Sitrep 2024-12-12 16:03:24

Okay, here's the updated situation analysis:

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 12, 2024 (15:47:05 UTC)

Eastern Ukraine: Heavy fighting persists near Novotroitskoye and Toretsk. Ukrainian forces report Russian infiltration into Pokrovsk. Russian forces control Zarya and have advanced near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka, and Veselyi Hai. Russian forces also made gains near Scherbynivka and Leonidivka, and are consolidating control in Toretsk.

Kursk Region: Russian forces have taken Novoiivanovka, while Ukrainian forces report Russian counterattacks near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo. Over 200 Ukrainian troops were killed in the past 24 hours. Russian forces have reportedly liberated Daryino, and continue to advance in the Sudzha district, particularly near Novoivanovka, the forests near Mala Loknya, Sverdlikovo and Martynovka. Ukrainian forces report repelling 22 Russian assaults. There are reports of a Ukrainian unit surrendering.

Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have advanced near Aleksandria and Esman, with artillery strikes on a railway station. New groups of Russian drones are moving toward Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy Oblast. New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest. Russian forces are reportedly advancing into Sumy Oblast, forcing a Ukrainian retreat.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Rolling blackouts and attacks on energy infrastructure continue. A hospital was hit by a Russian missile, and the death toll has risen to 6, with 22 injured. IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted. The Ukrainian military reports high numbers of combat engagements in the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions. Fighting remains "exceptionally harsh," with Russian forces pushing south from Pokrovsk. Fights near Shevchenko, Pischane, Novotroyitske, Novooleksiyivka, Novyy Trud, Dachenske, Lysivka, Myrolubivka, Promin and Pokrovsk have been reported. Ukrainian forces report sustaining 203 attacks in the last two days in the region. Russian advances continue south of Kurakhove near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Dachenske, Zoria, Kurakhove, Dachne, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hanivka, Antonivka and Uspenivka. Russian forces have taken an outpost near Uspenovka. New information indicates a Russian advance from Starie Terny towards Dachnoe, which impacts the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway and the western exit from Kurakhovo. Ukrainian forces report that all supply routes to Kurakhovo are under Russian fire or control. A group of Russian forces remains blocked within the Kurakhovo Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are still attempting to break out. 268 attacks were launched on 10 settlements in the region in the last 24 hours, including 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes. A Russian strike on Stepnohirsk injured 3 rescuers. A program is in place for free cancer screening for internally displaced peoples. A meeting of top leadership was held to discuss the air defense of that region.

Kherson Oblast: Russian forces are targeting settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper river, including the area of Novaya Kahovka, where a gas pipeline and a high voltage line were damaged. Ukrainian forces report repelling 5 Russian assaults on the Kherson axis. Russian forces reportedly targeted Ukrainian troops and equipment near Mikhailovka and Nikolsky. Ukrainian artillery is targeting Russian positions on the right bank of the Dnieper with Grad rockets. There are multiple reports of civilian casualties, including a 67-year old man killed by a drone strike, and a 54-year old man and a 51-year old woman injured from strikes on Kherson.

Toretsk/Kramatorsk Direction: Russian air attacks are targeting Toretsk, and fighting reported near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.

Other Fronts: Russian air attacks target Krymske, Petrivka, Komar, Rozlyv and Vremivka of Donetsk region. Fighting continues near Zapadne, Pischane, Loziv and Zahryzove in the Kupyansk area. Fighting reported near Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelubivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka, Kopanka and Serebryanskyi forest in the Lyman axis. Fighting reported near Verkhnokamyanske in the Sieversk axis. Fighting reported near Trudove, Kostyantynopolske, Sukhykh Yaliv, Blahodatne and Novodarivka in the Vremivka axis. Fighting reported near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv axis. There has been a reported Russian advance in the direction of Novotroitskoye.

Drone Warfare: Drone usage is escalating on both sides, with Ukrainian drones targeting Russian facilities inside Russia. Russia is using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian equipment, and Zala Lancets to shoot down Ukrainian drones. Russia has deployed the Molniya 2.0 drone, resistant to REB. Ukrainian forces have shot down a Russian Supercam drone. There have also been reports of new drones moving south in northern Chernihiv Oblast, and from Sumy Oblast toward Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts. Ukrainian drones have been spotted targeting Russian military facilities in Russian territory. There is an increased presence of enemy drones in Sumy, Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts. New groups of enemy drones are moving south in northern Chernihiv Oblast and west/southwest in central Sumy Oblast. Russian drones are now also moving toward Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. A drone attack on a police special forces barracks in Grozny resulted in minor injuries to 4 guards. Chechen leader Kadyrov blames Ukraine. Multiple groups of enemy drones are entering the Sumy region from the Kursk Oblast, moving in a west/southwest direction. An FPV drone was used by Russia to destroy a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station, while another Ukrainian electronic warfare station was also targeted. Ukrainian forces have destroyed multiple Russian vehicles and troop positions with drones. A new threat of drone activity has emerged in Cherkasy Oblast, with Russian drones moving in a westward direction.

Logistics: Supply lines in contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are being targeted with Ukrainian drones and missiles. Russia is also reportedly moving troops and equipment by air in the Kharkiv region using Mi-26 helicopters to reinforce forces. Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian forces and equipment. Russian forces are reported to be using civilian vehicles to disguise themselves. Russia is facing difficulties with logistics, illustrated by soldiers having to manually create bunkers using their own funds. Russian state media is stating there is an increasing number of requests from the public about social assistance, particularly around housing and transportation.

Military Activity: There are reports of intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Ukrainian forces report intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Russian forces have taken Zolote and are reported to have made advances near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka, and near Veselyi Hai. The Ukrainian military is also actively utilizing anti-tank guided missiles. The Ukrainian military is testing new mobilization strategies. A Ukrainian artillery unit set a new record for long-range strikes. Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs on the Donetsk and Kharkiv axes. One Russian FPV operator destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station, while other operators are actively being targeted and destroyed.

Other Conflicts: A political crisis has escalated in Jubaland, Somalia. Ethiopian forces are assisting various groups within the country. Syrian rebel groups are releasing images of Russian equipment and vehicles on the road but have orders not to engage. Infighting and instability persist in Syria. Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Syria but naval assets remain. Russia is nearing an agreement with the new Syrian leadership to retain their two military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. Russian military from the furthest regions of Syria is being transferred to bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, and are reportedly looting and drinking while waiting for evacuation. 4-5 military transport planes are flying daily between Khmeimim and Russian airfields. Ships are still moving military equipment from Syria to the base in Tartus.

Casualties: More than 200 Ukrainian troops were reportedly killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours. A Ukrainian woman was accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender. Three rescuers have been injured in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian forces report that Russian losses near Pokrovsk are high, with an average of 400 per day in December. Three Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly died due to fraudulently signed contracts. There are now 3 injured people after the attack on Stepnohirsk. There are reports of at least one Ukrainian civilian dead and multiple injuries resulting from Russian strikes on the Kherson region. The Ukrainian military reports that it has destroyed a Russian armored vehicle and personnel in the Kursk region. Ukrainian artillery has set a new record for long-range strikes.

Political and Geopolitical:

G7 nations are pushing for a secular government in Syria.
The US Congress is requesting an assessment on reduced support for Ukraine and the threat of aggression from China, Iran, and North Korea.
Macron is in Warsaw discussing peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, with Poland stating it will not send troops.
Russia is seeking prisoner exchanges and signaling a willingness to negotiate based on preconditions Ukraine won't agree to. Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region. Russia is claiming that it is willing to return to peace talks if Ukraine accepts Russia's terms. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has stated that Bashar al-Assad is currently in Russia. Lavrov and Siarto have discussed how Ukraine has refused offers of a temporary ceasefire and prisoner exchanges. Medvedev stated that Russia is open to resuming negotiations with Ukraine, if Ukraine acknowledges current geopolitical realities.
NATO is concerned about the use of Oreshnik missiles, and Belarus is deploying the "Kulisas" communication system. NATO's Secretary General stated that military expenses within NATO countries need to exceed 3% and called for pension and welfare cuts to afford more weapons. NATO's Secretary General stated that Russia is rebuilding its forces faster than anticipated, although they don't think it will lead to a direct attack from Russia.
The Biden administration is considering stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports, while Canada has approved a ~$600 million military aid package for Ukraine. The US State Department has approved a potential sale of F-16 equipment and maintenance to Kyiv. The Ukrainian president has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address the air defense of that region. The Ukrainian president has also addressed Ukrainian soldiers emphasizing the importance of training and drones.
Trump opposes US-made long-range missile strikes into Russia, citing escalation. Trump stated that if Ukraine refuses negotiations with Russia, he will cut off support.
Syria remains volatile with reports of executions, terrorism, large-scale refugee movements, and ISIS gaining power. Russia has begun withdrawing from Syria, but has also stated it may be keeping its two military bases. A meeting is taking place between the Syrian government and Russian authorities regarding these bases.
Lukashenko has stated that Belarus is planning to use Oreshnik missiles. Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads.
Turkey has denied meeting with Syrian officials.
Iran has claimed they warned Syria three months prior about Israeli attacks.
The EU has lost over 1.5 trillion Euros due to sanctions against Russia.
A Slovakian politician has stated that Western powers may attempt to divide Ukraine, similarly to Czechoslovakia in 1938, and will not be invited to join NATO after the defeat. A Russian politician, Galuzin, has stated that a pact between Russia and North Korea will force the US to consider the destructive consequences if it attacks either country.
Russia's Foreign Minister, Lavrov, has stated that Ukraine rejected a ceasefire deal brokered by Hungary.
The Russian government has stated that it has fully modernized its strategic nuclear arsenal.
A Russian official stated that Russia may resume peace talks if Ukraine accepts their current geopolitical reality, and a separate report indicates Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.

Internal Security:

There are increasing reports of corruption and internal issues, low morale, and insufficient support within the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian forces are lacking engineering personnel and experiencing friendly fire incidents. 30 separate investigations into embezzlement are currently active. The Ukrainian military is now implementing a policy of basic military training within the brigades. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy formally introduced the new commander of the Support Forces, General-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi. Conscription rates in Ukraine have dropped from 35,000 to 20,000 a month, and the US is pushing for this to be lowered to 18 years of age. A BBC report indicates that Ukraine’s conscription efforts are not keeping up with losses.
Russia is implementing new fines for public intoxication and traffic offenses, and is experiencing low morale within their ranks. Russia has arrested 125 people for corruption in the defense industry and 11 for issues related to defense orders. A military court in Russia has begun proceedings against Ukrainian soldiers who infiltrated Kursk Oblast. The court extended the pre-trial detention of seven soldiers for six months. There have been multiple reports of Russian troops using pigs to attempt to reveal Ukrainian firing positions. A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. There are increasing reports of corruption in the Russian military as well as low morale. Russian state media received over 500,000 requests for Putin’s direct-line call, largely pertaining to transport, housing, medical care, and social benefits. Russia is implementing a recruiting campaign in Crimea for personnel aged between 18 and 40.
The Ukrainian government is implementing changes to restrictions on credit card transfers, and has received $454 million in healthcare funding. There are increasing protests against conscription. A Ukrainian supporter of the Shariy Party was arrested for plotting to overthrow the government, and a group of propagandists from outside of Ukraine were also uncovered. A wave of fake reports of mine placement have been sent to various locations in Ukraine. There have been multiple reports of phishing sites used to steal money from citizens.
Russia is offering free IT training and claims its economy is growing by 3.9%.
A German citizen with Russian citizenship was arrested for planning to sabotage railway tracks. The FSB announced the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns. Some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians residing far from the front lines. There are increasing reports of criminal activity such as stealing from delivery depots. There are also reports of a soldier returning from the SMO in Russia being arrested for a supposed rape.
A Ukrainian woman has been accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender.
A soldier returning from the SMO in Russia has been arrested for a supposed rape.

Technological Warfare: Drone warfare continues to escalate, with both sides testing new drones and anti-drone technology. Russia may be capable of producing 25 Oreshnik long-range ballistic missiles per month. Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas." Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone. Russian forces are using Zala Lancet drones to shoot down Ukrainian drones. A new Ukrainian missile, “Ruta” has been successfully tested.

A new US drone has been tested in Ukraine, called the V-Bat.
The Ukrainian military is using drones to target Russian forces and equipment.
A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station.
The Ukrainian military has been focusing on improving its counter drone capabilities.

Military Leadership Changes: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy formally introduced the new commander of the Support Forces, General-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi. Zelenskyy has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address the air defense of that region. The Ukrainian military is now implementing a policy of basic military training within the brigades. There have been numerous reports of Ukrainian military leadership being criticized for incompetence. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that their forces are preparing for all possible scenarios for the enemy’s actions.

Other:

Xi Jinping reiterated China's commitment to de-escalation principles and called for a resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
There are increasing reports of internal corruption and are trying to develop the IT industry.
Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region. The Russian military may be engaging in peace talks while simultaneously conducting military operations.
Syrian Islamists have reportedly taken control of Deir ez-Zor.
IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted by drone strikes.
A Ukrainian artillery unit has set a new record for long-range strikes in active combat.
The Russian government may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.
Trump said that Zelenskyy's strikes into Russia were a mistake.
A new Russian law is targeting those who spread fake information about the Russian army, threatening them with being placed on the list of terrorists and extremists. A Russian media channel, Ruptly, is offering their services as a news provider. A new Russian media campaign is stating that Ukrainians are being forcibly returned from Europe and sent to the front lines. A Russian Telegram channel posted a meme reinforcing the idea that Ukrainian soldiers do not want to fight.
Ukrainian authorities have stated that Russian forces are using new methods of locating Ukrainian forces and new types of long range guided missiles.
A Russian oil company, Rosneft, has signed a 10-year agreement with an Indian company to supply them with oil. Reuters states that this could generate 13 billion USD in revenue for Russia annually.
Russia is reporting that it has fully updated its naval nuclear forces, and that those forces are a guarantee of safety on a global scale. Russia is claiming that its land-based nuclear forces are its primary deterrence, rather than naval forces, as is common in western countries.
A Russian investigative committee has charged two captured Ukrainian soldiers with being terrorists and has stated they will face long prison sentences.
A Russian media channel is claiming that a Russian oil company, Rosneft, has signed a 10-year agreement to supply India with 500,000 barrels of oil daily.
The head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Bortnikov, has stated that they are now actively recruiting personnel between 18 and 40 for border operations.
NATO's Secretary General has stated that Russia is rebuilding its forces faster than anticipated.
A new report indicates that NATO's Secretary General has called for European countries to cut their social welfare spending in favor of military spending.
There are reports that a new round of fake reports of mine placement have been sent to locations across Ukraine.
There are reports of an increasing amount of public unrest as conscription efforts are continuing to be rolled out across Ukraine.
The head of the Ukrainian Support Forces met with the Ukrainian President and discussed the importance of personnel, technology, and management.
Zelenskyy held a meeting with military leadership to discuss air defense and other security concerns in the Zaporizhzhia region.
The Ukrainian government is now pushing for brigades to have more authority over resource allocation.
The Ukrainian president has visited the frontlines in Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian forces report high numbers of combat engagements in the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions.
Russia is now reported to be targeting civilian populations in Kherson with drone strikes.
Ukraine has begun evacuating civilians from Malaya Tokmachka due to intense fighting.

Casualties:

Russian forces claimed more than 200 Ukrainian troop losses in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian forces also claim large losses of Russian equipment. Two rescuers have been injured in Zaporizhzhia, and this has now been updated to three rescuers injured in the region.
More than 200 Ukrainian troops were reportedly killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours. A Ukrainian artillery unit has set a new record for long-range strikes in active combat. A Ukrainian soldier has stated that some soldiers have been ordered to commit suicide rather than be captured, and there are claims that the Ukrainian military are lacking engineering personnel and suffering from friendly fire incidents.
Three Ukrainian conscripts have reportedly died due to false contracts.
The Ukrainian military has stated Russian loses are high around Pokrovsk with an average of 400 casualties per day in December.
Russian drone strikes on Kherson have led to a civilian fatality, as well as multiple injuries.

Strategic Operations: Ukrainian forces are testing new mobilization strategies. Ukrainian forces report intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Military Operations: Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Kursk region, and advances into Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively to target Russian equipment. Russian forces are utilizing unconventional techniques such as using pigs to reveal firing positions. The Ukrainian forces have started a training program within the brigades. The Ukrainian military is focusing on drones and electronic countermeasures for both reconnaissance and targeted attacks. Ukrainian forces remotely laid mines in the LNR, using cassette munitions and German anti-tank mines. Russian forces have made advances in Sumy Oblast and are consolidating control over Toretsk.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

The area around Novotroitskoye and Toretsk remains contested with heavy fighting reported. The situation is dynamic with attacks and counterattacks. The situation in and around Toretsk remains highly contested.
Heavy drone use by both sides in the Kursk and Sumy Oblasts suggests heavy fighting is ongoing. The Russian advances near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo show a continued offensive pressure. There has also been a Russian advance into Sumy Oblast. There is an increase in the number of enemy drones moving into the Sumy region. New groups of Russian drones are now targeting areas in Cherkassy as well as areas in Sumy, Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts.
The use of drones continues to be a dominant factor, with both sides using them for surveillance, strikes, and logistics. New drones and counter-drone technology are being tested by both sides.
Logistical routes in all contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are also being targeted by drones and missiles.
Propaganda and disinformation continue, with both sides attempting to influence public opinion.
Instability appears to be growing within both Russia and Ukraine, leading to internal issues and challenges.
The situation in Syria is causing increased violence and instability.
IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted in the region of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant.
Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted Russian convoys on main thoroughfares.
The Ukrainian military command is being criticized for incompetence and poor decisions.
The Russian military has released information about Russian forces taking the settlements of Zarya and Sontsivka.
The Ukrainian military has stated that the area around Pokrovsk is still under very intense fighting, and their troops are sustaining very heavy casualties. The front line seems to be under pressure from Russian forces advancing near Starie Terny towards Dachnoe, which impacts the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway. The Ukrainian military has stated that a group of Russian forces is currently trapped inside a power plant near Kurakhovo, and their supply lines have been cut.
Russian forces have made significant advances in and around the town of Kurakhovo.
The Russian military is using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions, including electronic warfare stations.
Ukrainian forces are remotely placing anti-tank mines in Russian controlled regions.
Ukrainian forces are utilizing IMP (improvised military positions) left behind by the Russian military.
The Russian military has made advancements near Novotroitskoye.
The Russian military has been conducting operations in and around the villages of Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug, and are reportedly pushing toward the town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast.
The Ukrainian military has reported 138 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, focused on the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions.
The Ukrainian military has released information about its troops engaging with, and killing, elements of the Russian VDV (Airborne) forces.

Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

Reinforce defensive positions, especially around Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, and along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Reassess defensive lines in those areas where Russian forces have made recent advances.
Continue to implement enhanced counter-drone measures and technologies, and research new counter-drone methods. Increase counter-intelligence operations to locate hidden personnel and drone operators. Implement and maintain strategies to improve troop morale and address any communication and supply chain issues. Continue investigating any claims of corruption and any reported orders to commit suicide rather than be captured.
Focus operations on the border between Russia and Ukraine and implement strategies to protect against incursions, especially in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts. Evaluate and prioritize defense in the Sumy region, given the recent advance and movement of enemy drones.
Secure supply lines with extra patrols and defenses, especially major transport arteries leading to key locations.
Continue to identify and target financial networks that support illicit military operations.
Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat disinformation narratives, and monitor propaganda and misinformation on communications platforms like Telegram.
Prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia. Ensure safe passage for civilians near Kursk Oblast.
Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
Monitor the situation in Syria and analyze its potential impacts on regional stability and the possibility of a resurgence of terrorist groups.
Monitor Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns. Monitor recruitment efforts of the FSB in Crimea.
Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats, and be aware of the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Analyze the potential impacts of deploying European Peacekeepers and prepare for the possibility of post-conflict operations with peacekeeper forces.
Improve logistical operations, especially in areas experiencing supply chain disruptions. Investigate any corruption leading to logistical issues. Improve logistical support to Ukrainian drone units.
Maintain active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses, and monitor for acts of sabotage in both Russia and Ukraine. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract the effective use of drones by Russia.
Monitor and assess the impacts of economic and political instability within Russia and Ukraine. Monitor the impact of new financial restrictions in Ukraine.
Investigate and address reports of atrocities coming from Kursk Oblast and from Syria. Address reports of extra-judicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar events.
Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
Monitor weather conditions and account for the impact on military operations and civilian populations.
Assess the threat level and prepare for possible increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles.
Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Continue to address reports of corruption within both the Ukrainian military and civilian sectors.
Monitor and analyze reports of Russia using foreign troops in Ukraine, including forces from North Korea.
Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia and assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay.
Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv. Monitor the locations of Russian long range missile batteries and assess their threat.
Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China.
Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine.
Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest.
Pay close attention to Ukrainian energy infrastructure to assess its vulnerability and readiness.
Monitor Russian recruitment methods and practices and note the presence of prisoners and soldiers from other countries.
Investigate claims of widespread extortion and human rights violations in both Russia and Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the increased death toll in Zaporizhzhia and the overturned Bradley.
Analyze the implications of the confirmed Ukrainian support for HTS rebels in Syria.
Evaluate the implications of the potential embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military.
Evaluate the implications of the potential NATO deployment of B-61 nuclear weapons in Poland or Ukraine.
Assess the impact of the Ukrainian strike on the Bryansk oil depot.
Analyze the implications of the destroyed Bradley Fighting Vehicle.
Investigate reports of forced contract signings within Russian forces.
Assess the impact of low morale and illness within Ukrainian forces.
Evaluate the potential impact of increased US sanctions on Russian oil.
Analyze the successful Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian Supercam drone.
Assess and respond to the ongoing waves of reports concerning mines being discovered in many places across Ukraine.
Consider the deployment of Russian troops using airborne operations, particularly around the Kharkiv region.
Reevaluate plans to account for the use of live animals in combat scenarios, and consider ways to counter this tactic.
Reevaluate routes used by vehicles given that a vehicle was successfully targeted by an FPV drone, despite poor weather conditions.
Consider and evaluate the information coming from the new Russian media channel ‘Ruptly’.
Develop plans to address a potential wave of refugees returning to the country from Germany and other parts of Europe.
Assess the new Ukrainian training programs, and implement new training methods that can be utilized at the brigade level.
Assess the potential threats posed by various military groups in Syria and develop a strategy to limit their operational capacities.
Prioritize and prepare for an increased demand for body bags, and consider methods of disposing of bodies to prevent the spread of disease.
Assess the implications of increased corruption within both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries and implement procedures to mitigate corruption and fraud.
Increase monitoring and surveillance of air activity along the border regions.
Consider the long term impacts of troop morale and implement steps to improve troop welfare.
Evaluate new Russian propaganda methods and develop counter-propaganda to combat these new methods.
Consider the possibility of a push for a negotiated settlement and the implications of various concessions or limitations of support for Ukraine from its allies.
Assess the situation regarding NATO nations decreasing their level of funding for social programs while increasing their military spending.
Consider the long term implications of Russia modernizing its nuclear forces.
Assess the implications of increased Russian air operations in and around Sumy.
Assess the vulnerability of the oil supply chain both in Russia and Europe.
Investigate the validity of claims that Ukraine may be divided, and that Western support is not as robust as it seems.
Further research is needed into claims that Ukrainian forces are being forced into contracts and that conscripted soldiers are being sent to the front lines.
Investigate claims of Russian troops looting in Syria as they prepare to return to Russia.
Assess and account for the presence of "shadow" oil tankers and their potential routes, methods and financial impacts.
Analyze the implications for Ukrainian forces if Russia establishes a stable security agreement with the new leadership in Syria and are able to move military assets to Ukraine.

Conclusion:

The situation is highly volatile and constantly shifting. Russian forces continue their advances, with increasingly sophisticated drone capabilities. Ukrainian forces remain actively fighting, often using drone technology. Propaganda and disinformation efforts continue, and international partners are closely monitoring the region. Logistical and humanitarian concerns remain high priorities. Financial and political instability are impacting all parties. A reevaluation of current strategies is needed, with all factors considered in future decision-making. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and the increasing number of drone strikes add to the instability, highlighting a need for a comprehensive and adaptive strategic response. Recent reports of Russian advances in multiple locations of Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian drone strikes, and a renewed push near Pokrovsk require close monitoring and rapid tactical adjustment. New Ukrainian training initiatives should be noted and their efficacy should be assessed, as should Russian psychological operation tactics. The Russian military has continued to lose personnel and equipment in heavy fighting around Kursk, and near Pokrovsk, and that Russian logistical systems appear to be under strain. Ukrainian forces have also continued to lose personnel and equipment, and are struggling with internal issues such as corruption and low morale. The ongoing global economic situation continues to have an impact on both sides of the conflict and Russia has been attempting to circumvent existing sanctions through a “shadow fleet” of tankers. The long term implications of the economic and political landscape remain important factors in assessing long-term strategic advantages. The threat posed by enemy drones continues to grow, therefore the improvement and implementation of counter drone measures remains a critical need. A new threat has emerged as the Russian forces are now utilizing drones in areas previously not impacted, such as Cherkassy.

Major Updates from the Past 6 Hours:

Drone Activity: New groups of enemy drones are moving south in northern Chernihiv Oblast and west/southwest in central Sumy Oblast. Russian drones are now also moving toward Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. Ukrainian drones have been spotted targeting Russian military facilities in Russian territory. New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving in a west/southwest direction. New groups of Russian drones are now targeting areas in Cherkassy as well as Sumy, Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts.
Zaporizhzhia: Two rescuers injured in a Russian attack on Stepnohirsk, this has increased to three injured in that area. Rolling blackouts and attacks on energy infrastructure continue. A hospital was hit by a Russian missile, and the death toll has risen to 11, this has now been reported at 6 dead and 22 injured. IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted. A meeting of top leadership was held to discuss the air defense of that region. The Ukrainian president met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address air defenses of the region. There were 268 attacks on 10 settlements in the area in the last 24 hours, including drone strikes and multiple rocket and artillery strikes.
Eastern Ukraine: The Ukrainian military reported 138 combat engagements, mostly focused on the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions. Heavy fighting continues near Novotroitskoye and Toretsk. Ukrainian forces report Russian infiltration of small groups into Pokrovsk. Russian forces have taken control over Zarya and have made advances near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka, and near Veselyi Hai. The Ukrainian military has stated that the area around Pokrovsk is still under very intense fighting, and their troops are sustaining very heavy casualties. The front line seems to be under pressure from Russian forces advancing near Starie Terny towards Dachnoe, which impacts the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway. The Ukrainian military has stated that a group of Russian forces is currently trapped inside a power plant near Kurakhovo, and their supply lines have been cut. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Toretsk. The Russian military is making advancement near Novotroitskoye.
Kursk Region: Russian forces have taken Novoiivanovka. Ukrainian forces report Russian counterattacks near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo. Ukrainian forces report repelling 22 Russian assaults in the Kursk region. Russian forces have reportedly liberated Daryino, and continue to advance in the Sudzha district. There are reports of a Ukrainian unit surrendering in the Kursk region. Russian forces are reportedly pushing towards the town of Sudzha.
Sumy Oblast: New groups of Russian drones are moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts. Russian forces are reportedly advancing into Sumy Oblast, forcing a Ukrainian retreat.
Military Activity: Ukrainian forces report intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Russian forces have taken Zolote. Russia is also reportedly moving troops and equipment

Situation Report

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 12, 2024 (15:47:05 UTC)