Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 10, 2024 (As of 14:18 UTC)

Key Developments:

The situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile, with significant Russian advances reported in eastern Ukraine, particularly near Kurakhovo (Ukrainian forces conducting a mass withdrawal, including surrenders), Toretsk (under severe pressure), and further incursions into Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Confirmed Russian gains include Novotroitskoye, advances near Mala Loknia in Kursk Oblast, Shevchenko (now under Russian control), Novotoytske near Pokrovsk, Plekhovo, Novoivanovka, and further advances northeast of Rovnopole on the Vremyevka front, potentially encircling Ukrainian forces east of the Novotoytske-Bogatyr line and threatening supply lines. Further Russian advances have been reported near Zelenoi Gai and Lozova on the Kupyansk front. Russian forces have advanced to the city council building in Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces withdrawing to the industrial zone. Reports indicate that Russian forces have made advances in numerous locations, including Zheltoe (now under Russian control). Ukrainian forces are reporting heavy losses, with the 150th Separate Marine Battalion suffering extremely high casualties and the 143rd Separate Infantry Brigade suffering over 150 desertions and over 50 missing in action. Reports suggest a potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces east of the Novotoytske-Bogatyr line. The situation in Kurakhovo is critical, with Ukrainian forces withdrawing and all supply routes under Russian control. A Ukrainian POW has released a video detailing a HIMARS strike on a POW facility in Kursk Oblast and implying complicity from the SBU. Videos showing a sniper strike in Kursk Oblast and FAB-500 bomb deployment have emerged. Ukrainian maritime drones continue striking Russian targets, including Black Sea gas platforms. Russian tank units are effectively employing FPV drones. Reports suggest that Ukrainian forces are actively using drones and Western weaponry to target Russian infrastructure, including facilities involved in defense production, energy, and transportation. A reported drone strike in occupied Crimea requires confirmation. Russian forces have taken an outpost near Uspenovka, south of Kurakhovo, and are advancing from Starie Terny towards Dachnoe, impacting the Kurakhovo-Zaporizhzhia highway. A Russian flag has been raised over the Kurakhovo grain elevator. A separate video shows a Russian flag raised over a grain elevator in Roevske, confirming previous reports. Ukrainian forces attacked Yenakiyevo with three HIMARS, resulting in the destruction of several houses and a secondary detonation following a second HIMARS strike. A mass evacuation of civilians is underway in Yenakiieve, focusing on residents of specific streets, escalating to a wider emergency evacuation following a subsequent HIMARS strike on an ammunition depot. Reports indicate continued shelling and explosions in Yenakiieve, with ongoing detonations at the ammunition depot. Reports suggest that Ukrainian forces are deliberately destroying infrastructure during their retreat. Multiple reports of Russian advances near Novotoytske, Pushkino, and other settlements in the region. Reports of shelling in Gorlovka continue, despite no apparent military purpose. A Russian military vehicle was destroyed near Bilohorivka by an FPV drone. Fighting is intense in Toretsk, with both sides reporting advances and claiming control of specific buildings and areas. The situation is so chaotic that even the Ukrainian OTU lacks a full understanding of the Lines of Battle. A Ukrainian spokesperson confirmed this chaotic situation, stating that it's impossible to determine which parts of Toretsk are controlled by which side due to intense close-quarters combat. Reports indicate that the situation around Pokrovsk is rapidly deteriorating, with Russian forces much closer to the city than previously reported. Additional reports indicate that Ukrainian forces launched a failed attack near Liptsy in Kharkiv Oblast. A Ukrainian military source reports that Russian forces have concentrated 150,000 troops across three axes in eastern Ukraine: over 70,000 near Pokrovsk, 35-36,000 near Kurakhovo, and around 40,000 near Vremivka. A video has emerged of a Ukrainian soldier complaining that regular army units abandoned mobilized troops in Kurakhovo without supplies. A prominent Syrian chemist, Dr. Hamdi Ismail Nady, and a theologian, Sheikh Tawfiq al-Buti, have been assassinated in Damascus.

In Syria, the situation is highly volatile following the potential fall of the Assad regime. Muhammad al-Jolani of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a key contender for power. Muhammad al-Basheer has declared himself head of a transitional government, with a projected end date of March 1st. Al Jazeera reports that al-Basheer has close ties to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel military coalition that led the capture of Damascus. The intensity of Israeli operations and reports of atrocities in Syrian military prisons add to regional instability. Reports suggest potential losses of control over Palmyra and Daraa. Israeli airstrikes have targeted numerous military installations, including around Damascus. Pro-Turkish forces, supported by Turkish artillery and drones, launched an offensive on Manbij, initially making gains but subsequently being pushed back by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A video shows a public execution by hanging. Israeli tanks have advanced to within 20km of Damascus. Syrian sources report that Israeli special forces conducted several raids. Israel considers the control of Mount Hermon a significant victory. The Syrian military lost all of its combat aircraft and most of its air defense systems in 48 hours as a result of Israeli airstrikes. US forces conducted airstrikes against over 75 targets in Syria. Israel conducted airstrikes on Syrian airbases throughout the night. Reports indicate that Russia is conducting a large-scale withdrawal using Il-76MD transport aircraft following a route from Khmeimim to Ulyanovsk. Russia is reportedly planning to negotiate with anti-government forces to ensure an unimpeded withdrawal from Syria. A list of names for a new transitional Syrian government has been published in Arab media. A source in Latakia confirmed a large-scale Israeli strike on the port and military facilities in the province, resulting in the complete destruction of the Syrian navy. Reports indicate that prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian, have been killed. A large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers is underway. The Syrian opposition has ordered its forces to withdraw from the cities they captured, replacing them with police and security forces. The Syrian government reports the complete destruction of its Navy by Israeli forces.

Within Ukraine, morale remains low within Ukrainian forces, exacerbated by fraud and unrest against conscription. Protests against conscription are surging in urban centers. Ukraine received $454 million in healthcare funding from Japan, the World Bank, and the URTF. Ukrainian officials are discussing implementing new restrictions on Telegram due to concerns about disinformation and potential espionage. The price of coffins has risen by 74% since the start of the conflict. Ukrainian fixer's fees for securing draft exemptions have risen from 10,000 to 15,000 hryvnias per month. Ukrainian banks are planning to reduce limits on card-to-card transfers, though exceptions will be made for those with verifiable income sources. An attempt to assassinate a family of volunteers in Cherkasy Oblast has been thwarted. The US stated that if Ukraine lowers the conscription age to 18, they will fully train and equip all recruits. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will focus on equipping existing brigades and training personnel instead of lowering the conscription age to 18. A Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel, Eduard Kravchenko, allegedly responsible for border incursions into Kursk Oblast in August, was reportedly eliminated in Sumy Oblast. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant casualties and morale issues, particularly in the Kupiansk area. A group of individuals were arrested in Zhytomyr Oblast for extorting money from a wounded Ukrainian soldier and his wife. Ukraine is reportedly considering lowering the mobilization age from 25 to 20. Reports suggest increased disinformation campaigns by both sides. Reports indicate Russian forces are spreading disinformation about their incursion into Sumy Oblast near the village of Oleksandriia. A civilian in Krasnoyarsk Krai received a three-year prison sentence for damaging recruitment posters and that a businessman in Khakassia is suspected of defrauding a soldier of his apartment and funds. Heavy snow and ice are impacting Kyiv. Electricity grids in Lviv are operating without scheduled outages. A meat processing plant fire in Chuvashia has been extinguished. Russia's Minister of Finance, Anton Siluanov, claims that Western sanctions are weakening the ruble's exchange rate. The Moscow City Court has ruled that the release of former Senator Spiegel from prison due to health concerns is legal. A financial transaction of 5000 hryvnias to a bank account named "RUSORIZ" was observed. Ukraine returned five children from Russian-occupied territory. A reported attack on a military airfield in Saratov was repelled. A 24-year-old student was detained in Moscow's metro and sent to the army despite having serious health issues. Mass roundups of conscripts continue in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other Russian regions, with reports of almost 200 cases of forced conscription. Several images show dogs near military equipment and facilities; one appears to be wearing a tactical vest. Reports from the front indicate widespread low morale among Ukrainian soldiers and a significant lack of drones.

Information warfare continues with numerous Telegram channels disseminating disinformation campaigns. A Russian military veteran and writer was awarded for "conducting information and psychological operations." The "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel reported on the destruction of a Russian soldier by pigs. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video depicting a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system firing a volley of rockets. Videos have emerged showing a sniper strike in Kursk Oblast and FAB-500 bomb deployment. The FSB announced the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns. A video has emerged of a Ukrainian soldier complaining that regular army units abandoned mobilized troops in Kurakhovo without supplies. A Russian military vehicle was destroyed near Bilohorivka by an FPV drone. The body of a soldier, Maxim Chebakov, reported missing, was identified in a morgue. A video depicts the controlled demolition of a building or a munition cache in an urban combat zone. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces have destroyed 1,500 Ukrainian multiple rocket launch systems since the start of the war. A military expert reported that the capture of Shevchenko and Novotroitskoye near Pokrovsk cuts off the supply route to Kurakhovo and deprives Ukraine of access to lithium deposits. There are multiple reports of Russian advances near Novotoytske, Pushkino, and other settlements in the region. Reports of shelling in Gorlovka continue, despite no apparent military purpose.

Civilian casualties continue to rise in Ukraine and Russia. In the past 24 hours, one person was killed and seven injured in the Kherson Oblast due to shelling; 27 settlements and the city of Kherson were targeted. Three civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast and one in Donetsk by drone-dropped explosive devices. Increased civilian casualties are reported in Zaporizhzhia (10 civilians killed, 24 injured), prompting a day of mourning. A Ukrainian priest's humanitarian aid mission was attacked by drones. A refugee from Razdolnoe, DNR, reported that Ukrainian forces are deliberately destroying everything during their retreat. Ukraine has received $454 million in healthcare funding. Five civilians were injured in a rocket strike in Zlatopil, Kharkiv Oblast. An additional eight casualties were reported in a subsequent attack in Zlatopil. A total of eight people were injured in a Russian strike on Zolotopil. Eight people were injured in a Russian strike on Zolotopil, Kharkiv Oblast. A family of volunteers in Cherkasy Oblast survived an assassination attempt using IEDs. Soldiers of the 14th Army Corps are distributing aid supplies to a children's home in Kherson Oblast. A video shows soldiers from the 55th Tuvan Motorized Rifle Brigade transporting casualties. Ten civilians were injured in a Russian strike on Zlatopole, Kharkiv Oblast. An emergency evacuation has been announced in Yenakiieve due to detonation of an ammunition depot. A subsequent strike on Yenakiieve resulted in an increased number of civilian casualties, prompting a broader evacuation order. A further 11 civilians were injured in Zlatopole, Kharkiv Oblast by a rocket strike. Reports suggest some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians residing far from the front lines. A Russian airstrike on Yenakiieve using cluster munitions destroyed several buildings and caused multiple civilian casualties. A further series of explosions in Zaporizhzhia suggest further missile strikes. At least four people were injured in a Russian strike on a private clinic in Zaporizhzhia. The number of injured in Zaporizhzhia has risen to eleven, with one in critical condition; two doctors are among the injured.

Naval activity includes one Russian "Kalibr" carrier present in the Black Sea (no missiles), none in the Azov Sea, and six in the Mediterranean Sea (four carrying up to 41 Kalibr missiles). No Kerch Strait passages were observed due to weather conditions. Russia continues to violate the SOLAS Convention by disabling Automatic Identification Systems. Three Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea near Crimea. Two more Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea near Crimea. Russian soldiers have found a method of circumventing sanctions to purchase US-made chips via the Texas Instruments online store. North Korean troops remain in Kursk Oblast, ready for deployment, although the Pentagon reports no direct participation in hostilities. Moldova is expected to receive drone interception equipment from the EU in 2025. A reported attack on a military airfield in Saratov was repelled. The Investigative Committee of Russia has opened a criminal case against actress Yana Troyanova and she has been arrested in absentia. Azerbaijan has reportedly invited Ukrainian children affected by the war for a vacation. A USAID program proposal for Armenia, focusing on education and culture, was released. Over 1,700 bandits and their accomplices have been detained or neutralized in Russia in 2024. Over 6,000 accounts linked to terrorist financing have been blocked in Russia. 190 terrorist attacks have been prevented in Russia. A New Zealand mercenary was sentenced to 14 years in prison for invading Kursk Oblast. The Kremlin is reporting over 300,000 inquiries for the upcoming direct line with President Putin. The Kremlin is reportedly reporting that women constitute the largest share of inquiries. A proposal has been made in the Russian State Duma to grant Bashar al-Assad Russian citizenship. The Indian Minister of Defence reaffirmed India's continued close ties with Russia despite geopolitical challenges and external pressure. Dmitry Peskov stated that there are no ongoing negotiations with Ukraine, due to Ukraine's refusal to negotiate. Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and stated that Belarus will determine the targets for the Oreshnik missile system and act jointly with Russia if it needs to launch them. He warned that any invasion of Belarus will result in an immediate response, including the use of nuclear weapons. The FSB reported the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns. A Russian citizen was arrested in the Netherlands on suspicion of industrial espionage. The organizers of rallies in Tbilisi plan to disrupt the Georgian presidential elections scheduled for December 14th. The rallies are being coordinated with foreign intelligence agencies. The organizers of the rallies in Tbilisi are planning to assassinate 2-3 people in order to escalate the situation in the country and blame the government. A citizen of New Zealand was sentenced in absentia to 14 years in prison for participating in an incursion into Kursk Oblast. The Russian government reported that the main flag of Ukraine was damaged by wind. Tbilisi has informed Moscow of the arrest of 15 Russian citizens at protests in Tbilisi. A Russian official stated that the Kremlin will not use military force in Syria following the Assad regime's collapse. Russia claims to have successfully repelled a Ukrainian counteroffensive around the town of Orekhovo, advancing towards Novodanilovka. Russian passenger rail service has resumed with China and North Korea.

Significant Changes from Previous Reports:

• Intensified Russian Offensive: The scale and speed of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk, represent a major escalation. Reports indicate potential encirclements and extremely high Ukrainian casualties.
• Collapse of the Assad Regime: The fall of the Assad regime in Syria dramatically alters the regional geopolitical landscape, with Muhammad al-Jolani and Muhammad al-Basheer emerging as key players. This significantly impacts regional stability and the potential for further conflict.
• Increased Israeli Activity: Israel’s large-scale strikes in Syria, including the reported destruction of the Syrian navy, represent a dramatic escalation, threatening regional stability and potentially influencing Russian troop movements.
• Low Morale and Logistical Failures in Ukraine: Widespread reports of low morale, desertions, and logistical failures within Ukrainian forces highlight critical vulnerabilities. The abandonment of mobilized troops in Kurakhovo further underscores these concerns.
• Continued Civilian Casualties: The rising civilian casualty count in Zaporizhzhia, Yenakiieve, and other areas necessitates an urgent humanitarian response and raises serious ethical concerns about the conduct of the war.
• Information Warfare: The intense disinformation campaigns from both sides, coupled with the significant use of Telegram for spreading misinformation and recruiting for sabotage, necessitates robust countermeasures. The arrests of call center employees and a former Georgian defense minister involved in disinformation campaigns underscore the high stakes in this area.
• Internal Border Controls in EU: Reports of potential reintroduction of internal border controls within the EU in 2025, due to internal pressures, raise serious concerns about the stability of the Schengen Area and the potential for decreased cross-border cooperation.
• Confirmed Nuclear Weapons in Belarus: The confirmation of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko’s comments about their potential use significantly escalates the threat level.
• Russian Sanctions Circumvention: The discovery of Russian methods to circumvent sanctions to purchase US-made chips has severe strategic implications.
• Ukraine's Mobilization Challenges: The lack of personnel and Zelenskyy’s stated unwillingness to lower the conscription age, coupled with the high casualty rates and desertions, highlights a desperate situation in the Ukrainian military. Pressure from the US to lower the age to 18 is also a contributing factor to the situation.
• Potential for Increased Long-Range Missile Use: Russia's increased production capacity for Oreshnik missiles and potential deployment of additional Oreshnik missiles in Belarus requires urgent strategic adaptation.

Summary Recommendations for Command:

All previous recommendations remain highly relevant and need immediate attention. The new information necessitates a significant reassessment of strategic priorities. The following areas require particular focus:

1. Immediate Reinforcement of Eastern Ukraine Defenses: The rapid Russian advances demand immediate, significant reinforcement of defenses around Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and other threatened areas. Addressing logistical failures and low morale is critical.
2. Regional Stability in Syria: The fall of the Assad regime requires a complete reassessment of regional alliances, the potential role of HTS, and the response of various international actors.
3. Counter-Information Warfare: The scale of disinformation necessitates a substantial increase in resources to identify and counter both Russian and Ukrainian disinformation campaigns.
4. Analysis of the EU Border Control Situation: The implications of the potential fracturing of the Schengen Area need urgent investigation and potential contingency planning.
5. Assessment of the Nuclear Threat in Belarus: The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus, and Lukashenko's statements, necessitates a thorough reassessment of the threat level and development of potential responses.
6. Counter-Sanctions Measures: The successful circumvention of sanctions requires a significant effort to identify and disrupt Russian efforts.
7. Urgent Addressing of Ukrainian Mobilization Issues: The severe personnel shortages and low morale within the Ukrainian army must be addressed immediately. The potential impact of lowering the conscription age needs a detailed analysis, including its impact on the civilian population.
8. Preparation for Potential Escalation: The situation requires immediate preparations for potential escalations in the region, particularly with the increasing missile production capabilities of Russia, the involvement of Belarus, and the intensified activity in the Middle East.

Conclusion:

The operational environment remains extremely volatile and unpredictable. The rapid deterioration of the situation in eastern Ukraine, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and escalating tensions in other regions necessitate a rapid and decisive strategic response. Continuous monitoring, adaptation, and close coordination between military, intelligence, and humanitarian organizations are critical to navigate these challenges and mitigate the risks. The situation demands a comprehensive reassessment of existing strategies and the development of robust contingency plans to address the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.