Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 11, 2024 (As of 03:20 UTC)

Key Developments:

The situation in Ukraine and Syria remains extremely volatile, with significant escalations across multiple fronts. Intense fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, with Russian advances reported around Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. Reports indicate high Ukrainian casualty rates, desertions, and low morale, exacerbated by widespread corruption (30 ongoing embezzlement investigations) and incompetent command. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel and are suffering from insufficient support and friendly fire incidents. A successful Ukrainian counter-attack in the Kurakhove region has been reported, with video evidence confirming tank engagements near Romaniivka and drone strikes near Kurakhovo. Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, including ballistic missile strikes on a medical facility and business center, resulted in civilian casualties. Further strikes on Yenakiieve prompted a mass evacuation. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, and that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads. Belarus has also tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine. Reports indicate increased satellite activity over Northwest Russia, suggesting potential Ukrainian preparation for strikes on Kursk Oblast. The village of Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces. Reports indicate that Russian forces have inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo. A military court in Russia has begun proceedings against Ukrainian soldiers who infiltrated Kursk Oblast. The court extended the pre-trial detention of seven soldiers for six months. Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk following the capture of Shevchenko. A new Russian offensive is underway near Toretsk. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces has raised the flag over the Kurakhove elevator.

In Syria, the collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Numerous factions are vying for control, resulting in widespread violence, summary executions, and a major refugee crisis. Reports indicate war crimes committed by multiple actors. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, engaging in summary executions and looting. Syrian Islamists claim to have taken control of Deir ez-Zor, ousting the SDF Kurds. Israel's "Operation Shield of Bashan" has dramatically escalated the situation, involving widespread airstrikes that resulted in the near-total destruction of the Syrian navy and significant damage to the Syrian military. Video evidence released by Israel confirms the destruction of Syrian naval vessels. Russia is reportedly withdrawing its forces from Syria, although satellite imagery suggests some Russian naval vessels remain. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria. Reports indicate increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families. Reports also suggest the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia and increased hunting of Alawites. An Iranian military advisor has claimed that Iran warned Syria about the impending Israeli attacks three months prior. Bashar al-Assad is currently in Russia. This has been confirmed by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. A video shows a long column of surrendering Syrian soldiers.

Multiple attacks against IAEA vehicles en route to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have been reported, although personnel were unharmed. An emergency meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors has been called to discuss the drone attack on an IAEA vehicle.

New Developments (since last report):

All previous developments remain. The following are new developments based on the information provided:

• Taganrog Attack: A reported missile or drone strike on Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, resulted in damage to an industrial facility (possibly the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex) and the burning of 14 vehicles. Initial reports indicate no casualties, but this requires further verification. Civilian video footage confirms multiple explosions. Additional video footage provides a clearer view of the event. The conflicting reports (missile vs. drone) necessitate a thorough investigation.
• Bryansk Oblast Drone Attacks and Explosion: Ten UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by Russian air defenses. However, video and photographic evidence shows a significant explosion at a Transneft oil depot in Bryansk, and a separate incident involving a fire at a production facility (fire extinguished by emergency services), contradicting initial official reports of no damage or casualties. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast confirmed a fire at an industrial facility resulting from a drone strike. Video and photographic evidence shows significant damage to a Transneft oil refinery.
• Successful FPV Drone Strike on Ukrainian Electronic Warfare Station: A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station. Video evidence confirms the strike.
• 14th and 16th Special Forces Brigade Drone Operations: The 14th and 16th Special Forces Brigades conducted successful drone operations targeting enemy vehicles, field depots, and manpower near the Sukhie Yaly River and Serebryansk forest respectively. Video evidence supports this.

Significant Changes from Previous Reports:

All previous significant changes remain. In addition:

• The attack on Taganrog represents a significant escalation and requires immediate assessment. The potential targeting of a major industrial facility raises concerns about the intent and capabilities of the attackers.
• The confirmation of the destruction of a Ukrainian electronic warfare station highlights the ongoing effectiveness of Russian drone operations.
• Confirmation of significant damage to a Transneft oil facility in Bryansk contradicts official Russian reports and indicates a potentially significant disruption to Russia's energy infrastructure.

Summary Recommendations for Command: All previous recommendations remain. The following are added:

1. Immediate Investigation of Taganrog Attack: A thorough investigation is required to determine the type of munition used, the target, and the extent of the damage and casualties. Analyze all available video and photographic evidence.
2. Assessment of Damage to Russian Infrastructure: Evaluate the impact of the damage to the Transneft oil refinery in Bryansk on Russia's energy supply and overall economic stability.
3. Analyze the effectiveness of the FPV drone strike on the Ukrainian EW station: Integrate this intelligence into tactical and strategic planning.
4. Increased Counter-Drone Measures in Rostov Oblast: Enhance air defense systems and counter-drone capabilities to mitigate the risk of future attacks on critical infrastructure in the region.

Conclusion:

The operational environment remains exceptionally volatile and unpredictable. The intensified fighting in Ukraine, the crisis in Syria, and escalating geopolitical tensions demand a rapid and decisive strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close coordination are vital to navigate these challenges and mitigate risks. The potential for further escalation remains high, necessitating constant vigilance and adaptive strategies. The newly revealed intelligence regarding the attacks on Taganrog and Bryansk necessitate a reassessment of existing strategies and the development of comprehensive contingency plans. The ongoing war crimes and attacks on civilian infrastructure, especially those targeting international organizations, need strong condemnation and increased monitoring. The potential impact of damage to critical Russian infrastructure needs to be carefully considered.