Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 13, 2024 (00:15:05 UTC)
Eastern Ukraine:
Russian forces have secured positions in Uspenovka and are preparing for further operations in Uspenovka and Annovka.
Drone warfare continues with Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian strongpoints near Kurakhove.
Russian forces are continuing to advance and entrench in Uspenovka, placing Ukrainian forces in the area at high risk of encirclement.
Kursk Region:
A military court in Russia has begun proceedings against Ukrainian soldiers captured in the region.
There is an increased air threat, including drones, over the Kursk region.
A new Russian sniper training center will begin construction in January 2025 in Primorye.
A Russian contract soldier was sent to the front despite a severe leg injury.
A Ukrainian drone strike destroyed a Russian "UAZ" vehicle ("Buhanka") in Kursk Oblast, resulting in casualties.
Sumy Oblast:
Russian forces are launching repeated guided air bomb attacks in the region.
Multiple Russian drones are entering and moving south/southwest.
New groups of Russian drones are entering the eastern part of the region, moving south/southwest.
Sumy is under threat of attack from the northwest.
There is an increased threat from Russian tactical aviation.
Drones continue to move south/southwest.
Drones are active on the border with Poltava and Chernihiv, moving west/southwest.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Drone activity continues.
New groups of Russian drones are entering the eastern part of the region from occupied territory, moving north/northeast.
Kherson Oblast:
Drones are moving northwest from the border with Mykolaiv Oblast.
Drones are approaching Kherson from the direction of Zelenovka.
Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.
Drones continue to move southeast.
Kharkiv Oblast:
Russian forces are launching guided air bomb attacks.
Drones are moving west/southwest from the southern part of the region.
Ukrainian air defense systems successfully forced a change in the Russian drone attack routes near Kharkiv.
Drones are active near Lozova.
Toretsk/Kramatorsk Direction:
No significant changes reported.
Other Fronts:
Russian 16th Special Forces Brigade is conducting operations near the Serebryansk forest, utilizing drones to eliminate Ukrainian forces.
A Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian BTR-4 armored personnel carrier near Kharkiv.
Russian drones are targeting Ukrainian pick-up trucks and manpower with drone-delivered munitions in the Serebryansky forest.
There is increased Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern front.
Russian forces are using BM-21 "Grad" rocket systems along the Dnieper River.
Drone Warfare:
Russian drones are targeting Ukrainian positions near Kurakhove.
Ukrainian drones are active across the country.
Numerous drones are moving across Ukraine towards Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Drones are moving from the south towards Kyiv.
Drones are moving from the southeast towards Vinnytsia.
Drones are moving from the northeast towards Zytomyr.
Drones are moving towards Sumy from the northwest.
Drones are moving towards Kharkiv from the south.
Drones are moving from the north into Sumy Oblast.
Drones are moving from the south into Kyiv.
Drones are moving west and southwest in Cherkasy, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv regions.
Drones are moving northwest in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.
Drones are moving southwest in Chernihiv regions.
Drones are moving south/northwest in Kirovohrad regions.
Drones are moving in the northeastern parts of the Sumy region.
Drones are moving west from Kharkiv into the Donetsk region.
Numerous drones are moving towards Sumy and Pryluky.
Drones are moving from the southeast towards Kyiv.
Drones are approaching Kherson from the direction of Zelenovka.
Drones are moving from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
Drones are moving across the border region of Poltava, Sumy, and Chernihiv, moving west/southwest.
Drones are now moving in a northerly direction through Poltava and Cherkasy.
Drones are moving west through Kirovohrad, and through the south of Vinnytsia.
Logistics:
Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine, starting December 16.
Military Activity:
Russian forces are using drones to target supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve.
Russian forces are actively attempting to destroy Ukrainian drones.
The Russian military is reportedly using "Kulibin Club" donations to develop new drone, electronic warfare, robotic, and tactical transport technology.
Russian forces have secured positions within Uspenovka.
Other Conflicts:
Israeli forces are preparing for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities after destroying most of Syria's air defense capabilities.
Israel continues to expand its occupied zone in the Golan Heights.
"Green" militant forces are expected to attempt to seize the western bank of the Euphrates River from Kurdish forces in Syria.
The US destroyed a bridge in Deir ez-Zor to halt the advance of these forces, though tensions remain.
Mass demonstrations against the SDF were reported in Raqqa and Hasaka cities.
A diplomatic meeting was held between the Turkish Foreign Minister and a French-Kurdish-US delegation in Damascus.
Israeli ground forces are occupying more areas near the UNDOF buffer zone.
Israeli forces conducted an airstrike on the Mezzeh airport near Damascus.
Casualties:
One civilian was injured in Belgorod due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
Political and Geopolitical:
The US has allocated a $500 million aid package to Ukraine including HIMARS munitions, anti-tank weapons, and anti-drone systems.
Cuba and Bolivia may join BRICS as partner countries in 2025.
The outgoing Biden administration may increase sanctions on Russian oil exports.
The US House of Representatives has approved a 2025 defense budget without a lend-lease agreement with Ukraine.
A Trump administration may reduce US aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine may face tension with a Trump administration due to perceived support for the Democratic party in the pre-election period.
The US has removed a lend-lease agreement to Ukraine from its 2025 defense budget.
Internal Security:
The entire Lipetsk Oblast has been put under a state of air alert.
Lipetsk, Lipetsk MO, Lebedyansky, and Dankovsky districts are under a red level threat of drone attacks.
The city of Yelets, Yelets, and Krasninsky districts are under red level threat of drone attacks.
The Stanovlyansky district is under red level threat of drone attacks.
Drivers of heavy trucks will face significantly increased fines for entering urban areas without permission in Russia.
Technological Warfare:
Russian forces are actively deploying drones in the Sumy Oblast, with large formations detected moving southwest into the region.
Russian forces are using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian equipment.
A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station.
Military Leadership Changes:
The head of Rosgvardia, Viktor Zolotov, has been awarded the Hero of Russia star.
Other:
The body of the second individual who was buried under rubble at a mine in Yakutia has been found.
Strategic Operations:
Russian forces have secured positions in Uspenovka, with Ukrainian forces under high threat of encirclement.
Hostile drone activity is increasing across Ukraine, including the regions surrounding Kyiv and other major population centers.
Russian 14th and 16th Special Forces Brigades conducted drone operations targeting vehicles, depots and manpower near the Sukhie Yaly River and Serebryansk forest.
Russian forces are advancing in the Sumy region, likely due to difficulty crossing the Psiol River in another area.
Drone Activity:
A large number of drones are currently active across Ukraine, moving towards or over Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
A large number of hostile drones are approaching or over Sumy, with some approaching the city of Pryluky in that region.
New groups of drones are entering Sumy from the north and northeast, and also approaching Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Starokostiantyniv from other directions.
Drones are moving towards Kyiv from the northwest.
Drones are active near Kherson, moving to the left bank.
Drones are active over Vinnytsia, moving west.
Key Changes:
Russian forces have secured positions within Uspenovka.
Drone activity continues to be extremely high across most of Ukraine, with major cities under threat.
New groups of Russian drones are approaching from multiple directions.
Russian forces are continuing to launch attacks using guided air bombs in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
The Russian military is reportedly using "Kulibin Club" donations to develop new military technologies.
The Russian military is focusing on the destruction of Ukrainian drones.
Lipetsk and surrounding regions are under a state of air alert with areas under a red level of drone attack.
The Israeli military is preparing for an attack on Iran's nuclear sites.
The US government may be decreasing aid to Ukraine and increasing sanctions against Russia.
The US has allocated a $500 million aid package to Ukraine.
Ukraine may face tension with a Trump administration.
Russian tactical aviation is active on the northeastern front.
A new Russian sniper training center will be built in Primorye in January 2025.
Drones are increasingly active over the entire region, including major population centers.
Drivers of heavy trucks will face increased fines for entering urban areas without permission in Russia.
Significant Changes from Previous Reports:
Increased drone activity over multiple Ukrainian oblasts.
Increased threat from Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern front.
Russia is planning to open a new training center for snipers in Primorye.
US aid to Ukraine may decrease, depending on the result of the next presidential elections.
Increased tensions in Syria with Israel and Turkish forces operating in the region.
Increased fines for heavy truck drivers entering urban areas in Russia.
Summary Recommendations for Command:
Prioritize the development of counter drone measures as drone activity is increasing throughout Ukraine.
Prepare for potential attacks and troop movements in the Sumy region as they are facing new threats and attacks from Russia.
Monitor the political situation in the US as it may impact ongoing funding efforts.
Consider options in Syria as the region is becoming increasingly unstable.
Address the potential dangers posed by Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern front.
Implement measures to safeguard supply routes and logistics, especially in light of increased drone activity.
Evaluate the effectiveness of current intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance efforts and enhance accordingly.
Monitor ongoing Russian military activity and evaluate the implications for military strategy.
Continue efforts to bolster force morale and combat effectiveness.
Continue the development of a counter-information campaign to combat disinformation.
Monitor the situation in Lipetsk and surrounding areas due to elevated drone threat.
Assess the impact of the announced increase in fines for heavy truck drivers and ensure logistical routes remain efficient.
These updates highlight the dynamic and complex nature of the ongoing military situation, demanding constant vigilance and adaptability.
