Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 10, 2024 (As of 16:18 UTC)

Key Developments:

The situation in Ukraine and Syria continues to be extremely volatile, with significant escalations across multiple fronts. In Ukraine, the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is rapidly advancing, resulting in substantial territorial gains and heavy Ukrainian casualties. The situation around Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk is catastrophic, with reports of potential encirclements and extremely high Ukrainian casualty rates, including desertions and widespread low morale. A Ukrainian military assessment reveals a chaotic battlespace and severe incompetence at the command level, directly contributing to the losses. Forbes analyst David Axe suggests that the Russian 90th Guards Tank Division is creating a wedge to encircle and cut off Pokrovsk. Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia resulted in at least three deaths and sixteen injuries (reports indicate possibly eight more trapped under rubble), and similar attacks resulted in further casualties. A private clinic and a nearby cafe were destroyed in the attacks. Reports indicate widespread corruption within the Ukrainian military hindering efforts to build effective defensive lines. 30 criminal investigations have been opened into alleged embezzlement totaling $483 million. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel, relying on local authorities and infantry brigades for fortifications, with many engineering personnel deployed to frontline positions.

In Syria, the complete collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Numerous factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are vying for control, leading to widespread summary executions and a major refugee crisis. Israel's large-scale military strikes, culminating in the complete destruction of the Syrian navy, have dramatically escalated the situation, potentially triggering further regional instability. Russia is reportedly conducting a large-scale withdrawal of its forces from Syria, with some units being evacuated under duress from areas controlled by Kurdish forces. A video shows a long column of surrendering Syrian soldiers. Israel has confirmed the destruction of Syrian naval vessels. A subsequent report indicates that the Israeli government intends to defend its own security interests while avoiding Syrian internal affairs but states it will respond resolutely to hostile acts from the new Syrian government. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, reportedly engaging in summary executions and looting.

Civilian casualties continue to rise sharply in both Ukraine and Syria, necessitating urgent humanitarian intervention. The deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and private clinics, is a grave concern. Reports indicate widespread summary executions and war crimes by all parties. The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reported the identification of two Russian occupiers accused of kidnapping, torturing, and raping the mother of a Ukrainian law enforcement officer in Izium in July 2022.

Intense information warfare continues, demanding a robust counter-information effort. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. However, Putin has claimed that increased production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons. Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets (MiG-29 and Su-27) to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine. This cooperation was reported from U.S. sources.

Significant Changes from Previous Reports:

• Confirmed reports of Russian-North Korean military cooperation, including potential transfer of Russian fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for troops.
• Increased intensity and success of Russian drone warfare in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Kurakhovo, and reported use of new Molniya 2.0 drones with REB resistance.
• Continued deterioration of Ukrainian military morale and leadership, directly impacting operational effectiveness, with reports of a commander directly attributing failures to incompetent command decisions.
• Reports of widespread war crimes by all sides, including confirmed instances of rape and torture, in addition to summary executions by multiple actors.
• Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, resulting in significant civilian casualties.
• Increased Russian long-range missile capacity, potentially reducing reliance on nuclear weapons.
• Continued Israeli military action in Syria, resulting in the complete destruction of the Syrian Navy.
• Complete collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, resulting in a significant power vacuum and refugee crisis, with the subsequent takeover of Manbij by Turkish-backed rebels.
• Large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
• Reports of increased Russian drone attacks using incendiary munitions.
• Reports of Ukrainian forces utilizing drone-delivered anti-tank mines.
• Reports of Ukrainian forces destroying bridges in an attempt to disrupt Russian supply lines.
• Reports of increased internal issues within Russian forces, including complaints from Wagner Group families over lack of support.
• Reports that the Russian government is actively supporting the relocation of Ukrainian civilians to Russia.

Summary Recommendations for Command:

1. Urgent Reinforcement and Leadership Overhaul in Eastern Ukraine: The rapidly deteriorating situation demands immediate reinforcement of defenses and addressing severe leadership failures. Prioritize logistical improvements, bolstering troop morale, and implementing improved command structures. Address widespread corruption.
2. Comprehensive Regional Stabilization Efforts in Syria: The collapse of the Assad regime necessitates a comprehensive reassessment of regional alliances, immediate humanitarian intervention, proactive measures to mitigate further conflicts, and preparation for large-scale refugee flows.
3. Intensified Counter-Information Warfare Efforts: Allocate increased resources to identify and counter disinformation campaigns.
4. Comprehensive Threat Assessment of Nuclear Weapons in Belarus: Lukashenko’s statements demand a thorough reassessment of the threat level and development of potential responses.
5. Strengthened Counter-Sanctions Measures: Implement a significant effort to identify and disrupt Russian efforts to circumvent sanctions.
6. Urgent Action to Address Ukrainian Mobilization, Morale, and Leadership: Address personnel shortages, low morale, and the critical lack of competent leadership.
7. Preparation for Potential Escalation: Prepare for potential escalations considering increased missile production, Belarusian involvement, heightened activity in the Middle East, and the potential participation of North Korean troops.
8. Addressing the Syrian Refugee Crisis: Implement immediate humanitarian intervention and facilitate international cooperation.
9. Monitoring and Countering War Crimes: Strengthen monitoring and ensure robust international legal responses.
10. Assessment of Russian-North Korean Military Cooperation: Conduct an urgent strategic assessment and address potential supply chains.
11. Increased Focus on Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deployment of additional counter-drone systems and training are critical.
12. Improved Tactical Flexibility and Adaptability: Commanders must adapt to evolving battlefield dynamics, emphasizing mobility and flexibility.
13. Improved Ukrainian Civil Defense and Counter-Sabotage Efforts: Address increased potential for sabotage and internal attacks.

Conclusion:

The operational environment is exceptionally volatile and unpredictable. The situation in eastern Ukraine and Syria demands a rapid, decisive, and coordinated strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close collaboration among military, intelligence, and humanitarian organizations are paramount to mitigating risks and effectively addressing these unprecedented challenges. The high probability of further escalation necessitates a thorough reassessment of existing strategies and the development of comprehensive contingency plans. The severe leadership issues within the Ukrainian military and widespread corruption need immediate attention. The humanitarian crisis resulting from the attacks in Zaporizhzhia and the collapse of the Assad regime requires urgent intervention. The implications of Russian-North Korean military cooperation must be fully analyzed. The increased use of drones by both sides warrants increased counter-drone capabilities. The increase in reported war crimes indicates a need for increased monitoring and prosecution.