Sitrep 2024-12-13 04:47:23

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 13, 2024 (04:45:05 UTC)

Eastern Ukraine:

Russian forces are advancing in central Kurakhovo along multiple streets, including Nagornaya 1st and 2nd, Prokop'yeva, and Zaporozhsky Avenue, while Ukrainian forces are at high risk of encirclement in Uspenovka, Veselyi Hai, and Annovka.
The situation in Uspenovka, Veselyi Hai and Annovka is described by Ukrainian channels as "critical".
Russian forces continue to advance in the south of Sontsivka, liberating Zarya and taking neighboring tree lines.
Russian forces are pushing from Novotroitskoye towards the west.
Russian forces are advancing towards the west from the central part of Kurakhovo.
Russian forces have expanded their gains south of Dvurichna.
Fighting is ongoing near the fire station on Grueshevaya street, and near a school, a lyceum, and the high school on Pushkina street in Kurakhovo.
Russian forces have taken a 4 by 1.6 kilometer piece of territory near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces are continuing their advance south of Pokrovsk, with fighting described as exceptionally harsh, including fights near Shevchenko, Pischane, Novotroyitske, Novooleksiyivka, Novyy Trud, Dachenske, Lysivka, Myrolubivka, Promin and Pokrovsk itself. Ukrainian forces report having sustained 203 attacks over the last 2 days. Russian air attacks are targeting Toretsk, and fighting has been reported near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
Russian forces have expanded their gains south of Dvurichna.
Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of Yantarne.
Russian forces have destroyed a Ukrainian grouping of forces between the villages of Elizavetovka and Uspenovka.
Russian forces are consolidating control in the southern Kurakhovo district, with fighting continuing in the city center.
Russian forces have secured the southeastern part of Uspenovka, cutting off Ukrainian escape routes from Annivka.
Russian forces are making advancements near Toretsk, controlling the Zabalok district and the central mine along with its spoil heaps, and are advancing towards Scherbynivka and Leonidivka to the west.
Near Pokrovsk, Russian forces have established control over the area north of Petrovka and continue to attack towards Dachnoye and Zelenoye. They are making advances near Novotroitskoye, and also south of Voznesenka. The advances are stretching Ukrainian forces and limiting their ability to transfer reinforcements.
Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar, capturing a strongpoint despite Ukrainian use of cluster munitions.

Kursk Region:

Russian forces are engaged in intense combat in the northern part of the Sudzha district, specifically in the forests east of Novoivanovka and the village of Nikolayevo-Dar'ino.
Russian forces are continuing to advance in the north of the Sudzha district, particularly near Novoivanovka and the forests near Mala Loknya.
Fighting is also ongoing in the area of Sverdlikovo, near Novoivanovka, and the village of Martynovka, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly launching counterattacks.
Ukrainian forces report that they have repelled 22 Russian army assaults in Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces have taken a Ukrainian position in Plekhovo on the Kursk border region with the use of special forces from North Korea.
Russian special forces from North Korea have reportedly advanced two kilometers through a minefield to take the village of Plekhovo.
Russian forces have reportedly liberated the village of Daryino in the Sudzha district.
Russian forces have liberated Novoivanovka in the Kursk region.
Russian drone operations continue, targeting Ukrainian positions on the Kursk front. Drone operators from the BAKSAN unit are actively destroying Ukrainian positions.
A T-72B3M tank successfully destroyed a Ukrainian firing position with direct fire, clearing a path for advancing infantry through a minefield.
An M1 Abrams tank has been destroyed by a Russian FPV drone in Kursk Oblast.
A Russian FPV drone destroyed an M1 Abrams tank in the Kursk region.
Russian forces are reported to have used drone attacks in this region.
Ukrainian forces are reportedly using "remote workers" in the Kursk region.
Russian forces are using tank direct fire to clear mines and Ukrainian firing positions in this region.
A captured Ukrainian soldier has stated that he was sent to fight in the Kursk region, given instructions not to surrender, but rather to destroy himself with grenades and to kill any Russians he could.
Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region were stated to be over 200 soldiers, two armored fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, and three mortars.
There is an increased air threat, including drones, over the Kursk region.
A Russian soldier serving as a driver reported on his role in repairing and resupplying equipment on the front lines, emphasizing volunteerism and logistics.
The Russian military is reporting that Russian marines have taken a fortified position from Ukrainian forces in the Kursk border region.

Sumy Oblast:

Russian forces are launching repeated guided air bomb attacks in the region.
New groups of Russian drones are entering from the Kursk region, heading southwest.
Multiple drones are entering and moving south towards Kyiv and Poltava.
A large number of Russian drones have moved into the Sumy oblast towards Pryluky.
A high-speed target is moving towards Sumy.
New drones have been reported moving in the north of Vinnytsia Oblast moving south east, in the center of Cherkasy moving south west, and in the north of Vinnytsia Oblast moving south west.
New drones have been reported moving west in the Lipovets area of Vinnytsia.
Multiple Russian drones are entering and moving south/southwest.
New groups of Russian drones are entering the eastern part of the region, moving south/southwest.
Sumy is under threat of attack from the northwest and northeast.
There is an increased threat from Russian tactical aviation.
Drones continue to move south/southwest.
Drones are active on the border with Poltava and Chernihiv, moving west/southwest.
Russian forces have advanced into the region near the village of Aleksandria.
Russian tactical aviation is active in the northeastern region, posing a risk to front-line areas, and conducting guided air bomb strikes on Sumy.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Russian forces are launching attacks on locations of Ukrainian troop concentrations and drone operators.
A Russian quasi-ballistic missile (9M723-1 Iskander) strike hit a hospital complex, resulting in significant Ukrainian personnel losses and the death of a high-ranking NATO official.
There have been 268 attacks on 10 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, involving 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes.
Damage has been reported to 33 buildings.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has visited a unit that is using HIMARS in the Zaporizhzhia region.
A Ukrainian military unit successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone.
Russian aircraft launched air bombs at Stepnohirsk.
Ukrainian HIMARS units are deployed in Zaporizhzhia.
Air raid alert has been lifted in the Zaporizhzhia region, but a new air raid alert has been issued.
Drone activity continues.
New groups of Russian drones are entering the eastern part of the region from occupied territory, moving north/northeast.

Kherson Oblast:

Drones are moving northwest from the border with Mykolaiv Oblast.
Drones are approaching Kherson from the direction of Zelenovka.
Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.
Drones continue to move southeast.
There has been a reported firefight near the Antonovsky Bridge.
Russian forces have attacked the towns of Mikhailovka and Nikolsky.
Ukrainian forces have repelled 5 Russian assaults on the Kherson axis.

Kharkiv Oblast:

Russian forces are launching guided air bomb attacks.
A "Shahed" drone hit a residential building in Kharkiv, causing an unspecified number of casualties.
Drones are moving west/southwest from the southern part of the region.
Ukrainian air defense systems successfully forced a change in Russian drone attack routes near Kharkiv.
Drones are active near Lozova.
A guided aerial missile has been launched into the region and is moving southwest. The missile has reportedly been neutralized.
A Ukrainian guided aerial missile has been launched through Balakleya, towards Zlatopol.
Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Russian forces have disrupted a Ukrainian attack in the Liptsi area.
Fighting is continuing near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya and Vovchansk on the Kharkiv axis.
A high speed object is traveling towards Poltava from the Kharkiv region.
A high speed object has been detected moving from the Kharkiv region towards the Poltava region.
A ballistic missile has been reported in Slobozhanske, Kharkiv Oblast.
A ballistic missile has been reported in Kharkhiv.

Toretsk/Kramatorsk Direction:

No significant changes reported, but Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing towards other key locations like Scherbynivka and Leonidivka.
Russian forces have reportedly advanced near Dzerzhinsk and gained control of the surrounding slag heaps.
Russian forces have advanced from this area to the northwest.
Fighting is ongoing on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound in Chasov Yar, while Russian forces have been engaging in mop-up activities elsewhere in the area.

Other Fronts:

Russian 16th Special Forces Brigade is conducting operations near the Serebryansk forest, utilizing drones to eliminate Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces are targeting supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve but haven't fully cut them off.
Russian forces are now within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
Russian forces are advancing near Toretsk.
A successful FPV drone strike by the 56th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an M1 Abrams tank in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian tactical aviation is conducting guided air bomb strikes in Donetsk region.
Russian forces liberated Novotroitskoye and Shevchenko near Pokrovsk, and Veselyi Hai south of Kurakhovo, and took full control of the Tsentralnaya mine in Toretsk.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the river Mokrye Yaly with an airstrike.
Russian forces have been using mine-clearing techniques in Pavlovka, near Donetsk, as well as direct tank fire.
Russian forces have destroyed a German-made BMP Marder vehicle near Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces have blown up a bridge leading to Pokrovsk.
A Russian soldier in Shevchenko is reported to have fired at a Ukrainian position in Shevchenko using an RPO-A "Shmel" rocket propelled grenade.
Russian marines have taken a fortified position from Ukrainian forces in the Kursk border region.
A Ukrainian soldier was captured and found with instructions to not surrender, but rather to destroy themselves with grenades and to take out any nearby Russians.
A Ukrainian pick up truck, a Nissan Navara has been captured by Russian forces and is now being used by them.
Ukrainian forces have blown up a bridge leading to Pokrovsk.
A Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a tank was reported near Novotroitskoye.
Russian forces have achieved tactical success in the south-eastern approaches to Krasnoarmeisk.
Russian armored vehicles have achieved tactical gains to the south of Pushkino.
The town of Veselyi Gai is reportedly fully liberated by Russian forces.
Ukrainian forces are being cut off between Uspenovka and Hannevka by Russian troop movements.
Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from portions of Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Annovka, Uspenovka and Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolsky), while maintaining control of Yantarne.
Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Russian forces have taken the village of Zarya.
Russian forces are pushing towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye.
Russian forces have destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle with an FPV drone.
A Ukrainian drone successfully struck a Russian vehicle.
Ukrainian forces have used a surveying instrument to assist in artillery preparation.
Ukrainian forces have made efforts to conceal HIMARS positions.
Russian forces are using tank direct fire to clear mines and Ukrainian firing positions.
Ukrainian forces have used drones to strike Russian tanks in the Novotroitskoye area.
The 331st Regiment, 98th Airborne Division, eliminated a Ukrainian position ("Baba Yaga") on the Chasov Yar front.
Russian forces are using drones to target supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve.
A Russian FPV drone destroyed an Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone in the Kupyansk region.
Russian forces liberated Novotroitskoye and Shevchenko near Pokrovsk, and Veselyi Hai south of Kurakhovo, and took full control of the Tsentralnaya mine in Toretsk.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian platoon near Velyka Novosilka.

Drone Warfare:

Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
Russian drones are targeting Ukrainian positions near Kurakhove.
Ukrainian drones are active across the country.
Numerous drones are moving across Ukraine towards Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Drones are moving from the south towards Kyiv.
Drones are moving from the southeast towards Vinnytsia.
Drones are moving from the northeast towards Zytomyr.
Drones are moving towards Sumy from the northwest and northeast.
Drones are moving towards Kharkiv from the south.
Drones are moving from the north into Sumy Oblast.
Drones are moving from the south into Kyiv.
Drones are moving west and southwest in Cherkasy, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv regions.
Drones are moving northwest in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.
Drones are moving southwest in Chernihiv regions.
Drones are moving south/northwest in Kirovohrad regions.
Drones are moving in the northeastern parts of the Sumy region.
Drones are moving west from Kharkiv into the Donetsk region.
Numerous drones are moving towards Sumy and Pryluky.
Drones are moving from the southeast towards Kyiv.
Drones are approaching Kherson from the direction of Zelenovka.
Drones are moving from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
Drones are moving across the border region of Poltava, Sumy, and Chernihiv, moving west/southwest.
Drones are now moving in a northerly direction through Poltava and Cherkasy.
Drones are moving west through Kirovohrad, and through the south of Vinnytsia.
Drones are moving through the Khmelnytska and Rivne Oblasts.
Drones are active in the Bereznegovate and Berislav districts of Kherson.
A drone has moved from the Khmelnytska Oblast into the Rivne Oblast.
Drones are active over Vinnytsia and Poltava, moving west/southwest, and over Sumy.
A drone has moved from the area of Shostka, Sumy Oblast back towards the Russian border.
Drones have moved towards Zhytomyr from the northwest.
Drones are now moving from the Black Sea towards Tatarbunary.
Drones are active in eastern Kyiv region, moving west.
Drones are active on the border of Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi regions, moving southeast.
Drones are active in western Kirovohrad, moving west.
Drones are active in southern Vinnytsia, moving west.
Drones are active in the northern Black Sea, moving west.
Drones are threatening the Odesa region from the Black Sea.
Several new drones have been launched from the Black Sea and are moving towards Belgorod-Dnistrovskyi in Odesa Oblast.
Several drones are currently active near Zhytomyr, moving from the west.
Several drones are approaching Kyiv from the northeast.
Several drones are active near Vinnytsia, moving from the south.
A large group of drones has launched from the Black Sea, moving towards Tatarbunary.
Drones are approaching Bila Tserkva.
Drones are moving through and toward Belyayevka.
A drone is approaching Borispil.
A drone is approaching Zhytomyr from the west.
A drone is moving to the south of the Vinnytsia region.
Several drones are now moving towards Belgorod-Dnistrovskyi.
A drone is approaching Kyiv from the northeast.
Drones are observed in the Zhytomyr region (near the regional center), in the south of Vinnytsia region, in the south of Odessa, and new drones are entering the Odessa region from the Black Sea.
Drones have struck several targets in the Kursk region.
One drone is approaching Cherkasy.
One drone is approaching the border between Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblast, moving west.
Hostile drones are moving towards Sumy from the northwest, and towards Kharkiv from the northeast.
Drones are moving towards Kyiv from the southeast and Zaporizhzhia from the east and northeast.
Drones are moving south-west in Poltava and Sumy, and west in Chernihiv and Kyiv regions.
High drone activity is reported in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.
Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target.
Ukrainian forces are experiencing an increased threat from FPV drones.
Russian operators of FPV drones are reported to have destroyed an Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
A Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a tank was reported near Novotroitskoye.
The Novoshahtinsk oil refinery in Rostov region was reportedly attacked by drones.
Russian forces have destroyed 10 Ukrainian drones in Rostov and Belgorod regions in the last hour.
Russian forces have reported destroying a Ukrainian armored vehicle with a drone in the Kharkiv region.
The Russian army has presented images of a Ukrainian vehicle they've captured, modified to act as an anti-drone platform.
Russian forces are actively attempting to destroy Ukrainian drones, including Baba Yaga and other systems.
Russian forces have destroyed 6 Ukrainian drones over Rostov Oblast and 4 over Belgorod Oblast.
A Ukrainian UAV has crashed in the center of Kyiv, specifically in the Pecherskyi district.
Another Ukrainian UAV is moving towards the central part of Kyiv.
Multiple drones were detected moving towards Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy and Vinnytsia Oblasts
Russian forces are actively deploying drones in the Sumy Oblast, with large formations detected moving southwest into the region, including some moving toward Pryluky.
A high speed object has been detected moving in the Sumy area.
Ukrainian forces are reporting an increase in FPV drone activity.
Ukrainian forces have used FPV drones on Russian vehicles in Kharkiv region.
Russian forces claim to have destroyed Ukrainian vehicles with drones on the Kharkiv front.
Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
Multiple Ukrainian drones are traveling west from Sumy Oblast.
Multiple Ukrainian drones are traveling southwest from Poltava Oblast.
Ukrainian forces may have used a fiber optic drone to attack a Russian vehicle.
Ukrainian forces may be using modified drones with tail fins and mini-bombs for more effective attacks.
Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
Ukrainian forces are using precision-guided FPV drones.
High speed drones are a threat to Ternopil.
Air raid alerts are in effect over Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continued drone activity.
13 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov and Lipetsk regions.
Russian forces have destroyed 13 Ukrainian drones over Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov, and Lipetsk regions.

Missile Attacks

Multiple Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne, with repeated launch maneuvers in the Caspian Sea.
A high probability of a missile strike between 05:30 and 07:00.
Mobile launch platforms for Kalibr missiles are mobilizing in Novorossiysk.
Ballistic missile threat originates from Crimea.
Ballistic missiles have been reported in Kharkiv and Slobodzhanske (Kharkiv Oblast).
A ballistic missile has been reported in the direction of Kremenchuk.
Rockets launched this morning are reaching their targets in Ukrainian rear areas.

Logistics:

Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine, starting December 16.
The "Metinvest" metallurgical holding has stopped work at the "Shakhtoupravlenie "Pokrovskoe" coal site due to the approach of the front line.
The Russian airbase in Hmeymim, Syria is being targeted by drones, which can "freely" fly over the base.

Military Activity:

Russian forces are using drones to target supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve.
Russian forces are actively attempting to destroy Ukrainian drones.
The Russian military is reportedly using "Kulibin Club" donations to develop new drone, electronic warfare, robotic, and tactical transport technology.
Russian forces have secured positions within Uspenovka.
Russian forces are now within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
Russian forces are advancing near Toretsk.
Ukrainian tactical aviation is conducting guided air bomb strikes in Donetsk region.
Russian forces have reportedly advanced near Dzerzhinsk and gained control of the surrounding slag heaps.
Russian forces are using artillery and drones to target supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve but haven't fully cut them off.
Ukrainian forces are counterattacking to impede Russian advances.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the river Mokrye Yaly with an airstrike.
Russian forces have been using mine-clearing techniques in Pavlovka, near Donetsk, as well as direct tank fire.
Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant and within the city's multi-story buildings.
Russian forces have destroyed a German-made BMP Marder vehicle near Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces are using drones near Kurakhovo.
A Russian soldier in Shevchenko is reported to have fired at a Ukrainian position in Shevchenko using an RPO-A "Shmel" rocket propelled grenade.
A Ukrainian soldier was captured and found with instructions to not surrender, but rather to destroy themselves with grenades and to take out any nearby Russians.
Russian troops have captured the village of Veselyi Gai, south of Kurakhovo.
Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Uspenovka-Annovka-Veselyi Hai sector.
Russian forces have achieved tactical success in the south-eastern approaches to Krasnoarmeisk.
Ukrainian forces are being cut off between Uspenovka and Hannevka by Russian troop movements.
Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from portions of Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Annovka, Uspenovka and Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolsky), while maintaining control of Yantarne.
Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Russian forces have taken the village of Zarya.
Russian forces are pushing towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye.
Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Uspenovka-Annovka-Veselyi Hai sector.
Ukrainian forces are reporting an increase in FPV drone activity.

Other Conflicts:

Israeli forces are preparing for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities after destroying most of Syria's air defense capabilities.
Israel continues to expand its occupied zone in the Golan Heights.
"Green" militant forces are expected to attempt to seize the western bank of the Euphrates River from Kurdish forces in Syria.
The US destroyed a bridge in Deir ez-Zor to halt the advance of these forces, though tensions remain.
Mass demonstrations against the SDF were reported in Raqqa and Hasaka cities.
A diplomatic meeting was held between the Turkish Foreign Minister and a French-Kurdish-US delegation in Damascus.
Israeli ground forces are occupying more areas near the UNDOF buffer zone.
Israeli forces conducted an airstrike on the Mezzeh airport near Damascus.
The US has recommended that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) not seize complete control of Syria.
Mohammed Alloush, a prominent Syrian opposition figure, has stated Syria's desire for cooperation with all nations based on non-interference, and that the Syrian people would decide on the future of US military presence in Syria. He further stated that the Syrian people will not accept an Islamic state.
Alloush also stated that the new Syrian government will consider the issue of Russian military bases in light of the interests of the Syrian people and Russia.
Russia has stated it is in contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria and also with Israel about the situation in Syria.
Increased tensions are reported in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israeli forces conducted strikes in the Gaza Strip, killing 40 and injuring over 100.
IDF forces are operating in Beit Lahia, Jabalia, and Rafah.
An attack on a bus south of Jerusalem killed a child and injured others.
Hezbollah and Israel continue to observe a ceasefire.
Russia stated it will assist any Russian citizens who want to leave Syria.
A group of Russian-speaking fighters in Syria stated they will attack Alawite civilians.
Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Syria, but Russia stated it is close to an agreement with new Syrian leaders to maintain its military bases.
The US has reported that they have been in contact with Turkish government officials regarding the situation in Syria.

Casualties:

One civilian was injured in Belgorod due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
A "Shahed" drone hit a residential building in Kharkiv resulting in an unspecified number of casualties.
The death toll from the Zaporizhzhia hospital attack has risen to nine.
Over 20 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly killed near Storozheve and Neskuchne.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian platoon near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces captured five Ukrainian soldiers near Velyka Novosilka, and additional soldiers in other regions of Ukraine.
At least 11 people were killed in Zaporizhzhia on December 10th, and 22 more injured.
Over 40 Palestinians were killed and over 100 injured in Israeli attacks in Gaza in the past day.
A member of a self-defense force was killed in a drone attack in the Terebrensky region of the Belgorod oblast.
Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region were stated to be over 200 soldiers, two armored fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, and three mortars.
One civilian was killed by a drone attack in Belgorod.
A member of a self-defense force was killed in a drone attack in the Terebrensky region of the Belgorod oblast.
A Ukrainian military vehicle was destroyed in the Oktyabrsky region of Belgorod.

Political and Geopolitical:

The US has allocated a $500 million aid package to Ukraine including HIMARS munitions, anti-tank weapons, and anti-drone systems.
Cuba and Bolivia may join BRICS as partner countries in 2025.
The outgoing Biden administration may increase sanctions on Russian oil exports.
The US House of Representatives has approved a 2025 defense budget without a lend-lease agreement with Ukraine.
A Trump administration may reduce US aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine may face tension with a Trump administration due to perceived support for the Democratic party in the pre-election period.
The US has removed a lend-lease agreement to Ukraine from its 2025 defense budget.
Xi Jinping is not expected to attend the inauguration of Donald Trump.
The US State Department approved a $266 million package for servicing Ukrainian F-16s.
The Canadian Parliament approved a ~$600 million direct military aid package for Ukraine, with additional funding for financial support and demining/cybersecurity.
The EU has stated its desire to be involved in peace talks regarding the Ukrainian conflict.
The US opposes the use of US-made missiles by the Ukrainian military inside Russia.
Poland stated it will not send troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.
Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area on January 1st, 2025.
Russia and India have signed a major oil deal.
Russia is publicly stating it is in contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, and working with them to maintain Russian military bases.
The Russian government is offering support to any Russian citizens who would like to leave Syria.
The head of Turkish intelligence is in Damascus.
Israel is preparing for attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, believing that the Iranian proxies have weakened and the Assad regime has fallen.
Donald Trump has suggested that European troops should be used as a peacekeeping force in the region and does not support Ukraine's entry into NATO.
The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated that he would like to see a free Iran and mentioned that billions of dollars that Iran spent on conflicts in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon had essentially been destroyed.
The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, stated that there are no negotiations with the Russian government, and stated that Ukraine did not believe it had the capability to participate in negotiations as it currently does not possess adequate weapons, nor does it believe its safety is guaranteed if Russia returns in a few years.
A Berlin Declaration was signed by six European countries and the EU, affirming support for Ukraine joining both the EU and NATO, and stating that peace must be based on the Ukrainian peace formula.
The US will announce another aid package for Ukraine today, which will include "additional air defense systems, artillery, drones, and armored vehicles." The aid package is approximately $800 million.
The opposition in Georgia has stated that they do not recognize the election results for president.
Trump is suggesting that Europe deploy peacekeeping forces in Ukraine to establish a ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has visited a unit that is using HIMARS in the Zaporizhzhia region.
France will continue to provide Ukraine with assistance.
The US State Department has imposed visa restrictions on officials and security forces from Georgia in response to the undermining of democracy.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

Kurakhovo/Pokrovsk Axis: The situation is critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces advancing through the central parts of Kurakhovo, and reportedly consolidating control in the south of Kurakhovo, and the villages of Uspenovka, Veselyi Hai, and Annovka are at high risk of being encircled. There is intense fighting and significant Russian advances, putting high pressure on supply lines and defensive positions. The Russian attacks are expanding along the southern approach to Krasnoarmeisk and towards Kurakhove, and are causing a collapse of the Ukrainian defenses in the area.
Kursk/Sumy Border: Heavy fighting continues with Ukrainian counterattacks near Novoivanovka and intense drone activity. The Russian forces are advancing in these areas, attempting to gain a strong foothold on the border. The presence of North Korean troops on the front is new information, and suggests that Russia is willing to include foreign fighters.
Drone Warfare: Drone warfare has significantly intensified, with increased drone activity from both sides, targeting critical infrastructure and personnel. This activity also involves new drone types and technologies, as well as the use of drone swarms. Russian drones are now moving through the Black Sea in the Odesa region.
Missile Attacks: The threat of a major missile attack is significantly increased, with Tu-95MS bombers conducting repeated launch maneuvers, and a simultaneous mobilization of Black Sea Fleet missiles, and ballistic missile launches from Crimea.
Internal Security: There are reports of low morale, food poisoning and illnesses within Ukrainian forces. There are also reports of fraudulent enlistment in the Russian military.

Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

Strengthen Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk Defenses: Prioritize reinforcing defenses around Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk, given the critical situation. Reassess defensive lines in those areas where Russian forces have made recent advances. Allocate resources to counter the encirclement attempts.
Enhance Counter-Drone Operations: Implement more effective counter-drone measures, considering the high rate of drone activity across the country. Improve detection and interception capabilities.
Prepare for Missile Attacks: Activate all missile defense systems to counter the increasing missile threat. Implement a robust early warning system for civilians.
Fortify Border Regions: Strengthen defenses in the Kursk and Sumy regions. Monitor Russian troop movements and drone activity in the region. Focus defensive efforts to repel incursions, particularly in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts. Evaluate and prioritize defense in the Sumy region, given the recent advance and movement of enemy drones. Create fortified positions and consider a remote mining program to make Russian advances more difficult. Reassess the threat level posed by Russian forces in the Kursk region.
Address Troop Morale and Logistics: Implement strategies to boost troop morale, address supply chain issues, and investigate cases of corruption and fraudulent contracts. Prioritize resupply of the areas around Pokrovsk, as well as the troops in the Kursk and Sumy region.
Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Reinforce the protection of key civilian infrastructure and population centers, given the ongoing attacks. Ensure reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Nikopol and the Kursk region.
Continue International Collaboration: Work closely with international partners to acquire more advanced defensive systems and additional support for Ukraine. Monitor India’s oil supply deal with Russia and take steps to make the agreement more difficult or more expensive for Russia.
Monitor the Situation in Syria: Analyze the Syrian situation for potential impacts on regional stability. Monitor the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, and their potential influence in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Monitor the activity of ISIS and Syrian rebel forces, and maintain contact with international partners to analyze and respond to the conflict in Syria.
Analyze the Implications of New Technologies: Pay special attention to new drone and cyber warfare technologies that are being deployed by both sides, and implement defenses for these systems.
Address Internal Stability: Monitor internal dissent and any acts of sabotage, corruption and other internal issues that are affecting military efficiency. Implement countermeasures to propaganda that is designed to lower morale, and emphasize the need to support the military effort. Address reports of low morale and illness among the troops, and ensure all personnel are adequately supported.

Situation Report

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 13, 2024 (04:45:05 UTC)