Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 10, 2024 (As of 20:48 UTC)

Key Developments:

The situation in Ukraine and Syria remains extremely volatile, marked by significant escalations and rapid deteriorations across multiple fronts. The Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine continues its rapid advance, resulting in substantial territorial gains and heavy Ukrainian casualties. The situation around Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk remains critical, with reports of potential encirclements, extremely high Ukrainian casualty rates, desertions, and widespread low morale. A Ukrainian military assessment points to chaotic battlespace conditions and severe incompetence at the command level directly contributing to these losses. Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk following the capture of Shevchenko. A new Russian offensive is underway near Toretsk. Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, including multiple ballistic missile strikes on a medical facility and a business center, resulted in at least four deaths and twenty injuries, with reports indicating possibly eight more trapped under rubble in the initial strike. A private clinic and a nearby cafe were destroyed. Zelenskyy confirmed the rising death toll in Zaporizhzhia, and a rescue operation is underway. Reports reveal widespread corruption within the Ukrainian military, hindering efforts to build effective defensive lines; 30 criminal investigations into alleged embezzlement totaling $483 million are underway. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel, relying on local authorities and infantry brigades for fortifications, with many engineering personnel deployed to frontline positions. Russian forces have taken Zolote, in the Donetsk People's Republic. Reports indicate that Russian forces are advancing in the Kurahov area, with fighting occurring in the town center and near Uspenivka, with a reported push towards the outskirts of Konstantinopolskoye. Reports of intensified fighting around Kurakhove, with Russian forces crossing the Vovcha River and engaging near the Kurahov thermal power plant, effectively cutting off a key Ukrainian supply route. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces has raised the flag over the Kurakhove elevator. Reports of multiple successful drone strikes by Russian forces near the border of the Kursk region. Confirmation that the Russian government is actively engaging in peace negotiations with multiple foreign partners, but insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region. Reports from the Polish defense minister stating that the Russian military offensive has significantly accelerated. Reports indicating that the Ukrainian military has successfully tested a new missile called “Ruta,” and that the “Palyanytsya” missile is in mass production, and that the “Peklo” drone missile has been successfully deployed. Zelenskyy’s request for 10-12 additional Patriot systems to enhance Ukrainian air defenses. Reports suggest that current mobilization efforts in Ukraine are insufficient to cover losses. The lowering of the draft age to 18 is being considered, with the US stating that they and their allies will be willing to provide the equipment and training for such new forces. Reports indicate significant morale issues and internal conflict within the Ukrainian military, including a reported incident of fratricide. A successful Russian counter-attack in the Kurakhove region has been reported. Video evidence of Ukrainian tank engagements near Romaniivka and Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo has been confirmed. Video showing Russian forces in the area of Kurakhove’s elevator has been released. A Ukrainian POW, Zuev Aleksandr Aleksandrovich, described insufficient support and friendly fire incidents, further highlighting command and control issues. Air raid sirens were sounded in Zaporizhzhia, and subsequently lifted. Reports indicate fighting in Dzerzhinsk and Russian advances towards Scherbinovka. A new report indicates that Ukrainian artillery has set a new world record for long-range strikes in active combat (70km). A video shows the assault of Russian forces on a Ukrainian position near Kurakhovo.

In Syria, the complete collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Numerous factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are vying for control, resulting in widespread summary executions and a major refugee crisis. Reports indicate summary executions and war crimes by multiple actors, including the confirmed presence of rape and torture by Russian occupiers. Public executions are reported. Israel's large-scale military strikes, culminating in the complete destruction of the Syrian navy and the elimination of 70-80% of the Assad regime's military capabilities, have dramatically escalated the situation, potentially triggering further regional instability. The operation, codenamed "Operation Shield of Bashan," involved approximately 350 aircraft delivering approximately 320 airstrikes across Syria. Dozens of aircraft and helicopters, radar systems, air defense systems, 15 naval vessels, ballistic missiles (including Scud), cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, drones, and weapons storage facilities and production facilities were destroyed. The operation is ongoing. Russia is reportedly conducting a large-scale withdrawal of its forces from Syria, with some units being evacuated under duress from areas controlled by Kurdish forces. A video shows a long column of surrendering Syrian soldiers. Israel has confirmed the destruction of Syrian naval vessels and intends to defend its security interests while avoiding Syrian internal affairs, but will respond resolutely to hostile acts from the new Syrian government. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, engaging in summary executions and looting. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he approved the airstrikes to prevent the captured equipment from falling into the hands of jihadists. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria, whose stated goal is to prevent the collapse of the Syrian state. Reports indicate increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families over lack of support. Reports that the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. Bashar al-Assad is reported to be in Russia, confirmed by Sergey Ryabkov. Reports indicate increased hunting of Alawites, including high-ranking officials and their relatives. Syrian Islamists claim to have taken control of Deir ez-Zor, ousting the SDF Kurds.

Civilian casualties continue to rise sharply in both Ukraine and Syria, necessitating urgent humanitarian intervention. The deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and private clinics, is a grave concern. Reports indicate a drone strike targeted an IAEA vehicle traveling to the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant; the vehicle's armored plating prevented casualties, though a subsequent strike on an IAEA convoy resulted in significant damage to one vehicle, though no casualties. Another drone strike on an IAEA vehicle en route to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has also been confirmed. Multiple attacks against IAEA vehicles have been reported. Rafael Grossi has condemned the attacks as unacceptable. A further attack on an IAEA vehicle en route to the ZNPP has been reported; personnel were unharmed.

Intense information warfare continues, demanding a robust counter-information effort. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets (MiG-29 and Su-27) to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, reported by U.S. sources. Further, Lukashenko has claimed that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads. Belarus has tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine. Reports also indicate that Russia is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia. Families of Wagner Group mercenaries are complaining about the lack of support from the Russian government for those killed in action. Reports indicate increased satellite activity over Northwest Russia, suggesting potential Ukrainian preparation for strikes on Kursk Oblast. The village of Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces, with video footage showing significant damage and civilian casualties. Reports indicate that Russian forces have inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo. A video shows a sniper duel where a Chechen commander killed two Ukrainian snipers. A Ukrainian drone strike near the border with Russia targeted an Orlan drone, successfully destroying it.

Significant Changes from Previous Reports:

• Confirmed reports of multiple attacks on IAEA vehicles near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Confirmed reports of Russian-North Korean military cooperation, including potential transfer of Russian fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for troops.
• Increased intensity and success of Russian drone warfare in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Kurakhovo, and reported use of new Molniya 2.0 drones with REB resistance.
• Continued deterioration of Ukrainian military morale and leadership, directly impacting operational effectiveness, including reported fratricide.
• Reports of widespread war crimes by all sides, including confirmed instances of rape and torture, in addition to summary executions by multiple actors and public executions.
• Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, resulting in significant civilian casualties, with rescue efforts ongoing. Multiple ballistic missile strikes have further increased casualties and damage. Air raid sirens were sounded in Zaporizhzhia, but the all-clear has been issued.
• Increased Russian long-range missile capacity, potentially reducing reliance on nuclear weapons. A Ukrainian expert disputes claims of mass production of Oreshnik missiles.
• Continued Israeli military action in Syria, resulting in the complete destruction of the Syrian Navy and the significant degradation of the Syrian military.
• Complete collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, resulting in a significant power vacuum and refugee crisis.
• Reports of increased Russian drone attacks using incendiary munitions.
• Reports of Ukrainian forces utilizing drone-delivered anti-tank mines.
• Reports of Ukrainian forces destroying bridges in an attempt to disrupt Russian supply lines.
• Reports of increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families over lack of support and reported unwillingness of Syrian soldiers to fight for Assad.
• Reports that the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia.
• Confirmation of significant protests in Tbilisi, Georgia.
• Public opinion polls in Ukraine show low confidence in Zelenskyy's "Victory Plan."
• India's continued support for Russia, evidenced by a meeting between Putin and India's defense minister.
• A successful US test of a mid-range ballistic missile interception near Guam.
• Canada expanded sanctions against Russian individuals.
• Reports of a successful Ukrainian drone strike using anti-tank mines.
• Confirmed reports of the destruction of an M1 Abrams tank by Russian forces near Kursk. A second M1 Abrams and a Leopard tank were also destroyed in Kursk Oblast.
• Confirmation that Russian forces have taken Zolote, in the Donetsk People's Republic.
• Ongoing efforts to return residents of border regions of Kursk Oblast, Russia, who were taken to Ukraine.
• Increased reports of anti-collaboration messages appearing in Russian-occupied Donetsk.
• Reports of significant financial corruption within the Russian government.
• Reports of increased satellite surveillance over Northwest Russia, potentially indicating Ukrainian preparations for strikes against Russian territory.
• Zelenskyy’s request for 10-12 additional Patriot systems to enhance Ukrainian air defenses.
• Video evidence of Ukrainian tank engagements near Romaniivka.
• Video evidence of Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo.
• Video showing Russian forces in the area of Kurakhove’s elevator.
• Reports of intensified fighting around Kurakhove, with Russian forces crossing the Vovcha River and engaging near the Kurahov thermal power plant, effectively cutting off a key Ukrainian supply route.
• Reports of multiple successful drone strikes by Russian forces near the border of the Kursk region.
• Confirmation that the Russian government is actively engaging in peace negotiations with multiple foreign partners, but insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region.
• Reports from the Polish defense minister stating that the Russian military offensive has significantly accelerated.
• Reports indicating that the Ukrainian military has successfully tested a new missile called “Ruta.”
• Reports of a drone strike targeting an IAEA convoy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A subsequent strike also targeted an IAEA vehicle.
• Confirmed reports of multiple attacks against IAEA vehicles.
• Reports of Russian forces being within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
• Reports indicating that the Ukrainian military is experiencing significant morale issues and internal conflict.
• Reports of a successful Russian counter-attack in the Kurakhove region.
• Reports of a new Russian offensive near the city of Toretsk.
• Reports indicating that Belarus has tested a new missile near its border with Ukraine.
• Reports that Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of Chechnya, has expressed support for Abu Mohammed al-Julani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization.
• Report that the acting governor of the Kursk region has decided not to move his family to the region due to security concerns.
• Report indicating that a significant number of Russian contract soldiers are experiencing issues with contract termination despite medical reasons.
• Report indicating that the Ukrainian government is facing low approval ratings, and that the public is losing confidence in the president's plan for victory.
• Confirmation of the death of a former Wagner Group mercenary who detonated explosives rather than be captured.
• Reports of fighting in Dzerzhinsk and Russian advances towards Scherbinovka.
• Report that Russian forces have raised their flag over the Kurakhove elevator.
• Report that only 2km remain to the outskirts of Pokrovsk after the liberation of the settlement of Shevchenko.
• Report that the US has provided Ukraine with a $20 billion loan, to be repaid from frozen Russian assets.
• Report that Russia is willing to consider another prisoner exchange with the US.
• Report that the acting governor of the Kursk region has decided not to move his family to the region due to security concerns.
• A video depicting a violent encounter between two groups of soldiers.
• Report that the village of Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast has been liberated by Russian forces.
• Video showing a large number of Syrian soldiers surrendering.
• Report of the death of a relative of Bashar al-Assad.
• Report that the Latvian Foreign Minister does not believe Russia will attack NATO.
• Reports of a successful Russian sniper duel against Ukrainian snipers.
• Report of a fundraising effort for Russian forces to acquire Mavic 3 drones.
• Report of a successful Russian assault on a Ukrainian position near Kurakhovo.
• Report of a new world record set by Ukrainian artillery for longest-range strike in active combat.
• Report that Syrian Islamists have taken control of Deir ez-Zor.
• The US State Department approved a potential sale of F-16 equipment and maintenance to Kyiv for $266 million.
• Russian forces liberated Zheltoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
• Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike on Yenakiyevo (DNR).
• Russian forces are continuing operations to neutralize a Ukrainian group that infiltrated the Kursk region. Ukrainian losses for the day in this area exceeded 200 servicemen, 8 armored fighting vehicles, 4 motor vehicles, and 2 mortars.

Summary Recommendations for Command: (Recommendations remain largely the same as the previous report, with added emphasis on the following:)

• Urgent response to the Israeli strikes in Syria and their regional implications: This requires a significant reassessment of regional alliances and potential escalation scenarios.
• Increased focus on counter-drone capabilities: The continued effective use of drones by both sides requires an intensified countermeasure strategy.
• Addressing the collapse of the Assad regime and the subsequent power vacuum: This demands an urgent assessment of the humanitarian situation and potential destabilization of the region.
• Reassessment of Russian capabilities and intentions in light of Oreshnik missile deployment and potential cooperation with North Korea: This requires an urgent strategic assessment and a reconsideration of defensive and offensive strategies.
• Addressing logistical needs in both Ukraine and Syria: The current situation shows continued resource shortages and a dependence on external support.
• Continued emphasis on monitoring and countering war crimes and human rights violations: This will require increased effort and international cooperation.
• Assessment of the implications of the potential transfer of F-16 equipment and maintenance to Ukraine.
• Close monitoring of the situation in the Kursk region.

Conclusion:

The operational environment is exceptionally volatile and unpredictable. The situation in eastern Ukraine and Syria demands a rapid, decisive, and coordinated strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close collaboration among military, intelligence, and humanitarian organizations are paramount to mitigating risks and effectively addressing these unprecedented challenges. The high probability of further escalation necessitates a thorough reassessment of existing strategies and the development of comprehensive contingency plans. The increasingly complex interactions between multiple state and non-state actors demand careful analysis and a flexible, adaptive approach to both military and diplomatic strategies.