Archived operational intelligence briefing
Key Developments:
The situation in Ukraine and Syria remains extremely volatile, marked by significant escalations and rapid deteriorations across multiple fronts. The Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine continues its rapid advance, resulting in substantial territorial gains and heavy Ukrainian casualties. The situation around Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk remains critical, with reports of potential encirclements, extremely high Ukrainian casualty rates, desertions, and widespread low morale. A Ukrainian military assessment points to chaotic battlespace conditions and severe incompetence at the command level directly contributing to these losses. Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk following the capture of Shevchenko. A new Russian offensive is underway near Toretsk. Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, including multiple ballistic missile strikes on a medical facility and a business center, resulted in at least four deaths and twenty injuries, with reports indicating possibly eight more trapped under rubble in the initial strike. A private clinic and a nearby cafe were destroyed. Zelenskyy confirmed the rising death toll in Zaporizhzhia, and a rescue operation is underway. Further missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia have increased the number of injured to fourteen, with one in critical condition; two doctors are among the injured. A Russian airstrike on Yenakiieve using cluster munitions destroyed several buildings and caused multiple civilian casualties. Subsequent strikes on Yenakiieve prompted a mass evacuation, and the number of injured continues to rise. Reports reveal widespread corruption within the Ukrainian military, hindering efforts to build effective defensive lines; 30 criminal investigations into alleged embezzlement totaling $483 million are underway. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel, relying on local authorities and infantry brigades for fortifications, with many engineering personnel deployed to frontline positions. Russian forces have taken Zolote and Zheltoye in the Donetsk People's Republic. Reports indicate that Russian forces are advancing in the Kurahov area, with fighting occurring in the town center and near Uspenivka, with a reported push towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye. Reports of intensified fighting around Kurakhove, with Russian forces crossing the Vovcha River and engaging near the Kurahov thermal power plant, effectively cutting off a key Ukrainian supply route. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces has raised the flag over the Kurakhove elevator. Reports of multiple successful drone strikes by Russian forces near the border of the Kursk region. Confirmation that the Russian government is actively engaging in peace negotiations with multiple foreign partners, but insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region. Reports from the Polish defense minister stating that the Russian military offensive has significantly accelerated. Reports indicating that the Ukrainian military has successfully tested a new missile called “Ruta,” and that the “Palyanytsya” missile is in mass production, and that the “Peklo” drone missile has been successfully deployed. Zelenskyy’s request for 10-12 additional Patriot systems to enhance Ukrainian air defenses. Reports suggest that current mobilization efforts in Ukraine are insufficient to cover losses. The lowering of the draft age to 18 is being considered, with the US stating that they and their allies will be willing to provide the equipment and training for such new forces. Reports indicate significant morale issues and internal conflict within the Ukrainian military, including a reported incident of fratricide. A successful Russian counter-attack in the Kurakhove region has been reported. Video evidence of Ukrainian tank engagements near Romaniivka and Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo has been confirmed. Video showing Russian forces in the area of Kurakhove’s elevator has been released. A Ukrainian POW, Zuev Aleksandr Aleksandrovich, described insufficient support and friendly fire incidents, further highlighting command and control issues. Air raid sirens were sounded in Zaporizhzhia, and subsequently lifted. Reports indicate fighting in Dzerzhinsk and Russian advances towards Scherbinovka. A new report indicates that Ukrainian artillery has set a new world record for long-range strikes in active combat (70km). A video shows the assault of Russian forces on a Ukrainian position near Kurakhovo. Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant and within the city's multi-story buildings.
In Syria, the complete collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Numerous factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are vying for control, resulting in widespread summary executions and a major refugee crisis. Reports indicate summary executions and war crimes by multiple actors, including the confirmed presence of rape and torture by Russian occupiers. Public executions are reported. Israel's large-scale military strikes, culminating in the complete destruction of the Syrian navy and the elimination of 70-80% of the Assad regime's military capabilities, have dramatically escalated the situation, potentially triggering further regional instability. The operation, codenamed "Operation Shield of Bashan," involved approximately 350 aircraft delivering approximately 320 airstrikes across Syria. Dozens of aircraft and helicopters, radar systems, air defense systems, 15 naval vessels, ballistic missiles (including Scud), cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, drones, and weapons storage facilities and production facilities were destroyed. The operation is ongoing. Turkey has condemned the Israeli strikes, accusing Israel of violating Syria's territorial integrity. Hundreds of civilians have been killed and injured in Syria over the past two weeks, according to the UN. The UN reported that 75 civilians have been killed and hundreds injured in Syria over the past two weeks. Russia is reportedly conducting a large-scale withdrawal of its forces from Syria, with some units being evacuated under duress from areas controlled by Kurdish forces. A video shows a long column of surrendering Syrian soldiers. Israel has confirmed the destruction of Syrian naval vessels and intends to defend its security interests while avoiding Syrian internal affairs, but will respond resolutely to hostile acts from the new Syrian government. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, engaging in summary executions and looting. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he approved the airstrikes to prevent the captured equipment from falling into the hands of jihadists. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria, whose stated goal is to prevent the collapse of the Syrian state. Reports indicate increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families over lack of support. Reports that the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. Bashar al-Assad is reported to be in Russia, confirmed by Sergey Ryabkov. Reports indicate increased hunting of Alawites, including high-ranking officials and their relatives. Syrian Islamists claim to have taken control of Deir ez-Zor, ousting the SDF Kurds.
Civilian casualties continue to rise sharply in both Ukraine and Syria, necessitating urgent humanitarian intervention. The deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and private clinics, is a grave concern. Reports indicate a drone strike targeted an IAEA vehicle traveling to the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant; the vehicle's armored plating prevented casualties, though a subsequent strike on an IAEA convoy resulted in significant damage to one vehicle, though no casualties. Another drone strike on an IAEA vehicle en route to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has also been confirmed. Multiple attacks against IAEA vehicles have been reported. Rafael Grossi has condemned the attacks as unacceptable. A further attack on an IAEA vehicle en route to the ZNPP has been reported; personnel were unharmed.
Intense information warfare continues, demanding a robust counter-information effort. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets (MiG-29 and Su-27) to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, reported by U.S. sources. Further, Lukashenko has claimed that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads. Belarus has tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine. Reports also indicate that Russia is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. Families of Wagner Group mercenaries are complaining about the lack of support from the Russian government for those killed in action. Reports indicate increased satellite activity over Northwest Russia, suggesting potential Ukrainian preparation for strikes on Kursk Oblast. The village of Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces, with video footage showing significant damage and civilian casualties. Reports indicate that Russian forces have inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo. A video shows a sniper duel where a Chechen commander killed two Ukrainian snipers. A Ukrainian drone strike near the border with Russia targeted an Orlan drone, successfully destroying it. A fire at a lyceum in Podolsk, Russia, is reported to have engulfed the roof of the building. A resident of St. Petersburg was detained for falsely reporting the mining of the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant.
Significant Changes from Previous Reports:
Summary Recommendations for Command:
All previous recommendations remain highly relevant and need immediate attention. The new information necessitates a significant reassessment of strategic priorities. The following areas require particular focus:
Conclusion:
The operational environment remains extremely volatile and unpredictable. The intensified fighting in eastern Ukraine, the ongoing crisis in Syria, and escalating tensions in other regions necessitate a rapid and decisive strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close coordination between military, intelligence, and humanitarian organizations are critical to navigate these challenges and mitigate the risks. The potential for further escalation remains high.
We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.
Learn more in our Privacy Policy.
