Updated Operational Situation Overview - November 14, 2024
Key Developments and Insights:
Kupiansk and Eastern Front:
Conflicting reports continue regarding control of Kupiansk. The Russian military claims advances in the region, specifically asserting control over Voznesenka, while Ukrainian authorities maintain that Kupiansk is secure and that their forces have thwarted Russian attempts to penetrate deeper into the town. Ukrainian StratCom has confirmed that Kupiansk remains under full control of their forces, countering Russian narratives.
Military expert Pavel Narozhnyi has noted serious Russian activity aimed at encircling Ukrainian positions, with the intent to cut off supply routes to Sloviansk from the north.
Civilian Casualties:
Increased civilian casualties reported in Gorlovka, including injuries from shelling. Recent attacks resulted in at least seven injuries, with some victims being critically hurt. In Kryvyi Rih, four civilian deaths were previously reported from a missile strike, increasing the humanitarian crisis linked to military actions.
Military Technology and Operations:
Both sides are actively using advanced drone technology. Reports highlight the successful strikes executed by Ukrainian FPV (First Person View) drones against Russian armored vehicles, including a notable incident involving the destruction of a T-90M tank.
In a recent engagement, Russian FPV drones have targeted Ukrainian positions, indicating a significant escalation in drone warfare tactics.
Morale and Public Sentiment:
There is a notable decline in public support for military efforts in Ukraine, with significant decreases in donations to military support funds. This decline is attributed to worsening economic conditions and war fatigue among the population.
Major shifts in the public perception towards military actions may pose challenges for troop morale and recruitment.
International Dynamics and Political Changes:
Statements from Ukrainian officials indicate possible adjustments in negotiation strategies due to political changes in the U.S. under President Trump, focusing discussions on security guarantees rather than territorial disputes. There are indications that Ukraine might consider a more flexible approach to territorial claims if adequately secured against future aggressions.
South Korea is reconsidering its military aid strategy, with a reported hesitation to supply arms to Ukraine, influenced by the U.S. political shift and public sentiment regarding the conflict.
Enforcement and Investigations:
Ukrainian authorities are intensifying investigations into corruption and the evasion of military mobilization, further stressing internal military preparedness and civil-military relations.
Current Military Activities:
Russian forces reported successful operations in various regions, but Ukrainian countermeasures are showing efficacy on the battlefield, particularly in urban engagements around Kupiansk and Gorlovka. The Ukrainian military has carried out successful drone strikes against enemy backlines, targeting logistics and personnel.
Emerging Threats:
The usage of chemical weapons by some drone operators, dubbed "Baba Yaga," has raised ethical concerns and risks legal repercussions in military engagements.
Resource Mobilization and Training:
The implementation of a longer 45-day basic training program for airborne troops aims to enhance combat readiness, incorporating elements like engineering skills, anti-drone tactics, and medical preparedness in response to the evolving battlefield landscape.
Summary of Costs and Support:
The Russian government has increased compensation for injured soldiers, reflecting an effort to boost morale and support for troops engaged in combat. The increase in support payments isn't just a financial decision but also a strategic move to maintain troop morale amidst ongoing heavy casualties reported on both sides.
Conclusion:
The operational environment remains fluctuating and complex, with significant military actions in Kupiansk, Gorlovka, and surrounding areas. Civilians remain heavily impacted by the ongoing conflict, causing humanitarian concerns that could influence military and political strategies. As international dynamics shift and public sentiments evolve, commanders must navigate these intricate factors while planning and executing military operations.
