Archived operational intelligence briefing
Key Developments:
Intensified Military Engagements in Ukraine: Intense fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, with significant Russian advances near Kurakhovo (Ukrainian forces are conducting a mass withdrawal, including surrenders), Toretsk (under severe pressure), and further incursions into Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Russian drone operators are highly effective against isolated Ukrainian units. Confirmed Russian gains include Novotroitskoye, advances near Mala Loknia in Kursk Oblast, Shevchenko (now under Russian control), Novotoytske near Pokrovsk, and further advances northeast of Rovnopole on the Vremyevka front, potentially encircling the area and threatening supply lines. Ukrainian forces are reporting the loss of 1350 troops and 78 pieces of equipment since December 9th. Further Russian advances have been reported near Zelenoi Gai and Lozova on the Kupyansk front. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported 175 combat engagements in the past 24 hours, with the enemy conducting multiple unsuccessful assaults on Ukrainian positions around several locations in the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Vremyevka directions. Russian forces have reportedly made gains around Novoivanovka and Mala Loknia in Kursk Oblast. Reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicate that Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Bilohorivka, Nove, Siversk, Fedorivka, Kuzmynivka, Druzhkivka and Kostyantynopil. Clashes occurred near Hlyboke and Vovchansk (Kharkiv axis), Lozova and Zahryzove (Kupyansk axis), Hrekivka, Zelenyi Hai, Nadiya, Makiyivka, Torske and Yampolivka (Lyman axis), Chasiv Yar and Orikhovo-Vasylivka (Kramatorsk axis), Toretsk, Scherbynivka and Nelipivka (Toretsk axis), Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Promenya, Dachenske, Chumatske and Shevchenko (Pokrovsk axis), Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Zoria, Dalne, Dachne and Kurakhove (Kurakhivka axis), and Kostyantynopil, Novosilka and near Sukhi Yaly, Storozheve, Neskuchne and Blahodatne (Vremivka axis). Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian army assaults on the Kherson axis and 11 assaults in the Kursk region. A Ukrainian POW has released a video detailing a HIMARS strike on a POW facility in Kursk Oblast and implying complicity from the SBU. Videos showing a sniper strike in Kursk Oblast and FAB-500 bomb deployment have emerged. Ukrainian maritime drones continue striking Russian targets, including Black Sea gas platforms. Russian tank units are effectively employing FPV drones.
Geopolitical Dynamics: The U.S. continues to pressure Kyiv to lower the conscription age to 18, despite internal Ukrainian unrest and protests. President Zelenskyy firmly rejects this, prioritizing the supply of rockets and the reduction of Russia's military potential over lowering the conscription age. He emphasizes the need for equipment and training over conscripting younger soldiers. China is tightening restrictions on drone part exports to the U.S. and Europe. The ongoing Israeli military operation in Syria, involving tank advances within 20km of Damascus and airstrikes across multiple regions, significantly impacts regional stability; Israeli tanks are now observed 20km from Damascus. Israeli forces attacked over 250 targets in Syria in 48 hours. The EU's new free trade agreement with Mercosur may impact resource availability and food security. The potential transfer of Russian troops from Syria to Ukraine or Africa requires continued monitoring. Germany and France have expressed readiness to cooperate with the new Syrian government. The Wagner Group has issued a statement denouncing the use of their symbols and brand by unofficial entities. Concerns are rising within Ukraine regarding increased reliance on Telegram, leading to discussions of implementing new restrictions due to concerns about disinformation and potential espionage. President Zelenskyy does not use Telegram on his personal phone. Poland has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. The South Korean parliament has initiated an investigation into the declaration of martial law, focusing on potential mutiny by President Yoon Suk Yeol. A German citizen with Russian citizenship was arrested in Nizhny Novgorod for preparing to sabotage railway tracks, with evidence of communication with Ukrainian intelligence. Another Russian citizen was arrested for planning to blow up railway tracks.
Syria: The situation in Syria is highly volatile following the potential fall of the Assad regime. Muhammad al-Jolani of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a key contender for power. The intensity of Israeli operations and reports of atrocities in Syrian military prisons add to regional instability. The toppling of Hafez al-Assad's statue in Jaramana highlights rising unrest. Reports suggest potential losses of control over Palmyra and Daraa. Israeli airstrikes have targeted numerous military installations, including around Damascus. Pro-Turkish forces, supported by Turkish artillery and drones, launched an offensive on Manbij, initially making gains but subsequently being pushed back by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A video shows a public execution by hanging. The US has reportedly engaged over 75 targets in Syria. Reports suggest pro-Assad forces are engaging in public executions, such as the hanging of Sulaiman Hilal Assad, a cousin of the former president.
Ukraine Internal Dynamics: Morale remains low within Ukrainian forces, exacerbated by fraud and unrest against conscription. Protests against conscription are surging in urban centers. Ukraine received $454 million in healthcare funding from Japan, the World Bank, and the URTF.
Information Warfare: Numerous Telegram channels, including a purported "Diary of a Paratrooper" with a large user base, necessitate monitoring for disinformation campaigns. Ukrainian officials are discussing implementing new restrictions on Telegram due to concerns about disinformation and potential espionage. A Russian military veteran and writer was awarded for "conducting information and psychological operations." The "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel reported on the destruction of a Russian soldier by pigs.
Civilian Impact: The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine intensifies, with reports of civilian casualties from airstrikes and unexploded ordnance. The return of Ukrainian children from Russia highlights the ongoing impact on civilians. The increased Israeli military presence near Damascus raises civilian safety concerns. Reports indicate increased civilian casualties in Ukraine and Russia. Three civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast and one in Donetsk by drone-dropped explosive devices. Increased civilian casualties are reported in Zaporizhzhia (10 civilians killed, 24 injured), prompting a day of mourning. A Ukrainian priest's humanitarian aid mission was attacked by drones. A refugee from Razdolnoe, DNR, reported that Ukrainian forces are deliberately destroying everything during their retreat. Six cities and over twenty villages in the LNR are without water due to a pipeline failure.
Naval Activity: One Russian "Kalibr" carrier is present in the Black Sea (no missiles), none in the Azov Sea, and six in the Mediterranean Sea (four carrying up to 41 Kalibr missiles). No Kerch Strait passages were observed due to weather conditions. Russia continues to violate the SOLAS Convention by disabling Automatic Identification Systems.
Other: Russian soldiers have found a method of circumventing sanctions to purchase US-made chips via the Texas Instruments online store. North Korean troops remain in Kursk Oblast, ready for deployment, although the Pentagon reports no direct participation in hostilities. Reports indicate that a civilian in Krasnoyarsk Krai received a three-year prison sentence for damaging recruitment posters and that a businessman in Khakassia is suspected of defrauding a soldier of his apartment and funds. Heavy snow and ice are impacting Kyiv. Electricity grids in Lviv are operating without scheduled outages. A meat processing plant fire in Chuvashia has been extinguished. Russia's Minister of Finance, Anton Siluanov, claims that Western sanctions are weakening the ruble's exchange rate. The Moscow City Court has ruled that the release of former Senator Spiegel from prison due to health concerns is legal.
Summary Recommendations for Command:
Reinforce Defensive Capabilities: Immediate enhancement of defensive postures in Kurakhovo and Toretsk is crucial. Strengthen defenses in areas seeing increased Russian activity in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and around Pokrovsk. Prepare for potential Russian advances in areas such as Zelenoi Gai and Lozova on the Kupyansk front. Enhance counter-drone measures.
Monitor Leadership Changes in Syria: Evaluate the impact of potential power shifts, particularly al-Jolani's influence, on regional stability and adapt strategies accordingly. Closely monitor the situation in Manbij and Turkish involvement.
Adapt Strategies to Counter UAV and other Threats: Develop and implement comprehensive counter-drone measures, and countermeasures against other weapon systems employed by Russia and Israel.
Support Humanitarian Efforts: Prioritize minimizing civilian casualties while facilitating humanitarian assistance. Address unexploded ordnance concerns.
Prepare for Potential Troop Movements: Remain vigilant regarding the potential transfer of Russian forces from Syria and assess the impact on operational dynamics, including the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast.
Boost Intelligence Collection Capabilities: Intensify real-time intelligence, including monitoring Israeli operations, increased Russian activity in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, and potential troop redeployment from Syria. Actively monitor and analyze information campaigns, including those from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" channel. Investigate the "RUSORIZ" bank account.
Strengthen Morale and Cohesion in Forces: Address low morale and enhance internal cohesion amidst ongoing pressures. Counter the effects of information warfare.
Monitor Syrian Dynamics Closely: Evaluate the impact of Syria's deteriorating situation on regional military alignments and resource allocation.
Ensure Mine Clearance Operations: Prioritize mine clearance in liberated territories.
Assess Information Operations: Actively monitor and analyze all sides' information campaigns, identifying and counteracting disinformation. Address concerns regarding the use of Telegram as a vector for disinformation and potential espionage.
Address Potential Escalation: Analyze the implications of the reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility and prepare for potential retaliatory actions. Assess the implications of the increased presence of Russian naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea.
Monitor North Korean Troop Presence: Continuously monitor the situation regarding North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast.
Counter Sanctions Circumvention: Investigate and counter methods used by the Russian military to obtain US-made components.
Assess Internal Security Threats: Monitor and address internal security threats, including potential acts of sabotage and anti-war sentiment within Russia. Monitor for potential domestic unrest fueled by rising energy prices. Monitor for acts of sabotage within Russia and Ukraine.
Monitor Weather Conditions: Account for the impact of severe weather conditions on military operations and civilian populations.
Conclusion:
The operational environment remains highly volatile in Ukraine and Syria, with significant Russian advances, persistent challenges, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. The intensity of Israeli operations in Syria, the reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility, and the increased Russian activity in eastern and northeastern Ukraine necessitate immediate strategic adaptation. Continued monitoring of battlefield developments, geopolitical shifts, humanitarian concerns, and information warfare campaigns are crucial for effective operational success. The potential involvement of North Korean troops and the successful circumvention of sanctions warrants close observation. The emerging reports of internal dissent and acts of sabotage within Russia, as well as rising energy costs, also require careful monitoring and analysis. The impact of severe weather conditions on operations and civilian populations must be factored into all planning. The financial transaction to the "RUSORIZ" account requires further investigation.
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