Archived operational intelligence briefing
Military Engagements in Ukraine: Russian forces continue their advances in eastern Ukraine, notably near Kurakhovo (where Ukrainian forces are attempting a mass withdrawal), Toretsk (under immense pressure), and further incursions into Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Russian drone operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade are effectively targeting isolated Ukrainian units, while Ukrainian drone operations are neutralizing some Russian advances. Russian sapper units are clearing mines in Selidovo. Recent Russian gains include Novotroitskoye, advances near Mala Loknia in Kursk Oblast, Shevchenko and Novotoytske near Pokrovsk, and further advances north of Rovnopole on the Vremyevka front. Reports indicate that a significant number of Ukrainian soldiers in Kurakhovo surrendered following a bombardment by Russian forces using Uragan multiple rocket launchers. The situation in Toretsk remains critical, with Russian forces reportedly capturing a central defense point and advancing deeper into Shcherbinovka. Ukrainian forces are using guided air munitions to respond to assaults in the east. Over 139 Ukrainian casualties were reported on December 9th. Ukrainian tanks remain vulnerable to FPV drones. The Russian military is using tactics and operational knowledge gained from Syria in Ukraine. Russian forces are approaching Pokrovsk, having reportedly captured Shevchenko and are continuing the offensive near Pushkino and Dachensky. The front is stabilizing north of the Kurakhovo Reservoir. Advances are being made northeast of Rovnopole, potentially encircling the Vremyevka area from the west, threatening the enemy's supply line. Heavy fighting continues on the Zaporizhzhia front. Three civilians were injured in Belgorod Oblast and one in Donetsk by drone-dropped explosive devices. Five Russian civilians died and over 40 were injured last week due to Ukrainian shelling.
Geopolitical Dynamics: The U.S. continues to pressure Kyiv to lower the conscription age to 18, despite internal Ukrainian unrest and protests. China is tightening restrictions on drone part exports to the U.S. and Europe. The extensive Israeli military operation in Syria, involving tank advances towards Damascus (within 20km) and airstrikes across multiple regions (including the destruction of Aérospatiale Gazelle SA.342L helicopters), significantly impacts regional stability. The EU's new free trade agreement with Mercosur may impact resource availability and food security. The potential transfer of Russian troops from Syria to Ukraine or Africa requires continued monitoring. Germany and France have expressed readiness to cooperate with the new Syrian government. The Wagner Group has issued a statement denouncing the use of their symbols and brand by unofficial entities. Reports suggest some Telegram channels, including a purported "Diary of a Paratrooper" with a large user base, may be linked to Ukrainian or Russian disinformation campaigns. A Ukrainian digital platform for equipment requests aims to improve logistical efficiency.
Syria: The situation in Syria is highly volatile following the potential fall of the Assad regime. Muhammad al-Jolani of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a key contender for power. The intensity of Israeli operations and reports of atrocities in Syrian military prisons add to regional instability. The toppling of Hafez al-Assad's statue in Jaramana highlights rising unrest. Reports suggest potential losses of control over Palmyra and Daraa. Israeli airstrikes have targeted numerous military installations, including around Damascus.
Ukraine Internal Dynamics: Morale remains low within Ukrainian forces, exacerbated by fraud and unrest against conscription. Protests against conscription are surging in urban centers.
Information Warfare: Numerous Telegram channels, including a purported "Diary of a Paratrooper" with a large user base, necessitate monitoring for disinformation campaigns.
Civilian Impact: The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine intensifies, with reports of civilian casualties from airstrikes and unexploded ordnance. The return of Ukrainian children from Russia highlights the ongoing impact on civilians. The increased Israeli military presence near Damascus raises civilian safety concerns. Reports indicate increased civilian casualties in Ukraine. A POW facility in Kursk Oblast was reportedly struck by HIMARS, resulting in unknown casualties.
Naval Activity: One Russian "Kalibr" carrier is present in the Black Sea (no missiles), none in the Azov Sea, and six in the Mediterranean Sea (four carrying up to 41 Kalibr missiles). No Kerch Strait passages were observed due to weather conditions. Russia continues to violate the SOLAS Convention by disabling Automatic Identification Systems. North Korean troops remain in Kursk Oblast, ready for deployment.
Reinforce Defensive Capabilities: Immediate enhancement of defensive postures in Kurakhovo and Toretsk is crucial. Strengthen defenses in areas seeing increased Russian activity in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and around Pokrovsk.
Monitor Leadership Changes in Syria: Evaluate the impact of potential power shifts, particularly al-Jolani's influence, on regional stability and adapt strategies accordingly.
Adapt Strategies to Counter UAV and other Threats: Develop and implement comprehensive counter-drone measures, and countermeasures against other weapon systems employed by Russia and Israel.
Support Humanitarian Efforts: Prioritize minimizing civilian casualties while facilitating humanitarian assistance. Address unexploded ordnance concerns.
Prepare for Potential Troop Movements: Remain vigilant regarding the potential transfer of Russian forces from Syria and assess the impact on operational dynamics, including the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast.
Boost Intelligence Collection Capabilities: Intensify real-time intelligence, including monitoring Israeli operations, increased Russian activity in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, and potential troop redeployment from Syria. Actively monitor and analyze information campaigns, including those from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" channel.
Strengthen Morale and Cohesion in Forces: Address low morale and enhance internal cohesion amidst ongoing pressures. Counter the effects of information warfare.
Monitor Syrian Dynamics Closely: Evaluate the impact of Syria's deteriorating situation on regional military alignments and resource allocation.
Ensure Mine Clearance Operations: Prioritize mine clearance in liberated territories.
Assess Information Operations: Actively monitor and analyze all sides' information campaigns, identifying and counteracting disinformation.
Address Potential Escalation: Analyze the implications of the reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility and prepare for potential retaliatory actions. Assess the implications of the increasing presence of Russian naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea.
Monitor North Korean Troop Presence: Continuously monitor the situation regarding North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast.
The operational environment remains highly volatile in Ukraine and Syria, with significant Russian advances, persistent challenges, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. The intensity of Israeli operations in Syria, the reported HIMARS strike on a POW facility, and the increased Russian activity in eastern and northeastern Ukraine necessitate immediate strategic adaptation. Continued monitoring of battlefield developments, geopolitical shifts, humanitarian concerns, and information warfare campaigns are crucial for effective operational success. The potential involvement of North Korean troops warrants close observation.
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