Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 10, 2024 (As of 23:16 UTC)

Key Developments:

The situation in Ukraine and Syria remains extremely volatile, marked by intensified fighting, escalating drone warfare, and significant humanitarian concerns. The Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine continues its rapid advance, resulting in substantial territorial gains and heavy Ukrainian casualties. The situation around Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk remains critical, with reports of potential encirclements, extremely high Ukrainian casualty rates, desertions, and widespread low morale. A new Russian offensive is underway near Toretsk. Russian forces have taken Zolote and Zheltoye in the Donetsk People's Republic and are advancing in the Kurahov area, with fighting occurring in the town center and near Uspenivka, with a reported push towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye. Reports of intensified fighting around Kurakhove, with Russian forces crossing the Vovcha River and engaging near the Kurahov thermal power plant, effectively cutting off a key Ukrainian supply route. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces has raised the flag over the Kurakhove elevator. A successful Russian counter-attack in the Kurakhove region has been reported. Video evidence of Ukrainian tank engagements near Romaniivka and Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo has been confirmed. Video showing Russian forces in the area of Kurakhove’s elevator has been released. A Ukrainian POW, Zuev Aleksandr Aleksandrovich, described insufficient support and friendly fire incidents, further highlighting command and control issues. Reports indicate fighting in Dzerzhinsk and Russian advances towards Scherbinovka. A new report indicates that Ukrainian artillery has set a new world record for long-range strikes in active combat (70km). A video shows the assault of Russian forces on a Ukrainian position near Kurakhovo. Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant and within the city's multi-story buildings. Reports suggest that organized Ukrainian resistance is weakening. Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, including multiple ballistic missile strikes on a medical facility and a business center, resulted in at least five deaths and twenty-five injuries, with reports indicating possibly eight more trapped under rubble in the initial strike. A private clinic and a nearby cafe were destroyed. A Russian airstrike on Yenakiieve using cluster munitions destroyed several buildings and caused multiple civilian casualties. Subsequent strikes on Yenakiieve prompted a mass evacuation, and the number of injured continues to rise. Reports reveal widespread corruption within the Ukrainian military, hindering efforts to build effective defensive lines; 30 criminal investigations into alleged embezzlement totaling $483 million are underway. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel, relying on local authorities and infantry brigades for fortifications, with many engineering personnel deployed to frontline positions.

In Syria, the complete collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Numerous factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are vying for control, resulting in widespread summary executions and a major refugee crisis. Reports indicate summary executions and war crimes by multiple actors, including the confirmed presence of rape and torture by Russian occupiers. Public executions are reported. Syrian Islamists claim to have taken control of Deir ez-Zor, ousting the SDF Kurds. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, engaging in summary executions and looting. A representative from the Syrian opposition's political directorate stated Syria will work with neighbors and friends considering mutual interests. Hundreds of civilians have been killed and injured in Syria over the past two weeks, according to the UN. Israel's large-scale military strikes, culminating in the complete destruction of the Syrian navy and the elimination of 70-80% of the Assad regime's military capabilities, have dramatically escalated the situation, potentially triggering further regional instability. The operation, codenamed "Operation Shield of Bashan," involved approximately 350 aircraft delivering approximately 320 airstrikes across Syria. Dozens of aircraft and helicopters, radar systems, air defense systems, 15 naval vessels, ballistic missiles (including Scud), cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, drones, and weapons storage facilities and production facilities were destroyed. The operation is ongoing. Turkey has condemned the Israeli strikes, accusing Israel of violating Syria's territorial integrity. Russia is reportedly conducting a large-scale withdrawal of its forces from Syria, with some units being evacuated under duress from areas controlled by Kurdish forces. A video shows a long column of surrendering Syrian soldiers. However, satellite imagery suggests Russian naval vessels remain in Syrian waters, though not at the Tartus base. A new report from Operation Z: Voenkorov Russkoi Vesny confirms that Russian naval vessels have not left Syrian waters and are conducting exercises near the coast. Israel has confirmed the destruction of Syrian naval vessels and intends to defend its security interests while avoiding Syrian internal affairs, but will respond resolutely to hostile acts from the new Syrian government. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria, whose stated goal is to prevent the collapse of the Syrian state. Reports indicate increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families over lack of support. Reports that the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. Bashar al-Assad is reported to be in Russia, confirmed by Sergey Ryabkov. Reports indicate increased hunting of Alawites, including high-ranking officials and their relatives. A committee is being formed to amend the Syrian constitution. Syrian authorities have stated that they will not allow any part of Syria to fall outside of Damascus' control.

Civilian casualties continue to rise sharply in both Ukraine and Syria, necessitating urgent humanitarian intervention. The deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and private clinics, is a grave concern. Reports indicate a drone strike targeted an IAEA vehicle traveling to the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant; the vehicle's armored plating prevented casualties, though a subsequent strike on an IAEA convoy resulted in significant damage to one vehicle, though no casualties. Another drone strike on an IAEA vehicle en route to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has also been confirmed. Multiple attacks against IAEA vehicles have been reported. Rafael Grossi has condemned the attacks as unacceptable. A further attack on an IAEA vehicle en route to the ZNPP has been reported; personnel were unharmed.

Intense information warfare continues, demanding a robust counter-information effort. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets (MiG-29 and Su-27) to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, reported by U.S. sources. Further, Lukashenko has claimed that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads. Belarus has tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine. Reports also indicate that Russia is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. Families of Wagner Group mercenaries are complaining about the lack of support from the Russian government for those killed in action. Reports indicate increased satellite activity over Northwest Russia, suggesting potential Ukrainian preparation for strikes on Kursk Oblast. The village of Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces, with video footage showing significant damage and civilian casualties. Reports indicate that Russian forces have inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo. A video shows a sniper duel where a Chechen commander killed two Ukrainian snipers. A Ukrainian drone strike near the border with Russia targeted an Orlan drone, successfully destroying it. A fire at a lyceum in Podolsk, Russia, is reported to have engulfed the roof of the building. A resident of St. Petersburg was detained for falsely reporting the mining of the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant. A new report from Operation Z indicates that a Russian drone ("Knyaz Vandal") successfully intercepted and destroyed a Ukrainian FPV drone. Reports suggest Zelenskyy's refusal to lower the conscription age to 18 has strained relations with the Biden administration.

Significant Changes from Previous Reports:

• Increased Drone Warfare: The widespread use of FPV drones by both sides is significantly altering battlefield tactics and increasing the risk to both sides. This includes the use of drones for targeted strikes and delivery of small explosive devices. Ukraine reports receiving 230 additional drones, bringing the total to 125,754 FPV drones. A successful Russian drone interception of a Ukrainian FPV drone has been reported. The vulnerability of expensive military hardware to low-cost drones is highlighted.
• Potential IED Threat: An image suggests a possible IED threat involving a vehicle with suspicious markings ("LAND NOW," "RUSORIZ," "BOMB ARMED"). Further investigation is required.
• Lyceum Fire in Podolsk: A major fire at a lyceum in Podolsk, Russia, raises concerns about potential collateral damage or a targeted attack.
• False Mining Report at LNPP: A St. Petersburg resident was detained for falsely reporting the mining of the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant, highlighting vulnerabilities to disinformation attacks.
• Continued Intense Fighting: The fighting around Kurakhovo intensifies, with Russian forces attempting to encircle Ukrainian units near the Kurakhov thermal power plant and within the city's multi-story buildings. Reports suggest that organized Ukrainian resistance is weakening.
• High Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia and Yenakiieve: The ongoing shelling and missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia and Yenakiieve continue to result in high numbers of civilian casualties. Rescue efforts in Zaporizhzhia have saved two women from under rubble.
• Belarus Acquires "Kulisa" Communication System: Belarus has added the "Kulisa" mobile communications system to its military arsenal, a Belarusian analogue to Starlink.
• Russian Naval Vessels Remain Near Syrian Coast: Despite initial reports, satellite imagery suggests Russian naval vessels remain near the Syrian coast, conducting exercises. This has been confirmed by additional reporting from Operation Z.
• Allegations of War Crimes: An elderly woman in Selidovo has made allegations of Ukrainian forces killing civilians. Verification is required. Additional allegations of war crimes by Ukrainian forces in Selidovo have been reported.
• UXO Discovery: Images suggest the discovery of unexploded ordnance in a grassy area, requiring immediate attention for safety.
• Ukraine Using AI for UXO Detection: Ukrainian forces are training an AI (UltraliticsYOLOv8) to analyze drone imagery for mine detection.
• Russian Naval Exercises: Russian naval vessels are reported to be conducting exercises near the Syrian coast.
• Czech Republic's Sanctions Exception: The Czech Republic is likely to maintain its EU sanctions exception for Russian oil products due to pressure from Slovakia.
• Armed Opposition Seizes Deir ez-Zor: Armed opposition forces in Syria have reportedly taken control of Deir ez-Zor.
• Bryansk Oil Refinery Fire: Reports and images indicate a major fire at a Transneft oil refinery in Bryansk, Russia, possibly due to a drone attack resulting in multiple explosions. Several videos and images depict the fire and explosion. Local residents reported hearing between 6 and 10 explosions. Reports suggest that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) were responsible.
• Zelenskyy-Biden Relationship Strained: Reports suggest Zelenskyy's refusal to lower the conscription age to 18 has strained relations with the Biden administration.
• US Approval of F-16 Maintenance Equipment Sale to Ukraine: The US State Department has approved the sale of F-16 maintenance equipment to Ukraine, valued at approximately $266.4 million.
• Trump's Stance on Ukraine Negotiations: Viktor Orbán stated that Donald Trump is currently unable to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine due to legal restrictions in the US, but anticipates positive effects once he assumes office in January.

Summary Recommendations for Command:

All previous recommendations remain highly relevant and need immediate attention. The new information necessitates a significant reassessment of strategic priorities. The following areas require particular focus:

1. Immediate Response to the Potential IED Threat: The image suggesting a potential IED requires immediate investigation and response to neutralize the threat.
2. Investigation of Lyceum Fire: Thorough investigation is required to determine the cause of the fire in Podolsk, assessing potential implications for military operations and civilian safety.
3. Counter-Disinformation Measures: Enhance counter-disinformation strategies to mitigate the impact of false reports like the one concerning the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant.
4. Reinforcement of Eastern Ukraine Defenses: Continue to reinforce defenses around Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and other threatened areas, preparing for potential encirclement scenarios, taking into account the increased effectiveness of drone warfare.
5. Addressing Logistical Failures and Low Morale: Focus on enhancing supply chains, improving communication, and addressing the factors contributing to low morale within the Ukrainian military.
6. Regional Stability in Syria: Develop contingency plans for the ongoing Syrian crisis, considering the potential for regional conflict and refugee flows. Monitor the presence of Russian naval assets near the Syrian coast. Address the fall of Deir ez-Zor to opposition forces.
7. Assessment of the Belarusian "Kulisa" System: Evaluate the strategic implications of Belarus acquiring the "Kulisa" communication system.
8. Investigation of War Crimes Allegations: Thoroughly investigate allegations of war crimes committed by both sides, ensuring accountability.
9. UXO Clearance Operations: Prioritize UXO clearance operations to ensure the safety of personnel and civilians. Utilize AI-assisted detection methods where possible.
10. Analysis of Russian Naval Activity: Closely monitor the position and activities of Russian naval assets near Syrian shores.
11. Analysis of Drone Warfare: Closely analyze the effectiveness of both Ukrainian and Russian drone operations and adapt strategies accordingly. Address the successful Ukrainian drone attack on the Bryansk oil refinery and the increased use of FPV drones in both offensive and defensive roles.
12. Addressing the Ukraine-US rift: Address the potential ramifications of the strained relationship between the Ukrainian and US governments.
13. Assessment of the Bryansk Oil Refinery Attack: Assess the strategic implications of the attack on the Transneft oil refinery in Bryansk, including potential escalatory effects.
14. Integration of F-16 Maintenance Equipment: Plan for the effective integration of newly acquired F-16 maintenance equipment into Ukrainian Air Force operations.

Conclusion:

The operational environment remains extremely volatile and unpredictable. The intensified fighting in eastern Ukraine, the ongoing crisis in Syria, and escalating tensions in other regions necessitate a rapid and decisive strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close coordination between military, intelligence, and humanitarian organizations are critical to navigate these challenges and mitigate the risks. The potential for further escalation remains high. The emergence of new technologies, such as AI-assisted UXO detection and the Belarusian "Kulisa" system, and the proliferation of FPV drones, require ongoing assessment and integration into strategic planning. The humanitarian crisis, with increasing civilian casualties, requires immediate attention and the allocation of substantial resources. The ongoing information warfare campaign requires a robust counter-narrative and the verification of information from all sources. The successful attack on the Bryansk oil refinery represents a significant escalation and requires immediate assessment of its potential ramifications. The strained relationship between Ukraine and the US requires immediate diplomatic efforts to prevent further damage. The increased use of FPV drones necessitates a reassessment of defense strategies and the development of effective countermeasures.