Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 11, 2024 (As of 04:49 UTC)

Key Developments:

The situation in Ukraine and Syria remains extremely volatile, with significant escalations across multiple fronts. Intense fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, with Russian advances reported around Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. Reports indicate high Ukrainian casualty rates, desertions, and low morale, exacerbated by widespread corruption (30 ongoing embezzlement investigations) and incompetent command. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel and are suffering from insufficient support and friendly fire incidents. A successful Ukrainian counter-attack in the Kurakhove region has been reported, with video evidence confirming tank engagements near Romaniivka and drone strikes near Kurakhovo. Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, including ballistic missile strikes on a medical facility and business center, resulted in civilian casualties. Further strikes on Yenakiieve prompted a mass evacuation. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, and that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads. Belarus has also tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine. Reports indicate increased satellite activity over Northwest Russia, suggesting potential Ukrainian preparation for strikes on Kursk Oblast. The village of Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces. Reports indicate that Russian forces have inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo. A military court in Russia has begun proceedings against Ukrainian soldiers who infiltrated Kursk Oblast. The court extended the pre-trial detention of seven soldiers for six months. Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk following the capture of Shevchenko. A new Russian offensive is underway near Toretsk. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces has raised the flag over the Kurakhove elevator. Russian forces have reportedly advanced into Sumy Oblast near the village of Aleksandria.

In Syria, the collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Numerous factions are vying for control, resulting in widespread violence, summary executions, and a major refugee crisis. Reports indicate war crimes committed by multiple actors. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, engaging in summary executions and looting. Syrian Islamists claim to have taken control of Deir ez-Zor, ousting the SDF Kurds. Israel's "Operation Shield of Bashan" has dramatically escalated the situation, involving widespread airstrikes that resulted in the near-total destruction of the Syrian navy and significant damage to the Syrian military. Video evidence released by Israel confirms the destruction of Syrian naval vessels. Russia is reportedly withdrawing its forces from Syria, although satellite imagery suggests some Russian naval vessels remain near Tartus. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria. Reports indicate increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families. Reports also suggest the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia and increased hunting of Alawites. An Iranian military advisor has claimed that Iran warned Syria about the impending Israeli attacks three months prior. Bashar al-Assad is currently in Russia. This has been confirmed by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. A video shows a long column of surrendering Syrian soldiers. The US has recommended that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) not seize complete control of Syria. Reports indicate that Israel destroyed a research institute in Damascus and that prominent Syrian scientists, Dr. Hamdi Ismail Nady and Sheikh Tawfiq al-Buti, were killed. Multiple images depicting significant damage to civilian structures in Damascus have been received and are being analyzed.

Multiple attacks against IAEA vehicles en route to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have been reported, although personnel were unharmed. An emergency meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors has been called to discuss the drone attack on an IAEA vehicle.

New Developments (since last report):

All previous developments remain. The following are new developments based on the information provided:

• Taganrog Attack: A reported missile or drone strike on Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, resulted in damage to an industrial facility (the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex), a boiler plant resulting in the loss of heat to 27 apartment buildings, and the burning of 14 vehicles. Multiple sources confirm the attack and damage. Reports initially indicated no casualties, but this requires further verification. Civilian video footage confirms multiple explosions and shows burning vehicles. Reports suggest four missiles struck the target. The conflicting reports (missile vs. drone) necessitate a thorough investigation. Multiple sources now confirm damage to the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex.

• Bryansk Oblast Drone Attacks and Explosion: Ten UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by Russian air defenses. A further 14 UAVs were intercepted overnight. However, video and photographic evidence shows a significant explosion at a Transneft oil depot in Bryansk, and a separate incident involving a fire at a production facility (fire extinguished by emergency services), contradicting initial official reports of no damage or casualties. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast confirmed a fire at an industrial facility resulting from a drone strike. Video and photographic evidence shows significant damage to a Transneft oil refinery. Multiple sources confirm the attack and damage.

• Successful FPV Drone Strike on Ukrainian Electronic Warfare Station: A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station. Video evidence confirms the strike.

• 14th and 16th Special Forces Brigade Drone Operations: The 14th and 16th Special Forces Brigades conducted successful drone operations targeting enemy vehicles, field depots, and manpower near the Sukhie Yaly River and Serebryansk forest respectively. Video evidence supports this.

• Russian Advance in Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have reportedly advanced into Sumy Oblast near the village of Aleksandria, south of the recently liberated Plyukhovo. Heavy fighting is reported in the area. This advance may be related to the difficulty of crossing the Psiol River near the Suja-Plyukhovo axis.

• Continued Russian Advances in Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces continue to make gains in Donetsk Oblast, consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing towards other key locations like Scherbynivka and Leonidivka. Heavy fighting continues near Pokrovsk, with Russian forces achieving notable successes. In Kurakhovo, the capture of an elevator provides significant strategic advantage. Russian forces have effectively destroyed a Ukrainian grouping of forces between the villages of Elizavetovka and Uspenovka, south of Kurakhovo.

• Reports of Ukrainian Demoralization in Kursk Oblast: A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast despite the presence of elite units.

• Potential for further escalation remains high, necessitating constant vigilance and adaptive strategies. Trump's potential attempt to renegotiate Ukraine's credit, potentially lifting sanctions freezing Russian Central Bank assets, is a significant geopolitical development. This would drastically change the funding and support landscape for Ukraine.

• Successful Russian Tank Engagement: A T-72B3M tank successfully destroyed a Ukrainian firing position with direct fire, clearing a path for advancing infantry through a minefield. This highlights the continuing effectiveness of combined arms tactics by the Russian military.

• Additional Ukrainian Drone Losses: Reports indicate that 13 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Belgorod, Rostov, and Astrakhan regions, and a further 14 over Bryansk Oblast, further strengthening Russian air defenses.

• VDV Personnel Changes: The Russian Ministry of Defense is planning to introduce deputy commander positions for logistics in airborne battalions.

• Further VDV Successes: A successful FPV drone strike by the 56th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an M1 Abrams tank in Kursk Oblast. The 331st Regiment, 98th Airborne Division, eliminated a Ukrainian position ("Baba Yaga") on the Chasov Yar front.

• Resumption of Flights between Damascus and Moscow: Sham Wings has resumed flights between Damascus and Moscow.

Significant Changes from Previous Reports:

All previous significant changes remain. In addition:

• The attacks on Taganrog and Bryansk represent a significant escalation and require immediate assessment. The potential targeting of major industrial facilities raises concerns about the intent and capabilities of the attackers. Multiple sources confirm significant damage. The specific targeting of the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex is a notable escalation, potentially indicating an attempt to disrupt Russian military production. The damage to the boiler plant in Taganrog has resulted in the loss of heating for 27 apartment buildings.
• The confirmation of the destruction of a Ukrainian electronic warfare station highlights the ongoing effectiveness of Russian drone operations.
• Confirmation of significant damage to a Transneft oil facility in Bryansk contradicts official Russian reports and indicates a potentially significant disruption to Russia's energy infrastructure. Multiple sources corroborate this.
• The reported Russian advance into Sumy Oblast represents a significant territorial gain.
• Continued Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast underscore the ongoing intensity of the fighting, with the near-total destruction of a Ukrainian force near Kurakhovo.
• The report on Ukrainian demoralization in Kursk Oblast suggests a possible shift in the balance of power in that sector.
• The reports of additional Russian successes, including a successful tank engagement and further VDV drone strikes, indicate sustained Russian military effectiveness. The introduction of deputy commander positions for logistics in VDV battalions suggests an effort to improve efficiency and supply chain issues.
• Trump's potential actions regarding Ukraine's credit and sanctions against Russia represent a major geopolitical shift, requiring immediate assessment of its impact on the conflict's trajectory.
• The reported assassination of prominent Syrian scientists and the destruction of a research institute in Damascus represent a significant escalation of the Syrian conflict and requires further analysis.

Summary Recommendations for Command:

All previous recommendations remain. The following are added:

1. Immediate Investigation of Taganrog and Bryansk Attacks: A thorough investigation is required to determine the type of munition used, the target, and the extent of the damage and casualties. Analyze all available video and photographic evidence. Corroborate findings with multiple sources. Focus on determining the nature of the attack on the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex and the impact of damage to the boiler plant.

2. Assessment of Damage to Russian Infrastructure: Evaluate the impact of the damage to the Transneft oil refinery in Bryansk on Russia's energy supply and overall economic stability. Assess the long-term consequences.

3. Analyze the effectiveness of the FPV drone strike on the Ukrainian EW station: Integrate this intelligence into tactical and strategic planning. Consider broader implications for EW capabilities.

4. Increased Counter-Drone Measures in Rostov and Bryansk Oblasts: Enhance air defense systems and counter-drone capabilities to mitigate the risk of future attacks on critical infrastructure in the region. Prioritize protection of energy infrastructure.

5. Assess the strategic implications of the Russian advance into Sumy Oblast. Evaluate potential further advances and assess the impact on Ukrainian supply lines.

6. Re-evaluate operational strategies in Donetsk Oblast in light of recent Russian gains. Assess the effectiveness of current Ukrainian defensive strategies.

7. Further analysis of the reported Ukrainian demoralization in Kursk Oblast. Determine whether this report represents a localized phenomenon or a broader trend.

8. Assess the geopolitical implications of Trump's potential actions: Evaluate the potential impact of a renegotiation of Ukrainian credit and the lifting of sanctions on Russian Central Bank assets. Develop contingency plans to account for potentially decreased Western support for Ukraine.

9. Analyze Russian combined arms tactics: Study the successful tank engagement to identify vulnerabilities and improve countermeasures.

10. Assess the effectiveness of updated VDV structure: Determine how the introduction of deputy commander positions for logistics will impact their effectiveness.

11. Analyze the implications of the reported assassinations of prominent Syrian scientists and the damage to the research institute in Damascus. Assess the potential impact on Syrian stability and regional power dynamics.

12. Monitor the resumption of flights between Damascus and Moscow and its impact on the Syrian refugee situation and potential for further unrest in Syria.

Conclusion:

The operational environment remains exceptionally volatile and unpredictable. The intensified fighting in Ukraine, the crisis in Syria, and escalating geopolitical tensions demand a rapid and decisive strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close coordination are vital to navigate these challenges and mitigate risks. The potential for further escalation remains high, necessitating constant vigilance and adaptive strategies. The newly revealed intelligence regarding the attacks on Taganrog and Bryansk necessitates a reassessment of existing strategies and the development of comprehensive contingency plans. The potential impact of the attack on the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex, combined with the potential for reduced Western support following Trump's potential actions and the further escalation of the Syrian conflict, necessitates a critical reassessment of the strategic situation. The ongoing war crimes and attacks on civilian infrastructure, especially those targeting international organizations, need strong condemnation and increased monitoring. The potential impact of damage to critical Russian infrastructure needs to be carefully considered. The potential shift in the funding and support landscape for Ukraine due to Trump's potential actions represents a major turning point in the conflict, which requires careful monitoring and proactive adaptation.