Archived operational intelligence briefing
Key Developments:
The situation in Ukraine and Syria remains extremely volatile, with significant escalations and rapid deterioration across multiple fronts. In Ukraine, the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine continues its rapid advance, resulting in substantial territorial gains and heavy Ukrainian casualties. The situation around Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk remains critical, with reports of potential encirclements, extremely high Ukrainian casualty rates, desertions, and widespread low morale. A Ukrainian military assessment points to chaotic battlespace conditions and severe incompetence at the command level directly contributing to these losses. Forbes analyst David Axe highlights the Russian 90th Guards Tank Division's role in creating a wedge to potentially encircle Pokrovsk. Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk following the capture of Shevchenko and have launched a new offensive near Toretsk. They are within 5km of the Pokrovsk coal mine. Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, including multiple ballistic missile strikes on a medical facility and a business center, resulted in at least four deaths and twenty injuries, with reports indicating possibly eight more trapped under rubble in the initial strike. A private clinic and a nearby cafe were destroyed. The death toll in Zaporizhzhia has risen to eight, with 22 injured and four still trapped. Further strikes on Yenakiieve prompted a mass evacuation. Reports reveal widespread corruption within the Ukrainian military, hindering efforts to build effective defensive lines; 30 criminal investigations into alleged embezzlement totaling $483 million are underway. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel, relying on local authorities and infantry brigades for fortifications, with many engineering personnel deployed to frontline positions. Russian forces have taken Zolote, in the Donetsk People's Republic. Reports indicate that Russian forces are advancing in the Kurahov area, with fighting occurring in the town center and near Uspenivka, with a reported push towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye. Reports of intensified fighting around Kurakhove, with Russian forces crossing the Vovcha River and engaging near the Kurahov thermal power plant, effectively cutting off a key Ukrainian supply route. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces has raised the flag over the Kurakhove elevator. Reports of multiple successful drone strikes by Russian forces near the border of the Kursk region. Confirmation that the Russian government is actively engaging in peace negotiations with multiple foreign partners, but insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region. Reports from the Polish defense minister stating that the Russian military offensive has significantly accelerated. Reports indicating that the Ukrainian military has successfully tested a new missile called “Ruta,” and that the “Palyanytsya” missile is in mass production, and that the “Peklo” drone missile has been successfully deployed. Zelenskyy’s request for 10-12 additional Patriot systems to enhance Ukrainian air defenses. Reports suggest that current mobilization efforts in Ukraine are insufficient to cover losses. The lowering of the draft age to 18 is being considered, with the US stating that they and their allies will be willing to provide the equipment and training for such new forces. Reports indicate significant morale issues and internal conflict within the Ukrainian military. A successful Russian counter-attack in the Kurakhove region has been reported. Video evidence of Ukrainian tank engagements near Romaniivka and Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo has been confirmed. Video showing Russian forces in the area of Kurakhove’s elevator has been released. Russian forces have reportedly advanced into Sumy Oblast near the village of Aleksandria. Russian forces have improved their positions near the village of Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian forces captured five buildings in Volchansk and repelled a counterattack. Heavy fighting continues. A video shows Russian infantry burning and taking heavy casualties near Pokrovsk. Further reports indicate positional fighting near Krasnoarmeysk, shelling of Russian forward positions on the Krasnoarmeysk-Kurakhove railway and on the outskirts of Novyi Trud, and an advance of over 2km on the southern flank of Krasnoarmeysk. Further reports indicate active fighting around Ugledar, an infantry assault on Veselyi Hai, and a 3km advance north of Ugledar. The advances are stretching Ukrainian forces and limiting their ability to transfer reinforcements. A new Russian offensive is underway near the city of Toretsk. Russian forces have reportedly advanced into Sumy Oblast near the village of Aleksandria, south of the recently liberated Plyukhovo. Heavy fighting is reported in this area. This advance may be related to the difficulty of crossing the Psiol River near the Suja-Plyukhovo axis. A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast despite the presence of elite units. A T-72B3M tank successfully destroyed a Ukrainian firing position with direct fire, clearing a path for advancing infantry through a minefield. This highlights the continuing effectiveness of combined arms tactics by the Russian military. Reports indicate that 13 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Belgorod, Rostov, and Astrakhan regions, and a further 14 over Bryansk Oblast, further strengthening Russian air defenses. A report indicated that Russia destroyed ten UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense is planning to introduce deputy commander positions for logistics in airborne battalions. A successful FPV drone strike by the 56th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an M1 Abrams tank in Kursk Oblast. The 331st Regiment, 98th Airborne Division, eliminated a Ukrainian position ("Baba Yaga") on the Chasov Yar front. Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar, capturing a strongpoint despite Ukrainian use of cluster munitions. A video shows Russian forces breaking through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar after heavy shelling, taking a strategic position. A resident of Yenakiieve reports a strike on an ammunition depot, further highlighting continued attacks within occupied territories. The video shows a resident who is concealing their face, a common tactic in occupied areas, likely for fear of reprisal. Reports indicate a firefight near the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast. Residents confirm intense shelling from both sides for approximately 3 hours. Over the past 24 hours, there have been 268 attacks on 10 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, involving 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes. Damage has been reported to 33 buildings. A Russian quasi-ballistic missile (9M723-1 Iskander) strike hit a hospital complex in Zaporizhzhia, resulting in significant losses to Ukrainian personnel and the death of a high-ranking NATO official. Ukrainian F-16s are based in Poland, with 7 already operational and flying missions over Ukraine, while additional aircraft are undergoing preparations. This signifies the ongoing Western military support for Ukraine. The US State Department approved a $266 million package for servicing Ukrainian F-16s. This package has been officially approved. Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas," described as a Belarusian equivalent to Starlink. This demonstrates the ongoing technological advancements and reinforcement of Belarus's military capabilities. The Russian Ministry of Digital Development is offering free IT training to its citizens, aiming to address a significant shortage of IT professionals. While not directly related to the military, this indicates an attempt to strengthen its technological workforce. Raids are underway on Ukranian railway facilities in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast to stop an organized crime group operating within the railway system. Passengers should expect potential delays and disruptions. A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast despite the presence of elite units. Allegations of war crimes committed by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast are reported by a Russian battalion commander; further verification is needed. A group of Bulgarian nationals were arrested in 2023 and charged with espionage for Russia, with plans to kidnap or possibly assassinate Christo Grozev and Roman Dobrokhotov. Ukrainian sources suggest the Taganrog attack involved either ATACMS missiles or a new Ukrainian drone, called "Palyanytsya". Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target. A Ukrainian drone strike destroyed a Russian command post, causing significant casualties. The Canadian Parliament approved a ~$600 million direct military aid package for Ukraine, with additional funding for financial support and demining/cybersecurity. Russian economic growth is projected at 3.9% for 2024. The Washington Post reported that Ukrainian intelligence services provided support to HTS rebels in Syria before their offensive against government forces. This involved the transfer of drone operators and drones. This was confirmed by other sources. A video shows the severe damage to Mariupol's sanitation system due to the ongoing conflict. A prominent Syrian opposition figure stated that Syria seeks to resolve differences with all countries, based on non-interference principles. He later stated that the new Syrian government will consider the issue of Russian military bases. Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the southeastern direction of Ukraine, posing a threat to the use of air weapons in areas near the front. Ukrainian air forces reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeast. They also reported conducting guided air bomb strikes in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian tactical aviation conducted guided air bomb strikes in the Donetsk region. Reports allege embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military, negatively impacting troop morale and operational effectiveness. A report in the National Interest suggests NATO may deploy B-61 nuclear bombs in Poland or Ukraine as a response to the deployment of Russian Oreshnik missiles. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed a strike on the Bryansk oil depot, resulting in a large fire and potential significant disruptions to Russian fuel supply lines. Multiple sources confirmed this strike, showing extensive fire damage. Reports suggest Ukrainian aid to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels in Syria before their offensive against government forces, including the transfer of drone operators and drones. This was confirmed by multiple sources. Video footage shows an overturned US-made M2A2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle, abandoned by Ukrainian forces. Maria Zakharova stated that the US aid to Ukraine is intended to prolong the conflict. A video shows a successful sniper engagement by a commander from the Akhmat special forces, killing two Ukrainian snipers. A report details the fraudulent enlistment of seven conscripts in Chebarkul, forcing them to sign contracts under duress, highlighting issues with Russian military recruitment practices. A captured Ukrainian soldier reports low morale, widespread food poisoning, and illnesses within his unit. Reports suggest that the Biden administration is considering imposing stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports before Trump's inauguration, potentially impacting global oil prices. A Ukrainian military unit successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone. Alexi Raumo, former deputy director-general of the Karelian Development Corporation, was arrested in Petrozavodsk, Russia. He had previously fled Russia due to geopolitical issues. Three call centers in Moscow were raided by FSB and МВД, resulting in several arrests. These centers were allegedly linked to an international network of scammers who funneled some proceeds to support the Ukrainian military effort. A new Ukrainian drone, the "Postman," is reported deployed near Kurakhovo, delivering targeted strikes. Great Britain successfully tested a laser weapon mounted on an armored vehicle. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of Daryino and Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian losses of over 200 soldiers, one tank, and three Bradley fighting vehicles in Kursk Oblast. President Zelenskyy confirmed significant Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and energy targets in Bryansk and Taganrog oblasts, citing “range and accuracy” as key factors. Multiple sources confirm the damage to the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex and the Bryansk oil depot. President Zelenskyy reported record Russian casualties in November and December. Continued reports of Russian offensive actions throughout Donetsk Oblast, with advances in numerous locations. Ukrainian forces are reportedly deploying reserves in several areas to counter these advances. Heavy fighting continues throughout numerous locations in eastern Ukraine, resulting in significant casualties on both sides. Reports of mass casualties in Syria, alongside the release of prisoners from Assad-era prisons, indicative of intensified fighting between various factions. Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled to Russia. Reports suggest that President Macron is seeking allies for a potential European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Reports suggest significant corruption and leadership problems within the 152nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Serhiy Sternenko announced the delivery of 320 drones to various Ukrainian military units. Images emerged showing an upgraded Russian Su-57 fighter jet with a new engine nozzle design aimed at improving stealth capabilities. Maria Zakharova urged Russian citizens to avoid travel to Western countries, while Sergey Ryabkov stated that Russia’s nuclear disarmament cooperation with unfriendly nations is “politically unacceptable.” Vyacheslav Volodin expressed Russia’s commitment to addressing illegal migration, seeking migrants who respect Russian laws and traditions. A major fire occurred in the Mercury Tower in Moscow-City. Reports indicate that a mobilized soldier with suicidal ideation was returned to the front line and that another soldier was sentenced to six years in prison for desertion. The assassination of Khalil Haqqani, a Taliban official in Kabul, was reported. In Syria, the complete collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Numerous factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are vying for control, resulting in widespread summary executions and a major refugee crisis. Reports indicate summary executions and war crimes by multiple actors, including the confirmed presence of rape and torture by Russian occupiers. Israel's large-scale military strikes, culminating in the complete destruction of the Syrian navy, have dramatically escalated the situation, potentially triggering further regional instability. Russia is reportedly conducting a large-scale withdrawal of its forces from Syria, with some units being evacuated under duress from areas controlled by Kurdish forces. A video shows a long column of surrendering Syrian soldiers. Israel has confirmed the destruction of Syrian naval vessels and intends to defend its security interests while avoiding Syrian internal affairs, but will respond resolutely to hostile acts from the new Syrian government. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, engaging in summary executions and looting. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he approved the airstrikes to prevent the captured equipment from falling into the hands of jihadists. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria. Reports indicate increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families over lack of support. Reports that the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. Bashar al-Assad is reported to be in Russia. Civilian casualties continue to rise sharply in both Ukraine and Syria, necessitating urgent humanitarian intervention. The deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and private clinics, is a grave concern. Reports indicate a drone strike targeted an IAEA vehicle traveling to the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant; the vehicle's armored plating prevented casualties, though a subsequent strike on an IAEA convoy resulted in significant damage to one vehicle, though no casualties. Another drone strike on an IAEA vehicle en route to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has also been confirmed. Multiple attacks against IAEA vehicles have been reported. Rafael Grossi has condemned the attacks as unacceptable. A further attack on an IAEA vehicle en route to the ZNPP has been reported; personnel were unharmed. Intense information warfare continues, demanding a robust counter-information effort. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets (MiG-29 and Su-27) to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, reported by U.S. sources. Further, Lukashenko has claimed that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads. Belarus has tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine. Reports also indicate that Russia is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. Families of Wagner Group mercenaries are complaining about the lack of support from the Russian government for those killed in action. Reports indicate increased satellite activity over Northwest Russia, suggesting potential Ukrainian preparation for strikes on Kursk Oblast. A new Russian offensive is underway near the city of Toretsk. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, and that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads. Belarus has also tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine. Reports indicate increased satellite activity over Northwest Russia, suggesting potential Ukrainian preparation for strikes on Kursk Oblast. The village of Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces. A military court in Russia has begun proceedings against Ukrainian soldiers who infiltrated Kursk Oblast, extending the pre-trial detention of seven soldiers for six months.
New Developments (since last report):
All previous developments remain. The following are new developments based on the information provided:
Taganrog Attack: A reported missile or drone strike on Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, resulted in damage to an industrial facility (the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex), a boiler plant resulting in the loss of heat to 27 apartment buildings, and the burning of 14 vehicles. Multiple sources now confirm damage to the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex. Further reports indicate that the boiler plant supplying heat to 27 apartment buildings has been damaged. Preliminary reports suggest the attack may have been conducted using ATACMS missiles. Ukrainian sources suggest the Taganrog attack involved either ATACMS missiles or a new Ukrainian drone, called "Palyanytsya". Astra has confirmed damage to an aviation repair plant on the basis of geolocation and analysis of received video footage. The Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex is now confirmed as a likely target. Ukrainian sources suggest the Taganrog attack involved either ATACMS missiles or a new Ukrainian drone, called "Palyanytsya". Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target. Reports indicate that the attack involved six ATACMS missiles, and that while not all were intercepted, no damage was done to infrastructure, only to vehicles in the parking lot.
Bryansk Oblast Drone Attacks and Explosion: Ten UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by Russian air defenses. A further 14 UAVs were intercepted overnight. However, video and photographic evidence shows a significant explosion at a Transneft oil depot in Bryansk, and a separate incident involving a fire at a production facility (fire extinguished by emergency services), contradicting initial official reports of no damage or casualties. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast confirmed a fire at an industrial facility resulting from a drone strike. Video and photographic evidence shows significant damage to a Transneft oil refinery. Multiple sources confirm the attack and damage. An additional 14 UAVs were destroyed overnight in Bryansk Oblast. Reports indicate that two mainline locomotives servicing the Russian military were destroyed in a fire at a Bryansk railway depot on December 5th. A subsequent Ukrainian report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms a strike on the Bryansk oil depot on December 10th using unmanned systems. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine confirmed a strike on the Bryansk oil depot using unmanned systems. Further reports confirmed the Ukrainian strike on the Bryansk oil depot, resulting in a large fire. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the attack on the Bryansk oil depot. Multiple sources confirm the extent of the damage to the Transneft oil refinery. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed a strike on the Bryansk oil depot, resulting in a large fire. Multiple sources confirmed this strike, showing extensive fire damage. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed a strike on the Bryansk oil depot.
Successful FPV Drone Strike on Ukrainian Electronic Warfare Station: A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station. Video evidence confirms the strike.
14th and 16th Special Forces Brigade Drone Operations: The 14th and 16th Special Forces Brigades conducted successful drone operations targeting enemy vehicles, field depots, and manpower near the Sukhie Yaly River and Serebryansk forest respectively. Video evidence supports this.
Russian Advance in Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have reportedly advanced into Sumy Oblast near the village of Aleksandria, south of the recently liberated Plyukhovo. Heavy fighting is reported in the area. This advance may be related to the difficulty of crossing the Psiol River near the Suja-Plyukhovo axis.
Continued Russian Advances in Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces continue to make gains in Donetsk Oblast, consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing towards other key locations like Scherbynivka and Leonidivka. Heavy fighting continues near Pokrovsk, with Russian forces achieving notable successes. In Kurakhovo, the capture of an elevator provides significant strategic advantage. Russian forces have effectively destroyed a Ukrainian grouping of forces between the villages of Elizavetovka and Uspenovka, south of Kurakhovo. Further reports indicate that Russian forces are consolidating control in the southern Kurakhovo district and that fighting continues in the city center. Russian forces have secured the southeastern part of Uspenovka, cutting off Ukrainian escape routes from Annivka. A Ukrainian grouping of forces south of Kurakhovo has been largely destroyed. Russian forces are making advancements near Toretsk, controlling the Zabalok district and the central mine along with its spoil heaps. They are advancing towards Scherbynivka and Leonidivka to the west. Near Pokrovsk, Russian forces have established control over the area north of Petrovka and continue to attack towards Dachnoye and Zelenoye. They are making advances near Novotroitskoye, and also south of Voznesenka. The advances are stretching Ukrainian forces and limiting their ability to transfer reinforcements. Russian forces captured five buildings in Volchansk and repelled a counterattack. Heavy fighting continues. A video shows Russian infantry burning and taking heavy casualties near Pokrovsk. Further reports indicate positional fighting near Krasnoarmeysk, shelling of Russian forward positions on the Krasnoarmeysk-Kurakhove railway and on the outskirts of Novyi Trud, and an advance of over 2km on the southern flank of Krasnoarmeysk. Further reports indicate active fighting around Ugledar, an infantry assault on Veselyi Hai, and a 3km advance north of Ugledar.
Reports of Ukrainian Demoralization in Kursk Oblast: A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast despite the presence of elite units.
Successful Russian Tank Engagement: A T-72B3M tank successfully destroyed a Ukrainian firing position with direct fire, clearing a path for advancing infantry through a minefield. This highlights the continuing effectiveness of combined arms tactics by the Russian military.
Additional Ukrainian Drone Losses: Reports indicate that 13 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Belgorod, Rostov, and Astrakhan regions, and a further 14 over Bryansk Oblast, further strengthening Russian air defenses.
VDV Personnel Changes: The Russian Ministry of Defense is planning to introduce deputy commander positions for logistics in airborne battalions.
Further VDV Successes: A successful FPV drone strike by the 56th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an M1 Abrams tank in Kursk Oblast. The 331st Regiment, 98th Airborne Division, eliminated a Ukrainian position ("Baba Yaga") on the Chasov Yar front. Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar, capturing a strongpoint despite Ukrainian use of cluster munitions. A video shows Russian forces breaking through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar after heavy shelling, taking a strategic position.
Yenakiieve Strike: A resident of Yenakiieve reports a strike on an ammunition depot, further highlighting continued attacks within occupied territories.
Antonovsky Bridge Skirmish: Reports indicate a firefight near the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast. Residents confirm intense shelling from both sides for approximately 3 hours.
Increased Attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Over the past 24 hours, there have been 268 attacks on 10 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, involving 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes. Damage has been reported to 33 buildings. A Russian quasi-ballistic missile (9M723-1 Iskander) strike hit a hospital complex in Zaporizhzhia, resulting in significant losses to Ukrainian personnel and the death of a high-ranking NATO official.
Remote Mine Laying in LNR: Ukrainian forces remotely laid mines in the Serebryansk forest, using cassette munitions and German anti-tank mines.
Ukrainian F-16 Deployment: Reports indicate that Ukrainian F-16s are based in Poland, with 7 already operational and flying missions over Ukraine, while additional aircraft are undergoing preparations.
Belarus Deploys "Kulisas" Communication System: Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas," described as a Belarusian equivalent to Starlink.
Russia Offers Free IT Training: The Russian Ministry of Digital Development is offering free IT training to its citizens, aiming to address a significant shortage of IT professionals.
Ukrainian Railways Raids: Raids are underway on Ukranian railway facilities in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast to stop an organized crime group operating within the railway system.
Reports of Ukrainian Demoralization in Kursk Oblast: A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast despite the presence of elite units.
Arrest of Alexi Raumo: Alexi Raumo, former deputy director-general of the Karelian Development Corporation, was arrested in Petrozavodsk, Russia.
Further Reports of Civilian Casualties: The death toll from the Zaporizhzhia hospital attack has risen to eight.
Allegations of war crimes committed by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast: A Russian battalion commander alleges that Ukrainian forces received orders for reprisals against civilians in Kursk Oblast.
Attempt on the lives of Christo Grozev and Roman Dobrokhotov: A group of Bulgarian nationals were arrested in 2023 and charged with espionage for Russia, with plans to kidnap or possibly assassinate Christo Grozev and Roman Dobrokhotov.
Ukrainian assessment of the Taganrog attack: Ukrainian sources suggest the Taganrog attack involved either ATACMS missiles or a new Ukrainian drone, called "Palyanytsya".
Simultaneous drone strikes: Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target.
Destruction of a Russian command post: A Ukrainian drone strike destroyed a Russian command post, causing significant casualties.
Canadian aid package: The Canadian Parliament approved a ~$600 million direct military aid package for Ukraine, with additional funding for financial support and demining/cybersecurity.
Russian economic growth: Russian economic growth is projected at 3.9% for 2024.
Reported Ukrainian support for HTS: The Washington Post reported that Ukrainian intelligence services provided support to HTS rebels in Syria before their offensive against government forces.
Severe damage to Mariupol's sanitation system: A video shows the severe damage to Mariupol's sanitation system due to the ongoing conflict.
Attempt on the life of a former South Korean defense minister: Kim Yong-hyun, the former South Korean defense minister, attempted suicide while in detention.
Russian recruitment efforts in Crimea: The FSB border guard recruitment video highlighted their advanced technology and readiness for operations.
Russian mobilization video: Videos of alleged Ukrainian mobilization efforts showed individuals being apprehended by authorities.
Removal of Christmas tree in occupied Petrivka: A Christmas tree installed in Petrivka was removed due to the tense security situation.
Syria seeks to resolve conflicts with all nations: A prominent Syrian opposition figure stated that Syria seeks to resolve differences with all countries, based on non-interference principles.
Increased Activity of Russian Tactical Aviation: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the southeastern direction of Ukraine.
Guided Air Bomb Strikes: Ukrainian tactical aviation conducted guided air bomb strikes in Donetsk region.
Alleged Corruption in Ukrainian Military: Reports allege embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military.
Potential for NATO Nuclear Weapons Deployment: A report in the National Interest suggests NATO may deploy B-61 nuclear bombs in Poland or Ukraine.
Ukrainian Drone Strike on Bryansk Oil Depot: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed a strike on the Bryansk oil depot.
Reports of Ukrainian Aid to HTS: Reports suggest Ukrainian aid to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels in Syria.
Overturned Bradley Fighting Vehicle: Video footage shows an overturned US-made M2A2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle.
Russian Response to US Aid to Ukraine: Maria Zakharova stated that the US aid to Ukraine is intended to prolong the conflict.
Sniper Duel: A video shows a successful sniper engagement by a commander from the Akhmat special forces.
Forced Contract Signing in Chebarkul: A report details the fraudulent enlistment of seven conscripts in Chebarkul.
Low Morale and Illness in Ukrainian Forces: A captured Ukrainian soldier reports low morale, widespread food poisoning, and illnesses within his unit.
Potential for Increased US Sanctions on Russian Oil: Reports suggest that the Biden administration is considering imposing stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Ukrainian Drone Operations: A Ukrainian military unit successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone.
Arrest of a former Russian Senator: Alexi Raumo, former deputy director-general of the Karelian Development Corporation, was arrested in Petrozavodsk, Russia.
Raid on Moscow Call Centers: Three call centers in Moscow were raided.
New Drone Deployment in Kurakhove: A new Ukrainian drone, the "Postman," is reported deployed near Kurakhovo.
Successful Laser Weapon Test: Great Britain successfully tested a laser weapon mounted on an armored vehicle.
Liberation of Daryino and Plyukhovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of Daryino and Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast.
Significant Ukrainian Losses in Kursk Oblast: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian losses of over 200 soldiers, one tank, and three Bradley fighting vehicles in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Bryansk and Taganrog: President Zelenskyy confirmed significant Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and energy targets in Bryansk and Taganrog oblasts.
Increased Russian Casualties: President Zelenskyy reported record Russian casualties in November and December.
Russian Offensive Actions in Donetsk Oblast: Continued reports of Russian offensive actions throughout Donetsk Oblast.
Ongoing Fighting and Casualties: Heavy fighting continues throughout numerous locations in eastern Ukraine.
Mass Casualties in Syria: Reports of mass casualties in Syria.
Proposed European Peacekeeping Mission: Reports suggest that President Macron is seeking allies for a potential European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
Allegations of Corruption and Abuse within Ukrainian Military Units: Reports suggest significant corruption and leadership problems within the 152nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Significant Drone Donations to Ukraine: Serhiy Sternenko announced the delivery of 320 drones to various Ukrainian military units.
Su-57 Engine Upgrade: Images emerged showing an upgraded Russian Su-57 fighter jet.
Russian Statements on Nuclear Weapons and Migration: Maria Zakharova urged Russian citizens to avoid travel to Western countries.
Large-scale Fire in Moscow: A major fire occurred in the Mercury Tower in Moscow-City.
Reports of Russian Mobilization and Judicial Actions: Reports indicate that a mobilized soldier with suicidal ideation was returned to the front line.
Death of Khalil Haqqani: The assassination of Khalil Haqqani, a Taliban official in Kabul, was reported.
Assassination of Khalil Haqqani: The assassination of Khalil Haqqani, a Taliban official in Kabul, was reported. The report states that he was killed by a bomb detonated within the Afghan Ministry of Refugees in Kabul.
Reports of significant internal issues within the 152nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: The report highlights widespread instances of abuse, including beatings, threats and harassment.
Successful Ukrainian drone strikes near Vovchansk: The drone strikes resulted in the confirmed deaths of approximately 30 Russian soldiers.
Significant Changes from Previous Reports:
All previous significant changes remain. In addition:
Summary Recommendations for Command:
All previous recommendations remain. The following are added:
Assess the impact of the Taganrog and Bryansk attacks on Russian military capabilities and morale: The destruction of key industrial facilities and disruption of fuel supplies may have significant long-term effects.
Evaluate the potential impact of the Ukrainian F-16 deployment on air superiority: The introduction of F-16s could significantly alter the balance of power in the air.
Monitor the situation in Syria closely: The collapse of the Assad regime and the ongoing violence present significant risks for regional stability and could have global implications.
Assess the implications of the proposed European peacekeeping mission: This diplomatic initiative could significantly alter the conflict’s trajectory.
Address the reports of corruption and abuse within Ukrainian military units: Internal conflicts could severely impact the unit's combat effectiveness.
Analyze the significance of the newly deployed "Postman" drone: This may require adjustments to countermeasures.
Assess the implications of the upgraded Su-57 engine: This technological advancement impacts Russian air superiority.
Evaluate the effects of Russia's statements on nuclear weapons and migration: These statements have significant implications for geopolitical relations and potential future actions.
Evaluate the implications of the reports of mass casualties in Syria: The level of violence and the potential for further unrest demands monitoring and potential intervention strategies.
Assess the impact of the large-scale fire in Moscow on public perception and potential infrastructure vulnerabilities: The incident's cause and any resulting damage need to be assessed.
Assess the impact of the reported assassination of Khalil Haqqani on the stability of Afghanistan: This event could potentially lead to further instability and violence.
Assess the impact of the reported internal issues within the 152nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the overall military readiness: This could lead to reduced unit effectiveness and morale.
Assess the implications of the successful Ukrainian drone strikes near Vovchansk on the overall military situation: This successful engagement could signal a potential shift in the balance of power.
Assess the reported use of ATACMS missiles in the Taganrog attack on Russian military capabilities and defensive strategies: This could lead to increased investments in defensive systems.
Assess the implications of the successful Ukrainian deployment of the "Postman" drone on future battlefield tactics and strategies: This could require adjustments to countermeasures.
Conclusion:
The operational environment remains exceptionally volatile and unpredictable. The intensified fighting in Ukraine, the crisis in Syria, and escalating geopolitical tensions demand a rapid and decisive strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close coordination are vital to navigate these challenges and mitigate risks. The potential for further escalation remains high, necessitating constant vigilance and adaptive
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