Archived operational intelligence briefing
Key Developments:
The situation in Ukraine and Syria remains extremely volatile, with significant escalations across multiple fronts. Intense fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, with Russian advances reported around Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. Reports indicate high Ukrainian casualty rates, desertions, and low morale, exacerbated by widespread corruption (30 ongoing embezzlement investigations) and incompetent command. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel and are suffering from insufficient support and friendly fire incidents. A successful Ukrainian counter-attack in the Kurakhove region has been reported, with video evidence confirming tank engagements near Romaniivka and drone strikes near Kurakhovo. Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, including ballistic missile strikes on a medical facility and business center, resulted in civilian casualties (death toll risen to eight, with 22 injured and four still trapped). Further strikes on Yenakiieve prompted a mass evacuation. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, and that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads. Belarus has also tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine. Reports indicate increased satellite activity over Northwest Russia, suggesting potential Ukrainian preparation for strikes on Kursk Oblast. Russian forces have inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo. A military court in Russia has begun proceedings against Ukrainian soldiers who infiltrated Kursk Oblast, extending the pre-trial detention of seven soldiers for six months. Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk following the capture of Shevchenko. A new Russian offensive is underway near Toretsk. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces has raised the flag over the Kurakhove elevator. Russian forces have reportedly advanced into Sumy Oblast near the village of Aleksandria. Russian forces have improved their positions near the village of Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
In Syria, the collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Numerous factions are vying for control, resulting in widespread violence, summary executions, and a major refugee crisis. Reports indicate war crimes committed by multiple actors. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, engaging in summary executions and looting. Syrian Islamists claim to have taken control of Deir ez-Zor, ousting the SDF Kurds. Israel's "Operation Shield of Bashan" has dramatically escalated the situation, involving widespread airstrikes that resulted in the near-total destruction of the Syrian navy and significant damage to the Syrian military. Video evidence released by Israel confirms the destruction of Syrian naval vessels. Russia is reportedly withdrawing its forces from Syria, although satellite imagery suggests some Russian naval vessels remain near Tartus. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria. Reports indicate increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families. Reports also suggest the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia and increased hunting of Alawites. An Iranian military advisor has claimed that Iran warned Syria about the impending Israeli attacks three months prior. Bashar al-Assad is currently in Russia, confirmed by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. A video shows a long column of surrendering Syrian soldiers. The US has recommended that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) not seize complete control of Syria. Reports indicate that Israel destroyed a research institute in Damascus and that prominent Syrian scientists, Dr. Hamdi Ismail Nady and Sheikh Tawfiq al-Buti, were killed. Multiple images depicting significant damage to civilian structures in Damascus have been received and are being analyzed. Sham Wings has resumed flights between Damascus and Moscow. A prominent Syrian opposition figure, Mohammed Alloush, has stated Syria's desire for cooperation with all nations based on non-interference, and that the Syrian people would decide on the future of US military presence in Syria. He further stated that the Syrian people will not accept an Islamic state. Alloush also stated that the new Syrian government will consider the issue of Russian military bases in light of the interests of the Syrian people and Russia. He later stated that Syria will not become an Islamic state, that the new government will consider the future of Russian military bases, and that Syria seeks cooperation based on non-interference.
Multiple attacks against IAEA vehicles en route to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have been reported, although personnel were unharmed. An emergency meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors has been called to discuss the drone attack on an IAEA vehicle.
New Developments (since last report):
All previous developments remain. The following are new developments based on the information provided:
Taganrog Attack: A reported missile or drone strike on Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, resulted in damage to an industrial facility (the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex), a boiler plant resulting in the loss of heat to 27 apartment buildings, and the burning of 14 vehicles. Multiple sources now confirm damage to the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex. Further reports indicate that the boiler plant supplying heat to 27 apartment buildings has been damaged. Preliminary reports suggest the attack may have been conducted using ATACMS missiles. Ukrainian sources suggest the Taganrog attack involved either ATACMS missiles or a new Ukrainian drone, called "Palyanytsya". Astra has confirmed damage to an aviation repair plant on the basis of geolocation and analysis of received video footage.
Bryansk Oblast Drone Attacks and Explosion: Ten UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by Russian air defenses. A further 14 UAVs were intercepted overnight. However, video and photographic evidence shows a significant explosion at a Transneft oil depot in Bryansk, and a separate incident involving a fire at a production facility (fire extinguished by emergency services), contradicting initial official reports of no damage or casualties. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast confirmed a fire at an industrial facility resulting from a drone strike. Video and photographic evidence shows significant damage to a Transneft oil refinery. Multiple sources confirm the attack and damage. An additional 14 UAVs were destroyed overnight in Bryansk Oblast. Reports indicate that two mainline locomotives servicing the Russian military were destroyed in a fire at a Bryansk railway depot on December 5th. A subsequent Ukrainian report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms a strike on the Bryansk oil depot on December 10th using unmanned systems. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine confirmed a strike on the Bryansk oil depot using unmanned systems. Further reports confirmed the Ukrainian strike on the Bryansk oil depot, resulting in a large fire. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the attack on the Bryansk oil depot.
Successful FPV Drone Strike on Ukrainian Electronic Warfare Station: A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station. Video evidence confirms the strike.
14th and 16th Special Forces Brigade Drone Operations: The 14th and 16th Special Forces Brigades conducted successful drone operations targeting enemy vehicles, field depots, and manpower near the Sukhie Yaly River and Serebryansk forest respectively. Video evidence supports this.
Russian Advance in Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have reportedly advanced into Sumy Oblast near the village of Aleksandria, south of the recently liberated Plyukhovo. Heavy fighting is reported in the area. This advance may be related to the difficulty of crossing the Psiol River near the Suja-Plyukhovo axis.
Continued Russian Advances in Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces continue to make gains in Donetsk Oblast, consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing towards other key locations like Scherbynivka and Leonidivka. Heavy fighting continues near Pokrovsk, with Russian forces achieving notable successes. In Kurakhovo, the capture of an elevator provides significant strategic advantage. Russian forces have effectively destroyed a Ukrainian grouping of forces between the villages of Elizavetovka and Uspenovka, south of Kurakhovo. Further reports indicate that Russian forces are consolidating control in the southern Kurakhovo district and that fighting continues in the city center. Russian forces have secured the southeastern part of Uspenovka, cutting off Ukrainian escape routes from Annivka. A Ukrainian grouping of forces south of Kurakhovo has been largely destroyed. Russian forces are making advancements near Toretsk, controlling the Zabalok district and the central mine along with its spoil heaps. They are advancing towards Scherbynivka and Leonidivka to the west. Near Pokrovsk, Russian forces have established control over the area north of Petrovka and continue to attack towards Dachnoye and Zelenoye. They are making advances near Novotroitskoye, and also south of Voznesenka. The advances are stretching Ukrainian forces and limiting their ability to transfer reinforcements. Russian forces captured five buildings in Volchansk and repelled a counterattack. Heavy fighting continues. A video shows Russian infantry burning and taking heavy casualties near Pokrovsk. Further reports indicate positional fighting near Krasnoarmeysk, shelling of Russian forward positions on the Krasnoarmeysk-Kurakhove railway and on the outskirts of Novyi Trud, and an advance of over 2km on the southern flank of Krasnoarmeysk. Further reports indicate active fighting around Ugledar, an infantry assault on Veselyi Hai, and a 3km advance north of Ugledar.
Reports of Ukrainian Demoralization in Kursk Oblast: A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast despite the presence of elite units.
Successful Russian Tank Engagement: A T-72B3M tank successfully destroyed a Ukrainian firing position with direct fire, clearing a path for advancing infantry through a minefield. This highlights the continuing effectiveness of combined arms tactics by the Russian military.
Additional Ukrainian Drone Losses: Reports indicate that 13 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Belgorod, Rostov, and Astrakhan regions, and a further 14 over Bryansk Oblast, further strengthening Russian air defenses. A report indicated that Russia destroyed ten UAVs over Bryansk Oblast.
VDV Personnel Changes: The Russian Ministry of Defense is planning to introduce deputy commander positions for logistics in airborne battalions.
Further VDV Successes: A successful FPV drone strike by the 56th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an M1 Abrams tank in Kursk Oblast. The 331st Regiment, 98th Airborne Division, eliminated a Ukrainian position ("Baba Yaga") on the Chasov Yar front. Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar, capturing a strongpoint despite Ukrainian use of cluster munitions. A video shows Russian forces breaking through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar after heavy shelling, taking a strategic position.
Yenakiieve Strike: A resident of Yenakiieve reports a strike on an ammunition depot, further highlighting continued attacks within occupied territories. The video shows a resident who is concealing their face, a common tactic in occupied areas, likely for fear of reprisal.
Antonovsky Bridge Skirmish: Reports indicate a firefight near the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast. Residents confirm intense shelling from both sides for approximately 3 hours.
Increased Attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Over the past 24 hours, there have been 268 attacks on 10 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, involving 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes. Damage has been reported to 33 buildings. A Russian quasi-ballistic missile (9M723-1 Iskander) strike hit a hospital complex in Zaporizhzhia, resulting in significant losses to Ukrainian personnel and the death of a high-ranking NATO official.
Remote Mine Laying in LNR: Ukrainian forces remotely laid mines in the Serebryansk forest, using cassette munitions and German anti-tank mines. A photo shows the aftermath of a minefield laid in the Serebryansk Forest with German mines and cassette munitions.
Ukrainian F-16 Deployment: Reports indicate that Ukrainian F-16s are based in Poland, with 7 already operational and flying missions over Ukraine, while additional aircraft are undergoing preparations. This signifies the ongoing Western military support for Ukraine. The US State Department approved a $266 million package for servicing Ukrainian F-16s. This package has been officially approved.
Belarus Deploys "Kulisas" Communication System: Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas," described as a Belarusian equivalent to Starlink. This demonstrates the ongoing technological advancements and reinforcement of Belarus's military capabilities.
Russia Offers Free IT Training: The Russian Ministry of Digital Development is offering free IT training to its citizens, aiming to address a significant shortage of IT professionals. While not directly related to the military, this indicates an attempt to strengthen its technological workforce.
Ukrainian Railways Raids: Raids are underway on Ukranian railway facilities in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast to stop an organized crime group operating within the railway system. Passengers should expect potential delays and disruptions.
Reports of Ukrainian Demoralization in Kursk Oblast: A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast despite the presence of elite units.
Arrest of Alexi Raumo: Alexi Raumo, former deputy director-general of the Karelian Development Corporation, was arrested in Petrozavodsk, Russia. He had previously left Russia due to geopolitical events and recently returned. This is a significant development suggesting internal political tensions or investigations within Russia and could impact Russia's internal resource allocation and focus.
Further Reports of Civilian Casualties: The death toll from the Zaporizhzhia hospital attack has risen to eight.
Allegations of war crimes committed by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast: A Russian battalion commander alleges that Ukrainian forces received orders for reprisals against civilians in Kursk Oblast. The source is a Russian battalion commander and requires further verification.
Attempt on the lives of Christo Grozev and Roman Dobrokhotov: A group of Bulgarian nationals were arrested in 2023 and charged with espionage for Russia, with plans to kidnap or possibly assassinate Christo Grozev and Roman Dobrokhotov.
Ukrainian assessment of the Taganrog attack: Ukrainian sources suggest the Taganrog attack involved either ATACMS missiles or a new Ukrainian drone, called "Palyanytsya".
Simultaneous drone strikes: Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target.
Destruction of a Russian command post: A Ukrainian drone strike destroyed a Russian command post, causing significant casualties.
Canadian aid package: The Canadian Parliament approved a ~$600 million direct military aid package for Ukraine, with additional funding for financial support and demining/cybersecurity.
Russian economic growth: Russian economic growth is projected at 3.9% for 2024.
Reported Ukrainian support for HTS: The Washington Post reported that Ukrainian intelligence services provided support to HTS rebels in Syria before their offensive against government forces. This involved the transfer of drone operators and drones. This was confirmed by other sources.
Severe damage to Mariupol's sanitation system: A video shows the severe damage to Mariupol's sanitation system due to the ongoing conflict.
Attempt on the life of a former South Korean defense minister: Kim Yong-hyun, the former South Korean defense minister, attempted suicide while in detention.
Russian recruitment efforts in Crimea: The FSB border guard recruitment video highlighted their advanced technology and readiness for operations.
Russian mobilization video: Videos of alleged Ukrainian mobilization efforts showed individuals being apprehended by authorities.
Removal of Christmas tree in occupied Petrivka: A Christmas tree installed in Petrivka was removed due to the tense security situation.
Syria seeks to resolve conflicts with all nations: A prominent Syrian opposition figure stated that Syria seeks to resolve differences with all countries, based on non-interference principles. He later stated that the new Syrian government will consider the issue of Russian military bases.
Increased Activity of Russian Tactical Aviation: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the southeastern direction of Ukraine, posing a threat to the use of air weapons in areas near the front. Ukrainian air forces reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeast. They also reported conducting guided air bomb strikes in the Donetsk region.
Guided Air Bomb Strikes: Ukrainian tactical aviation conducted guided air bomb strikes in Donetsk region.
Alleged Corruption in Ukrainian Military: Reports allege embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military, negatively impacting troop morale and operational effectiveness.
Potential for NATO Nuclear Weapons Deployment: A report in the National Interest suggests NATO may deploy B-61 nuclear bombs in Poland or Ukraine as a response to the deployment of Russian Oreshnik missiles.
Ukrainian Drone Strike on Bryansk Oil Depot: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed a strike on the Bryansk oil depot, resulting in a large fire and potential significant disruptions to Russian fuel supply lines. Multiple sources confirmed this strike, showing extensive fire damage.
Reports of Ukrainian Aid to HTS: Reports suggest Ukrainian aid to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels in Syria before their offensive against government forces, including the transfer of drone operators and drones. This was confirmed by multiple sources.
Overturned Bradley Fighting Vehicle: Video footage shows an overturned US-made M2A2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle, abandoned by Ukrainian forces.
Russian Response to US Aid to Ukraine: Maria Zakharova stated that the US aid to Ukraine is intended to prolong the conflict.
Sniper Duel: A video shows a successful sniper engagement by a commander from the Akhmat special forces, killing two Ukrainian snipers.
Forced Contract Signing in Chebarkul: A report details the fraudulent enlistment of seven conscripts in Chebarkul, forcing them to sign contracts under duress, highlighting issues with Russian military recruitment practices.
Low Morale and Illness in Ukrainian Forces: A captured Ukrainian soldier reports low morale, widespread food poisoning, and illnesses within his unit.
Potential for Increased US Sanctions on Russian Oil: Reports suggest that the Biden administration is considering imposing stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports before Trump's inauguration, potentially impacting global oil prices.
Ukrainian Drone Operations: A Ukrainian military unit successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone.
Significant Changes from Previous Reports:
All previous significant changes remain. In addition:
Summary Recommendations for Command:
All previous recommendations remain. The following are added:
Conclusion:
The operational environment remains exceptionally volatile and unpredictable. The intensified fighting in Ukraine, the crisis in Syria, and escalating geopolitical tensions demand a rapid and decisive strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close coordination are vital to navigate these challenges and mitigate risks. The potential for further escalation remains high, necessitating constant vigilance and adaptive strategies. The newly revealed intelligence regarding the attacks on Taganrog and Bryansk necessitates a reassessment of existing strategies and the development of comprehensive contingency plans. The significant increase in civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia demands immediate attention and a thorough review of targeting procedures to minimize further harm to civilians. The potential for further escalation, with the possible involvement of NATO nuclear weapons, necessitates an urgent and comprehensive contingency plan. The confirmed Ukrainian involvement in Syria significantly alters the strategic landscape, demanding a reassessment of alliances and the potential implications for the wider conflict. The loss of a Bradley Fighting Vehicle needs to be analyzed thoroughly to avoid future losses of critical equipment. The information warfare aspect of the conflict requires constant vigilance and proactive counter-measures to maintain public perception and support for the ongoing military actions. The reports of fraudulent enlistment in the Russian military and low morale among Ukrainian troops highlight internal vulnerabilities impacting both sides of the conflict. The potential for further escalation of sanctions against Russia's oil sector requires close monitoring and proactive mitigation strategies.
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