Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 10, 2024 (As of 05:48 UTC)

Key Developments:

1. Military Engagements in Ukraine: Russian forces continue their advances in eastern Ukraine, making notable gains near Kurakhovo (where Ukrainian forces are attempting a mass withdrawal, with reports of small unit withdrawals and surrenders), Toretsk (under immense pressure), and further incursions into Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Russian drone operators are effectively targeting isolated Ukrainian units. Recent Russian gains include Novotroitskoye, advances near Mala Loknia in Kursk Oblast, Shevchenko (now under Russian control) and Novotoytske near Pokrovsk, and further advances northeast of Rovnopole on the Vremyevka front, potentially encircling the area and threatening supply lines. Ukrainian forces are using guided air munitions to respond and are withdrawing from Shevchenko near Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting continues on the Zaporizhzhia front. Reports indicate a significant number of Ukrainian soldiers surrendered in Kurakhovo following a bombardment. The situation in Toretsk remains critical. Three civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast and one in Donetsk by drone-dropped explosive devices. Five Russian civilians died and over 40 were injured last week due to Ukrainian shelling. Russian sapper units are clearing mines in Selidovo. The front is stabilizing north of the Kurakhovo Reservoir. Russian forces are approaching Pokrovsk. Reports suggest increased Russian strike intensity near Petrovsk (Hrekovka) in the LNR, tripled from previous levels. A video purportedly showing a sniper strike on a machine-gun position in Kursk Oblast has emerged, along with another showing FAB-500 bombs being deployed. Ukrainian forces are using maritime drones to strike Russian targets, including surveillance systems on Black Sea gas platforms. Russian forces are reported to be using FPV drones from tank units to effectively target Ukrainian positions.

2. Geopolitical Dynamics: The U.S. continues to pressure Kyiv to lower the conscription age to 18, despite internal Ukrainian unrest and protests. President Zelenskyy has stated that lowering the conscription age is not a priority, emphasizing the need for equipment and training over conscripting younger soldiers. China is tightening restrictions on drone part exports to the U.S. and Europe. The extensive Israeli military operation in Syria, involving tank advances within 20km of Damascus and airstrikes across multiple regions, significantly impacts regional stability. Israeli tanks are now observed 20km from Damascus. The EU's new free trade agreement with Mercosur may impact resource availability and food security. The potential transfer of Russian troops from Syria to Ukraine or Africa requires continued monitoring. Germany and France have expressed readiness to cooperate with the new Syrian government. The Wagner Group has issued a statement denouncing the use of their symbols and brand by unofficial entities. Reports suggest some Telegram channels, including a purported "Diary of a Paratrooper" with a large user base, may be linked to Ukrainian or Russian disinformation campaigns. A Ukrainian digital platform for equipment requests aims to improve logistical efficiency. Concerns are rising within Ukraine regarding increased reliance on Telegram, leading to discussions of implementing new restrictions due to concerns about disinformation and potential espionage. President Zelenskyy does not use Telegram on his personal phone.

3. Syria: The situation in Syria is highly volatile following the potential fall of the Assad regime. Muhammad al-Jolani of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a key contender for power. The intensity of Israeli operations and reports of atrocities in Syrian military prisons add to regional instability. The toppling of Hafez al-Assad's statue in Jaramana highlights rising unrest. Reports suggest potential losses of control over Palmyra and Daraa. Israeli airstrikes have targeted numerous military installations, including around Damascus. Pro-Turkish forces, supported by Turkish artillery and drones (including Akıncı and Bayraktar TB2), launched an offensive on Manbij, initially making gains but subsequently being pushed back by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A video shows a public execution by hanging, indicating a volatile security situation and breakdown of law and order. The U.S. has reportedly engaged over 75 targets in Syria. Reports suggest that pro-Assad forces are engaging in public executions, such as the hanging of Sulaiman Hilal Assad, a cousin of the former president.

4. Ukraine Internal Dynamics: Morale remains low within Ukrainian forces, exacerbated by fraud and unrest against conscription. Protests against conscription are surging in urban centers.

5. Information Warfare: Numerous Telegram channels, including a purported "Diary of a Paratrooper" with a large user base, necessitate monitoring for disinformation campaigns.

6. Civilian Impact: The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine intensifies, with reports of civilian casualties from airstrikes and unexploded ordnance. The return of Ukrainian children from Russia highlights the ongoing impact on civilians. The increased Israeli military presence near Damascus raises civilian safety concerns. Reports indicate increased civilian casualties in Ukraine. A POW facility in Kursk Oblast was reportedly struck by HIMARS, resulting in unknown casualties. A Ukrainian POW has released a video detailing this attack and implying complicity from the SBU. Increased civilian casualties are reported in Zaporizhzhia, with 10 civilians killed and 24 injured in recent Russian attacks, prompting a day of mourning. A Ukrainian priest's humanitarian aid mission was attacked by drones.

7. Naval Activity: One Russian "Kalibr" carrier is present in the Black Sea (no missiles), none in the Azov Sea, and six in the Mediterranean Sea (four carrying up to 41 Kalibr missiles). No Kerch Strait passages were observed due to weather conditions. Russia continues to violate the SOLAS Convention by disabling Automatic Identification Systems.

8. Other: Russian soldiers have found a method of circumventing sanctions to purchase US-made chips via the Texas Instruments online store. North Korean troops remain in Kursk Oblast, ready for deployment, although the Pentagon reports no direct participation in hostilities. Reports indicate that a civilian in Krasnoyarsk Krai received a three-year prison sentence for damaging recruitment posters and that a businessman in Khakassia is suspected of defrauding a soldier of his apartment and funds. In South Korea, the police are investigating members of the cabinet, including the Prime Minister, due to the declaration of martial law.

Summary Recommendations for Command:

1. Reinforce Defensive Capabilities: Immediate enhancement of defensive postures in Kurakhovo and Toretsk is crucial. Strengthen defenses in areas seeing increased Russian activity in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and around Pokrovsk.

2. Monitor Leadership Changes in Syria: Evaluate the impact of potential power shifts, particularly al-Jolani's influence, on regional stability and adapt strategies accordingly. Closely monitor the situation in Manbij and Turkish involvement.

3. Adapt Strategies to Counter UAV and other Threats: Develop and implement comprehensive counter-drone measures, and countermeasures against other weapon systems employed by Russia and Israel.

4. Support Humanitarian Efforts: Prioritize minimizing civilian casualties while facilitating humanitarian assistance. Address unexploded ordnance concerns.

5. Prepare for Potential Troop Movements: Remain vigilant regarding the potential transfer of Russian forces from Syria and assess the impact on operational dynamics, including the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast.

6. Boost Intelligence Collection Capabilities: Intensify real-time intelligence, including monitoring Israeli operations, increased Russian activity in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, and potential troop redeployment from Syria. Actively monitor and analyze information campaigns, including those from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" channel.

7. Strengthen Morale and Cohesion in Forces: Address low morale and enhance internal cohesion amidst ongoing pressures. Counter the effects of information warfare.

8. Monitor Syrian Dynamics Closely: Evaluate the impact of Syria's deteriorating situation on regional military alignments and resource allocation.

9. Ensure Mine Clearance Operations: Prioritize mine clearance in liberated territories.

10. Assess Information Operations: Actively monitor and analyze all sides' information campaigns, identifying and counteracting disinformation. Address concerns regarding the use of Telegram as a vector for disinformation and potential espionage.

11. Address Potential Escalation: Analyze the implications of the reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility and prepare for potential retaliatory actions. Assess the implications of the increased presence of Russian naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea.

12. Monitor North Korean Troop Presence: Continuously monitor the situation regarding North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast.

13. Counter Sanctions Circumvention: Investigate and counter methods used by the Russian military to obtain US-made components.

14. Assess Internal Security Threats: Monitor and address internal security threats, including potential acts of sabotage and anti-war sentiment within Russia.

Conclusion:

The operational environment remains highly volatile in Ukraine and Syria, with significant Russian advances, persistent challenges, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. The intensity of Israeli operations in Syria, the reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility, and the increased Russian activity in eastern and northeastern Ukraine necessitate immediate strategic adaptation. Continued monitoring of battlefield developments, geopolitical shifts, humanitarian concerns, and information warfare campaigns are crucial for effective operational success. The potential involvement of North Korean troops and the successful circumvention of sanctions warrants close observation. The emerging reports of internal dissent and acts of sabotage within Russia also require careful monitoring and analysis.