Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 13, 2024 (06:45:23 UTC)
Eastern Ukraine:
Russian forces are advancing in central Kurakhovo, with Ukrainian forces at high risk of encirclement in Uspenovka, Veselyi Hai, and Annovka.
Russian forces continue to advance south of Sontsivka and west from Novotroitskoye and Kurakhovo.
Russian forces are advancing south of Pokrovsk. Intense fighting is reported near Shevchenko, Pischane, Novotroyitske, Novooleksiyivka, Novyy Trud, Dachenske, Lysivka, Myrolubivka, and Promin. Ukrainian forces have sustained 203 attacks in the last 2 days.
Russian air attacks are targeting Toretsk, with fighting near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Russian forces have secured the southeastern part of Uspenovka, cutting off Ukrainian escape routes from Annivka.
Russian forces are advancing towards Scherbynivka and Leonidivka west of Toretsk.
Russian forces have established control north of Petrovka near Pokrovsk and continue to attack towards Dachnoye and Zelenoye.
Russian forces are advancing near Novotroitskoye, and also south of Voznesenka, stretching Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
Russian forces have captured Novotroitskoye and Zarya and are advancing at Sonstovka, Kruglakovka, Veselyi Gai and Uspenovka.
Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and have advanced near Dzerzhinsk.
Kursk Region:
Russian forces are engaged in intense combat in the northern part of the Sudzha district, specifically in the forests east of Novoivanovka and the village of Nikolayevo-Dar'ino.
Russian forces took a Ukrainian position in Plekhovo with the use of special forces from North Korea.
Russian forces have reportedly liberated the village of Daryino and Novoivanovka in the Sudzha district.
A T-72B3M tank destroyed a Ukrainian firing position with direct fire, clearing a path through a minefield.
An M1 Abrams tank has been destroyed by a Russian FPV drone.
A captured Ukrainian soldier stated he was instructed not to surrender, but rather to destroy himself with grenades.
Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region were stated to be over 200 soldiers, two armored fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, and three mortars.
Russian marines have taken a fortified position from Ukrainian forces in the Kursk border region.
Russian forces using fiber optic drones destroyed two Ukrainian vehicles near Mala Loknya.
A drone attack on a vehicle carrying Russian border guards in the Glushkovsky area resulted in 1 death and 4 injuries.
Sumy Oblast:
Russian forces are launching repeated guided air bomb attacks in the region.
New groups of Russian drones are entering from the Kursk region, heading southwest, with multiple drones moving towards Kyiv and Poltava and Pryluky.
Russian drones are moving south/southwest.
Sumy is under threat of attack from the northwest and northeast.
Russian tactical aviation is active, conducting guided air bomb strikes on Sumy.
Russian forces have advanced into the region near the village of Aleksandria.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Russian forces are launching attacks on locations of Ukrainian troop concentrations and drone operators.
A Russian quasi-ballistic missile (9M723-1 Iskander) strike hit a hospital complex, resulting in Ukrainian personnel losses and the death of a high-ranking NATO official.
There have been 268 attacks on 10 settlements, involving 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes.
Ukrainian HIMARS units are deployed in Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian authorities are evacuating civilians from Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson Oblast:
Drones are moving northwest from the border with Mykolaiv Oblast.
Drones are approaching Kherson from the direction of Zelenovka.
Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.
There has been a reported firefight near the Antonovsky Bridge.
Russian forces have attacked the towns of Mikhailovka and Nikolsky.
Kharkiv Oblast:
Russian forces are launching guided air bomb attacks.
A "Shahed" drone hit a residential building in Kharkiv, causing casualties.
Drones are moving west/southwest from the southern part of the region.
Ukrainian air defense systems have forced a change in Russian drone attack routes near Kharkiv.
Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Russian forces have disrupted a Ukrainian attack in the Liptsi area.
Fighting is continuing near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya and Vovchansk.
Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Ukrainian forces are evacuating residents of 344 settlements.
Toretsk/Kramatorsk Direction:
Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk, controlling the Zabalok district and the central mine along with its spoil heaps.
Russian forces have reportedly advanced near Dzerzhinsk and gained control of the surrounding slag heaps.
Fighting is ongoing on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound in Chasov Yar.
Other Fronts:
Russian 16th Special Forces Brigade is conducting operations near the Serebryansk forest.
Russian forces are targeting supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve but haven't fully cut them off.
Russian forces are using artillery and drones to target supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve.
Russian forces have destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the river Mokrye Yaly with an airstrike.
Russian forces have been using mine-clearing techniques in Pavlovka, near Donetsk, as well as direct tank fire.
Russian forces have destroyed a German-made BMP Marder vehicle near Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces have blown up a bridge leading to Pokrovsk.
Russian forces report using a new type of drone that uses fiber optics to target vehicles.
A Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a tank was reported near Novotroitskoye.
Russian armored vehicles have achieved tactical gains to the south of Pushkino.
Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from portions of Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Annovka, Uspenovka and Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolsky), while maintaining control of Yantarne.
Russian forces have taken the village of Zarya.
Russian forces are pushing towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye.
Russian forces report they have broken through Ukrainian lines.
Russian forces liberated Novotroitskoye and Shevchenko near Pokrovsk, and Veselyi Hai south of Kurakhovo, and took full control of the Tsentralnaya mine in Toretsk.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian platoon near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant and within the city's multi-story buildings.
Drone Warfare:
Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
Ukrainian drones are active across the country.
Numerous drones are moving across Ukraine towards Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Numerous drones are moving towards Sumy and Pryluky.
Drones are active on the border of Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi regions, moving southeast.
Drones are moving through the Khmelnytska and Rivne Oblasts.
Drones are active in eastern Kyiv region, moving west.
Drones are now moving from the Black Sea towards Tatarbunary.
A large group of drones has launched from the Black Sea, moving towards Tatarbunary.
Drones are approaching Bila Tserkva, Belyayevka, and Borispil.
Drones have struck several targets in the Kursk region.
Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target.
Russian operators of FPV drones destroyed an Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
Russian forces have reported destroying a Ukrainian armored vehicle with a drone in the Kharkiv region.
Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
Multiple Ukrainian drones are traveling west from Sumy Oblast and southwest from Poltava Oblast.
Ukrainian forces may have used a fiber optic drone to attack a Russian vehicle.
High speed drones are a threat to Ternopil.
13 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov and Lipetsk regions.
Multiple Russian drones are threatening the Lviv region.
A Russian drone attack has been reported in Haisyn in Vinnytsia Oblast and in the Oktyabrsky region of Belgorod.
Missile Attacks
Multiple Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, with repeated launch maneuvers in the Caspian Sea.
Mobile launch platforms for Kalibr missiles are mobilizing in Novorossiysk.
Ballistic missile threat originates from Crimea.
Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv.
"Kalibr" missiles have been launched from the Black Sea, triggering air raid alerts across Ukraine.
Multiple Russian missile launches are expected, with some targeted at Pryluky.
Multiple Kalibr missiles are heading towards the Kirovograd Oblast, with some later changing course to Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
Multiple Kh-101 missiles have entered Ukrainian airspace through the Sumy Oblast.
Missiles are now traveling through the Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv regions.
Missiles have reached Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv oblasts.
A rocket attack is expected in Ukrainian air space around 07:40.
Missiles have reached Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv oblasts, with a missile targeted at Pryluky.
Logistics:
Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine, starting December 16.
The "Metinvest" metallurgical holding has stopped work at the "Shakhtoupravlenie "Pokrovskoe" coal site due to the approach of the front line.
The Russian airbase in Hmeymim, Syria is being targeted by drones.
Russian forces report that they are manually digging bunkers due to a lack of available earthmoving equipment.
Military Activity:
Russian forces have secured positions within Uspenovka.
Russian forces have reportedly advanced near Dzerzhinsk and gained control of the surrounding slag heaps.
Russian forces are using artillery and drones to target supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve.
Ukrainian forces are counterattacking to impede Russian advances.
Russian forces are using mine-clearing techniques in Pavlovka, near Donetsk, as well as direct tank fire.
Russian forces destroyed a German-made BMP Marder vehicle near Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces are using drones near Kurakhovo.
Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Uspenovka-Annovka-Veselyi Hai sector.
Ukrainian forces are being cut off between Uspenovka and Hannevka by Russian troop movements.
Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from portions of Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Annovka, Uspenovka and Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolsky), while maintaining control of Yantarne.
Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Russian forces are pushing towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye.
Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Uspenovka-Annovka-Veselyi Hai sector.
Russian forces have advanced on the Vremevsk direction by 4 by 1.6 kilometers.
Russian forces report that they have broken through Ukrainian lines.
Russian forces report they have repelled 20 Ukrainian attacks.
Russian forces are reportedly using a new type of drone that uses fiber optics to target vehicles.
Ukrainian tactical aviation is conducting guided air bomb strikes in Donetsk region.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the river Mokrye Yaly with an airstrike.
Russian forces have been using mine-clearing techniques in Pavlovka, near Donetsk, as well as direct tank fire.
Russian troops have captured the village of Veselyi Gai, south of Kurakhovo.
Other Conflicts:
Israeli forces are preparing for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities after destroying most of Syria's air defense capabilities.
Israel continues to expand its occupied zone in the Golan Heights.
"Green" militant forces are expected to attempt to seize the western bank of the Euphrates River from Kurdish forces in Syria.
The US destroyed a bridge in Deir ez-Zor to halt the advance of these forces, though tensions remain.
A diplomatic meeting was held between the Turkish Foreign Minister and a French-Kurdish-US delegation in Damascus.
Israeli ground forces are occupying more areas near the UNDOF buffer zone.
Israeli forces conducted an airstrike on the Mezzeh airport near Damascus.
Mohammed Alloush, a prominent Syrian opposition figure, has stated Syria's desire for cooperation with all nations based on non-interference, and that the Syrian people would decide on the future of US military presence in Syria, as well as the issue of Russian military bases.
Russia stated it is in contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria and also with Israel about the situation in Syria.
Increased tensions are reported in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israeli forces conducted strikes in the Gaza Strip, killing 40 and injuring over 100.
IDF forces are operating in Beit Lahia, Jabalia, and Rafah.
An attack on a bus south of Jerusalem killed a child and injured others.
Hezbollah and Israel continue to observe a ceasefire.
Russia stated it will assist any Russian citizens who want to leave Syria.
A group of Russian-speaking fighters in Syria stated they will attack Alawite civilians.
Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Syria, but Russia stated it is close to an agreement with new Syrian leaders to maintain its military bases.
The US has reported that they have been in contact with Turkish government officials regarding the situation in Syria.
A video has emerged claiming to show the UK's military activity in Afghanistan.
Casualties:
One civilian was injured in Belgorod due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
A "Shahed" drone hit a residential building in Kharkiv resulting in casualties.
The death toll from the Zaporizhzhia hospital attack has risen to nine.
Over 20 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly killed near Storozheve and Neskuchne.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian platoon near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces captured five Ukrainian soldiers near Velyka Novosilka, and additional soldiers in other regions of Ukraine.
Over 40 Palestinians were killed and over 100 injured in Israeli attacks in Gaza.
Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region were stated to be over 200 soldiers, two armored fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, and three mortars.
One civilian was killed by a drone attack in Belgorod.
A drone attack on a vehicle carrying Russian border guards in the Glushkovsky area resulted in 1 death and 4 injuries.
At least 3 men were reported wounded due to Russian attacks in the Vasylivskyi region.
Political and Geopolitical:
The US has allocated a $500 million aid package to Ukraine including HIMARS munitions, anti-tank weapons, and anti-drone systems.
Cuba and Bolivia may join BRICS as partner countries in 2025.
The outgoing Biden administration may increase sanctions on Russian oil exports.
The US House of Representatives has approved a 2025 defense budget without a lend-lease agreement with Ukraine.
A Trump administration may reduce US aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine may face tension with a Trump administration due to perceived support for the Democratic party in the pre-election period.
The US has removed a lend-lease agreement to Ukraine from its 2025 defense budget.
Xi Jinping is not expected to attend the inauguration of Donald Trump.
The US State Department approved a $266 million package for servicing Ukrainian F-16s.
The Canadian Parliament approved a ~$600 million direct military aid package for Ukraine, with additional funding for financial support and demining/cybersecurity.
The EU has stated its desire to be involved in peace talks regarding the Ukrainian conflict.
The US opposes the use of US-made missiles by the Ukrainian military inside Russia.
Poland stated it will not send troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.
Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area on January 1st, 2025.
Russia and India have signed a major oil deal.
Russia is publicly stating it is in contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, and working with them to maintain Russian military bases.
The Russian government is offering support to any Russian citizens who would like to leave Syria.
The head of Turkish intelligence is in Damascus.
Israel is preparing for attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, believing that the Iranian proxies have weakened and the Assad regime has fallen.
Donald Trump has suggested that European troops should be used as a peacekeeping force in the region and does not support Ukraine's entry into NATO.
The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated that he would like to see a free Iran and mentioned that billions of dollars that Iran spent on conflicts in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon had essentially been destroyed.
The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, stated that there are no negotiations with the Russian government, and stated that Ukraine did not believe it had the capability to participate in negotiations.
A Berlin Declaration was signed by six European countries and the EU, affirming support for Ukraine joining both the EU and NATO, and stating that peace must be based on the Ukrainian peace formula.
The US will announce another aid package for Ukraine which will include additional air defense systems, artillery, drones, and armored vehicles.
The opposition in Georgia has stated that they do not recognize the election results for president.
Trump is suggesting that Europe deploy peacekeeping forces in Ukraine to establish a ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has visited a unit that is using HIMARS in the Zaporizhzhia region.
France will continue to provide Ukraine with assistance.
The US State Department has imposed visa restrictions on officials and security forces from Georgia.
The US has provided a new $500 million aid package to Ukraine.
The Russian Duma is planning to introduce ruble-based special accounts for foreign agents.
The Russian Duma is preparing to review a bill to cancel the negative credit history of combatants.
The director of Rosgvardia has been given the title of Hero of Russia.
Telegram has banned around 10 million users per month.
Updated Assessment of Key Areas:
Kurakhovo/Pokrovsk Axis: The situation is critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces advancing through the central parts of Kurakhovo, and reportedly consolidating control in the south of Kurakhovo, and the villages of Uspenovka, Veselyi Hai, and Annovka are at high risk of being encircled. Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
Kursk/Sumy Border: Heavy fighting continues with Ukrainian counterattacks.
Odessa: Ballistic missiles have targeted the city causing explosions, damage to power grids, and disruption to water and electricity.
Major Updates from Last 6 Hours:
Russian forces are focusing efforts on targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
The Ukrainian military confirms the Russian missile strikes and are responding to them.
The Polish military has scrambled aircraft in response to the missile strikes on Ukraine and their borders.
Russia is using Tu-95MS strategic bombers to launch Kh-101 cruise missiles on Ukraine.
Russian forces are continuing to make gains on multiple fronts.
The Russian army is using modified consumer drones to attack logistical hubs, troop concentrations, and other high-value targets far behind enemy lines.
The Russian forces are using fiber optic drones to attack Ukrainian vehicles near Mala Loknya.
Russia has targeted the Ukrainian Airforce airfield near Starokostyantyniv
Russian forces continue to capture, question, and publicize the apprehension of Ukrainian soldiers.
Russia is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia.
Russia is using propaganda to influence public opinion.
Russia has attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure causing power cuts.
The US has conducted a successful test of a hypersonic weapon.
A Russian missile attack on Taganrog resulted in damage to an industrial facility.
A drone attack on a Transneft oil depot in Bryansk resulted in significant damage.
Google Play will suspend services for Russian developers on December 26th.
The Russian military has made advancements in multiple areas, including near Chasiv Yar, Kurakhovo, Shevchenko, and Robotyne.
A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station.
Ukrainian forces are under pressure and are withdrawing from multiple locations in Eastern Ukraine.
A mass-casualty attack in Odessa caused disruption in multiple areas and has knocked out public transit.
The Russian military has begun testing the Oreshnik missile.
The Russian military is making advances along multiple areas including south of Bakhmut and around Avdiivka.
Russia claims control of multiple populated places.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the river Mokrye Yaly with an airstrike.
A Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a tank was reported near Novotroitskoye.
Poland has scrambled their air force in response to the Russian attacks.
Ukraine is experiencing severe power outages in multiple cities.
Russian forces have achieved tactical success in the south-eastern approaches to Krasnoarmeisk.
High speed drones are a threat to Ternopil.
A new ballistic missile threat has emerged from Crimea.
A Russian quasi-ballistic missile strike hit a hospital complex in Zaporizhzhia, resulting in casualties.
The Novoshahtinsk oil refinery in Rostov region was reportedly attacked by drones.
Russian forces report that they are manually digging bunkers due to a lack of available earthmoving equipment.
Russian troops have captured the village of Veselyi Gai, south of Kurakhovo.
Russia has publicly acknowledged military cooperation with North Korea, including the deployment of soldiers to assist Russian forces.
A drone attack on a vehicle carrying Russian border guards in the Glushkovsky area resulted in 1 death and 4 injuries.
Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
Russian marines have taken a fortified position from Ukrainian forces in the Kursk border region.
The Russian military is reportedly using "Kulibin Club" donations to develop new drone, electronic warfare, robotic, and tactical transport technology.
A T-72B3M tank destroyed a Ukrainian firing position with direct fire, clearing a path through a minefield.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian platoon near Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian forces were instructed not to surrender, but rather to destroy themselves with grenades.
Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region were stated to be over 200 soldiers.
A captured Ukrainian soldier stated he was instructed not to surrender, but rather to destroy himself with grenades.
Ukrainian forces are being cut off between Uspenovka and Hannevka by Russian troop movements.
The Russian military has begun testing the Oreshnik missile.
The Russian military is making advances along multiple areas including south of Bakhmut and around Avdiivka.
A member of a self-defense force was killed in a drone attack in the Terebrensky region of the Belgorod oblast.
Russia claims to have taken Novotroitskoye and Shevchenko near Pokrovsk.
Russia claims full control of the Tsentralnaya mine in Toretsk.
Multiple Ukrainian drones are traveling west from Sumy Oblast.
Multiple Ukrainian drones are traveling southwest from Poltava Oblast.
A Ukrainian UAV has crashed in the center of Kyiv, specifically in the Pecherskyi district.
Drones have struck several targets in the Kursk region.
One civilian was killed in a drone attack in the Belgorod region.
Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Russian forces report that they have broken through Ukrainian lines.
Multiple Kalibr missiles are heading towards the Kirovograd Oblast, with some later changing course to Odesa.
Multiple Kh-101 missiles have entered Ukrainian airspace through the Sumy Oblast.
The Ukrainian military is reporting heavy use of FPV drones on their side of the conflict.
The Ukrainian military is reporting a shortage of anti-drone countermeasures.
Russian forces have destroyed a German-made BMP Marder vehicle near Shevchenko.
A ballistic missile has been reported in Kharkhiv.
A ballistic missile has been reported in Slobozhanske, Kharkiv Oblast.
A ballistic missile has been reported in the direction of Kremenchuk.
Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv.
The Russian government is offering support to any Russian citizens who would like to leave Syria.
Russia is reportedly in contact with HTS in Syria.
Russia is reportedly withdrawing its forces from Syria, but is working on an agreement to retain its bases there.
One civilian was injured due to a drone attack in the Belgorod region.
A drone attack on a vehicle carrying Russian border guards in the Glushkovsky area resulted in 1 death and 4 injuries.
Data Collection and Preprocessing:
Data is continuously gathered from all available sources and preprocessed for analysis.
Analysis and Modeling:
Data is run through existing machine learning models to create insights into enemy movements and potential threats.
Predictive modeling will anticipate enemy movements and identify potential threats.
Reporting and Visualization:
Detailed reports with supporting visualizations and recommendations will be provided to command.
Information will be presented clearly, concisely, and tailored to the needs of different command levels.
Feedback Loop:
Commander feedback is used to adjust current and future recommendations.
Continuous improvement will be implemented based on operational feedback and new intelligence.
