Archived operational intelligence briefing
Key Developments:
Intensified Military Engagements in Ukraine: Intense fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, with significant Russian advances near Kurakhovo (Ukrainian forces conducting a mass withdrawal, including surrenders), Toretsk (under severe pressure), and further incursions into Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Russian drone operators are highly effective against isolated Ukrainian units. Confirmed Russian gains include Novotroitskoye, advances near Mala Loknia in Kursk Oblast, Shevchenko (now under Russian control), Novotoytske near Pokrovsk, and further advances northeast of Rovnopole on the Vremyevka front, potentially encircling the area and threatening supply lines. Further Russian advances have been reported near Zelenoi Gai and Lozova on the Kupyansk front. Russian forces have advanced to the city council building in Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces withdrawing to the industrial zone. Reports indicate that Russian forces have made advances in numerous locations. Ukrainian forces are reporting the loss of 1350 troops and 78 pieces of equipment since December 9th. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported 175 combat engagements in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian army assaults on the Kherson axis and 11 assaults in the Kursk region. Russian forces have effectively targeted Ukrainian military positions with TOS-1A systems, resulting in significant losses. The Ukrainian military is improving logistical operations to support sustained engagements. A Ukrainian POW has released a video detailing a HIMARS strike on a POW facility in Kursk Oblast and implying complicity from the SBU. Videos showing a sniper strike in Kursk Oblast and FAB-500 bomb deployment have emerged. Ukrainian maritime drones continue striking Russian targets, including Black Sea gas platforms. Russian tank units are effectively employing FPV drones. Six cities and over twenty villages in the LNR are without water due to a pipeline failure. Three civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast and one in Donetsk by drone-dropped explosive devices. Increased civilian casualties are reported in Zaporizhzhia (10 civilians killed, 24 injured), prompting a day of mourning. A Ukrainian priest's humanitarian aid mission was attacked by drones. A refugee from Razdolnoe, DNR, reported that Ukrainian forces are deliberately destroying everything during their retreat. A new report indicates that Ukrainian forces attacked five districts in Belgorod Oblast with 44 munitions and 20 UAVs, resulting in three injuries. A video shows a Ukrainian soldier complaining that the regular army left Kurakhove, leaving behind mobilized soldiers with no supplies, requesting permission to withdraw. This mirrors the situation in Ugledar. Ukrainian soldiers near Velyka Novosilka are forced to build bunkers with their own funds due to theft and looting in the rear. Russian forces have effectively taken Novoivanovka. Russian forces have also taken control of Plekhovo.
Geopolitical Dynamics: The U.S. continues to pressure Kyiv to lower the conscription age to 18, despite internal Ukrainian unrest and protests. President Zelenskyy firmly rejects this, prioritizing the supply of rockets and the reduction of Russia's military potential over lowering the conscription age. He emphasizes the need for equipment and training over conscripting younger soldiers. China is tightening restrictions on drone part exports to the U.S. and Europe. The ongoing Israeli military operation in Syria, involving tank advances within 20km of Damascus and airstrikes across multiple regions, significantly impacts regional stability; Israeli tanks are now observed 20km from Damascus. Israeli forces attacked over 250 targets in Syria in 48 hours. The EU's new free trade agreement with Mercosur may impact resource availability and food security. The potential transfer of Russian troops from Syria to Ukraine or Africa requires continued monitoring. Germany and France have expressed readiness to cooperate with the new Syrian government. The Wagner Group has issued a statement denouncing the use of their symbols and brand by unofficial entities. Concerns are rising within Ukraine regarding increased reliance on Telegram, leading to discussions of implementing new restrictions due to concerns about disinformation and potential espionage. President Zelenskyy does not use Telegram on his personal phone. Poland has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. The South Korean parliament has initiated an investigation into the declaration of martial law, focusing on potential mutiny by President Yoon Suk Yeol. A German citizen with Russian citizenship was arrested in Nizhny Novgorod for preparing to sabotage railway tracks, with evidence of communication with Ukrainian intelligence. Another Russian citizen was arrested for planning to blow up railway tracks. A second German citizen with Russian citizenship was also arrested in Nizhny Novgorod for similar activities. The reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility in Kursk Oblast requires further investigation and an assessment of potential retaliatory actions. The US has reportedly engaged over 75 targets in Syria. Reports suggest pro-Assad forces are engaging in public executions, such as the hanging of Sulaiman Hilal Assad, a cousin of the former president. A Ukrainian military veteran and writer was awarded for "conducting information and psychological operations". A meeting between Viktor Orbán, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Mike Pence has been reported. Zelenskyy met with Trump and pressed for security guarantees for Ukraine, highlighting the increased likelihood of a conflict freeze and seeking a NATO invitation. The US is considering removing Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from its terrorist list. The FSB arrested a Russian-German citizen in Nizhny Novgorod for preparing railway sabotage at the behest of Ukrainian intelligence. Reports suggest that Russia may be capable of producing 25 Oreshnik long-range ballistic missiles per month. Reports indicate that Russia is producing 25 Oreshnik missiles per month, adding to their long-range strike capacity. Ukraine received equipment from the EU to counteract drone threats, with an expected delivery date in 2025. Russia has arrested 125 people for corruption in the defense industry and 11 for issues related to defense orders. The FSB reported that they thwarted an attempt by a Russian-German citizen to sabotage a railway line in Nizhny Novgorod, who was allegedly working with Ukrainian intelligence. Russian forces launched an artillery strike on a railway station in Esman, Sumy Oblast. A new museum dedicated to military heroism has opened in Moscow. There are reports that some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians residing far from the front lines. Reports indicate that some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians far from the front lines. A video shows the use of Russian Lancet loitering munitions to target Ukrainian vehicles and personnel. A video shows Russian forces using drones to conduct strikes against Ukrainian positions. A Ukrainian video shows drone strikes on enemy equipment, including fuel supply points and armored personnel carriers.
Syria: The situation in Syria is highly volatile following the potential fall of the Assad regime. Muhammad al-Jolani of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a key contender for power. The intensity of Israeli operations and reports of atrocities in Syrian military prisons add to regional instability. The toppling of Hafez al-Assad's statue in Jaramana highlights rising unrest. Reports suggest potential losses of control over Palmyra and Daraa. Israeli airstrikes have targeted numerous military installations, including around Damascus. Pro-Turkish forces, supported by Turkish artillery and drones, launched an offensive on Manbij, initially making gains but subsequently being pushed back by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A video shows a public execution by hanging. Israeli tanks have advanced to within 20km of Damascus. Syrian sources report that Israeli special forces conducted several raids on abandoned Syrian military bases during the night. There were no reports of resistance from the forces occupying Damascus. Israel considers the control of Mount Hermon a significant victory. The Syrian military lost all of its combat aircraft and most of its air defense systems in 48 hours as a result of Israeli airstrikes. The images show destroyed Syrian military equipment after Israeli airstrikes. US forces conducted airstrikes against over 75 targets in Syria. Israel conducted airstrikes on Syrian airbases throughout the night.
Ukraine Internal Dynamics: Morale remains low within Ukrainian forces, exacerbated by fraud and unrest against conscription. Protests against conscription are surging in urban centers. Ukraine received $454 million in healthcare funding from Japan, the World Bank, and the URTF. Ukrainian officials are discussing implementing new restrictions on Telegram due to concerns about disinformation and potential espionage. The price of coffins has risen by 74% since the start of the conflict. Ukrainian fixer's fees for securing draft exemptions have risen from 10,000 to 15,000 hryvnias per month. A video shows a Ukrainian soldier complaining that the regular army left Kurakhove, leaving behind mobilized soldiers with no supplies, requesting permission to withdraw. This mirrors the situation in Ugledar. Ukrainian soldiers near Velyka Novosilka are forced to build bunkers with their own funds due to theft and looting in the rear. Ukrainian banks are planning to reduce limits on card-to-card transfers, though exceptions will be made for those with verifiable income sources, such as salaried employees and volunteers.
Information Warfare: Numerous Telegram channels, including a purported "Diary of a Paratrooper" with a large user base, necessitate monitoring for disinformation campaigns. Ukrainian officials are discussing implementing new restrictions on Telegram due to concerns about disinformation and potential espionage. A Russian military veteran and writer was awarded for "conducting information and psychological operations." The "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel reported on the destruction of a Russian soldier by pigs. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video depicting a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system firing a volley of rockets. Videos have emerged showing a sniper strike in Kursk Oblast and FAB-500 bomb deployment. The FSB announced the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns.
Civilian Impact: The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine intensifies, with reports of civilian casualties from airstrikes and unexploded ordnance. The return of Ukrainian children from Russia highlights the ongoing impact on civilians. The increased Israeli military presence near Damascus raises civilian safety concerns. Reports indicate increased civilian casualties in Ukraine and Russia. In the past 24 hours, one person was killed and seven injured in the Kherson Oblast due to shelling; 27 settlements and the city of Kherson were targeted. Three civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast and one in Donetsk by drone-dropped explosive devices. Increased civilian casualties are reported in Zaporizhzhia (10 civilians killed, 24 injured), prompting a day of mourning. A Ukrainian priest's humanitarian aid mission was attacked by drones. A refugee from Razdolnoe, DNR, reported that Ukrainian forces are deliberately destroying everything during their retreat. Ukraine has received $454 million in healthcare funding. Five civilians were injured in a rocket strike in Zlatopil, Kharkiv Oblast. An additional eight casualties were reported in a subsequent attack in Zlatopil.
Naval Activity: One Russian "Kalibr" carrier is present in the Black Sea (no missiles), none in the Azov Sea, and six in the Mediterranean Sea (four carrying up to 41 Kalibr missiles). No Kerch Strait passages were observed due to weather conditions. Russia continues to violate the SOLAS Convention by disabling Automatic Identification Systems.
Other: Russian soldiers have found a method of circumventing sanctions to purchase US-made chips via the Texas Instruments online store. North Korean troops remain in Kursk Oblast, ready for deployment, although the Pentagon reports no direct participation in hostilities. Reports indicate that a civilian in Krasnoyarsk Krai received a three-year prison sentence for damaging recruitment posters and that a businessman in Khakassia is suspected of defrauding a soldier of his apartment and funds. Heavy snow and ice are impacting Kyiv. Electricity grids in Lviv are operating without scheduled outages. A meat processing plant fire in Chuvashia has been extinguished. Russia's Minister of Finance, Anton Siluanov, claims that Western sanctions are weakening the ruble's exchange rate. The Moscow City Court has ruled that the release of former Senator Spiegel from prison due to health concerns is legal. A financial transaction of 5000 hryvnias to a bank account named "RUSORIZ" was observed. Ukraine returned five children from Russian-occupied territory. A new report indicates that Russia may be capable of producing 25 Oreshnik long-range ballistic missiles per month. Reports suggest that Russia is producing 25 Oreshnik missiles per month, adding to their long-range strike capacity. Ukraine received equipment from the EU to counteract drone threats, with an expected delivery date in 2025. Russia has arrested 125 people for corruption in the defense industry and 11 for issues related to defense orders. A Ukrainian soldier’s video shows evidence of low morale and neglect among mobilized troops left behind in Kurakhove following the withdrawal of regular army units. The FSB reported that they thwarted an attempt by a Russian-German citizen to sabotage a railway line in Nizhny Novgorod, who was allegedly working with Ukrainian intelligence. A Ukrainian drone strike has reportedly hit a target in occupied Crimea, although Russian sources claim it was a Neptune missile. A Russian missile was shot down over Kursk Oblast. Moldova is expected to receive drone interception equipment from the EU in 2025. A reported attack on a military airfield in the Saratov region was thwarted. The Investigative Committee of Russia has opened a criminal case against actress Yana Troyanova (designated as a foreign agent and included in the list of terrorists and extremists) for inciting hatred, and she has been arrested in absentia. Azerbaijan has reportedly invited Ukrainian children affected by the war for a vacation. A USAID program proposal for Armenia, focusing on education and culture, was released. Over 1,700 bandits and their accomplices have been detained or neutralized in Russia in 2024. Over 6,000 accounts linked to terrorist financing have been blocked in Russia. 190 terrorist attacks have been prevented in Russia.
Summary Recommendations for Command:
Reinforce Defensive Capabilities: Immediate enhancement of defensive postures in Kurakhovo and Toretsk is crucial. Strengthen defenses in areas seeing increased Russian activity in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and around Pokrovsk. Prepare for potential Russian advances in areas such as Zelenoi Gai and Lozova on the Kupyansk front. Enhance counter-drone measures. Address low morale within Ukrainian forces, particularly in Kurakhove, by addressing supply chain failures and providing appropriate support and communication. Increase attention to counter-battery measures. Address widespread reports of theft and looting in Ukrainian rear areas.
Monitor Leadership Changes in Syria: Evaluate the impact of potential power shifts, particularly al-Jolani's influence, on regional stability and adapt strategies accordingly. Closely monitor the situation in Manbij and Turkish involvement. Monitor Israeli operations closely. Monitor the potential impact of HTS being removed from the terrorist list.
Adapt Strategies to Counter UAV and other Threats: Develop and implement comprehensive counter-drone measures, and countermeasures against other weapon systems employed by Russia and Israel. Increase counter-battery measures to address increased Russian artillery strikes. Enhance air and missile defense capabilities to respond to increased Russian long-range missile capabilities. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract increasingly effective Russian use of drones.
Support Humanitarian Efforts: Prioritize minimizing civilian casualties while facilitating humanitarian assistance. Address unexploded ordnance concerns.
Prepare for Potential Troop Movements: Remain vigilant regarding the potential transfer of Russian forces from Syria and assess the impact on operational dynamics, including the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast.
Boost Intelligence Collection Capabilities: Intensify real-time intelligence, including monitoring Israeli operations, increased Russian activity in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, and potential troop redeployment from Syria. Actively monitor and analyze information campaigns, including those from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" channel. Investigate the "RUSORIZ" bank account. Monitor for acts of sabotage within Russia and Ukraine, paying particular attention to potential Ukrainian efforts using online recruiting and targeting critical infrastructure. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract increasingly effective Russian use of drones.
Strengthen Morale and Cohesion in Forces: Address low morale and enhance internal cohesion amidst ongoing pressures. Counter the effects of information warfare. Improve communication and leadership to maintain morale among mobilized troops. Address logistical failures contributing to low morale and abandonment of troops.
Monitor Syrian Dynamics Closely: Evaluate the impact of Syria's deteriorating situation on regional military alignments and resource allocation.
Ensure Mine Clearance Operations: Prioritize mine clearance in liberated territories.
Assess Information Operations: Actively monitor and analyze all sides' information campaigns, identifying and counteracting disinformation. Address concerns regarding the use of Telegram as a vector for disinformation and potential espionage. Identify and disrupt Ukrainian operations using call centers and similar for disinformation and recruitment. Address growing use of disinformation campaigns by both sides.
Address Potential Escalation: Analyze the implications of the reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility and prepare for potential retaliatory actions. Assess the implications of the increased presence of Russian naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea. Assess the impact of China's tightening of drone part exports and the potential increased use of Russian long-range ballistic missiles. Monitor the potential for increased use of long-range ballistic missiles from Russia given their increasing production capability.
Monitor North Korean Troop Presence: Continuously monitor the situation regarding North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast.
Counter Sanctions Circumvention: Investigate and counter methods used by the Russian military to obtain US-made components.
Assess Internal Security Threats: Monitor and address internal security threats, including potential acts of sabotage and anti-war sentiment within Russia. Monitor for potential domestic unrest fueled by rising energy prices. Increase focus on identifying and neutralizing potential sabotage efforts inside Russia.
Monitor Weather Conditions: Account for the impact of severe weather conditions on military operations and civilian populations. Address the water shortages in the LNR. Address the impact of severe weather on troop morale and operational readiness.
Improve Logistical Operations: Address the significant logistical failures contributing to low morale and abandonment of troops, especially in Kurakhove. Address widespread reports of theft and looting in Ukrainian rear areas. Address the potential impact of Ukrainian banks reducing card-to-card transfer limits.
Conclusion:
The operational environment remains highly volatile in Ukraine and Syria, with significant Russian advances, persistent challenges, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. The intensity of Israeli operations in Syria, the reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility, and the increased Russian activity in eastern and northeastern Ukraine necessitate immediate strategic adaptation. Continued monitoring of battlefield developments, geopolitical shifts, humanitarian concerns, and information warfare campaigns are crucial for effective operational success. The potential involvement of North Korean troops and the successful circumvention of sanctions warrants close observation. The emerging reports of internal dissent and acts of sabotage within Russia, as well as rising energy costs, also require careful monitoring and analysis. The impact of severe weather conditions on operations and civilian populations must be factored into all planning. The financial transaction to the "RUSORIZ" account requires further investigation. China's actions regarding drone part exports and the potential deployment of new long-range ballistic missiles require immediate strategic adaptation. The ongoing mobilization issues in Ukraine, including corruption and low morale, require urgent attention and decisive action. The potential loss of Kurakhove highlights the critical need for improved logistical support and internal communication. The increasing effectiveness of Russian and Ukrainian drone warfare requires sustained attention and resource allocation. The arrest of suspected saboteurs highlights the need for enhanced counter-intelligence efforts. The continued reports of atrocities, looting, and internal political strife within Ukraine are significant concerns. The potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces east of the Novotoytske-Bogatyr line is a critical development. The extremely high casualty rate in the 150th Separate Marine Battalion requires urgent attention. The reported drone strike in occupied Crimea needs to be confirmed.
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