STRATEGIC STRIKE: SBU HITS 100TH GRAU ARSENAL (1116Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Satellite imagery confirms a successful Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) strike on the 100th Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) in the Neysky district, Kostroma Oblast. This represents a significant degradation of Russian deep-rear logistics.
INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS: KYIV HEATING FAILURE (1109Z, Оперативний ЗСУ/Зеленський, HIGH): 926 buildings on Kyiv’s Left Bank remain without heating following "City-Kill" strikes. This confirms the operational impact of Russian targeting of energy infrastructure during freezing temperatures.
CASUALTY UPDATE: ODESA STRIKES (1128Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): The number of injured from Russian strikes on Odesa has risen to 35.
AIR THREAT: WESTERN UKRAINE (1117Z, Повітряні Сили, HIGH): Russian UAVs (Shahed/Geran) have transitioned from Rivne Oblast toward Lviv Oblast (specifically Novyi Yarychiv), indicating a broadening of the current strike wave.
INTERNAL SECURITY: CHERKASY INCIDENT (1104Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM): A suspect (claimed by pro-RU sources to be a UA Spetsnaz member or deserter) opened fire during an arrest attempt in Cherkasy Oblast, resulting in 4 police fatalities. RU sources are heavily exploiting this for propaganda. [UNCONFIRMED: Status of suspect as UA military]
DIPLOMATIC SHIFT: EU-INDIA TRADE DEAL (1125Z, ASTRA, HIGH): The EU and India have finalized a historic Free Trade Agreement, potentially signaling further long-term economic isolation for Russia.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity Russian "City-Kill" campaign targeting civilian morale and energy stability, countered by Ukrainian deep-strike operations against Russian strategic logistics.
Kyiv/Central Sector: The situation in the capital is critical regarding sustainment. The loss of heating to nearly 1,000 buildings on the Left Bank (1109Z) coincides with ongoing UAV threats.
Donbas (Seversk Salient): New reports of Russian activity near Nikiforovka (1107Z) suggest an attempt to bracket Seversk from the south, complicating the Ukrainian defensive geometry in the Donetsk Oblast.
Southern Sector: Fighting continues near Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia Front). Ukrainian units (68th Jaeger Bde) are actively targeting Russian drone operators (1117Z).
Weather: Heavy snowfall is confirmed in Moscow (1113Z) and continues to impact Odesa. This may degrade Russian aerial ISR and ground mobility in the 12-24h window.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: Russia continues to prioritize "City-Kill" strikes. The move of UAVs toward Lviv (1117Z) suggests an intent to stretch Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) away from the front and Kyiv.
Tactical Changes: In the Zaporizhzhia sector, Russia is employing the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade for equipment destruction (1130Z), indicating the use of high-tier units for localized tactical attrition.
Logistics & Sustainment: The strike on the 100th GRAU Arsenal (1116Z) will likely cause a localized shortage of artillery and missile munitions for Russian units in the Central/Eastern groupings in the 7-14 day window.
C2 & Internal Stability: Conflicting reports from the State Duma regarding the blocking of Telegram (1103Z, 1107Z, 1120Z) suggest internal friction or a "trial balloon" operation to gauge public/military reaction to censorship.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Force Posture: The 68th Jaeger Brigade and other UAF units are maintaining a high kill-rate against Russian technical assets and drone crews in the East.
Operational Success: The SBU’s ability to conduct long-range strikes against hardened GRAU arsenals (1116Z) demonstrates continued reach despite Russian AD repositioning.
Internal Security: The Cherkasy shootout (1110Z) represents a significant internal security breach. Whether the perpetrator was a deserter or a criminal, the loss of four police personnel impacts local stability and provides a propaganda opening for the adversary.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Disinformation Surge: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker, Colonelcassad) are framing the Cherkasy incident (1129Z) as a symptom of UAF collapse and "liquidation of Spetsnaz." This is a high-priority RU narrative aimed at undermining Ukrainian mobilization and morale.
Negotiation Narratives: Russian Ombudsman Moskalkova's comments on POW exchange talks (1107Z) may be a strategic distraction intended to project a willingness to negotiate while infrastructure strikes continue.
Psychological Operations: DShV (Airborne Assault Forces) released recruitment/propaganda videos (1103Z) to counter RU narratives and bolster domestic mobilization.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will continue UAV pressure on Lviv and Western Ukraine to force UAF to deplete AD interceptors. Localized ground assaults will intensify in the Seversk-Nikiforovka axis to exploit the salient.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the heating crisis in Kyiv, Russia launches a massed missile/UAV "double-tap" strike on the remaining Left Bank energy hubs to trigger a humanitarian evacuation/panic.
Timeline: The UAV flight path toward Lviv (1117Z) suggests kinetic activity in Western Ukraine within the next 2-4 hours.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of the suspect in the Cherkasy shooting (1110Z). Confirm if the individual has active-duty military links or was a civilian criminal.
[HIGH] Assess the damage extent at the 100th GRAU Arsenal. Determine if specific munitions types (e.g., North Korean KN-23s or Iranian drones) were stored there.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian 14th Spetsnaz movements in the Zaporizhzhia sector (1130Z) for signs of a larger offensive push toward Orikhiv.
