russian forces have reportedly gained control of Plekhovo, in the Kursk region, with the help of North Korean Special Forces.
Air Force Scramble: Poland has scrambled their airforce due to the multiple missile strikes over Ukrainian territory near its border.
Explosions: There are multiple reports of explosions in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Lviv Oblasts.
Strategic Operations: Russian forces have secured positions in Uspenovka, with Ukrainian forces under high threat of encirclement. Hostile drone activity is increasing across Ukraine, including the regions surrounding Kyiv and other major population centers.
Drone Activity: A large number of drones are currently active across Ukraine, moving towards or over Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions. A large number of hostile drones are approaching or over Sumy, with some approaching the city of Pryluky in that region. New groups of drones are entering Sumy from the north and northeast, and also approaching Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Starokostiantyniv from other directions.
New messages: A Ukrainian Su-24 bomber was shot down near the village of Zolotoye, Donetsk Oblast. A Ukrainian UAV was shot down near Crimea. Border guards of the "Steel Frontier" brigade destroyed an enemy ammunition depot and several enemy shelters in the Sumy direction.
Casualties:
At least 6 people were killed in Zaporizhzhia on December 13th, and 22 more injured in a hospital strike.
Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region are stated to be over 200 soldiers.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian platoon near Velyka Novosilka.
Over 20 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly killed near Storozheve and Neskuchne.
One civilian was injured in Belgorod due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
One civilian was killed and two injured in a Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a civilian bus in the Kherson region.
Other Fronts:
Serebryansk Forest: Russian 16th Special Forces Brigade is conducting operations, utilizing drone-delivered munitions to eliminate enemy combatants.
Technological Warfare:
Russia is testing a new anti-drone camouflage system and anti-drone technology.
Belarus deployed a mobile communication system "Kulisa".
Ukrainian drones successfully used an FPV drone to destroy a Russian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station.
Ukrainian drones used a simultaneous drone strike on a single target.
A Ukrainian military unit successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone.
The Russian military is testing anti-drone camouflage and new anti-drone technology.
Belarus has deployed a "Kulisa" mobile communications system.
Russia is offering free IT training to its citizens.
Ukrainian forces are increasingly threatened by FPV drones.
Russian forces have modified a car to fire on drones with an open top.
A Russian FPV drone destroyed an Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone in the Kupyansk region.
A Russian T-72 tank was destroyed in the Luhansk region by a Ukrainian FPV drone.
Russian forces have released a video of Russian drones destroying Ukrainian drones in the Kupyansk area.
Russian forces have destroyed 10 Ukrainian drones in the Rostov and Belgorod regions in the last hour.
The Russian army has presented images of a Ukrainian vehicle they've captured, modified to act as an anti-drone platform.
The Russian army has released footage of an FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian T-72 tank.
A Russian FPV drone destroyed an M1 Abrams tank in the Kursk region.
Russian forces are using drones to target supply lines.
Ukrainian forces are using drones to strike Russian tanks.
A Ukrainian drone struck and damaged a Russian command post.
A Ukrainian drone crashed in the central part of Kyiv.
The Russian military is reporting that they have destroyed 10 drones over Rostov and Belgorod oblasts.
Russia has reported 6 drones shot down over Rostov Oblast and 4 over Belgorod Oblast.
Russian drone operators have reportedly shot down a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone in the Kupyansk region.
Ukrainian forces are reporting an increase in FPV drone activity.
The Russian airbase in Hmeymim, Syria is being targeted by drones, which can "freely" fly over the base.
Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
Ukrainian forces have used a surveying instrument to assist in artillery preparation.
Ukrainian forces may have used a fiber optic drone to attack a Russian vehicle.
Ukrainian forces may be using modified drones with tail fins and mini-bombs for more effective attacks.
Telegram moderators have removed over 10 million users per month who violated policies over the past few years, and in 2024, approximately 15.4 million channels and groups were removed.
Alleged International Involvement:
Unconfirmed reports claim that North Korean special forces participated in the liberation of Plekhovo in the Kursk region. A video from a Russian source states that North Korean troops were involved, but in conjunction with the 810th Marine Brigade.
Reports suggest that Israeli forces are expanding their occupied zone in the Golan Heights and preparing for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Drone Attacks in Germany: Several unidentified drones were spotted over military objects in Germany, including Rheinmetall plants, a BASF chemical plant, and the US Ramstein Air Base.
Internal Security:
A trans-woman in Russia was arrested and sent to a military recruiting office.
An ex-governor of the Ryazan region of Russia has been arrested on bribery charges.
A chief investor of the Russian football club "Khimki" was found not required for pre-trial custody and was released.
A Russian missile designer was reported killed by Ukrainian GUR agents.
There are reports of an ongoing dispute between the security forces of Hodorkovsky and Nevzlin related to an attack.
Increasing reports of corruption and embezzlement in Russia and Ukraine.
An FSB border guard recruitment video highlights their advanced technology and readiness for operations.
A Russian court sent the main investor of the football club "Khimki" under house arrest.
Reports indicate a Russian missile designer was killed by Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces have started proceedings against soldiers captured in the Kursk region.
An Odessa resident confessed to setting fire to several government buildings.
The Ukrainian National Police arrested a gambling ring that was fixing sports matches.
A Ukrainian citizen who is a supporter of the Shariy Party has been arrested on accusations of plotting to overthrow the government.
The investigation has revealed a network of propagandists who take orders from outside of Ukraine.
A Russian politician was convicted of receiving sexual services from minors.
A Ukrainian soldier was captured and found with instructions to not surrender, but rather to destroy themselves with grenades and to take out any nearby Russians.
Seven individuals who attacked a Jewish target at an airport in Makhachkala have been sentenced to 8-9 years in prison.
A Moscow resident jumped out of a window after his wife refused his request for a threesome.
Ukrainian forces have captured a group of Russian soldiers near Kharkiv.
A fake website impersonating the KGB of Belarus has been discovered. The fake website is hosted on a Romanian server and is designed to collect personal information from users. The official KGB website is currently under development. The official Telegram channel is @KGB_BY_channel, and the official feedback bot is @KGB_BY_bot.
The former head of the DPR government apparatus, Petkun, is accused of large-scale embezzlement.
The Minister of Digital Development and Communications of the Omsk region, Tsukanov, has been placed under house arrest on charges of embezzlement.
Other:
Ukraine will be discussing further anti-aircraft support with western allies next week.
Ukraine is implementing a new standardized system for rolling blackouts.
The Ukrainian government is trying to encourage Ukrainians currently residing in Germany to return home.
The Ukrainian National Bank has increased its interest rate from 13.0% to 13.5% to fight inflation.
The official currency rate of the dollar has decreased to 41.6588 UAH as of December 13th.
A fire was reported in a warehouse in Novosibirsk, Russia, which has now been confirmed to be a 5,000 square meter warehouse fire, and a special firefighting train has been deployed to the area.
Ukrainian forces laid mines in the Serebryansk forest, using cassette munitions and German anti-tank mines.
A missile or drone attack on Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, resulted in damage to an industrial facility, a boiler plant, and vehicles, possibly using ATACMS missiles.
Several large fires were reported, including a 5,000-square meter warehouse fire in Novosibirsk, and a fire at a Transneft oil depot in Bryansk, and a fire at a production facility (fire extinguished by emergency services) in Bryansk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces remotely laid mines in the Serebryansk forest.
A report indicates that Russia destroyed ten UAVs over Bryansk Oblast.
A Russian quasi-ballistic missile struck a hospital complex in Zaporizhzhia, killing nine people and injuring twenty-two.
There are reports that North Korean troops are fighting in Ukraine near Kursk.
A Ukrainian captured soldier has stated that he was sent to fight in the Kursk region, given instructions not to surrender, but rather to destroy himself with grenades and to kill any Russians he could.
A Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a tank was reported near Novotroitskoye.
A Russian soldier used an RPO-A "Shmel" rocket propelled grenade on a Ukrainian position in Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces have blown up a bridge leading to Pokrovsk.
A fire has been reported at a Russian warehouse in Novosibirsk, covering over 5000 square meters.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly blocked a group of Russian soldiers in the Kurakhovo Thermal Power Plant.
Reports indicate a potential Russian ballistic missile launch has been cancelled as NOTAM messages about airspace being closed in that region have been rescinded.
A Ukrainian soldier was captured and found with instructions to not surrender, but rather to destroy themselves with grenades and to take out any nearby Russians.
Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions using guided air bombs.
Ukrainian instructors will be trained in basic combat techniques in Lithuania in 2025.
It is planned to launch a pilot project next year to train instructors in shooting courses with the support of NATO.
The Ukrainian 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade used mobile rocket launchers in nighttime operations.
A group of Russian soldiers has been captured by Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv.
Russian forces may be relying on public donations for essential military supplies such as drones and protection gear.
Ukrainian forces are actively preparing to defend from long range artillery fire with the use of surveying equipment.
Ukraine has received another military aid package from the US, which will include air defense, artillery, drones, and military vehicles.
A Russian vehicle was destroyed with the use of what appears to be a fiber optic FPV drone.
A pro-Ukrainian source has stated that 375 drones have been purchased.
Ukrainian forces are facing a dangerous situation in Uspenovka where they are at high risk of being encircled.
The intensity of Russian guided air bomb usage has reportedly decreased by over 50% since the middle of November after long-range missiles were cleared for use against targets inside Russia.
US has announced over $440 million in aid for the Ukrainian economy.
The body of the second individual who was buried under rubble at a mine in Yakutia has been found.
Sweden and Denmark are supplying Ukraine with a new modification of the CV9035 MkIIIC infantry fighting vehicle.
The former head of the DPR government apparatus, Petkun, is accused of large-scale embezzlement.
The Minister of Digital Development and Communications of the Omsk region, Tsukanov, has been placed under house arrest on charges of embezzlement.
Only 4% of Ukrainians donated 1,000 UAH of the "Winter eSupport" to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The majority spent the money on utilities (63%) and mobile communications (17%).
Attendees will not be allowed to bring posters or flags larger than A4 size to Putin's press conference and direct line.
Some terminals may stop supporting MasterCard and Visa cards starting January 1st. Online payments should not be affected. The company recommends using the "Mir" card for stable payments.
Donetsk is under attack from Ukrainian rockets.
There has been a report of a Ukrainian attack on a civilian bus in the Kherson region, resulting in one death and two injuries.
Updated Assessment of Key Areas:
Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces continue to make significant gains, particularly near Kurakhovo, and are putting pressure on Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold defensive positions and are losing ground. Intense fighting continues across Donbas and in Lyman. Supply lines to Kurakhovo have been severely severed. Ukrainian forces are demonstrating shortages of resources and leadership. Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk Oblast with the capture of Zarya, as well as other areas north and south of Pokrovsk.
Russian Operations in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts: Russian forces are continuing to advance in these regions, focusing on territorial control. Ukrainian forces are using drone attacks in the Kursk region. Russia is increasing its border operations, and has liberated a village in Kursk Oblast. Russian troops are reportedly advancing into Sumy Oblast and are near Aleksandria.
Drone Warfare: Drones are increasingly used by both sides for reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeted attacks, including FPV drones and kamikaze drones. There is a critical need for effective counter-drone measures. Russia is using drones to target Ukrainian air assets on the ground. Ukraine is using drones and ATACMS missiles to strike infrastructure. Drones are being used both offensively and defensively by both sides.
Information Warfare: Both sides actively engage in information warfare, attempting to undermine opponent morale and influence public opinion through propaganda. Social media is a critical part of these operations. Ukraine is considering more restrictions on Telegram as a source of disinformation. Russian sources are using propaganda channels, including a "Diary of a Paratrooper" social media group to distribute messaging. Ukrainian officials are trying to restrict access to Telegram as they claim it is a source of disinformation. Russian forces stated their attacks were in retaliation for Ukrainian ATACMS attacks on Taganrog.
Internal Security: Both Ukraine and Russia are actively working to prevent and deter internal threats. Russia is increasing counter-terrorism operations in border regions. Ukraine is arresting Shariy Party members and propagandists to undermine internal destabilization.
Economic Instability: The Russian economy is showing continued signs of struggle with evidence of corruption, economic uncertainty, and decreased stability. Ukrainian forces are suffering from significant logistical issues, a direct symptom of resource limitation.
Humanitarian Crisis: Civilian casualties continue to rise, particularly in areas heavily targeted by missiles and artillery. Civilian access to basic medical services is a primary concern, especially for displaced people. There is a clear need for humanitarian support. There are increasing reports of civilian suffering and a greater need for resilience centers. Water shortages persist in the LNR.
Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:
Strengthen Defenses: Fortify key locations of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove due to heightened Russian military activity. Enhance defenses against advancing Russian forces in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Improve fortifications and counter-battery measures to better defend the region. Increase focus on securing transport arteries leading to Kurakhove. Deploy forces to secure and protect fortified positions to prevent them from being captured without a fight. Focus on fortifications and mine clearing around Selidovo.
Address Troop Morale: Counter Russian psychological operations by developing and implementing strategies to boost morale. Investigate claims of low morale, as well as any claims of internal corruption. Address logistical challenges to ensure troops are well supported. Work to improve communication between leadership and combat troops. Address widespread reports of theft and looting in Ukrainian rear areas. Investigate the validity of reports regarding orders to commit suicide instead of being captured.
Enhance Air and Counter-Drone Measures: Prioritize air defense and deploy effective counter-drone measures and new counter-drone technology. Research new methods of defense to deal with the ever-increasing threat from drones. Focus on drone countermeasures. Improve Ukrainian intelligence capabilities to counteract increasingly effective Russian use of drones.
Secure Supply Lines: Evaluate and secure logistical routes and find alternate paths to prevent disruptions. Address the impact of Ukrainian banks reducing card-to-card transfer limits. Address the significant gaps in Ukrainian defensive lines, prioritizing the areas between Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhovo, and Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk. Secure roads in the area of Pokrovsk as this area has a strong likelihood of being engaged in combat.
Target Financial Networks: Actively work to identify and target Russian financial networks used to support military operations. Investigate and address corruption leading to supply chain issues. Investigate the "RUSORIZ" bank account.
Enhance Drone Capabilities: Develop and deploy advanced drone technology for both surveillance and attacks, focusing on drone countermeasures. Increase focus on securing transport arteries leading to Kurakhove. Account for the emergence of new Ukrainian drone designs.
Counter Russian Propaganda: Develop and implement an effective counter-information strategy to combat Russian narratives. Address information warfare tactics, and provide clear and consistent counter-narratives. Address the significant gaps in Ukrainian defensive lines, prioritizing the areas between Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhovo, and Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk. Address growing use of disinformation campaigns by both sides. Counter Russian disinformation regarding incursions into Sumy Oblast. Analyze and track disinformation and propaganda being pushed by all parties involved in the conflict, and adjust messaging accordingly. Address the potential for increased cyber warfare capabilities and disinformation.
Focus on Internal Stability: Continue counterintelligence and law enforcement operations to disrupt internal threats, including pro-Russian political networks. Focus on uncovering and mitigating internal sabotage efforts. Investigate any reports of faulty munitions. Address growing use of disinformation campaigns by both sides.
Civilian Protection: Prioritize civilian protection and support services for internally displaced people. Maintain medical support and communication. Address unexploded ordnance concerns. Address the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, including the rising civilian casualties. Support the development and maintenance of resilience centers in high-risk areas. Provide support to those affected by the mass evacuation order in Yenakiieve and Zlatopole. Address the impact of the ammunition depot detonation in Yenakiieve.
Address Sanctions Circumvention: Work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
Address the Syrian Instability: Closely monitor the situation in Syria and analyze potential impacts on regional stability. Monitor Iranian attempts to maintain influence in the region following the fall of Assad's regime. Monitor Israel's potential occupation of Damascus. Monitor the Syrian opposition's withdrawal from captured cities. Monitor the potential for IS resurgence due to the collapse of the Assad regime.
Investigate Claims of Election Interference: Investigate claims of Russian interference in the Romanian elections.
Monitor Russian Mobilization Efforts: Monitor and analyze Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns.
Prepare for CBRN Threats: Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats by having appropriate equipment and training.
Address Potential for EU Peacekeepers: Further analyze the potential deployment of European Peacekeepers and the implications this could have for the conflict, as well as post conflict operations. Closely monitor the potential deployment of international peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, and consider the impacts these would have on both current operations and future scenarios.
Address Disinformation: Analyze and track disinformation and propaganda being pushed by all parties involved in the conflict, and adjust messaging accordingly. Assess the nature and implications of the pro-Russian messaging channels operating on Telegram. Analyze and track disinformation and propaganda being pushed by all parties involved in the conflict, and adjust messaging accordingly. Address concerns regarding the use of Telegram as a vector for disinformation and potential espionage. Identify and disrupt Ukrainian operations using call centers and similar for disinformation and recruitment. Counter Russian disinformation regarding incursions into Sumy Oblast.
Improve Logistical Operations: Improve logistical operations, particularly in areas experiencing supply chain failures. Investigate and address corruption leading to supply chain issues. Improve logistical support for Ukrainian drone units. Address the logistical challenges highlighted by the Ukrainian military officer's testimony regarding the mobilization efforts. Address the critical logistical failures contributing to low morale and abandonment of troops, especially in Kurakhovo. Address widespread reports of theft and looting in Ukrainian rear areas. Address the potential impact of Ukrainian banks reducing card-to-card transfer limits. Ensure that all personnel have access to water, particularly in the LNR region.
Monitor Military Operations: Continue active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses. Continue to monitor the ongoing conflict and look for weaknesses or potential vulnerabilities for exploitation. Monitor for acts of sabotage within Russia and Ukraine, paying particular attention to potential Ukrainian operations using online recruiting and targeting critical infrastructure. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract increasingly effective Russian use of drones. Increase focus on identifying and neutralizing potential sabotage efforts inside Russia. Monitor the potential for internal instability within Russia given the video appeal from residents of the settlement of Perevalovo in the Tyumen Oblast. Address reports of corruption within Ukrainian military and civilian organizations. Assess the implications of the large-scale Israeli strike on Latakia. Monitor Iranian attempts to maintain influence in the region following the fall of Assad's regime. Monitor Israel's potential occupation of Damascus. Monitor the Syrian opposition's withdrawal from captured cities. Closely monitor the situation in Manbij and Turkish involvement. Monitor Israeli operations closely. Monitor the potential impact of HTS being removed from the terrorist list. Monitor the Russian withdrawal from Syria. Monitor the increasing reports of DRG activity in Pokrovsk and the surrounding areas.
Assess Impact of Economic and Political Instability: Continue to monitor and assess the impact of economic and political instability both in Russia and in Ukraine.
Address Reports of Atrocities: Investigate and address the reports of atrocities, particularly those coming from Kursk Oblast (POW camp strike and other incidents) and from Syria (public execution, execution of wounded soldiers). Investigate and address reports of extrajudicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants and the use of drones. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar incidents.
Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
