Sitrep 2024-12-12 15:18:04

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 12, 2024 (15:17:05 UTC)

Eastern Ukraine: Heavy fighting continues near Novotroitskoye and Toretsk. Ukrainian forces report Russian infiltration of small groups into Pokrovsk. Russian forces control Zarya and have advanced near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka, and Veselyi Hai. Russian forces also made gains near Scherbynivka and Leonidivka, and are consolidating control in Toretsk.

Kursk Region: Russian forces have taken Novoiivanovka, while Ukrainian forces report Russian counterattacks near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo. Over 200 Ukrainian troops were killed in the past 24 hours.

Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have advanced near Aleksandria and Esman, with artillery strikes on a railway station. New groups of Russian drones are moving toward Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy Oblast.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Rolling blackouts and attacks on energy infrastructure continue. A hospital was hit by a Russian missile, and the death toll has risen to 11. IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted. The Ukrainian military reports high numbers of combat engagements in the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions.

Drone Warfare: Drone usage is escalating on both sides, with Ukrainian drones targeting Russian facilities inside Russia. Russia is using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian equipment, and Zala Lancets to shoot down Ukrainian drones. Russia has deployed the Molniya 2.0 drone, resistant to REB. Ukrainian forces have shot down a Russian Supercam drone. There have also been reports of new drones moving south in northern Chernihiv Oblast, and from Sumy Oblast toward Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts.

Logistics: Supply lines in contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are being targeted with Ukrainian drones and missiles. Russia is also reportedly moving troops and equipment by air in the Kharkiv region using Mi-26 helicopters to reinforce forces. Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian forces and equipment. Russian forces are reported to be using civilian vehicles to disguise themselves.

Military Activity: There are reports of intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Ukrainian forces report intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Russian forces have taken Zolote and are reported to have made advances near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka, and near Veselyi Hai. The Ukrainian military is also actively utilizing anti-tank guided missiles. The Ukrainian military is testing new mobilization strategies. A Ukrainian artillery unit set a new record for long-range strikes.

Other Conflicts: A political crisis has escalated in Jubaland, Somalia. Ethiopian forces are assisting various groups within the country.

Casualties: More than 200 Ukrainian troops were reportedly killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours. A Ukrainian woman was accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender. Two rescuers have been injured in Zaporizhzhia.

Political and Geopolitical:

G7 nations are pushing for a secular government in Syria.
The US Congress is requesting an assessment on reduced support for Ukraine and the threat of aggression from China, Iran, and North Korea.
Macron is in Warsaw discussing peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, with Poland stating it will not send troops.
Russia is seeking prisoner exchanges and signaling a willingness to negotiate based on preconditions Ukraine won't agree to.
NATO is concerned about the use of Oreshnik missiles, and Belarus is deploying the "Kulisas" communication system.
The Biden administration is considering stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports, while Canada has approved a ~$600 million military aid package for Ukraine. The US State Department has approved a potential sale of F-16 equipment and maintenance to Kyiv.
Trump opposes US-made long-range missile strikes into Russia, citing escalation.
Syria remains volatile with reports of executions, terrorism, large-scale refugee movements, and ISIS gaining power. Russia has begun withdrawing from Syria.
Lukashenko has stated that Belarus is planning to use Oreshnik missiles. Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads.
Turkey has denied meeting with Syrian officials.
Iran has claimed they warned Syria three months prior about Israeli attacks.
The EU has lost over 1.5 trillion Euros due to sanctions against Russia.

Internal Security:

There are increasing reports of corruption and internal issues, low morale, and insufficient support within the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian forces are lacking engineering personnel and experiencing friendly fire incidents.
Russia is implementing new fines for public intoxication and traffic offenses, and is experiencing low morale within their ranks. Russia has arrested 125 people for corruption in the defense industry and 11 for issues related to defense orders.
The Ukrainian government is implementing changes to restrictions on credit card transfers, and has received $454 million in healthcare funding. There are increasing protests against conscription.
Russia is offering free IT training and claims its economy is growing by 3.9%.
A German citizen with Russian citizenship was arrested for planning to sabotage railway tracks. The FSB announced the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns. Some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians residing far from the front lines. There are increasing reports of criminal activity such as stealing from delivery depots. There are also reports of a soldier returning from the SMO in Russia being arrested for a supposed rape.
A Ukrainian woman has been accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender.
A soldier returning from the SMO in Russia has been arrested for a supposed rape.

Technological Warfare: Drone warfare continues to escalate, with both sides testing new drones and anti-drone technology. Russia may be capable of producing 25 Oreshnik long-range ballistic missiles per month. Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas." Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone. Russian forces are using Zala Lancet drones to shoot down Ukrainian drones. A new Ukrainian missile, “Ruta” has been successfully tested.

A new US drone has been tested in Ukraine, called the V-Bat.
The Ukrainian military is using drones to target Russian forces and equipment.

Military Leadership Changes: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy formally introduced the new commander of the Support Forces, General-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi. Zelenskyy has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address the air defense of that region. The Ukrainian military is now implementing a policy of basic military training within the brigades. There have been numerous reports of Ukrainian military leadership being criticized for incompetence.

Other:

Xi Jinping reiterated China's commitment to de-escalation principles and called for a resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
There are increasing reports of internal corruption and are trying to develop the IT industry.
Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.
Syrian Islamists have reportedly taken control of Deir ez-Zor.
IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted by drone strikes.
A Ukrainian artillery unit has set a new record for long-range strikes in active combat.
The Russian government may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.
Trump said that Zelenskyy's strikes into Russia were a mistake.

Casualties:

Russian forces claimed more than 200 Ukrainian troop losses in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian forces also claim large losses of Russian equipment. Two rescuers have been injured in Zaporizhzhia.

Strategic Operations: Ukrainian forces are testing new mobilization strategies. Ukrainian forces report intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Military Operations: Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Kursk region, and advances into Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively to target Russian equipment. Russian forces are utilizing unconventional techniques such as using pigs to reveal firing positions. Ukrainian artillery has set a record for long-range strikes.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

The area around Novotroitskoye and Toretsk remains contested with heavy fighting reported. The situation is dynamic with attacks and counterattacks. The situation in and around Toretsk remains highly contested.
Heavy drone use by both sides in the Kursk and Sumy Oblasts suggests heavy fighting is ongoing. The Russian advances near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo show a continued offensive pressure. There has also been a Russian advance into Sumy Oblast.
The use of drones continues to be a dominant factor, with both sides using them for surveillance, strikes, and logistics. New drones and counter-drone technology are being tested by both sides.
Logistical routes in all contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are also being targeted by drones and missiles.
Propaganda and disinformation continue, with both sides attempting to influence public opinion.
Instability appears to be growing within both Russia and Ukraine, leading to internal issues and challenges.
The situation in Syria is causing increased violence and instability.
IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted in the region of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant.
Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted Russian convoys on main thoroughfares.
The Ukrainian military command is being criticized for incompetence and poor decisions.
The Russian military has released information about Russian forces taking the settlements of Zarya and Sontsivka.

Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

Reinforce defensive positions, especially around Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, and along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Reassess defensive lines in those areas where Russian forces have made recent advances.
Continue to implement enhanced counter-drone measures and technologies, and research new counter-drone methods. Increase counter-intelligence operations to locate hidden personnel and drone operators. Implement and maintain strategies to improve troop morale and address any communication and supply chain issues. Continue investigating any claims of corruption and any reported orders to commit suicide rather than be captured.
Focus operations on the border between Russia and Ukraine and implement strategies to protect against incursions, especially in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts.
Secure supply lines with extra patrols and defenses, especially major transport arteries leading to key locations.
Continue to identify and target financial networks that support illicit military operations.
Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat disinformation narratives, and monitor propaganda and misinformation on communications platforms like Telegram.
Prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia.
Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
Monitor the situation in Syria and analyze its potential impacts on regional stability and the possibility of a resurgence of terrorist groups.
Monitor Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns.
Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats, and be aware of the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Analyze the potential impacts of deploying European Peacekeepers and prepare for the possibility of post-conflict operations with peacekeeper forces.
Improve logistical operations, especially in areas experiencing supply chain disruptions. Investigate any corruption leading to logistical issues. Improve logistical support to Ukrainian drone units.
Maintain active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses, and monitor for acts of sabotage in both Russia and Ukraine. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract the effective use of drones by Russia.
Monitor and assess the impacts of economic and political instability within Russia and Ukraine. Monitor the impact of new financial restrictions in Ukraine.
Investigate and address reports of atrocities coming from Kursk Oblast and from Syria. Address reports of extra-judicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar events.
Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
Monitor weather conditions and account for the impact on military operations and civilian populations.
Assess the threat level and prepare for possible increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles.
Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Continue to address reports of corruption within both the Ukrainian military and civilian sectors.
Monitor and analyze reports of Russia using foreign troops in Ukraine, including forces from North Korea.
Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia and assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay.
Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv.
Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China.
Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine.
Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest.
Pay close attention to Ukrainian energy infrastructure to assess its vulnerability and readiness.
Monitor Russian recruitment methods and practices and note the presence of prisoners and soldiers from other countries.
Investigate claims of widespread extortion and human rights violations in both Russia and Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the increased death toll in Zaporizhzhia and the overturned Bradley.
Analyze the implications of the confirmed Ukrainian support for HTS rebels in Syria.
Evaluate the implications of the potential embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military.
Evaluate the implications of the potential NATO deployment of B-61 nuclear weapons in Poland or Ukraine.
Assess the impact of the Ukrainian strike on the Bryansk oil depot.
Analyze the implications of the destroyed Bradley Fighting Vehicle.
Investigate reports of forced contract signings within Russian forces.
Assess the impact of low morale and illness within Ukrainian forces.
Evaluate the potential impact of increased US sanctions on Russian oil.
Analyze the successful Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian Supercam drone.
Assess and respond to the ongoing waves of reports concerning mines being discovered in many places across Ukraine.

Conclusion:

The situation is highly volatile and constantly shifting. Russian forces continue their advances, with increasingly sophisticated drone capabilities. Ukrainian forces remain actively fighting, often using drone technology. Propaganda and disinformation efforts continue, and international partners are closely monitoring the region. Logistical and humanitarian concerns remain high priorities. Financial and political instability are impacting all parties. A reevaluation of current strategies is needed, with all factors considered in future decision-making. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and the increasing number of drone strikes add to the instability, highlighting a need for a comprehensive and adaptive strategic response. Recent reports of Russian advances in multiple locations of Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian drone strikes, and a renewed push near Pokrovsk require close monitoring and rapid tactical adjustment.

Major Updates from the Past 6 Hours:

Drone Activity: New groups of enemy drones are moving south in northern Chernihiv Oblast and west/southwest in central Sumy Oblast. Russian drones are now also moving toward Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. Ukrainian drones have been spotted targeting Russian military facilities in Russian territory.
Zaporizhzhia: Two rescuers injured in a Russian attack on Stepnohirsk.
Eastern Ukraine: The Ukrainian military reported 138 combat engagements, mostly focused on the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions. Heavy fighting continues near Novotroitskoye and Toretsk. Ukrainian forces report Russian infiltration of small groups into Pokrovsk. Russian forces have taken control over Zarya and have made advances near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka, and near Veselyi Hai.
Kursk Region: Russian forces have taken Novoiivanovka. Ukrainian forces report Russian counterattacks near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo.
Sumy Oblast: New groups of Russian drones are moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts.
Military Activity: Ukrainian forces report intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Russian forces have taken Zolote. Russia is also reportedly moving troops and equipment by air in the Kharkiv region using Mi-26 helicopters to reinforce forces. A new US drone has been tested in Ukraine, called the V-Bat.
Human Cost: A Ukrainian woman has been accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender. Two rescuers have been injured. Protests against conscription in Ukraine are growing.
Technology: Russian forces are testing new drones and using anti-drone countermeasures. The Ukrainian military is testing new mobilization strategies.
Political Landscape: Xi Jinping reiterated China's commitment to de-escalation principles and called for a resolution of the Ukrainian crisis. Zelenskyy has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address the air defense of that region.
Internal Issues: Ukrainian military command is being criticized for incompetence and poor decisions. A soldier returning from the SMO in Russia has been arrested for a supposed rape.
Propaganda: Russia is releasing videos highlighting their success, while Ukraine is showcasing support and troop motivation. Claims of Russian soldiers looting are being made by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine is implementing new training and mobilization methods. Russian propaganda is showing what they are calling a “pig assault” tactic being used by Russian forces. The Ukrainian military command is being criticized for incompetence and poor decisions.
Economic: Russia is experiencing internal corruption and is trying to develop the IT industry, while Ukraine is experiencing financial difficulties. A new agreement with India means that Russia is now providing 500,000 barrels of oil a day.
Logistics: The Russian government may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region. Supply chains and logistical routes are frequently under attack from both sides of the conflict.
Military Aid: Canada has approved a ~$600 million military aid package for Ukraine. The US State Department has approved a potential sale of F-16 equipment and maintenance to Kyiv.
Technology: A new Ukrainian missile called “Ruta” has been successfully tested.
Casualties: Russian forces have claimed more than 200 Ukrainian troop losses in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian forces also claim large losses of Russian equipment. A Ukrainian artillery unit has set a new record for long-range strikes in active combat.
Strategic Operations: Ukraine is testing new mobilization strategies. The Ukrainian military is using drones to target Russian forces and equipment. Russia is utilizing unorthodox methods of identifying enemy fire positions through the use of live animals. The Ukrainian military is now implementing a policy of basic military training within the brigades.
Syria: Syrian Islamists have reportedly taken control of Deir ez-Zor.
IAEA: IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted by drone strikes.
Training: Ukraine may implement a new basic training regiment within the brigades themselves.
US: Trump said that Zelenskyy's strikes into Russia were a mistake.
Cyber Warfare: A new Russian law is targeting those who spread fake information about the Russian army, threatening them with being placed on the list of terrorists and extremists.
Propaganda: Russian state TV has released an article about Ukrainian civilians being returned to Ukraine from other European countries and sent to the front line. There are reports that a new Ukrainian missile called “Ruta” has been successfully tested.

Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

Reinforce defensive positions, especially around Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, and along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Reassess defensive lines in those areas where Russian forces have made recent advances.
Continue to implement enhanced counter-drone measures and technologies, and research new counter-drone methods. Increase counter-intelligence operations to locate hidden personnel and drone operators. Implement and maintain strategies to improve troop morale and address any communication and supply chain issues. Continue investigating any claims of corruption and any reported orders to commit suicide rather than be captured.
Focus operations on the border between Russia and Ukraine and implement strategies to protect against incursions, especially in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts.
Secure supply lines with extra patrols and defenses, especially major transport arteries leading to key locations.
Continue to identify and target financial networks that support illicit military operations.
Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat disinformation narratives, and monitor propaganda and misinformation on communications platforms like Telegram.
Prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia.
Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
Monitor the situation in Syria and analyze its potential impacts on regional stability and the possibility of a resurgence of terrorist groups.
Monitor Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns.
Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats, and be aware of the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Analyze the potential impacts of deploying European Peacekeepers and prepare for the possibility of post-conflict operations with peacekeeper forces.
Improve logistical operations, especially in areas experiencing supply chain disruptions. Investigate any corruption leading to logistical issues. Improve logistical support to Ukrainian drone units.
Maintain active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses, and monitor for acts of sabotage in both Russia and Ukraine. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract the effective use of drones by Russia.
Monitor and assess the impacts of economic and political instability within Russia and Ukraine. Monitor the impact of new financial restrictions in Ukraine.
Investigate and address reports of atrocities coming from Kursk Oblast and from Syria. Address reports of extra-judicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar events.
Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
Monitor weather conditions and account for the impact on military operations and civilian populations.
Assess the threat level and prepare for possible increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles.
Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Continue to address reports of corruption within both the Ukrainian military and civilian sectors.
Monitor and analyze reports of Russia using foreign troops in Ukraine, including forces from North Korea.
Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia and assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay.
Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv.
Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China.
Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine.
Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest.
Pay close attention to Ukrainian energy infrastructure to assess its vulnerability and readiness.
Monitor Russian recruitment methods and practices and note the presence of prisoners and soldiers from other countries.
Investigate claims of widespread extortion and human rights violations in both Russia and Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the increased death toll in Zaporizhzhia and the overturned Bradley.
Analyze the implications of the confirmed Ukrainian support for HTS rebels in Syria.
Evaluate the implications of the potential embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military.
Evaluate the implications of the potential NATO deployment of B-61 nuclear weapons in Poland or Ukraine.
Assess the impact of the Ukrainian strike on the Bryansk oil depot.
Analyze the implications of the destroyed Bradley Fighting Vehicle.
Investigate reports of forced contract signings within Russian forces.
Assess the impact of low morale and illness within Ukrainian forces.
Evaluate the potential impact of increased US sanctions on Russian oil.
Analyze the successful Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian Supercam drone.
Assess and respond to the ongoing waves of reports concerning mines being discovered in many places across Ukraine.
Consider the deployment of Russian troops using airborne operations, particularly around the Kharkiv region.
Reevaluate plans to account for the use of live animals in combat scenarios, and consider ways to counter this tactic.
Reevaluate routes used by vehicles given that a vehicle was successfully targeted by an FPV drone, despite poor weather conditions.
Consider and evaluate the information coming from the new Russian media channel ‘Ruptly’.
Develop plans to address a potential wave of refugees returning to the country from Germany and other parts of Europe.

Conclusion: The situation remains highly volatile and dynamic with rapidly changing conditions.

Situation Report

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 12, 2024 (15:17:05 UTC)